12 October 2017

2017/18 BORAS Position Player Contract Projections: I Tried

As much as I have been impressed by the performance of my BORAS pitcher contract projections, I have been pretty equally unimpressed with last year's position player projection.  To be clear, the models are different.  Different inputs, obviously, which for pitchers track well, but is still a mess for position players.  One of the major issues is that fielding ability is measured differently by each team and can vary significantly over the years even within one club.  There may also be some deviation in what kind of skills are appreciated over the years being more dynamic than it is for pitchers.

Long story short, we will be using these contract projections, but the model is not the strongest.  Anyway, we will still be using these figures to inform our 2017/18 Blueprint series.  Tomorrow, I will post more information about that and invite our readers to provide their own blueprints in addition to the ones our writers are developing.  At the end, I will review them and choose what I think makes the most sense moving forward.

Here are the position player projections:

Alex Avila 31 3 34.1
Welington Castillo 31 2 24.4
Nick Hundley 34 1 8.9
Chris Ianetta 35 1 8.7
Jonathan Lucroy 32 1 10.9
Yonder Alonso 31 2 18.7
Lucas Duda 32 2 19.6
Eric Hosmer 28 4 61.2
Adam Lind 34 1 7.9
Mitch Moreland 32 2 21.4
Logan Morison 30 3 34.8
Mark Reynolds 34 1 9.5
Carlos Santana 32 3 45.2
Howie Kendrick 34 1 10.6
Neil Walker 32 2 22.3
Zack Cozart 32 4 59.3
Todd Frazier 32 3 50.6
Mike Moustakas 29 3 34.2
Eduardo Nunez 31 2 20.8
Jarrod Dyson 33 2 25.2
Curtis Granderson 37 1 12.7
Jonathan Jay 33 1 9.2
JD Martinez 30 4 64.8
Cameron  Maybin 31 2 21.8
Justin Upton 30 5 83.9
Lorenzo Cain 32 5 92.2
Carlos Gomez 32 2 21.2
Austin Jackson 31 2 21.8
Jay Bruce 31 3 30.1
Carlos Gonzalez 32 1 8.6


Unknown said...

You failed! 3 years, 34 million for Avila?! BAHAHAHAHA! 1 year removed from a 11, yes 11, RBI SEASON!

Unknown said...

As funny, Cain, 92.2, pass tour pipe!

Jon Shepherd said...

I try to find value in every point of view. Sometimes I just never seem to figure out what that value is. I will keep trying.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure I buy Frazier over Moustakas, but this may be because I'm not as focused on D metrics. I hear Mous is not a great defender. But I know other pundits think that Frazier will get fewer years and less money than Mous.

Pip said...

You have an excellent sense of humor, and I appreciate your patience, especially with me.
I remain convinced that Dan's success with pitching, such as it is, is this so in frequent as to be attributable to luck.
For every Wei Yen Chen, there are too many Suk Min Yoons.

Jon Shepherd said...

I guess my view is basically that when he chooses a pitcher that things work out more often or not, but when he lets the market settle to sign a pitcher no one else wanted then he tends to have acquired a pitcher who then shows why no one wanted him.

The whole wait and see FA approach has largely been a failure or irrelevant.

Unknown said...

To the Marlins, Chen might as well be Suk Min Toon!

Anonymous said...

Jon, I agree 100% with the wait and see approach being a dead end more often than not. I also think FA players may respond better to clubs coming and saying "you're the one I want" as opposed to "ok, we'll take you cuz no one else will".