Blueprint for the 2018 Orioles (Option #8): Can I Have More Money?

Once the Orioles stop playing, we begin playing around with the roster and look toward the next year. The Depot's Blueprint Series tries to take a well focused look as to what the potential solutions are to what ails the club. A subset of our writers take part in this exercise and we invite our readership to submit their own ideas. Below is our third reader submission. This submission is from Roger H.

This is our last blueprint option.  I will now be sorting through the recommendations to formulate the "site" plan.

-----

All of the roster recommendations have pretty much followed the same initial assumptions with the exception of one Britton non-tender and a Trumbo release.  I’ll not do either and just start from the same base everyone else has of $113.5M in contract obligations.  The leaves $41.5M to spend on the rest of the roster.  

I am going to start from a base of the following: C. Davis, A. Jones, Trumbo, O’Day, Machado, Britton, Schoop, Gausman, Brach, Beckham, Joseph, Bundy, Mancini, Givens, M. Castro, Bleier, Hart, Sisco, Santander, Rule 5 (or Joey Rickard or Ryan Flaherty only at minimum).

That is a total of $118 spent and $37M left to spend and five roster spots to fill.

First, about primary needs.  We all know the SP issue, but OF defense, speed, predominant RH lineup, and consistency (avoiding team hitting slumps) are also issues.  Many of these overlap so there is hope.  One other item I’d like to address is the future.  Everything I see from the bloggers say either trade the stars or the O’s fall off a cliff.  I personally think the O’s should also be planning for the next year and build a team Machado might want to stay on.  Plan for a COF role for Adam even if he is re-signed.  I would like to have some faith the O’s could be competitive next year too (e.g. like the Beckham move).

With all of the above in mind, here are the FA’s I would buy into

• Jarrod Dyson at the revised price of 2/16
• Jaime Garcia at 2/22.9
• Alex Cobb at 3/31.1
• Chris Tillman at 1/3
• Eduardo Nunez at 2/20.8

This adds up to $43.3M.  This is $6M over budget.  I’ll address this later.

Here’s the logic.  Dyson is the CF we need to convince Adam Jones that it’s time to move to COF.  Even Adam could not look at the statistics and argue the point.  Adam can still be an above average COF and he can still play CF against tough lefties.  Dyson is also a LH OF and adds speed which could be the key to avoiding the team slumps.  And a two year contract is enough to hopefully bridge the gap until a successful Mullins can be integrated into the lineup (or Hays if he can play CF).

Garcia is better than his statistics.  He had some real stretches of dominance last year and was never really bad.  In fact, he is an elite 4-inning pitcher until you notice the ERA of 9.51 in the fifth inning.  My guess is that many of those runs were given up by a Braves bullpen that couldn’t put out fires although he did give up most of his HRs in the 5th.  If he makes it through the 5th (specifically the third time through the lineup) then he is good for the full 100+ plus pitches in 6-7 innings.  Using Joseph as his personal catcher would be a good idea to keep his walks down.

I choose Cobb over Lynn because I think Cobb has more upside but this is one area where we could save money by going with Lynn over Cobb.  Plus, signing Cobb for three years vs. Lynn for two makes more of a commitment to the future with a pitcher who could be a third stud better than even Gausman or Bundy.  On the other hand, signing Lynn would save $1.2M leaving us only $5M over budget.  Signing Lynn and eliminating Tillman in favor of Ynoa or Yefry Ramirez would pretty much solve the roster cost overage.  That’s what I’d do to stay within the rules of this exercise.  I just don’t think that is the best way to go.

With regards to Tillman, his bad season is actually the best thing that could have happened with regards to next year.  There is no one on the FA agent list with more upside potential even if he just pitches up to his average statistics, which I think he can.  The O’s must splurge on a make-good one year contract for Tillman.  With Ramirez and Ynoa and Castro in the fold (along with the whole list of AAAA pitchers at Norfolk), the risk with Tillman as a #5 is miniscule.

Finally, I can’t believe no one is jumping on Nunez.  He played every position last year except C, 1B, and CF.  He could get nearly a full year’s worth of ABs by rotating through the IF and OF giving everyone a rest one day a week (especially Jones).  Not to mention, as a former All Star, he has the potential to step right in for the eventual injured starter.  His batting line was superb for a super util.  Further, he could play 3B reasonably if Machado does bolt next year (another Beckham-ish signing).  With Mullins, Hays, and Mountcastle getting closer, there is hope if we have a bridge to get there.

That brings us to the elephant in the room.  Hays should begin at AAA with the current roster situation but trading Trumbo should be a priority to clear a roster spot for Hays.  If Santander doesn’t perform within 45 days then he can be sent to AAA and Hays brought up.  Once Hays is brought up, the need to make space for him forces Trumbo to sit or get traded.  Further, a trade straight up for a prospect of any sort would clear enough payroll to get under the $155M cap assigned here.  Or he can be traded for someone else’s problem that’s not an OF/1B, preferably a pitcher.  Trading Trumbo for the veritable bucket of balls might be OK if you really want to clear salary.

Also, I think the O’s should aggressively negotiate with Britton to extend him at a lower AAV (maybe 3/34 (10M/12M/12M)?).  Getting him down to $10M for next year would surely also solve the budget overage.  And the Dyson logic (platoon/part-time player) could also apply to Nunez.  Or he could be offered an escalating contract at a lower AAV for next year.

Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #7)

Once the Orioles stop playing, we begin playing around with the roster and look toward the next year. The Depot's Blueprint Series tries to take a well focused look as to what the potential solutions are to what ails the club. A subset of our writers take part in this exercise and we invite our readership to submit their own ideas. Below is our third reader submission. This submission is from John.

-----

Hearing patients talk about "blowing up" or "rebuilding" underestimate the difficulty and pure luck that is involved with trading a known commodity for unproven prospects. So this blueprint will be based on making a quality baseball team that will compete in 2018. Lets go position by position in this breakdown.

Catcher- Thank you Wellington Castillo for a great season and we wish you the best as you sign a multi-year deal with another team (preferably a National League one). Caleb Joseph had a renaissance of hitting after his RBI-less year and provides above average defense. He is a tremendously underrated player. Chance Cisco has been one of our top prospects for the past 3 years and he is ready for MLB pitching. Caleb should begin the season as the starter and allow for a slow transformation of Cisco to be our primary starter by the end of the year.

First Base- Chris Davis is signed for a very long time. He isn't going anywhere. No one is going to take on his contract unless the Orioles take on a bit of it which is a distinctly NON-Angelos thing to do. The silver lining of having a hitter that bats below the Mendoza line is his gold glove fielding, something that should never be underestimated. The eternal optimist would point out that Davis is a known streaky hitter and hopefully if he makes a few adjustments or gets contact lenses then he could rebound after his terrible season.

Second Base- Jonathan Schoop is young, controlled for two more seasons, and the best overall player on the roster. He is loved by his teammates and management alike and signing him to a long term deal will be significantly cheaper (and a better investment due to his lack of injury history) than Manny.

Third Base- Manny Machado is a superstar. He is a clutch hitter and poetry in motion while playing defense. My fear is that he won't want to stay in Baltimore and will go back to Miami (Jeter would be drooling at the prospect of signing him). Regardless, the Orioles should attempt to sign him to a 5 year, 155 million dollar deal with a player option. They could even sweeten the pot with a player opt-out after year 3. Hopefully the length of the contract would keep Angelos from getting scared of the commitment and the commitment to winning would hopefully re-invigorate the club and the city. Also Mountcastle is about 3 years away from being ready for the Majors.

Shortstop- Tim Beckham is a streaky, sparkplug player who is under team control for a few season at a cheap rate. The errors are upsetting but not every player will be a gold glove. I will accept that this was a good trade by Dan and has solidified a position with an above average player that can be controlled cheaply for a few more years.

Left Field- I was delighted by the hustle and defense of Trey Mancini in left field last year. He often times caught opposing teams off-guard with a great throw or a great catch. Its troubling that a rookie was our most patient hitter and he will hopefully be an Oriole for a long time coming.

Center Field- Adam Jones is the heart and soul of this team. He will most likely resign and remain in Baltimore for the entirety of his career. I foresee a statue of him one day as I walk into Camden yard. He is getting older and can no longer handle a 160 game schedule.

Right Field- Austin Hays epitomizes the city of Baltimore and has become a fan favorite. He is tough, hard working, likable, and constantly proving nay-sayers wrong. He will begin the season and have a mix and match with an OF free agent (more on that later) and will be moved to CF to let Adam have a day off.

Designated Hitter- ANYONE EXCEPT TRUMBO. Team chemistry is as important to have a winning club as good defense and pitching. Our season ended when he was hit with the second pie and went on to complain. If he was hitting 40+ home runs and batting over .300 then being a stick in the mud would be acceptable. You can either be no fun or no good, not both. You could see the energy and fight just leave the team after that day. Luckily he has only 2 years left at a not outrageously terrible price tag. He must be traded at all cost. We already have Chris Davis, there is no need for him.

Free agent hitters
-Jayson Werth for 1 year. This is a classic low risk, high reward Dan Duqette signing. Jayson will come cheap after a disappointing season for the Nationals. I think that coming to a hitter friendly park would allow for him to rebound and have a productive offensive season.
-Howie Kendrick for 2 year deal. Howie Kendrick should be our starting DH next season, with the occasional day in the outfield to give one of the starters a day off. He is an extremely effective hitter who would provide more veteran leadership to the team and whose personality will mesh very well for the established core players.

Starting pitchers
-There is good news and bad news with the starting pitching. The good news is we have two starters that are young, controllable, and could develop into an Ace. The bad news is that we have nothing else. We have 60% of our rotation empty. At this rate we would garuntee lose 60% of our games (a similar statistic to when Ubaldo and Miley took the mound towards the end). The first no brainer move is to resign Tillman to a one year deal. I believe that he never fully healed and rushed himself back when he saw the struggles of the team only to worsen the situation. The most important signing of the offseason would be C.C. Sabathia. I hope we can lock him in at 2 years and 22 million. Having a proven leader in the rotation could hopefully help the inconsistency problems that have plagued Bundy and especially Gausman. The second free agent signing should be Alex Cobb. He will most likely cost 35 million over 3 years. He has already had Tommy John and is one of the most consistent pitchers on the market. A one year minor deal to Derek Holland would also be a great insurance policy for Tillman.

Relief pitching
- Nothing should change. Don't rob from peter to pay paul.

Blueprint For The 2018 Orioles (Option #6): DJ Play My Song

Once the Orioles stop playing, we begin playing around with the roster and look toward the next year.  The Depot's Blueprint Series tries to take a well focused look as to what the potential solutions are to what ails the club.  A subset of our writers take part in this exercise and we invite our readership to submit their own ideas.

Below is our second reader submission.  I have edited it for clarity.  If I have been too extreme with my editorial skills, we will surely see the author complain in the comments. Our second submission is from S.L. Siler.

-----

For this exercise, I’m buying out JJ Hardy and Wade Miley. Miley makes you think a little because of the lack of dependable starting pitching on the roster and the fact that outside of the control issues he was ok. He missed bats as well as ever and his velocity was also as good as it ever was. There are likely better options for the 11.5 million difference between the option salary and the buyout.

I’m tendering contracts to all of the arbitration eligible players. All of these are pretty straightforward

decisions, although lingering injury issues do make Zach Britton’s salary a bit concerning.

So now we get to pre-arbitration players already on the team. I’m going with a youth movement here. Dylan Bundy is obvious. Trey Mancini, Miguel Castro, Mychal Givens will be on the team as well, no surprise. Gabriel Ynoa is the #5 starter. Anthony Santander needs to at least start the season on the club, so here’s there as well. Now for the fun part, Tanner Scott is the second lefty in the bullpen (Bleier is AAA depth). Chance Sisco is a platoon catcher along with Joseph. Austin Hays is in RF except and will fill in at CF when Jones is taking routine rest days. DJ Stewart is a part-time LF, playing against most righties (Joey Rickard is AAA depth) . On days Stewart is playing, Mancini will be at DH or 1B and Chris Davis or Mark Trumbo will get the day off. Lucas Long is the first man up in AAA to spot start or eat innings in relief.

Payroll Remaining: 37.62 million

I didn’t leave too many holes but we still need two starting pitchers, a reliever, and a utility infield. Fortunately there are some excellent options in my price range.

Starting Pitchers

Tyler Chatwood 10.47/year, 4 years

Alex Cobb 10.36/year, 3 years

Reliever

Juan Niscasio 7/year, 3 years

Utility Infielder

Eric Sogard 9.5/year, 2 years

I think this creates a stronger 25 man roster top to bottom than 2017. Alex Cobb and Tyler Chatwood are clear upgrades to Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley. Chatwood saw a velocity spike last season and could be coming into his own as he further distances himself from Tommy John surgery. Plus at 28, he’s one of the youngest free agent options available. Cobb had a good season and will also be further removed from injury. Gabriel Ynoa still needs to develop his change-up as more than just a show-me pitch, but the mid-90’s fastball with life and slider combo will play. He doesn’t have to do much to be a major improvement over the ghost of Chris Tillman (who was allowed to pitch most of the season with a changed arm slot and reduced spin rate for some reason).

The bullpen is a real strength if Zach Britton recovers anything near his old form. The addition of Juan Nicasio who has been excellent since has move to the bullpen, allows Buck to use Darren O’Day as a RH specialist (his best role). Tanner Scott can be eased into the Majors as a LOOGY/mop-up guy. Miguel Castro is your long man/jack of all trades.

As for the position players, one of the things I tried to achieve is the ability to give guys more rest. Adam Jones at this point needs a game off a week at least. Hays can play CF in those games. When Jones is playing, Hays and Santander can split RF starts. When Hays is on the bench he can be a late inning defensive replacement in any OF position (I think he’s better defensively than Jones at this point). 

In LF, my goal is to not have Mancini play out there most of the time. He was better than expected, but his arm is weak (albeit accurate), and his speed limits his ceiling there. DJ Stewart is not a name on the lips of most Orioles fans, but the former first round pick is living up to his draft status after a rough year or two. Without doing a full prospect write-up, I’ll make a quick case for him. Stewart had a weird, crouched batting stance when drafted that most scout thought wouldn’t play against pro competition. Either he resisted changing it or the Orioles let him keep it and he struggled. He wasn’t getting to any power with the wood bat. In 2016 he bought into a change and by mid-season this year he finally got comfortable with a new batting stance (he said in an interview that he finally could have an AB where he wasn’t thinking about cues for his stance). He had an .859 OPS this season in Bowie, and added 20 steals while only getting caught 4 times. He hit righties to the turn of a .892 OPS and had a .952 OPS after the all-star break. He has the most advanced approach at the plate of all the Orioles’ prospects and while he’s not a defensive whiz, he was much better this season and scored high marks with Clay Davenport and Baseball Prospectus’ MILB defensive metrics. DJ Stewart can play LF against RH pitchers and allow for rotating off days for Trumbo, Davis, and Mancini. 

Having a solid utility option like Eric Sogard will allow for Manny, Schoop, and Beckham to get rest when needed. Sogard plays a great 2B, a solid third, and can fake it at SS. He brings a different type of bat to the Orioles line-up. He had the lowest swinging strike rate in the majors last year at 3.3%. He only swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 18.5% of the time, a significant plate discipline improvement from previous seasons, leading me to believe that he can replicate his strong 2017 campaign. The reduction in swings at bad pitches also led to his highest line drive% and highest hard hit% of his career.

In conclusion, the team gets much younger without punting 2018. The line-up will benefit from the additions of OBP guys Sisco, Stewart, and Sogard. The bullpen will be deeper and throw harder with the additions of Nicasio and Scott. The rotation adds a solidifying third starter, and a young fourth starter with great velocity and some upside. The outfield defense improves with no Smith, no OF appearances for Trumbo, and less Mancini.