31 August 2017

Monster-cini: Projecting Trey Mancini's Next Ten Years

One of the shining bright spots this year has been the emergence of Trey Mancini as a bona fide major leaguer.  It has been a development that has surprised many in the field.  Mancini has a solid approach, a shorter swing than in the past, and has overcome problems others have foreseen with his decreasing athleticism.  Yes, his time in the outfield seems to be dictated more by the presence of Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis than by any actual ability to play left field, but when you have a decent bat then the manager needs to find you a place to play.

Looking forward, it may be useful to try to envision who Mancini might well be.  Using his current line:

Standard Batting
Year Age Tm PA HR BA OBP SLG
201624BAL153.357.4001.071
201725BAL45822.295.345.513
2 Yr2 Yr2 Yr47325.297.347.531
162 162 162 62833.297.347.531
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/30/2017.

I tried to find batters aged 25 with similar profiles.  The closest statistical profiles I found were: Rico Brogna, Mike Young, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Richie Sexson, Mike Marshall, Cory Snyder, Stephen Drew (?), Raul Mondesi, and Al Martin.  I used this population to predict the average outcome for Mancini each year.  What we get is below:

Year Age PA HR AVG OBP SLG WAR
2018 26 515 22 .269 .332 .468 2.3
2019 27 561 23 .272 .341 .477 2.8
2020 28 538 21 .274 .350 .468 2.8
2021 29 433 17 .283 .347 .481 2.4
2022 30 485 18 .267 .337 .455 2.1
2023 31 411 15 .258 .320 .444 1.3
2024 32 417 14 .251 .318 .424 1.0
2025 33 317 11 .249 .319 .421 0.7
2026 34 310 8 .227 .291 .363 -0.2
2027 35 273 7 .210 .270 .338 -0.7

The above projection would be rather ideal for the club even though the first two seasons will experience some redundancy with Davis and Trumbo both around.  However, it is more than likely that Mancini should be able to slide into 1B or DH in 2020 depending on how Chris Davis ages.  This version of Mancini is the kind of player a team like the Orioles will need if they chose to throw down trailers full of cash at Machado.

Now, what would an exceptional career look like?  I took the above pool and cut it in half and kept the five players with the best career moving forward.What would a best outcome career look like? I took Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez, Richie Sexson, Raul Mondesi, and Al Martin.

YearAgePAHRAVGOBPSLGWAR
20182660731.291.357.4214.3
20192761730.284.366.5184.7
20202869431.288.375.5065.3
20212948323.304.371.5384.0
20223062528.277.353.4883.7
20233164426.272.335.4793.1
20243255421.270.344.4632.8
20253342418.268.348.4622.1
20263442513.242.313.3960.5
2027353329.228.297.372-0.1

That would be a stunning career and one that would keep the playoff window open for the club in the years to come.  That said, let's do a different sub-grouping.  That sub-grouping would be the low walk, high strikeout group: Raul Mondesi, Cory Snyder, Richie Sexson, Rico Brogna, and Mike Marshall.

YearAgePAHRAVGOBPSLGWAR
20182648724.259.311.4711.8
20192754922.264.310.4561.6
20202855624.256.323.4582.1
20212941016.265.321.4561.5
20223047418.253.326.4441.6
20233135314.243.309.4330.7
20243238313.233.296.4000.2
2025332456.216.278.343-0.5
2026342657.199.255.329-0.9
2027352787.189.244.312-1.4

Let us pretend I did not run those numbers.  However, he would still be a useful role player.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

In predicting a players future outcome, wouldn't a considerable factor be the level of consistency? What we have learned so far in Trey's early career is that his production level hasn't experienced much change in variation over the course of the season. He's a pretty steady hitter posting an OPS of .892 in the first half vs a .815 OPS during the second half. Very small sample size of course, but he has avoided multiple slumps which is a good sign.

Compare his production to that of a streak hitter like Chris Davis, who seemingly turns hot or cold depending on which half the season he's playing in or even from month to month. This has been the case with Chris for most of his career, save the 2014 season where he was just consistently terrible. It's all panned out to a career slash line of .248/.329/.493.

Shouldn't Trey's early consistency play up to a more favorable future production line?

Jon Shepherd said...

True, a season is an arbitrary time frame and one can seek different lengths of resolution. That said, there is evidence that suggests big second halfs do not change projection paths. Knowing that, I doubt a lack of slumps means anything different. However, I would suggest that Mancini has experienced a couple slumps with a length of a couple weeks.