With or Without Manny, Orioles Should Sign Todd Frazier

While the Manny Machado trade rumblings are generating a rather large seismic response in the press, it does tend to neglect one aspect: the Orioles need a third baseman.  If the Orioles trade Machado, the club is without a third baseman.  Jonathan Schoop's poor range, need to set up deep due to a lethargic first step, and his difficulty getting down on the ball all indicate that his clumsy play at third years ago most likely will not have gotten any better.  Meanwhile Tim Beckham really profiles better at shortstop (*whispers* or the outfield).  This leaves a hole at third base.  If Machado stays, his desire to be a shortstop is something the Orioles will likely encourage, which also leaves third base open.  So what should the Orioles do? Sign Todd Frazier right now.

Standard Batting

Year	Age	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR
2011	25	121	6	.232	.289	.438	94	0.8
2012	26	465	19	.273	.331	.498	118	2.2
2013	27	600	19	.234	.314	.407	98	2.9
2014	28	660	29	.273	.336	.459	121	5.3
2015	29	678	35	.255	.309	.498	117	4.0
2016	30	666	40	.225	.302	.464	107	3.4
2017	31	576	27	.213	.344	.428	105	3.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/18/2017.

While those numbers in the last three years look problematic with a down trending batting average, slight decrease in ISO, and peculiar jump up in OBP, it should be noted that Frazier has remained rather healthy through his career and is somewhat athletic.  He rates as having mid level speed for a third baseman (sprint scores: 26.1 (2015), 26.2 (2016), 26.5 (2017); on par with Seth Smith and Mark Trumbo) for a third baseman, but routinely stole about 15 bases a year during his peak seasons.  In other words, while several important indicators suggest a potential breakdown, they do not fit well with other indicators.

What does our comp model say?  The comp model looks back over history and sees ten comparative Age 29-31 seasons.  It is not a great group because Frazier is up near the top in terms of offensive output, but he is still within the dataset...so...at least we are not extrapolating outside of the set.  One players bests Frazier's bat: Gorman Thomas.  Thomas quickly fell off the face of the earth for his age 32 and 33 seasons before rebounding into an age 34 last hurrah.  The others in the batch include Lee May, Joe Carter, Raul Mondesi, Rob Deer, Brandon Moss, Andruw Jones, Tony Armas, Dick Stuart, and Steve Balboni.  It is a rather motley crew that looks incredibly different from each other outside their ability to not get on base much, crush the ball, and strikeout a lot.

Average Production

	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	xWAR
2018	22	.234	.300	.428	2.5
2019	14	.220	.295	.417	1.4
2020	16	.227	.297	.416	1.7

The model is not overflowing with praise and sees some significant reduction in playing time for 2019 and 2020 (less than 400 PA).  Regardless, that production level is worth about 39 MM and is solid for a BORAS 2.0 deal at 3/37.7 MM.  That kind of production would be a considerable drop from Machado, but would provide the club with a solid role player starting at third base.

85th Percentile Production

	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	xWAR
2018	25	.247	.306	.459	3.3
2019	23	.230	.300	.446	2.5
2020	22	.247	.315	.454	2.9

One thing that really comes to light is how certain players produced quite a bit with the bat in their age 34 seasons.  Gorman Thomas, Joe Carter, and Lee May all had good years at the plate, which drives the model on the higher end.  If Frazier fits this trajectory, then he would be worth 60.9 MM over the next three seasons, which is close to what the original version of BORAS agrees with.

15th Percentile Production

	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	xWAR
2018	20	.220	.293	.395	1.8
2019	6	.195	.281	.337	0.2
2020	11	.197	.270	.356	0.4

The lower end scenario finds Frazier to be a perfectly fine player in his first season of the deal and then solely existing in the Majors as a third baseman who can field well.  He basically turns into our recent apparition of J.J. Hardy those last two seasons.  This projection is worth 16.8 MM, which would be a major loss.

Conclusion
Todd Frazier is not Manny Machado.  Over the past three seasons, Machado has had a wOBA of .355 which easily beats the .334 of Todd Frazier.  With the glove, one of Buck Showalter's big sticking point, he sure is close.  Over the last three seasons, Machado has had an 8.4 UZR/150.  Meanwhile, Frazier put up a 3.7 UZR/150, which is somewhere between Evan Longoria and Kris Bryant.  That helps shoulder the loss.

Good defense and an adequate right handed power bat is probably the best we can ask for.  Espically, if the ask is a 3/37.7 MM deal.