Oriole Rule 5 Target: Thomas Pham

Lots of hay in the Rule 5

Yes, I am going to waste your time.  I am going to write about a player who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  There is a type of player who might be the best to focus on.  That type is the player who was injured the year before.  In the previous column, I mentioned Cody Satterwhite and his labrum tear that limited him to ten innings last year as he rehabbed in rookie ball.  Another player who was limited was the 23 year old Cardinals' center fielder Thomas Pham.

In 2006, Thomas Pham was a name everyone knew coming out of high school in Las Vegas.  His Baseball America scouting report at the time mentions him as a prospect who could be seen as either an infielder or a pitcher.  He threw in the low 90s and flashed a plus slider.  He was seen more as an offensive hitter, drawing comparisons to Scott Hairston.  He hit the ball solidly and used his plus speed on the base paths.  Baseball America's assumption was that he would go sometime in the top five rounds and be overslotted.  However, there were some doubts about his maturity.  Pham was considered lackadaisical on defense and walked back on a commitment to Arizona State.  In the end, Pham was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 16th round and signed for 325k (roughly 3rd/4th round money).

The Cardinals tried him out at shortstop, but that last only for rookie ball.  For 2007 and onward, Pham was positioned almost exclusively in center field.  By all accounts, he did not take naturally to the position, but has improved with time.  His plus speed and a better understanding of route running has made him passable in center field.  His plus arm helped him record an assist once every 7 games last year.  He would not look pretty in the majors in center field, but those two attributes should be passable.

Pham also had difficulty showing himself to be a bat first prospect.  He struggled with the Mendoza Line in rookie ball, low A, A, and high A ball.  In his second pass through A ball in Quad Cities, he mashed 17 home runs in 346 plate appearances as a 20 year old.  However, he batted .218 and struck out 36% of the time.  The Cardinals kept pushing him up the ladder though and everything seemed to click performance-wise in AA.  His K rate dropped to 22% over 2010 and 2011 which works nicely with a maintained walk rate of about 11%.  His AA line has been 314/398/527.  If he had not broken his wrist 40 games into the 2011 season while go after a potential home run ball, I think he would have been protected.

How could the Orioles hold onto him for a season?

The Orioles need a fourth outfielder.  Pham is likely not to be league average, but he has the tools to be adequate in any of the three outfield slots.  He has experience in center and left while Reimold has spent time in both left and right.  Pham also has plus speed and has shown some ability to use that speed on the base paths.  Those qualities could make him workable in a pinch if an outfielder goes down for a few weeks.  He 306 plate appearances at AA do not suggest he is ready to make the leap to MLB, but he has shown good gap power and improved contact.  Pham would be better served by spending the year in the minors, but it may be worth it for a bad team to try to use him.

The alternative to Pham is using Kyle Hudson or Matt Angle in the outfield.  Hudson has more talent than Angle and Angle has more skill than Hudson.  Neither are likely to be anything more than fringe fourth outfielders.  Angle has a better chance to stick because he can play plus defense in center.  Pham, though, has the ability to be useful in center and carry an average to above average bat if everything clicks.  Additionally, if his broken wrist is still a problem, the Orioles might be able to stash him on the DL for a while.

As I mentioned earlier, the Rule 5 is full of unfulfilled potential, broken bodies, and guys who have one moderately amazing tool.  Any player you select is highly unlikely to provide any value to your team.  That does not mean there are no players of value.  It means that the ability to discern potential talent and be blessed (cursed?) with the opportunity to hold onto that talent is miniscule.  Pham is likely to not be a contributor at the MLB level now or perhaps even in the future.  He is a fringe top 20 prospect.  That said, maybe he is worth a look.

Assortment of Rule 5 Eligible Players

Cesar Cabral could be taken again in Rule 5.

The Rule 5 draft is one of those things that irritate me.  It is an event that has lost any meaning it use to have and is merely discussed because, simply, it takes place.  For instance, there has been concern that a Pedro Viola remains on the Orioles' 40 man roster while someone like Orioles Minor League Pitcher of the Year Tim Bascom was not protected (unprotected for the second year in a row).  There are a few things to be understood:

1. Being left off the 40 man roster does not mean that the organization does not value you.  It can sometimes mean that the organization thinks you are just too raw to be able to stick with a MLB team through the entire season (Rule 5 players cannot be demoted, only play in the Majors for someone or be returned to the parent club's minor league system).  By not protecting him, you save a spot on the 40 man roster and you wind up having an extra year to keep said prospect in the minors.
2. Players who are currently on the 40 man roster may not be planned to be there for long.  Many players, including guys like Pedro Viola, remain on the roster until free agents are signed and then are designated for assignment.  It is a good idea to take a step back before using a player occupying a 40 man roster spot as the lynchpin of an argument.  However, if you think Oliver Drake is less talented than someone else eligible for protection...type away.
3. Drake leads us to this (and I like Drake)...we are talking about relatively worthless prospects.  Ever since the last collective bargaining agreement tacked on an additional year of protection before MLB teams had to keep a guy on the 40 man roster, the rule 5 is now full of incredibly uninteresting players.  Who of importance have the Orioles lost in the past five years?  Pedro Beato.  He was probably the best Rule 5 selection last year and he had an ERA+ of 87.  That is about 20% worse than the average relief pitcher in the NL.

What the above should impart upon you is that the Rule 5 is much ado about pretty much nothing.  The only truly interesting guys are those who are low minors with injuries that have prevented anyone from getting a good handle on the player.  This largely means relief pitchers and on rare occasions you have a utility player.  The only time you find a bonafide plus player in the Rule 5 now is if he is a reformed drug addict who had not played meaningful ball in four years.

However, I will provide a list of a few players who might be of interest to the Orioles.  This is not intended to be a comprehensive list, but one that is merely a bit targeted.  I expect Baseball America will produce something more thorough in the next week or two.

Cody Satterwhite, RHRP
25 years old
Detroit Tigers
Rookie 10 IP, 9 k/9, 1.8 b/9, 45.2% GB, 60% contact, 3.08 SIERA

Satterwhite was a second round selection of the Tigers in 2008.  He was a reliever with a mid 90s fastball, a sharp slider, and control issues.  He was struck with a torn labrum, which is a death knell for most pitchers.  He missed all of 2010 and was limited to 10 innings for the rookie GCL Tigers team.  I do not have any notes on him from this summer, but he might be someone to take a flyer on.

Johan Yan, RHRP
23 years old
Texas Rangers
A+/AA 68 IP, 8.74 k/9, 2.9 b/9, 66% GB, 66% contact, 2.86 SIERA

Yan came into the Rangers organizations as a 16 year old signee with a plus arm.  He was considered a promising shortstop.  However, he had no ability to use a bat and was flipped to the mound after four difficult seasons.  After switch to a side arm release, he has had a great deal of success in the low minors.  His fastball sits in the high 80s and it is reported that his slider is about average.  He also showed particular aptitude to getting out right handed batters.  In AA, his stuff was a bit more hittable, but he still managed to induce a lot of poor contact.  A team could hide potentially hide a righty specialist in the pen.

Cesar Cabral, LHRP
22 years old
Boston Red Sox
A+/AA 53 IP, 11.4 k/9, 3.6 b/9, 52% GB, 56% Contact, 2.89 SIERA

In last year's Rule 5 draft, the Tampa Bay Rays selected Cesar Cabral.  He was placed on waivers, then claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays, and then reclaimed by the Rays.  The Rays tried and failed to work out a deal with Boston and was then returned to the Red Sox.  Based on the reports that I have, Cabral worth with a fastball around 90 mph, a slurve, and a changeup.

Terry Doyle, RHSP
26 years old
Chicago White Sox
A+/AA 173 IP, 6.4 k/9, 1.7 b/9, 48% GB, 76% contact, 3.85 SIERA

Doyle is your more typical player that mainstream press notices.  He is a minor league inning eater who gets by with solid control of the strike zone.  It is one of those things where performance does not exactly relate well to performance against higher caliber players.  This off season Doyle has been pitching in the Arizona Fall League and has permitted every team to get a good look-see on him.  As a starter, he sits in the upper 80s and sometimes gets it up to 91 or 92 mph.  According to Kevin Goldstein, he survives off a cutter and keeps pace with an average curveball and change up.  I could see someone taking a chance on him as a fastball/cutter/curve middle reliever who could rack up innings.

The players above fit pretty much the expected archetypes.  You have the once promising pitcher who has had severe injuries issues.  There is the young international signing who was switched from the field to the mound.  A lefty who has shown promise in the low minors, but lacks stuff.  You also have the low ceiling inning eating righty who is showing off his wares in the AFL.  On the batting side you have players like Jordan Danks who is a very athletic outfielder who has improved with his hitting from when he was drafted, but is likely at best a fourth outfielder.  If the Orioles lacked Matt Angle or Kyle Hudson, I could see Danks as a potential selection there.  I do think he has more upside than either.  There are also strong bats like Kody Hinze who is about a year away from being considered as potentially a useful backup player.

Orioles Up for Rule 5 Draft

Orioles' best Rule 5 selection: Paul Blair

The Rule 5 draft was implemented in 1959 as part of a roughly two decade effort to provide an equal footing to all teams.  The concern had been that clubs with a good deal of money were signing up high quality prospects and then letting them fester in the minor leagues.  The first major action against this practice was the bonus rule which 'prevented' teams from demoting signees who had received a large signing bonus.  The bonus rule proved unsatisfactory because teams figured ways around it and there were considered better ways to redistribute talent.  The Rule 5 draft was considered that mechanism.  It works similarly to the Rule 4 draft, but instead of amateurs being selected the teams choose from unprotected minor leaguers.

The current form of the Rule 5 draft was determined with the signing of the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA).  This year's may alter how the Rule 5 is carried out, but I have yet to hear about it.  In 2006, the major change was that an extra year of protection was provided and that enabled teams to evaluate their players for an extra year before exposing them.  In this scenario it would be unlikely to see guys like Johann Santana anymore because that extra year of evaluation will allow the team to see their player grow for another year and determine how he best fits into the organization.

If the CBA rules remain, player eligibility will be:

• Players who were signed at age 19 or older and have been in professional baseball for three years or more (this means players who signed from the 2008 draft or IFA)
• Players who were signed at age 18 or younger and have been in professional baseball for four years or more (this means players who signed from the 2007 draft or IFA)
• All players on the 40 man roster as exempted from the Rule 5 draft

In the remainder of this post, I will touch on a selected few players who were eligible last year and again this year as well as list all of the individuals who are eligible for their first Rule 5 draft.

Previously Eligible
Pat Egan - Brewers selected him last year, but he failed to stick and was unimpressive this year.
Steve Johnson - He is a pitcher who has to learn at every step. Off hand chance he is selected.
Billy Rowell - He has yet to be released from the organization, so he is eligible again.
Wynn Pelzer - Someone might be intrigued, but he is incredibly wild.
Brandon Waring - No one will have space for a poor contact home run hitter who cannot field or walk well.
Tim Bascom - As a 26yo in Bowie, his PoTY season is not incredibly impressive, but he shows more value now than before.  He will likely need to be protected.
Joe Mahoney - Hard time believing he could stick a year in the majors.
Brandon Cooney - Had issues with control this year, but is on a few teams' radar.
John Hester - Good technical catcher with occasional pop.
Cole McCurry - Lefty dominated AA and held his own at AAA.

2007 Draft
Tyler Kolodny - not ready
Justin Moore - not ready

2008 Draft
Greg Miclat - could be useful utility player or fill in at second for a few weeks.

Richard Zagone - may be seen as a lefty reliever.
Caleb Joseph - may be seen as a backup catcher.
Nick Haughian - potential lefty reliever, but not overpowering.
Nathan Moreau - same as above.
Jason Gurka - intriguing lefty arm, possible selection.
Bobby Stevens - not ready
Ronnie Welty - intriguing athleticism, potential 4th outfielder.
Eddie Gamboa - not ready, good organizational arm.
Ryan O'Shea - not ready
Buck Britton - not ready
Oliver Drake - breakout in Frederick tempered by Bowie.



Players I think need to be protected:
Oliver Drake
Greg Miclat
Tim Bascom
Steve Johnson
Cole McCurry


That written, I do not really feel strongly about any of these players.