The Giants and Steve Johnson

Last December we explained why it made complete sense why Steve Johnson was left unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and why he was likely to return to the Orioles. Today, I'd like to explore Johnson's potential for sticking with the Giants this season. First off, the Giants will carry seven arms in their pen. Five are essentially locks to being the season. They include the closer Brian Wilson, whom many compare favorably to Jonathan Broxton. He has a live arm and was successful in the role last year for the Giants. Their set up also return. Jeremy Affeldt and Sergio Romo also had solid years and are definites. In middle relief, Brandon Medders solidified his role last year and Dan Runzler emerged as the minor league Giants pitcher of the year as well as being fairly unhittable in his short time in the Majors last year.

This leaves two slots open for Steve Johnson to fill: middle relief or long relief. With both Runzler and Affeldt as southpaws, Johnson's righthandedness should not impede him. It also helps that his role is one in which very little is expected. Merkin Valdez and Joe Martinez/Ryan Sandowski held down the middle relief and long relief/swingman roles, respectively. Of those players, only Joe Martinez remains. What also works for Johnson is that Giants personnel are very positive about Johnson after watching him for several seasons in the Dodgers' system.

After the jump, Johnson's competition for these two positions and what this may mean for the Orioles.


Todd Wellemeyer, RHRP (has started in the past)
Wellemeyer is a non-roster invite to the Giants camp. He came up as a reliever in the Cubs system. After winding up in St. Louis in midway through 2007, he proceeded to pitch quite effectively as a starter for a year and a half. He kept his strikeouts above 6 per 9 and did well to limit walks. That fell apart last year as he missed awfully few bats. Wellemeyer is something that the Giants brass are known to love . . . veterans. He has pitched for many years and has shown a great degree of competence. Todd Wellemeyer is basically Steve Johnson seven or so years from now.

Joe Martinez, RHRP (has started in the past)
Martinez filled the role of swingman and long relief last year. He did not do well posting a 7.50 ERA over 30 innings. Unless he shows some promise, he most likely will be sent down to AAA and be the first brought up. Based on my math, he should have 2 options left.

Kevin Pucetas, LHP (starter in minors)
Pucetas has rather average pitches, but was shown to pitch quite effectively in low and hi A ball. Last year, the Giants chose to skip him over AA and he proceeded to be rather ineffective at AAA Fresno. A conservative organization would allow him another year to start at Fresno. If the Giants think they are close to the playoffs, they might prefer having another left handed option in the pen. I'd be doubtful that he could start in the Majors with his repertoire.

Waldis Joaquin, RHRP
Joaquin threw 10.2 innings at the Major league level and showed that he could miss bats (10.1 k/9) and strike zones (5.9 bb/9). He tasted the Majors last year after dominating AAA for 8 innings. That may have been an aberration.

Guillermo Mota, RHRP
Mota just signed as an NRI and would be considered for the middle relief position. He is a veteran who has pitched as a closer and setup man. It is the typical M.O. for the Giants organization to employ a player like Mota in the pen. His peripherals have been slightly shaky the past two seasons, but he has been an integral part for the Dodgers and Brewers bullpens. I would be surprised if he did not wind up being the 6th man in the pen.

I doubt any of the non-roster invites will put up much competition to these guys. NRIs: Denny Bautista, Santiago Casilla, Rafael Cova, Steven Edlefsen, Eric Hacker, Osiris Matos, Tony Pena Jr., Felix Romero, Dan Turpen, Craig Whitaker, Craig Clark, and Clayton Tanner.

Who is likely to get the middle relief role?
1. Mota
2. Joaquin
3. Wellemeyer
4. Johnson

Who is likely to get the long relief role?
1. Wellemeyer
2. Martinez
3. Johnson
4. Bautista

I find it near impossible for him to win the last middle relief slot. I find there to be some chance he could stick on in the long relief role. My bet is that Mota and Wellemeyer wind up in these two slots. The Giants tend to embrace veterans and might be reluctant in giving slots for a rookie to hide and take his lumps. I do think the Giants value him and believe they will be looking to trade for him.

What is Steve Johnson worth and what do the Orioles need?
John Sickels rates Steve Johnson as a C+ prospect (all Sickels grades links here AL - NL). In return the Orioles would probably receive a prospect with a similar grade. Areas of organizational need for the Orioles would be second base, short stop, and left-handed relief. The following players fit that criteria:

2B Nick Noonan (C+) - Noonan has his supporters and is thought to be more valued in the Giants front office than elsewhere in baseball. It remains to be seen if they would entertain a straight trade for Johnson. Last season saw Noonan as a 20yo in HiA. Poor contact skills, good plate discipline, average power, below average speed, and very good base running. He seems to be a very smart player. He is a kind of prospect who could break out in the next season or two. He would slot in at AA and compete with Ryan Adams. Both profile as offensive 2B, but Noonan has much more speed. Noonan is an NRI this year.

LHSP Aaron King (C+) - King has a powerful arm and would be shoehorned into a tight starting rotation in Frederick. It might be more realistic though to begin shifting him toward being a potential dominant bullpen arm. The hope would be that pitching from the stretch and focusing on his low 90s sinker. His mechanics are a bit of a mess, so I doubt he will be valued by many as a starter.

LHSP Clayton Tanner (C+) - Tanner is similar to Johnson in that he is a lefty that is better known for pitchability than how impressive his actual pitches are. After repeating HiA and getting hit much harder the second time through (1hr in 2008 vs 18hr in 2009), he still managed to do pretty well. His soft spot was right handers hitting him hard. His FIP against lefties was 3.04, while it was 5.11 against righties. Only one lefties hit a home run off him. He will probably start in AA, but is beginning to look like someone who will eventually be shifted to a LOOGY role.

SS Ehire Adrianza (C) - His raw tools are very solid. His glove is excellent. He has an athletic body that can probably put on another 10-15 pounds. He also has shown very good plate discipline. At 19, he held his own quite well in loA with a 258/333/327 line. His contact rate is not good and I doubt he will develop much power. That said, a young SS with a solid glove and good discipline is a rare find.

SS Brandon Crawford (C) - Crawford, as you many remember, was our 4th round selection in the 2008 shadow draft we ran in real time. His glove is solid and compares rather well with Adrianza's. Both should be MLB quality in their defense. His bat? Back in 2008 we wrote this:

Dating back to the Cape, he has been pressing rather than letting his game flow naturally. As his struggled continued, he pressed harder -- regularly lunging at pitches and frequently showing signs of frustration. He has demonstrated a potential for plus-power, but he'll have to improve his contact rate to realize it.

In HiA, Crawford was either excellent or was no match for the pitching at that level. He broke out with a 371/445/600 line in 105 at bats showing off very good power. He was then promoted to AA and struggled. He struck out 25% of the time. Had difficulty earning walks. He did show some gap power (ISO - .107), but nothing very extraordinary. It would probably benefit him repeating AA. He needs to show better plate discipline and a better contact rate. In the Baltimore system, he will be having to share time with Pedro Florimon, Jr., whom the Orioles seem to favor.

Who would I want?
1. Ehire Adrianza
2. Nick Noonan
3. Brandon Crawford
4. Aaron King
5. Clayton Tanner

I think the Giants would probably look to move Crawford or King from that group.

Why was Steve Johnson not protected?

The Rule 5 draft was this morning and Steve Johnson was selected with the 15th pick by the San Francisco Giants. First, here are the results from the Major League portion:

1. Washington (traded to NYY) Jamie Hoffman OF from LAD
Fast, gap power, good eye. Cabrera or Gardner being traded?
2. Pittsburgh John Raynor OF from FLA
Speed, decent defense, weak arm, high K rate, was FLA's 9th ranked prospect last year.
3. Baltimore (traded to TEX) Ben Snyder LHP from SFG
Decent power arm, struggled as a starter, found himself as a reliever last year.
4. Kansas City Edgar Osuna LHP from ATL
The Atlanta to Kansas City *talent* highway is still chugging along.
5. Cleveland Hector Ambriz RHP from ARZ
Has struggled as a starter, maybe the Indians find some life as a reliever.
6. Arizona Zach Kroenke LHP from NYY
Rumored to go first, gets selected for the second year in a row.
7. New York Mets (traded to LAD) Carlos Monasterios RHP from PHI
Has a solid sinker and nothing else.
8. Houston (traded to FLA) Jorge Jimenez from BOS
Decent eye and contact skills. No defense. Finishes Lindstrom trade.
9. Oakland Bobby Cassevah RHP from LAAA
70% ground ball rate. Walks 5/9.
10. Toronto Zechry Zinicola RHP from WAS
Decent fastball . . . poor secondary pitches.
11. Milwaukee Chuck Lofgren LHP from CLE
Never has lived up to potential. Maybe a switch to the bullpen will help.
12. Chicago White Sox Michael Parisi RHP from StL
Squint hard and see Jamie Moyer . . . Moyer is never a good comp.
13. Tampa Bay Armando Zerpa LHP from BOS
Trying to jump from A-ball.
14. Seattle Kanekoa Texeira RHP from NYY
Was traded last year in the Swisher deal with the ChiSox
15. San Franscisco Steve Johnson RHP from BAL
Extreme flyball pitcher with average pitches. Has succeeded at every level.
16. St. Louis Ben Jukick LHP from CIN
27, good breaking ball, not much else.
17. Philadelphia Ken Herndon RHP from LAAA
Not sure how he would fit in the Phillies bullpen. Good sinker.

I will be ignoring the minor league portions as they are really about filling out MiL rosters and nothing else.

After the jump, I will discuss why I think leaving Johnson off the 40 man roster makes sense.


Here is my basic thought process on why it made sense to leave Johnson off the 40 man roster. First, Johnson is a fringe prospect. Do not get me wrong, he has some worth, but he has several things working against him. His main value is in his pitchability. He *knows* how to pitch, but the concern is that more polished hitters will tee off him. His pitches are not special and he has a horrific fly ball rate. These strongly suggest a pitcher who will be crushed at the Major League level. After spending less than half a season in AA, he just is not ready. A weak, but fair, comparison would be Garrett Olson. When you rely that much on pitching to the zone, you have to be flawless. Most guys just are not successful doing it.

Second, it frees up a roster slot. Johnson is probably the Orioles 8th to 13th best pitching prospect and 10th to 20th best prospect overall. As mentioned before, he really has no place on a team's 25 man roster, but he does pose a strong argument to being at the backend of a team's 40 man roster. This put the Orioles in a unique position where they could leave Johnson unprotected (off the 40 man), giving them in essence a 41 man roster. This is pretty useful as it adds flexibility in signing free agents and trading players. If Johnson was protected and at a later point in time, we hit a roster crunch after guys like Tatum, Bass, or Hughes were discarded . . . then Johnson could have been in a position to be waived. In such a case, another team could make a claim and put him on their 40 man roster instead of the 25 man roster as the rule 5 designation dictates. It is a high leverage move.

So third? Why protect guys like Rhyne Hughes and Brian Bass? Well, they both have potential value as filler on the MLB roster in April, but they are also useful in that they can be easily waived. A 40 man roster is often composed of useful, wanted players as well as guys who are on the fringe. Guys whose role is to take a few at bats or innings until someone else is ready. Guys who can be waived without much thought and not raise much ire when they are placed on someone else's 40 man roster. Guys who can be DFA'd and go back to Norfolk. This kind of player often exists on the backend of a 40 manroster. Steve Johnson is not this kind of player. Johnson has potential future worth.

Best Case Scenario for the Orioles: Steve Johnson washes out with the Giants, passed through waivers, and is offered back to us for 25k.

Worst Case Scenario for the Orioles: Johnson sticks with the Giants or some other team and we lose our 8th to 13th best pitching prospect.

Rule 5 . . . blah

The rule 5 draft used to be mildly interesting. Unfortunately with the last issue of the collective bargaining agreement, the Rule 5 was made somewhat unimportant. With an extra year tacked onto team control before players are forced for 40 man roster consideration, prospects are basically ready for the upper minors and far more projectable than with a year less of information on them.

For those who may be confused by the Rule 5 draft and who is available, here is a short primer:

A. Who is available?
It would be nice to have a simple list of players available for the Rule 5, but I can find no immediate source and it would be tedious to do this. Also, pretty worthless as most value prospects have been protected by this point. In lieu of that, I will present the rules.

1. If a player is signed to his first professional contract at the age of 18 or younger, then he is available to be drafted on the fifth year of the draft. In other words, he is protected for four Rule 5 drafts. An example would be the Orioles Steve Johnson. He was drafted by the Dodgers in 2005 and signed at the age of 17. He was protected from the Rule 5 in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008. His fifth draft is this year's and he would have had to have been protected on the 40 man roster if the Orioles had wanted to ensure his place in the organization next year.
2. If a player is signed to his first professional contract at the age of 19 or later, he is protected through three drafts. In other words, one less year than if he had signed under the terms in part 1.
3. If a player has exceeded this time frame, he is once again available. For instance, Chad Moeller was signed to a MiL deal by the Orioles this past week. He is not on the 40 man and has long been protected from the Rule 5. He can be selected.

After the jump, players of some interest.

Here is a short list of some players of interest:

C Koby Clemens, Houston
There really are no truly desirable options here. Clemens presents the best situation for upside as he has power and does project as a potentially adequate defensive catcher. The problem is that he is in no way ready to handle catching duties in the Majors and his bat is wholly untested with only 17 at bats above HiA ball. He is no longer in Houston's plans, so perhaps the play would be to draft him and hope to work a deal out. Not much use.

1B Danny Dorn, Cincinnati
He is a first baseman by default as he has no true defensive position. Ideally, he would be a DH, but it is incredibly rare to find any team willing to set a rookie bat at DH. He has been able to hit the ball deep at every rung in the minors, but he stands no chance against left handed pitchers. Ideally, he would find himself hidden on the bench pulling backup duty and situational starts against right handed pitchers. Not a great talent, but certainly someone who stands a chance at being a late bloomer.

2B Ryan Mount, Anaheim
Mount has had difficulty remaining healthy during his career. This has not helped him establish himself in the Angels system as others have leap frogged him in the organizational depth chart. It might provide some incentive for a team selecting him in that injuries might force him to the DL and make him somewhat easier to hold onto. That probably is never a good reason to select anyone in the Rule 5. He profiles as a below average defensive second baseman with good power potential and the flexibility to play third base on occasion. The flexibility may make it easier for a team to keep him on the 25 man roster.

3B Johnny Whittleman, Texas
Whittleman was originally seen as a someone who could stick at third base and develop into a high average, high OBP player with above average power. What has happened in that his defense has not made great gains and he really cannot be expected to play at a MLB level there. His contact skills have also not evolved where people thought they would be. His power is about where everyone thought it would wind up with him average a homerun to every 10 hits he collects. His plate patience is off the charts good. His numbers really give the appearance of Jack Cust when Cust was suffering from carpal tunnel syndrome. A simple surgery may not make Whittleman into a MLer this year. Another year in the minors and he may develop some more. He needs another season or two and it probably won't help much.

SS Blake Davis, Baltimore
He has always been viewed as an offense first shortstop. He has shown average contact skills and gap power with a decent eye. His defense has been tolerable. At Norfolk last year, he felt apart with a 542 ops in about 200 plate appearance. Every positive aspect of his game was not present and, after some internal issues, he was sent home for the year. Not exactly the kind of player to put your hopes into as a Rule 5 guy.

OF John Shelby, Chicago
If an outfielder will be selected, it will probably be someone who would be capable of playing multiple positions including center. Shelby is the player who bests fits that criteria. Until this past season, he has typically shown a good contact rate and poor plate discipline. That reversed this past season with good plate discipline and a poor contact rate. Through this, he still hits the ball hard. He has some speed and could fill in at second or third in a pinch. He might be plucked.

P Craig Baker, Colorado
Baker will be 25 next year and has never pitched in AA. That said he had one of the best slider in the California League this past season. He profiles as a late blooming back end rotation arm. He keeps the ball on the ground, does not give up hits, strikes out 10+/9 and kept walks to 3/9 this past season. He looks like a solid pickup for an extra arm in the pen. The jump from HiA will probably be daunting, but is probably possible.

P Yohan Pino, Cleveland
Pino was included in the Pavano trade last summer. He put up great numbers in AAA last season as a starter, but is a fly ball pitcher. He has a high K rate and a low walk rate, so that should be helpful in a middle relief role and perhaps an occasional start. Even though he has performed well, questions still remain. He throws only in the high 80s and is right handed. He gets by with a solid mix of good curveballs and good sliders. It just is not a profile many people give many opportunities.

P Steve Johnson, Baltimore
Johnson has performed well wherever he has thrown. He has done this with polish and pitchability. He has not down this with any impressive pitches. Add his average offerings to an extreme flyball rate and you have some questions about what Johnson could do at the Major League level. Still, he has always found a way to pitch effectively at every level he has pitched at, so maybe someone goes old school and values guts, grit, and determination. I think he would be difficult to swallow in the pen for an entire season.

P Bobby Cassevah, Anaheim
Cassevah does not strike out many. He walks about as many as he strikes outs. Basically, he walks and ks about 4 to 5 men every 9 innings. What is impressive about him is that he induces groundballs 70% of the time. He was able to do that at AA. That is impressive. In 270 MiL innings, he has only given up 6 home runs. That should be enough to make someone try to hide him for a full season. With such an extreme groundball rate and such a low homerun rate, he probably would have a lot of rope.