NL West FIP and Pitching xWARs by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I am going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

Methodology
For each team, slots were broken down in 32 starts per slot (for a total of 160 games).  Pitchers were ordered by FIP, lowest to highest.  They were then broken up into slots.  Their FIPs were weighted by inning allotment and a weighted average was calculated for each slot.

An example:

Chris Tillman had an FIP of 3.99 over 11 starts, Zach Britton had an FIP of 4.00 over 28 starts, and Jeremy Guthrie had an FIP of 4.51 over 32 starts.  For the purpose of this study, Tillman's 11 starts all counted for the Orioles slot 1 along with 21 of Britton's 28 starts.  The remaining 7 starts were put into the slot 2 position with 25 of Jeremy Guthrie's starts.  When a pitcher's starts are split between multiple slots, it is assumed that their FIP is equal for every inning thrown and that their IP are equal for every start.

NL West

FIP

The Diamondbacks look pretty awful here, but part of it has to do with how home run friendly their park is.

Below is the NL Central FIP by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Diamondbacks	3.22	3.28	3.79	4.68	5.88
Dodgers	2.47	3.65	3.82	4.07	4.34
Giants	2.67	2.90	3.15	3.68	4.67
Padres	3.16	3.56	4.01	4.10	4.21
Rockies	3.41	3.94	4.30	4.72	5.79

xWAR

The following graph is simply a predicted fWAR value using only FIP and IP as described in this post.  It serves as an approximation of fWAR worth.

Below is the NL Central xWAR by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Diamondbacks	4.42	4.31	2.45	0.70	-2.90
Dodgers	6.48	3.09	2.44	1.62	1.15
Giants	5.35	5.17	4.49	2.99	-0.13
Padres	4.23	2.95	2.02	1.85	1.36
Rockies	3.22	2.08	1.39	0.22	-2.54

NL Central FIP and Pitching xWARs by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I am going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

Methodology
For each team, slots were broken down in 32 starts per slot (for a total of 160 games).  Pitchers were ordered by FIP, lowest to highest.  They were then broken up into slots.  Their FIPs were weighted by inning allotment and a weighted average was calculated for each slot.

An example:

Chris Tillman had an FIP of 3.99 over 11 starts, Zach Britton had an FIP of 4.00 over 28 starts, and Jeremy Guthrie had an FIP of 4.51 over 32 starts.  For the purpose of this study, Tillman's 11 starts all counted for the Orioles slot 1 along with 21 of Britton's 28 starts.  The remaining 7 starts were put into the slot 2 position with 25 of Jeremy Guthrie's starts.  When a pitcher's starts are split between multiple slots, it is assumed that their FIP is equal for every inning thrown and that their IP are equal for every start.

NL Central

FIP

The two things that strike me here is that (1) there are basically three very good pitchers in this division and there are on three separate teams: Matt Garza, Zack Greinke, and Chris Carpenter; and (2) that the Astros front end is as underwhelming as the Orioles and that the Reds backend is as catastrophic as the Orioles.  The backend of the Reds' rotation certainly did not help matters, but it alone was not responsible for them missing out of the playoffs.

Below is the NL Central FIP by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Brewers	3.06	3.60	3.74	4.05	4.28
Cards	3.06	3.22	3.64	4.14	4.41
Cubs	2.97	3.89	4.23	4.77	5.44
Astros	3.99	4.15	4.24	4.55	4.79
Pirates	3.77	3.81	4.36	4.72	5.38
Reds	3.58	4.09	4.18	4.95	5.82

xWAR

The following graph is simply a predicted fWAR value using only FIP and IP as described in this post.  It serves as an approximation of fWAR worth.

The NL Central five slot pitchers have as much trouble as the AL East pitchers.  However, it differs from the AL East in that there is not much talent here.

Below is the NL Central xWAR by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Brewers	4.39	3.18	2.72	1.71	1.68
Cards	5.01	4.00	3.09	1.60	0.97
Cubs	4.75	2.05	1.05	0.24	-1.76
Astros	1.99	1.96	1.84	0.50	-0.28
Pirates	2.55	2.45	1.09	0.03	-1.81
Reds	3.22	1.74	1.66	-0.50	-2.11

NL East FIP and Pitching xWARs by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I am going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

AL Slot Summary

Methodology
For each team, slots were broken down in 32 starts per slot (for a total of 160 games).  Pitchers were ordered by FIP, lowest to highest.  They were then broken up into slots.  Their FIPs were weighted by inning allotment and a weighted average was calculated for each slot.

An example:

Chris Tillman had an FIP of 3.99 over 11 starts, Zach Britton had an FIP of 4.00 over 28 starts, and Jeremy Guthrie had an FIP of 4.51 over 32 starts.  For the purpose of this study, Tillman's 11 starts all counted for the Orioles slot 1 along with 21 of Britton's 28 starts.  The remaining 7 starts were put into the slot 2 position with 25 of Jeremy Guthrie's starts.  When a pitcher's starts are split between multiple slots, it is assumed that their FIP is equal for every inning thrown and that their IP are equal for every start.

NL East

FIP

The Phillies pitching staff was quite amazing.

Below is the NL East FIP by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Braves	3.23	3.39	3.60	3.70	4.26
Marlins	3.14	3.49	3.56	4.08	5.26
Mets	3.35	3.78	4.01	4.44	4.57
Nationals	2.93	3.78	4.05	4.32	4.61
Phillies	2.20	2.60	3.01	3.32	4.00

xWAR

The following graph is simply a predicted fWAR value using only FIP and IP as described in this post.  It serves as an approximation of fWAR worth.

This graph shows even more clearly how remarkable the Phillies rotation was last season.  Keep in mind here that Roy Oswalt's numbers are split evenly between the 4 and 5 slots.

Below is the NL East xWAR by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Braves	3.58	3.69	3.03	2.38	1.52
Marlins	4.30	3.42	3.15	1.72	-1.82
Mets	3.56	2.94	2.01	0.92	0.55
Nationals	4.53	2.47	1.87	0.99	0.23
Phillies	7.29	6.32	5.03	3.65	1.69

AL West FIP and Pitching xWARs by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I plan on going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

Methodology
For each team, slots were broken down in 32 starts per slot (for a total of 160 games).  Pitchers were ordered by FIP, lowest to highest.  They were then broken up into slots.  Their FIPs were weighted by inning allotment and a weighted average was calculated for each slot.

An example:

Chris Tillman had an FIP of 3.99 over 11 starts, Zach Britton had an FIP of 4.00 over 28 starts, and Jeremy Guthrie had an FIP of 4.51 over 32 starts.  For the purpose of this study, Tillman's 11 starts all counted for the Orioles slot 1 along with 21 of Britton's 28 starts.  The remaining 7 starts were put into the slot 2 position with 25 of Jeremy Guthrie's starts.  When a pitcher's starts are split between multiple slots, it is assumed that their FIP is equal for every inning thrown and that their IP are equal for every start.

AL West

FIP

The AL West had two things last year: (1) several good pitchers and (2) home runs (which FIP uses) that are suppressed by several parks.

Below is the AL West FIP by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Angels	2.99	3.18	3.75	4.22	4.91
Athletics	2.93	3.64	4.01	4.18	4.49
Mariners	3.13	3.30	3.54	4.07	5.13
Rangers	3.24	3.50	3.71	3.99	4.54

xWAR

The following graph is simply a predicted fWAR value using only FIP and IP as described in this post.  It serves as an approximation of fWAR worth.

It seems my original idea about many 5 slot pitchers have negative values has not panned out as we go from division to division.  In the AL West not a single team had a negative xWAR.

Below is the xWAR AL West  by Slot Table

	1	2	3	4	5
Angels	5.89	5.43	4.07	2.56	0.47
Athletics	5.75	3.98	3.05	2.55	1.59
Mariners	5.62	4.85	4.00	2.94	0.13
Rangers	5.06	4.21	3.53	3.06	1.79

Comparison to Orioles
The Orioles first and second slot pitching could work as these teams' fifth slot pitching.  This is pretty remarkable.

AL Central FIP and Pitching xWARs by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I plan on going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

Methodology
For each team, slots were broken down in 32 starts per slot (for a total of 160 games).  Pitchers were ordered by FIP, lowest to highest.  They were then broken up into slots.  Their FIPs were weighted by inning allotment and a weighted average was calculated for each slot.

An example:

Chris Tillman had an FIP of 3.99 over 11 starts, Zach Britton had an FIP of 4.00 over 28 starts, and Jeremy Guthrie had an FIP of 4.51 over 32 starts.  For the purpose of this study, Tillman's 11 starts all counted for the Orioles slot 1 along with 21 of Britton's 28 starts.  The remaining 7 starts were put into the slot 2 position with 25 of Jeremy Guthrie's starts.  When a pitcher's starts are split between multiple slots, it is assumed that their FIP is equal for every inning thrown and that their IP are equal for every start.

AL Central

FIP

What I find exceptionally interesting here is how good the White Sox pitching was last year.  No one was Verlander-esque on the team, but the FIP of the ChiSox 5 slot (predominantly, Mark Buerhle) was right in line with the best non-Sox 3 slot.  Although the ChiSox pitching was so incredible, they finished with 79 wins due to an anemic offense.  Adam Dunn, Juan Pierre, and Alex Rios all had negative WAR and had almost 2000 plate appearances.  What a waste of a rotation.

Below is the AL Central FIP by Slot Table.

	1	2	3	4	5
Indians	3.28	3.93	4.26	4.39	4.89
Royals	3.73	4.17	4.33	4.47	5.21
Tigers	2.85	3.44	4.08	4.28	5.14
Twins	3.64	4.10	4.23	4.50	4.78
White Sox	3.29	3.52	3.74	3.85	4.12

xWAR

The following graph is simply a predicted fWAR value using only FIP and IP as described in this post.  It serves as an approximation of fWAR worth.

Again, what the ChiSox did last year throwing the ball was impressive.  Injuries and trading Edwin Jackson (who recorded the majority of the 1 slot outings) did little to affect the quality of the rotation.

Below is the xWAR AL Central  by Slot Table

	1	2	3	4	5
Indians	4.94	2.78	2.48	1.98	0.70
Royals	3.63	2.60	2.37	1.52	-0.32
Tigers	6.33	4.39	2.72	2.20	0.02
Twins	3.87	3.08	2.27	1.51	0.93
White Sox	4.75	4.13	3.80	3.52	2.93

Comparison to Orioles
It should be informative that the Orioles' 1 slot pitching performance (2.5 xWAR) is less than the White Sox' 5 slot pitching.  The Orioles' 2 slot pitching perforamnce (2.14 xWAR) is less than the Tigers' 4 slot pitching.  The worse pitching performance (Royals, -0.32 xWAR) is a factor 12 better than the Orioles' 5 slot (-4.04 xWAR).  Not good.