So what do I look for in a Rule 5 pitcher? Well, it is the same thing I look for in a MiL free agent. I want to see a lot of swinging strikes and a good peripherals. My approach is a little more complex (just a tad), but a simple way to look at this is whether there are any pitchers on a AA or AAA launchpad to the majors who have shown above average performance with metrics like swinging strikes, weak contact, groundballs, etc. This collection of four pitchers are those who I found who have excelled at these.
The Lefthanded Option
Jordan Guerrero
| Year | Age | Lev | DRA | IP | BB9 | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 18 | Rk | 5.43 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| 2013 | 19 | Rk | 5.90 | 25.1 | 1.8 | 5.3 |
| 2014 | 20 | A | 3.10 | 78.0 | 3.1 | 9.2 |
| 2015 | 21 | A+-A | 2.31 | 149.0 | 1.9 | 8.9 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | 5.66 | 136.0 | 4.8 | 7.1 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | 2.64 | 146.1 | 2.6 | 8.4 |
| All | All | 543.2 | 3.0 | 8.2 | ||
| AA ( | AA ( | Minors | 282.1 | 3.7 | 7.8 | |
| A (2 | A (2 | Minors | 133.1 | 2.5 | 9.5 | |
| Rk ( | Rk ( | Minors | 34.1 | 2.4 | 5.5 |
Jordan Guerrero has some knocks against him. He does not throw hard, whihc means he has less room for failure as he faces more advanced hitting. Throwing 90 or 91 mph is playing around the threshold of effective starting pitching. Guerrero has also shown a need to repeat leagues, though that may be a product of his age. For a club like the Orioles who have some post-season hopes, a pitcher who has major issues in his first taste of more advanced hitting might well find most if not all of his time sitting on the bench unused. While Duquette may have employed the log view at times, it often seems as if Buck tolerates far fewer shows of below average production and a suspiciousness to players who may be on the roster for reasons other than good play.
He also relies heavily on his fastball/changeup mix. Even with uneven breaking material, he still manages to handle left handers rather well with good mechanics and control. Most see him as a pitcher who could be implemented well out of the bullpen with an eye to a 5th starter role post-2018. For the Orioles, this might be intriguing as the club as a major lack of MLB ready starters and may need to implement more of a revolving doors of arms this year.
The Righthanders
James Farris
| Year | Age | Lev | DRA | IP | BB9 | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 | A- | 1.54 | 14.0 | 1.9 | 13.5 |
| 2015 | 23 | A-A+ | 4.02 | 46.2 | 3.5 | 10.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA-A+ | 1.64 | 66.0 | 2.3 | 10.1 |
| 2016 | 24 | Fal | 0.00* | 10.0 | 1.8 | 10.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA-AA | 2.37 | 57.2 | 2.7 | 10.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | Fal | 11.57* | 9.1 | 3.9 | 8.7 |
| Mino | Mino | Minors | 184.1 | 2.7 | 10.7 | |
| Othe | Othe | Other | 19.1 | 2.8 | 9.8 | |
| All | All | 203.2 | 2.7 | 10.6 | ||
| AA ( | AA ( | Minors | 54.2 | 2.0 | 10.9 | |
| A+ ( | A+ ( | Minors | 47.2 | 3.0 | 10.0 |
James Farris is an interesting pitcher. He was a rock bottom senior sign for the Cubs, receiving a paltry $4,000 signing bonus (his four years of professional play have netted him somewhere around $36-44K total). This past fall saw his second outing in the Arizona Fall League, which went way way worse than the first time around. His performance in Arizona, is largely attributed to him having terrible BABIP issues. He comes across as a right handed version of Guerrero. He throws around 90-91 and relies heavily on his changeup and a change of pace breaking ball. Farris may be a reverse splits pitcher due to his fastball/changeup interplay.
A potential drawback for the Orioles selecting Farris is that there really is no reason to think he can work deep into games. His usage has been more or less as a crafty right handed closer for the Cubs and, last year, Rockies. That said, it is hard to look past his double digit strikeout rates that he has accomplished in spite of his lack of velocity. The club could see a strong fit with him as the fourth or fifth right hander in the pen.
Jake Reed
| Year | Age | Lev | DRA | IP | BB9 | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 21 | A-Rk | 1.86 | 31.0 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
| 2015 | 22 | AA-A+ | 3.47 | 59.1 | 3.3 | 7.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA-AAA | 3.02 | 70.2 | 3.1 | 9.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA-AA | 4.12 | 38.0 | 4.0 | 7.8 |
| Year | Age | Lev | IP | BB9 | SO9 | |
| Mino | Mino | Minors | 199.0 | 3.0 | 8.6 | |
| Othe | Othe | Other | 23.1 | 2.7 | 7.7 | |
| All | All | 222.1 | 3.0 | 8.5 | ||
| AAA | AAA | Minors | 41.1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | |
| AA ( | AA ( | Minors | 114.1 | 3.9 | 8.7 |
Jake Reed has a more compelling repertoire to stick as a reliever than Guerrero or Farris. He employs a heavy mid 90s fastball with a slider and change up that at times appear useful. He does not give up home runs, tends to keep the ball on the ground, but has bouts of control issues. He is a player who when you look at him, he looks far more like a successful reliever than he actually has been in practice. 2017, though hindered with an oblique injury, left some hope with him tossing 30.2 IP of 2.05 ERA ball in AAA.
Reed is an arm that might strike the Orioles fancy. He is a hard thrower. He puts the ball on the ground. Although these attributes are not hard requirements to be an Orioles pitcher, the club tends to lean in these directions and Reed shows promise with both of those. Of course, there is not multi-demensionality of his pitching role. He is a bullpen arm and nothing other than a bullpen arm. That could be useful, but, again, the club is likely to look toward arms with secondary potential to fill in the rotation.
Burch Smith
| Year | Age | Lev | DRA | IP | BB9 | SO9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | Rk | 4.11 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 18.0 |
| 2012 | 22 | A+ | 2.13 | 128.2 | 1.9 | 9.6 |
| 2013 | 23 | AAA-AA | 2.29 | 92.1 | 2.2 | 9.9 |
| 2013 | 23 | MLB | 5.48 | 36.1 | 5.2 | 11.4 |
| 2014 | 24 | AAA | 5.20 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 5.1 |
| 2014 | 24 | Fal | 5.52* | 14.2 | 3.1 | 5.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | A+-AAA-Rk | 3.86 | 56.1 | 3.8 | 8.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | Fal | 3.98* | 20.1 | 4.9 | 12.8 |
| Year | Age | Lev | IP | BB9 | SO9 | |
| Mino | Mino | Minors | 284.2 | 2.5 | 9.5 |
There is an old scouting adage about prospects: if they flash it, they own it. It is an idea that basically means that if a prospect flashes a plus tool that, with maturation, they will grow into a more consistent ownership of that tool. That perspective bleeds into other assessments and when it does it gets a bit worrisome. This year, Burch Smith has been the recipient of that perspective.
Smith is coming off a very long Tommy John surgery and rehabilitation. His surgery was on April 2015, but he suffered several setbacks and did not get back out into competitive play until midway through this past season. He would enter games pretty hot. He was capable of touching mid to high 90s, but would very quickly lose that and settle around 91-92 and cratering if left in longer than once through the lineup. This is not new and was a trait that plagued him pre-surgery, too. He throws a curve with decent movement, but that movement comes in a way where bats should rarely miss it. He has some trouble getting much out of his changeup, which poses some issues for him profiling as a long reliever. He has also played around with a cutter, but it is uncertain to what extent he will try to utilize this pitch in the future or how well it will be used.
That all said, he was particularly devastating to the first couple batters he would face before fatigue would erode his mechanics and velocity. To those who think he can be a starter, that is based on his having been a starter once and carrying the residual starter's collection of pitches. What is probably in front of him is like as a fastball and curveball heavy pitcher with emphasis on the fastball. You might be able to see something Tommy Hunter-ish if you squint. But, yes, he looks like a decent Rule 5 pickup, but there certainly are reasons why he was left off the 40 man roster.
Conclusion
As always, no one really shines forth in this draft as an amazing talent. You have talents who have major red flags; be it talent, performance, or injury based. The above are all interesting. They are all arms that a club would like to have in their system, but perhaps no so much as to have to put them on an active roster or even a 40 man roster.