Chris Davis Might Well Be Gone

After a disappointing 2014, I was one of the few proponents of extending Chris Davis.  His peripherals did not look atrocious, so I questioned whether 2014 actually communicated that he was now a fringe 1B.  Added to this, I looked forward to 2016 and saw that the organization did not have a readily apparent successor (Christian Walker, a favorite of mine, has a great deal to prove) and the free agent market was void of an alternative that was significantly better than taking a chance on Walker (slating Pearce at first simply creates another hole in the outfield).  I assumed that a deal could be made with Davis in the neighborhood of 5 years at 60 MM.  Perhaps that was an unreasonable assumption.  Davis, through the arbitration construct, would earn 12 MM in 2015.  A bounce back would earn him something along the lines of another 5 years and maybe 90 MM.  A collapse might have him sit on the edges of the Majors and pulling in another 20 MM over that same span.  In other words, does a range of 20-90 MM in earnings outweigh a certain 48 MM?  Probably, so maybe I was optimistic.  That said, no way would you want to go much higher than what I suggested after that 2014 season.

Of course, now we know that Davis has not collapsed and he may well be out of the Orioles' price range.

Chris Davis' MLB Career

Year	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	OPS+	bWAR
2008	317	17	.331	.549	128	1.0
2009	419	21	.284	.442	85	-0.9
2010	136	1	.279	.292	51	-0.5
2011	210	5	.305	.402	89	-0.1
w/BAL
2011	129	2	.310	.398	92	0.0
2012	562	33	.326	.501	121	1.6
2013 ★	673	53	.370	.634	168	6.5
2014	525	26	.300	.404	96	1.8
2015	446	29	.334	.522	133	2.7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/10/2015.

What would it take to extend Davis?
Using an updated version of Dave Cameron's simple contract estimator, we can get a rough idea of what kind of contract Chris Davis might expect this offseason.  Let's say his projected WAR for next season is 2.5 and that we are now living in a 7 MM per win era.  That would suggest that Davis should be imagining a contract length of five years and total earnings of 87.5 MM (17.5 MM annual earnings).  If the Orioles chose to match those figures, then Davis would become the most expensive contract in Orioles history by besting Adam Jones by 2 MM.  I expect this will not happen.

Should Davis accept a Qualifying Offer?
I set up the framework of a decision making process to determine whether or not it makes sense to accept a Qualifying Offer over a year ago.  With the Qualifying Offer this year expected to be 16.4 MM and a slightly underperforming season (2 WAR) for him in 2016, we could expect an overall package of five years and 76.4 MM (1/16.4+4/60).  That value is almost 11 MM less than what he could expect to receive in Free Agency and represents likely base earnings.  As the only arguable first division first baseman in Free Agency this offseason, a team in need and perceives themselves as a playoff contender will easily hand over a draft pick, so I do not think QO restriction will hurt Davis.  In other words, I think the likely course of events includes the team QOing Davis and wishing him well in his future endeavors.  It likely is obvious to the front office that an elite deal for a 30-year-old first baseman rarely ever works out.

If not Walker, then who?
We can look around baseball to gauge some onerous contracts that parent clubs might be quite agreeable to let go of and may very well be available now.  Six names immediately came to mind and are shown in the table below (all contracts assume first opt out date will be taken).

	Through	$ Left	WAR Left	Net
Pablo Sandoval	2019	75	3.7	-49
Justin Morneau	2016	9	0.2	-7.4
Ryan Howard	2016	35	-0.7	-40
Pedro Alvarez	2016	7.5	-0.2	-9
Ike Davis	2016	5	7	2
Jon Singleton	2018	6.5	7.2	43.2

On second thought, some of the players above are likely not being looked to move.  The Astros' Jon Singleton may have been a disappointment so far, but still looks to be an amazing deal moving forward.  If the Astros have soured on him, he would be the gem of the bunch.  At worst, he costs the club 6.5 MM which is also known as a Delmon Young, Wesley Wright, Everth Cabrera special.  So again, the reasons he looks like a great piece for the Orioles probably are the same reasons why the Astros would keep him.  I think you would be looking at a cost of maybe Jomar Reyes and Mychal Givens to acquire him.  At most, we are talking about Dylan Bundy.

Justin Morneau, Ike Davis, and Pedro Alvarez are tweeners.  The Rockies have dealt several players to not only increase payroll flexibility, but also to keep themselves in gear for 2016.  Dealing Morneau would mean a change of plans for 2016, a season in which they still seem to think has them in contention.  Morneau is the kind of cheap, big reward first base option they would likely love to have and for which the free agent market appears slight.  Oakland is likely very willing to discuss Ike Davis.  At a likely arbitration value of 5 MM, he appears to be the kind of lottery ticket the Athletics would work with.  However, he would also be a player where the upside is slim enough that the team would be open to converting Davis into something else.  Two potential plays would be either Christian Walker or Steve Clevenger.

Pedro Alvarez has had another season that further rubs away the shine he had when drafted.  He is no longer a suitable third baseman and simply gets along with the glove at first.  His bat continues to flash promise, but more often show failure.  Alvarez is a non-tender candidate at 7.5 MM and would probably get himself a deal around 5 MM or so in free agency.  That might be a close enough difference that another club might be willing to pay in hopes that maybe, just maybe, Alvarez is a late bloomer.  I imagine a power arm like Lazaro Leyva would easily get the Pirates' attention after the season.  If Alvarez would make his way through waivers, then the Orioles would have to supply something useful for the Pirates bench.  The club does not seem to have an abundance of that.

Pablo Sandoval might be a provocative option here.  Only one year into his deal, Sandoval has been a massive (forgive the unintentional pun) disappointment.  His hitting has been poor and he does not look capable of defending the hot corner.  The Red Sox other big free agent play, Hanley Ramirez, has shown a slightly more competent bat, but looks a bit lost in left field as well.  As they have done in the past, the Red Sox may be willing to eat some of Sandoval's contract and move Ramirez back to third.  Sandoval's current projection has him being worth 26 MM over the rest of his contract.  If you ignore his 2015 season, then he appears to be worth 53 MM (while costing 75 MM).  The Red Sox can afford to wait and see if Sandoval's value will rise, so they might be willing to cover up to 30 MM in exchange for a couple interesting, but not important, prospects.  I could see a power arm and a position prospect, perhaps Leyva and Jonah Heim.

Ryan Howard, through no fault of his own, is an obscene 2016 contract.  He has a 25 MM base and an almost assured 10 MM buyout to prevent a 25 MM 2017 season.  As such, he is worth no prospect of any value no matter what the Phillies assume.  Would the Phillies eat 30 MM in order to save 5 MM?  I imagine they could do a similar deal mid-season if he bounces back and at worst lose that 5 MM.  If I was the Phillies, I would be more likely to listen to a deal where the Phillies covered 20 to 25 MM.  At that level, it probably makes no sense for the Orioles to try for that.

Conclusion
I would be open to four options: Jon Singleton, Ike Davis, Pablo Sandoval, or Walker/Pearce.  Thoughts?