Expanding on the Orioles' Rule 5 Acquisitions

In the major league phase of the December 11 Rule 5 draft, the Orioles acquired two players. They purchased pitcher Jason Garcia from the Astros after Houston had selected him from the Red Sox, and with their own selection they drafted pitched Logan Verrett from the Mets. You may decide that I'm a baseball freak in many senses of the term because I've actually seen both Verrett and Garcia pitch live in minor-league games. On June 7, 2013, after a rainy afternoon at the Allegheny Portage Railroad National Historic Site, I saw Logan Verrett pitch for the Binghamton Mets against the Altoona Curve at People's Natural Gas Field in Altoona, PA. And on August 7, 2014, on my way to Atlanta, I saw Jason Garcia pitch three innings of relief for the Greenville Drive against the Augusta Greenjackets at Fluor Field in Greenville, SC.

I admit I don't remember Verrett or Garcia. However, as I have done at almost every baseball game I've attended since I was eight years old, I kept score and kept the scoresheets. So, I'll look back at those games to learn about the new Orioles.

Logan Verrett

The Altoona Curve didn't score many runs against Logan Verrett, and he was credited with Binghamton's 3-2 win. But it really wasn't because of how Logan Verrett pitched that Altoona didn't score:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Game Score
6	9	2	2	2	3	51

Four Altoona runners were retired on the bases - one doubled off first base on a soft line drive; another picked off second by the catcher; a third thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double; and a fourth caught stealing. In an alternate universe with no baserunning errors and unchanged batter results, Altoona would have scored two more runs and won the game.

The Altoona batters consistently hit the ball in the air against Logan Verrett:

Ground Ball	6
Fly Ball	8
Line Drive	6
Walk	2
Strikeout	3

And Verrett wasn't missing bats. I can't state it as a fact, but I don't recall a starting pitcher having such a high percentage of pitches fouled off:

Ball	28
Called Strike	13
Swinging Strike	5
Foul Ball	27
In Play	20

Based on this game, I don't see what Logan Verrett brings to the Orioles. He looks like a generic minor-league starting pitcher, and even though he only cost $50,000 to acquire, I don't think he's worth a spot on the forty-man roster. Nor do I see what role he would perform on the Orioles better than other available pitchers. It's certainly possible that Verrett pitched better overall than in this one game, and it's also possible that he's improved over the past season. But it seems to me that Verrett is just starting pitching depth for Norfolk. For Verrett to fill that role, the Mets would have to not reclaim him when he's offered back; and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Mets didn't reclaim him.

Jason Garcia

If the Orioles' selection of Logan Verrett is puzzling, the Orioles' acquisition of Jason Garcia (via trade with Houston) is understandable although unlikely to pan out. The major reason the move is unlikely to pan out is that the 22-year-old Garcia has only reached Class A and has pitched only about eighty innings in the past two seasons. But it's easy to see him succeeding as a power arm in the bullpen.

While Garcia's pitching line isn't all that impressive, there are extenuating circumstances:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Game Score
3	5	3	3	1	4	40

Again, this was as a relief pitcher. Garcia didn't allow a run in his first two innings; Greenville had a 5-0 lead going into the top of the ninth. In the ninth, the probably-tiring Garcia allowed three runs. Facing the potential tying run, he ended the game with a strikeout to get credit for a save. His apparent future is in the bullpen, so his tiring in his third inning isn't much of a problem.

But he's even more interesting. Of the thirteen batters he faced, one hit the ball in the air (a double off the left-field wall by the second-to-last batter he faced) and seven hit the ball on the ground. If Garcia can consistently get both ground balls and strikeouts, he can be a very effective relief pitcher.

The Orioles will have to offer Garcia back to the Red Sox if he isn't able to stick on the active roster all season. Garcia is simply not ready for the major leagues. Some teams will carry a promising young pitcher who's far from being ready, hoping to keep him and using him in mop-up roles. But those teams are usually not contenders (although Milwaukee did carry an inexperienced Wei-Chung Wang in 2014, getting him 17 major-league innings and 23 minor-league rehab innings around stints on the disabled list.) The Orioles are contenders and rely on every player on the roster. It doesn't seem likely that the Orioles will waste a roster spot on a pitcher like Garcia, limited to mop-up duty; and it doesn't seem likely that Boston wouldn't reclaim him if the Orioles offer him back. So while Garcia is worth selecting, it's doubtful that the Orioles will benefit.

These observations are generally confirmed by the published scouting reports. While Dan Duquette has had some solid but unspectacular success with the Rule 5 draft with Ryan Flaherty and T.J. McFarland, I don't think it's likely that he'll repeat his success with Logan Verrett or Jason Garcia.