Looking Ahead: What Should the Orioles Do With Tim Beckham?

The O’s kicked off the week with an ugly loss, but the Slam it Like Beckham 2017 tour continues to chug along at a steady pace. 

The infielder again tapped into his power stroke, connecting in the bottom of the first for a home run measured at 376 feet.  The opposite-field blast extended his career high to 19, and marked his 7^th in 33 games with Baltimore.

It seems all Beckham has done is rake since he’s arrived.  He’s won over teammates and fans with his stellar play.  Likewise, Baltimore’s promo department wasted no time cashing in the hype (hence Monday’s t-shirt giveaway). 

So, has the first pick of the 2008 draft tapped into some fountain of potential?  Or is he riding an unsustainable wave of good fortune whose apex is bound to crash at any moment? 

The answer, as usual, probably lies somewhere in between.  The real question is, how does Mr. Beckham fit into the club’s long-term plans?

To me, there are two avenues that make sense: double down or cash out.  AKA, discuss the viability of a long term contract or explore the off-season trade market.

Option A: Double Down

Baseball contracts are like grains in a sieve, constantly shifting.  One thing’s for sure: if you’re sold on something, you should try your best to lock it down.  After all, yesterday’s overpay may turn out to be tomorrow’s bargain, when adjusted for salary inflation.

With that in mind, if the Orioles believe Tim Beckham is their guy, they should look to buy him out of his arbitration years.  It could be a three-year year deal with a club option totaling $25-30 million.

Beckham’s play, thus far, has been other-worldly.  His return ticket to planet Earth will be scheduled any day now.  Even in the event he completely regresses, however, the modest commitment wouldn’t be back-breaking to the organization.

What you’re buying into is the upside: that offensively he’s a poor man’s Jonathan Schoop with slightly better wheels.  That defensively he can hold down the fort at short, with the versatility to slide over to second or third in a pinch.  If he can do all that, he’ll be a bargain in that price range. 

So, what’s the incentive for the Beckham camp to willingly sign off on a deal that could leave millions on the table?  Well, they have access to the same regression models as everyone else.  They have to figure Beckham’s not going to hit .394 all season, as he did for the month of August.  Why not cash in and lock in multi-generational security for his family?  

Besides, the Orioles are paying J.J. Hardy’s cadaver $12.5 million.  I think they could scrape together some change from under the proverbial couch cushion to pay for Beckham.   

Option B: Cash Out

On the other hand, there may not be a better time for the Orioles to flip their new acquisition than this coming off-season.

With their most-recent impressions of Beckham being his second-half surge, opposing general managers will have to listen with at least feigned-interest should Baltimore come calling.  

And, if the interest is expressed the other way around, the Orioles can’t afford not to listen.  Their farm system lacks blue chippers at virtually every position.  Simply put, it needs massive work.  

In the meanwhile, they could sign a serviceable veteran to keep the fires warm until minor-leaguer Ryan Mountcastle proves he’s ready for the show.   

It’s highly doubtful this scenario would happen, mainly because the Orioles are philosophically-opposed to trading established players.  Also, Beckham seems to fit their idea of coveted player perfectly (low walk rate, average power, high K-percentage).  Still, it’s an avenue worth at least exploring.  

Crowded House: How A Prospect's Imminent Arrival Will Affect Lineup Decisions

An announced crowd of 4,116 gathered at Prince George’s Stadium, Sunday night, to witness hometown Bowie take on Portland. 

The Baysox are in a battle for first place, but it was also an opportunity for fans to catch one last glimpse of outfielder Anthony Santander before his Rule 5-mandated promotion on Thursday.  He didn’t disappoint, going 2 for 4 with a home run, showcasing the talent that has him ranked in the upper-echelon of the Orioles’ farm system.

MLB.com currently lists Santander as Baltimore’s ninth-best prospect.  He’s raw, but obviously the power potential is there.  He’s listed at just 6-2, 190, but reportedly looks bigger out on the field.  And, at 22, he may continue to grow into that frame. 

A 2011, international signing by Cleveland, Santander is a switch-hitter, can take a walk, and has the ability to play both corner outfield spots, as well as first base.  As stated before, he needs reps - especially with all the time he has lost to injury. 

Personally, I hate the Rule 5 draft.  While it’s worked out for clubs such as the Orioles in the past (see Flaherty, Ryan), it usually ends up stunting the growth of the key principles involved.  A year of potential development is instead spent rotting away on a Major League bench somewhere. 

With the end of the season closing in, Baltimore will also have the ability to preserve Santander’s rookie status.  That, coupled with the Orioles’ logjams at his natural positions, removes almost any incentive for Showalter to pencil his name in more than once a week.

The players ahead of Santander on the pecking order are some guys named Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith and Trey Mancini.  You’ve probably heard of them, as well as Davis’much-chronicled struggles this year. 

My perfect scenario involves benching Davis, slotting Mancini to first and letting Santander take his lumps in left field.  This, of course, will not happen.  A) Davis is not being paid $21 million dollars to occupy the pine and B) Baltimore still harbors dreams of capturing a wild card spot.  Teams with playoff aspirations don’t tend to hand out starting gigs to unproven rookies. 

To compound matters further, Ryan Flaherty and J.J. Hardy are also approaching the expiration dates on their rehab assignments (though, reportedly, Hardy may need more time on the shelf).  Their return throws the infield into further flux, as Jonathan Schoop and the red-hot Tim Beckham will continue to dominate playing time at second base and shortstop, respectively.

Hardy is making $14 million, in the last year of his contract.  If he’s healthy, the front office will demand his initials be written in the line-up, forgoing the awkward conversation about whether or not that decision holds merit.   

To satisfy everyone’s hunger for playing time, Baltimore could shuffle some of those at-bats to the DH-slot.  Unfortunately, Trumbo – who isn’t exactly setting the world on fire himself – will be spending most of the time clogging up playing time there.    

Meanwhile, cut to a shot of Craig Gentry, Joey Rickard and Ruben Tejada getting completely lost in the complex shuffle.  If the trio is demoted to make room for current DL’ers (and assuming they aren’t lost to waivers), count on at least one of them returning after September 1^st. 

The list of mouths to feed is growing.  Anthony Santander’s hometown is Margarita, Venezuela.  Buck Showalter may need to down one or two adult beverages of the same name to devise a playing-time strategy that is fair to all players involved. 

So you're telling me there's a chance!

There a lot of ways you can sum up the Orioles 2017 season.  Most of them involve colorful, four-letter words.  In times of insanity, sometimes we must comfort ourselves with humor, lest bleakness envelope us completely.  So, let’s sprinkle in a few quotes from the timeless (and aptly-titled) Farrelly-brothers classic, Dumb and Dumber. 

Do you want to hear the most-annoying sound in the world? 

For baseball fans, it has to be the sound from a front office in denial.  For weeks, the Orioles’ brass has done a good job talking out of both sides of their mouths, promising both fire-sale and contention in practically the same breath.

We live in the bright and glorious age of advanced metrics and baby-faced, whip-smart general managers.  Despite this, it often feels like the Orioles’ baseball department procures their analysis from the contents of a crumpled-up newspaper. 

Here’s a neat fact: Fangraphs pegs the Orioles with a 3% chance of grabbing a wild card slot (sterling when compared to their .4% chance of winning the division).  To add insult to injury, even the last place Blue Jays have better odds.

Baseball fans aren’t stupid.  They can spot a dud when they see one.  Look no further than the Orioles’ middling attendance numbers, this season (26,704, 19^th in MLB).  And yet, there was Dan Duquette, on Monday, confidently informing reporters that Baltimore is going for it. 

While the quote sounds like a man trying his best to get fired, long-tenured Orioles fans can detect the strong whiff of ownership behind the rhetoric. 

I do believe the Orioles will play better down the stretch – not so much because of their controversial-acquisitions, but because the law of averages states the overall-talent of this club is too great to play .429 ball, as they did in May and June. 

Still, when your best-case scenario involves an appearance in a one-game-playoff, it’s time to burn the ships and rebuild with the future in mind.  The Orioles have done neither, failing to capitalize on expendable assets (Zach Britton, Brad Brach) and going out and acquiring players who will have little to no re-sale value. 

The perfect epitaph for the Orioles’ season is the quote from this gem of a D&D scene.

Well, minus the whole redeeming part.  Redeeming implies light at the end of a dark tunnel.  It would mean that all this agony would someday be worth it.  There is little to no evidence that will be the case.  

Orioles Can't Hit Breaking Pitches To Save Their Lives

On the third of April, Mark Trumbo kicked off the 2017 Orioles’ season in dramatic fashion: a walk-off home run in extra innings.  The Birds were undefeated and Eutaw Street was euphoric.  Ah, the good old days.

On the fourth of April, I wrote a column about Mr. Trumbo, warning that his struggles against breaking pitches might ultimately undo his murderous-prowess against straight stuff. 

Well, that malaise seems to have caught on with the whole club.  On Sunday, that ineptitude was on display against the Chicago Cubs and their shiny-new toy, Jose Quintana.  In his debut, Quintana made short work of the Orioles, fanning twelve in seven innings of work. 

The Orioles seemed particularly befuddled by the Colombian lefty’s curveball.  They swung at 46% of such offerings, but whiffed nearly a third of those instances.  It’s not an isolated incident, either. 

Breaking pitches have been a bugaboo for the Orioles’ batters, all season.  In fact, they’re probably better off NOT swinging at them at all.  Here’s how some of the Orioles’ mainstays have fared against curveballs, thus far:

Trouble With The Curve 

• Seth Smith (31.92% Whiff/Swing, .190 BAA, .066 ISO)
• Manny Machado (32.34% Whiff/Swing, .213 BAA, .142 ISO)
• Mark Trumbo (36.46% Whiff/Swing, .212 BAA, .182 ISO)
• Welington Castillo (37.00% Whiff/Swing, .220 BAA, .093 ISO)
• Adam Jones (37.58% Whiff/Swing, .260 BAA, .156 ISO)
• Jonathan Schoop (37.66% Whiff/Swing, .215 BAA, .199 ISO)
• Trey Mancini (41.89% Whiff/Swing, .206 BAA, .000 ISO)
• Chris Davis (43.91% Whiff/Swing, .187 BAA, .170 ISO)

Even the world’s best hitters aren’t expected to hit the moon against some of the nastier offerings MLB pitchers have to offer.  As Barry Bonds once said, “If you make your pitch, you can get me out.” 

The Orioles’ line-up is heavy on sluggers, waiting for a bit of dead-red heat to jack into the stratosphere.  The result: as a club, they rank in the “top” ten in baseball for strikeouts, and are in the bottom five for walks.  The approach sorely needs some refinement. 

Of course, it’s easy for someone like me to sit back and tell them they should sit on pitches.  However, if the Orioles can temper their aggression a bit – and lay off a few pitches that end in the dirt – maybe they can start working some counts in their favor and stop striking out so darn much.   

Why McDowell?

Every year, the pure genius of Seinfeld slips further and further from the beating pulse of popular culture.  The once-iconic sitcom is in the danger zone of being relegated to Andy Griffith-status, for those 25 and under.  

Sure, the scenery and technology may not have aged well, but the simple genius driving Larry David's program about nothing still kills it, for those who are willing to dive back into a world of beepers, it brought us gems like this.

The man with the mustache is, of course, the unforgettable Keith Hernandez.  And, in the “flashback”, that is Roger McDowell: the real spitter *spoiler alert*.  And, yes, that is the same McDowell who currently presides over the burning garbage of the Baltimore Orioles’ pitching staff. 

Right now, poor McDowell must feel that he’s trapped on the barge of some hellish sitcom, awaiting cancellation. 

In the latest episode, Wade Miley starred as “shellacked individual number four."  It took him 67 1.2 innings pitched, with 7 hits, 2 walks and 7 earned runs on just 67 pitches.  All that was missing was the canned laughter. 

It takes a special kind of efficiency to achieve such rotten results in such a short period of time.  Anyone who can read the back of Miley’s baseball card knows that such dastardly deeds are his specialty.

Sure, every now and then, he’ll pull a gem from the clutches of his rear end.  Those who believe those short bursts of success to be anything more than a sun-kissed mirage have been drinking too much of Dan Duquette’s kool-aid. 

The Orioles have just weathered a horrific month of June.  The ineptitude included an AL-record, 20-straight games allowing five or more runs.

The carnage totaled 186 runs allowed.  The last time a Baltimore pitching staff allowed that many enemy runners to cross the plate was during George W.’s second term.  In September 2007, Daniel Cabrera and company allowed an astounding 202 runs. 

Before that, you had to go all the way back to June 1987 (186 runs allowed) to find a month so horrid. 

I stopped my runs research there.  After all, there’s something uncomfortably-morbid about poking around these stats – like reading bar tab statements of an alcoholic.

On the bright side, while the ‘87 Orioles went 5-23 in that month, their 2017 counterparts went 12-16, so it could be worse, right?

Moral victories won’t do much to save McDowell’s job, however, should the losses continue to mount.  Baltimore, under Buck Showalter’s direction, has certainly not been reticent to make changes at pitching coach.  In fact, McDowell is the sixth man to assume that responsibility since Showalter took over. 

Fair or not, hitting and pitching coaches usually get the ax when a club is under-performing.  And, under-performing they are.  The most troubling piece of evidence against retaining McDowell’s services is that the talent atop the rotation continues to take deep strides backwards. 

Here are Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy’s 2016 numbers held up against those from the current season:

2016

Gausman: 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.77 XFIP

Bundy: 8.53 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 4.61 XFIP

2017

Gausman: 7.3 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 5.03 XFIP

Bundy: 6.99 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, 5.22 XFIP

Bundy has cut his walks, but is allowing fly-balls (and home runs) at a much higher rate.  Whether this season’s problems have been mechanical or mental in nature, they don’t seem to be improving. 

Barring a miraculous turnaround, it is likely the Orioles will push the reset button yet again, this winter – if not sooner.  It wouldn’t be unwarranted; his Baltimore body of work is far from inspiring. 

Still, on days like Monday, you can’t help but feel for the guy.  

Should the Orioles Consider Trading that Machado Guy?

By now, you've probably seen or read David Schoenfield's column, adorned with the splashy headline: "Real or Not?  The Orioles should trade Manny Machado..."  Believe it or not, I have a few cents to weigh on the issue (and, I promise it won't be as rant-y as Monday).  

Before we begin to address this, let's preface the discussion with the reality that - even with their June free-fall - the Birds sit a mere 2.5 games out of the Wild Card.  So, in essence, they are really just one good week away from forestalling this conversation.  

Peter Angelos has been historically-adverse to the idea of selling, fearing repercussions at the box office.  Trading Manny, or even putting him on the market, would raise the biggest white flag possible.

As Mr. Schoenfield points out, rival-GM's aren't exactly camping out on Dan Duquette's doorstep to inquire about anyone else.  The list of Baltimore's needs dwarfs their assets.  And, unfortunately for them, other clubs know this.  

That, coupled with Manny's early-season struggles, will depress his value.  If he was killing the ball, right now, it would be a different conversation.  But, even a high school economics student could tell you it's bad business to sell off a stock when it's low.  

Having said all that, it's still Manny Machado.  Elite third basemen don't grow on trees, or at least any  botanical species I know of.  The main factor affecting trades is that his impending free-agency limits the number of clubs who would be interested.  Also, the other team would have to have a need on the left side of the infield.

And, they would have to believe one or both of the following items:

1) They will be contenders either this season or next

2) They think they can sign him to a long-term deal

On Baltimore's side, they would start negotiations by asking for the moon.  Their goal, first and foremost, should be to add as many blue-chip prospects as possible, in order to prop up their flimsy farm system.

Personally, given the Orioles' recent track record of developing and nurturing pitchers, I hope they make position players the centerpiece of any deal.  These days, clubs are holding on tight to those types of players.  Baltimore could reasonably expect to receive one A prospect and maybe one or two B-/C+ types in return.  

The number of teams that meet all those factors is pretty low.  My colleague, Matt Kremnitzer, wrote out one such scenario yesterday.  Houston would be an intriguing trade partner.  Here are a few scenarios with two other clubs: St. Louis and (yes) those damned New York Yankees. 

If they were going the pitching route, the Cardinals have a pair of SP prospects on the cusp of the big leagues in Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver.  The Cardinals aren't always big swingers on the trade market, but may feel pressure from their fan-base and/or ownership to shake things up after watching the Cubs become darlings of their division. 

As for a deal involving the Yankees, I understand the emotions as well as the practical issues involved (17 games against a motivated Manny = yikes).  However, they do have the trifecta of positional need (no offense to Chase Headley), positional prospects galore and, yes, gobs of money.  With the Yankees in contention for the pennant, would they consider parting with one or two of the following: Clint Frazier/Blake Rutherford/Gleyber Torres?

Obviously, this is all hypothetical.  Debating the merits of trades is probably America's second-favorite pastime.  As the clock continues to tick, the noise around Manny will only increase.    

When It Rains, It Empties

In December 2013, my beloved Washington Redskins played snowy hosts to the Kansas City Chiefs. They were massacred 45-10. And, honestly, it wasn't even that close.

Even worse, however, the stands looked barren. By halftime, a good portion of that already tiny fraction had dissolved, save for the odd pocket of Chiefs fans.

In what turned out to be a crummy, three-win season, that game was probably rock bottom. And, I’ll never forget the image of all those empty, red seats, staring tauntingly out onto the frost-swept field.

There was no snow on Monday night in Baltimore, but you’d think a full-scale blizzard had hit town, judging by the rows and rows of empty seats clearly visible on the telecast.

I was stuck watching the game from behind the bar I work at. Otherwise I definitely would have considered hiking it around the Beltway to catch the game. Who would want to pass up a chance to see the clubs’ aces (Dylan Bundy and Corey Kluber) lock proverbial pitching horns?

Instead, less than 14,000 fans showed up to see the home team get waxed, 12-0. Halfway through the game, it looked like the head count barely scraped the echelon of four figures. That’s not just sobering, it’s embarrassing.

I found myself having flashbacks to that Chiefs game. Heck, even the MARLINS drew a crowd northwards of 20,000 tonight.

I’m not sure what the disconnect is. Maybe it’s the tailspin that’s seen the club tumble from first to its current residency in a tie for fourth place. Maybe fans have grown tired of the never-ending stream of lackluster pitchers parading out to the mound at Camden Yards.

Whatever the case, it doesn’t excuse nights like tonight. Maybe it would in Tampa Bay or Oakland, but not here, with a rich tradition of winning. Support your team Baltimore.

Tanner Scott: Coming To A Bullpen Near You

Don’t look now, but we’re about a third of the way through the 2017 regular season already.  At this rate, it feels like the halfway point will be here tomorrow. 

With fifty-plus games in the books, teams will start giving hard looks at their pitcher usage.  October is a long ways off, and it behooves wannabe contenders to plan so they arrive at that sacred land with their best relievers still relatively-fresh.

The Orioles will (at least hopefully) fall into the camp.  Despite the recent slide, they are still less than five games out of first.  However, helped by a scuffling rotation, their bullpen has already logged the tenth-most innings in baseball.    

Veteran arms like RHP Edwin Jackson are just a stone’s throw away, down at AAA Norfolk.  Also residing on the Tide's roster are Jason Acquino, Steve Crichton, Vidal Nuno, Logan Verrette and Tyler Wilson.  They've all done the Showalter Shuffle this season, spending time with the big club.  They also share a common bond in that most of that time ranged from forgettable to horrendous.

It's likely we haven't seen the last of that odd gang of castoffs, but Camden faithful aren't exactly pining for that opportunity.  They'd probably prefer to see the club tap into something with a higher ceiling.

Meet Tanner Scott, the Orioles’ minor league pitcher of the month for May.  He currently resides at AA Bowie.    

The big pitcher from Texas was the Orioles’ sixth round draft pick in 2014.  As a reliever, Scott can ramp his fastball up to 99 MPH, and backs it with a hard slider that arrives in the low 90’s.  Oh, and he’s left handed.

So, why haven’t you heard of him?  He’s been slow to adapt the pro game, struggling at every rung of the minor league ladder.  Also, he’s basically been ticketed for the bullpen from the beginning, skipping the step of being a flamed-out starter.

Their patience has been rewarded, this season, as Scott has really taken to the Eastern League in his second crack at it.  At first glance, his season looks otherworldly:

33.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 43 SO

Patience is not a virtue often associated with sports fans, and Scott’s early success undoubtedly has many drooling in anticipation.  Currently, the only lefties in the Orioles’ pen are Donnie Hart and Richard Bleier. 

Scott has yet to experience AAA, but we've seen plenty of electric arms shoot directly from AA to the big leagues.  Left-handed relievers who can touch triple digits on the gun are hard to come by.  Let’s just say they’re not exactly handing them out at the local Walmart.

However, it's important Baltimore doesn't rush him too quickly.  A deeper glance at the stat sheet shows that he might not be quite ready for prime time yet.  He’s been fortunate in the strand rate (87.1%) and BABIP (.222) departments.  He’s also been walk-pone, issuing 22 free passes in those 31 innings.

It’s worked so far, because he’s been stingy allowing hits.  Even a slight reversal in luck and that pristine ERA could take a big hit.  At the next level, the margin for error shrinks even further.  I'd like to see that walk rate come down quite a bit before a promotion is considered.  

Scott doesn't turn 23 until July.  If he can continue finding the strike zone, he could carve out a role in the back of the Orioles' bullpen as a left-handed version of Trevor Rosenthal: a high-strikeout flamethrower who deals with the occasional bout of control issues.  That fastball will ensure he gets plenty of chances.  

The verdict?  Truthfully, Scott probably needs more seasoning.  Finishing out a full season at Bowie wouldn’t hurt.  However, if the Orioles remain in contention, expect to find an answer to that question sooner rather than later.

Time To End The Craig Gentry Experiment

Let’s say you’re going to make a pizza at home.  You have all the ingredients to make a delicious pie: pepperoni, mushrooms, peppers, onions, etc.  And then, for some reason, you have a box of yellow raisins.

This is not a knock against yellow raisins.  They’re all right by themselves; they’re just not a topping you’d probably ever want to see on a pizza.  They don’t complement the other ingredients. 

Craig Gentry is that box of raisins.

The Orioles signed the 33-year-old veteran, hoping he could provide outfield defense and speed on the base-paths.  Gentry has been in the league since 2009, and has posted a positive WAR in every season he has appeared in at least 64 games.  Thus, it seemed a reasonable dice-roll for a club that specializes in such off-season moves.  

The signing threw him into the backseat of the Orioles’ clown car of corner-outfielder/first-basemen/DH-types.  Buck Showalter deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for the way he’s been able to divvy up time between them, while still winning ballgames.  

They toyed with using Gentry as the weak-side of a leadoff platoon with fellow newcomer, Seth Smith.  It’s not a large sample size, but Gentry’s production (.290 OBP when leading off) is hardly anything to write home about.  

He’s seen his playing time shrink, accordingly.  When he does get into games, it’s usually as a pinch-runner or defensive-replacement - supposed areas of strength for the University of Arkansas product.    

That was another factor that led to Baltimore signing him in the first place – many of the Orioles’ outfielders do not share Gentry’s defensive prowess.  Merely from the eye test, we can see he’s faster tracking down balls than some of his lead-footed brethren.  Whatever acumen he provides is not enough, however, to avoid receiving negative fielding marks on sites such as ESPN and Fangraphs.    

Overall, he's posted a -0.2 WAR.  So, if he’s not providing positive value on offense or defense, one might quote John C. McGinley’s character from Office Space: What would you say, you do here?

Teams use phrases like “provides veteran smarts” and “gives professional at-bats” as explanations to justify keeping guys like Gentry around.  But, in an era of bullpen specialization and hyper-utility players, there’s not much room for corner-outfield defensive-specialists who don’t add much at the plate.

Besides, as I mentioned, Baltimore has plenty of options to turn to (Smith, Joey Rickard, Hyun Soo Kim).  Every hapless Gentry at-bat is an opportunity that could have gone to a player on the upswing of his career. 

Gentry is barely receiving playing time.  He's kind of just there, sitting around like a third set of car keys.  The Orioles would be better served using that roster spot to shore up their bullpen, which has been a leaky faucet of late.  With Zach Britton on the DL, it’s an all hands on deck situation.  Whatever form of relief help that exists in the minors may and will be summoned. 

It’s time to trade him in for some anchovies or at least some pineapple.  

Curse of the Moose: Can Dylan Bundy break the cycle of disappointment?

In the waning days of November, 2000, Mike Mussina left the Orioles and signed a six-year, $88.5 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees.  Tucked under his arm were his 147 wins and his metaphorical placard adorned with the word “ace.”   

Mussina continued to be a steady anchor in Yankees’ rotation.  123 wins later, he retired, having pitched in two World Series (though never capturing a ring).  As for his former employers, the Baltimore Orioles, they would struggle to find a true replacement for the man they called “Moose.”

Enter Dylan Bundy. 

The 24-year-old righty from Oklahoma is the latest reason for O’s fans’ optimism.  He has the pedigree (fourth-overall pick in 2011), the stuff (11% swinging strike percentage in 2017) and the results (the club is 5-1 in his starts after last night’s win over the Red Sox) to back it up. 

Fans have been waiting forever and a day for Bundy to arrive.  For those who have been eagerly anticipating that moment, the early successes have to be encouraging.

If the Orioles have arrived at their ace, they’ve certainly taken the scenic route to get there.  From investing high draft picks to mining the international market, the O’s searched far and wide for quality arms.  Whether the culprit was injuries and/or general ineffectiveness, their pan has never yielded more than the occasional glitter of gold.  

For grins (or grimaces), here is every season’s starter leader in pitching WAR, since Mussina’s departure.  You could definitely win some bar bets with this list, which is not intended for those with weak stomachs:

2001: Josh Towers: 1.5 WAR

2002: Rodrigo Lopez: 3.8

2003: Pat Hentgen: 3.5

2004: Rodrigo Lopez: 4.9

2005: Bruce Chen: 3.0

2006: Erik Bedard: 3.9

2007: Erik Bedard: 5.7

2008: Jeremy Guthrie: 4.0

2009: Brad Bergesen: 3.1

2010: Jeremy Guthrie: 4.8

2011: Jeremy Guthrie: 1.8

2012: Miguel Gonzalez: 3.1

2013: Chris Tillman: 4.4

2014: Chris Tillman: 2.4

2015: Wei-Yin Chen: 3.8

2016: Kevin Gausman: 4.2

This is not to suggest that these pitchers are similar to each other, or to Bundy, or that WAR is the end-all-be-all stat for pitching.  It’s meant to illustrate the revolving door atop the Orioles’ rotation.   

Now, contrast that list to that of the seven seasons BEFORE that:

1994: Mussina: 5.4

1995: Mussina: 6.1

1996: Mussina: 3.6

1997: Mussina: 5.5

1998: Mussina: 5.0

1999: Mussina: 4.4

2000: Mussina: 5.6

That’s a nice little run there.  Consistency is the ultimate definition of an ace pitcher.  He’s your stopper, the guy who puts losing streaks and opposing hitters to bed. 

Bundy certainly has the potential to get to that point, but he has his work cut out for him.  Fortunately, he has youth on his side.  And, due to time missed with injuries, he has less mileage on his arm (less than 315 innings, majors and minors combined). 

Then again, his injuries (elbow, shoulder) have been in the worst locations you could think of, for a pitcher.  The team finally released its leash on his cutter, but now that he is throwing it again, will his arm hold up?

This is the first time that Bundy has started the season in the big league rotation.  The team is not considering an innings limit, but they may monitor his workload if he starts showing signs of fatigue.

In fact, once Tillman returns, it might not be the worst idea to skip a start here or there completely, to keep Bundy fresh for the stretch run.  They’ll need him at his best, then.  Long – not short – term success will dictate whether he gets to start working on a placard of his own.    

After the Goldrush: Orioles may regret not dealing their closer at the peak of his value

The Orioles’ young season received an early blow this weekend.  Ace closer, Zach Britton, was placed on the 10-day DL after experiencing pain in his throwing arm.

That sounds dire, but quotes emanating from Camden Yards have been optimistic.  As of this writing, Britton has been diagnosed with a “forearm strain” and will not receive an MRI.

The O’s will shut the lefty down for a week or so and see how his body responds.  Expect the club to proceed super-cautiously with the 29-year-old lefty.  The last thing they want is for Britton to blow his UCL while compensating for another injury.

So, while the initial news is good, the long-term prognosis is still a bit cloudy.  It offers a preview into how tenuous the world of relievers can be: hero today, gone tomorrow.

For every Mariano Rivera, there are five or ten other guys with electric stuff whose arms simply disintegrated.  Savvy organizations, such as the early-2000s Oakland A’s, recognize this and ship those guys out while their “stock” is high.

As history has shown, the returns for these guys can be fantastic – franchise-altering even.  It’s not to say that the Orioles would be better off without Britton, but he may be more valuable as a trade chip.

Worse, they may have missed their chance to cash in for the highest return.

Let’s rewind to last December’s winter meetings.  Baseball had just witnessed the postseason, and the birth of a new age of enlightenment.

Indian’s manager, Terry Francona led his team to the precipice of a title – in large part to his shrewd and aggressive deployment of relief pitcher, Andrew Miller.  On the other side of the field, Joe Maddon’s Cubs traded for Aroldis Chapman and won it all.

As for Britton, all he had done was put up his most-dominating season to date.  Here is a snippet of his excellence:

67 innings, 2-1, 0.54 ERA, .863 WHIP, 47 saves, 9.9 K/9, 2.5 WAR

Saves aren’t a sexy statistic to the analytic community, but elite closers still hold some “ooh-ah” currency for front offices.  The Dodgers, under the whip-smart direction of Andrew Freidman, just spent $80 million to retain the services of reliever Kenley Jansen.

Britton, who leads MLB this season with five saves, is tied with Tom Gordon for the second-longest consecutive saves streak with 54 (30 behind record-holder Eric Gagne).

His legend only seemed to grow, with his infamous non-usage in the 2016 AL Wild Card Game.  So, why trade such a valuable commodity?  The answer lies in the word “valuable.” 

Despite his age, he still has one more arbitration year left before he is eligible for free agency.  Two, full seasons of dominance from Britton would have been an enticing proposition for a team that needed a closer but was less-willing to make long-term commitments.

Teams are reticent to give up their best prospects, these days, but they might be more willing after seeing the returns Cleveland and Chicago got.  Meanwhile, the New York Yankees are still counting the king’s ransom they received for Chapman and Miller:

Chapman trade:
Gleyber Torres SS
Adam Warren RHP
Billy McKinney OF
Rashad Crawford OF

Miller trade:
Clint Frazier OF
Justus Sheffield LHP
Ben Heller RHP
J.P. Feyereisen RHP

Not every player on this list will become a major league regular, much less a star.  But, they (most-specifically Torres and Frazier) represent something everything organization covets: upside.

As my collegue Nate Delong highlighted, the Orioles aren’t exactly bursting with minor league depth.  The big league roster features aging players at key positions, so the time is now for them to be developing the next wave of stars.

Any time you can trade a reliever for starting, position player, it’s a win.  Position players appear in more games and are thus worth significantly more WAR over their careers than all but a handful of closers.

Britton was sublime last year, but even he was due for some regression, as evidenced by a 1.94 FIP and a .230 BABIP.  That’s certainly been true, so far.

It’s a tiny, sample size, but he has looked hittable (10 hits allowed in 7 frames of work) and has seen his walk rate increase (3.86 BB/9 versus 2.42 last season). 

It is unknown whether these struggles were due to the injury or not.  Sometimes, closers become stale fruit overnight.  Britton wouldn’t be the first, Oriole’s closer who experienced success, only to crash and burn his way out of town (see Johnson, Jim).

And, it’s not as if Baltimore didn’t have a perfectly-capable replacement, waiting in the wings.  That’s Brad Brach, whom ESPN called “baseball’s most underrated reliever.”

Buck Showalter stopped short of naming Brach the replacement.  But, with other arms like Darren O’Day also struggling, its likely Brach will be the guy until Britton returns. 

The Orioles have shown they can pluck bullpen arms off the scrap heap.  Knowing they had Brach waiting in the wings, the Orioles should have worn out the speed dial on teams like the Washington Nationals, who were seeking relief help and had prospects to burn.

It also made sense, from a PR-perspective.  Trading Britton in-season would be a highly-unpopular move to fans; it gives the impression that they are giving up on the season.

However, the backlash would be quieter in the winter, when many fans are preoccupied with the NFL.  Also, any hurt feelings would be mitigated if Baltimore had received one of those Godfather-packages like the Yankees got.

Now, fast-forward to the present.  The Orioles are off to their customary fast start (56.4 April winning percentage over the past five seasons) and own one of the best records in baseball.  At this point, moving Britton is not even close to being on their radar.

Right now, Showalter and the Orioles would settle for having “Great Britton” back in the line-up.  It’s possible he’ll be back soon.  Whether he’s effective or not is another story.

Either way, it’s clear they missed their chance to leverage an incredible trade asset, at the apex of its value.

Long Distance Salvation: Mark Trumbo Picks Up Where He Left Off

It’s Monday evening. The sun has set and the last bits of Cracker Jack have been swept up from the grounds behind the iron gates of ballparks that, hours before, had stood open for the first time all year.

Meanwhile, it feels like Mark Trumbo’s home run ball is still in orbit, finishing its majestic arc somewhere above Baltimore Country. The 11^th-inning shot provided a Hollywood-ending for those who remained from the sellout crowd of more than 45,000.

It was bittersweet revenge for the Orioles, whose last encounter with the bitter-rival Blue Jays brought their 2016 season to an abrupt conclusion (also, it had to be therapeutic seeing postseason-garden gnome, Zach Britton, get into the game for not one, but two whole innings)

This time around, it was Baltimore who prevailed, behind Trumbo’s historic blast (the first, opening day walk-off in club history), which had the added drama of being delivered with two outs and two strikes.

On the play, the catcher, Russell Martin, had set up his target low and away, with the clear intent being, “let’s see if he’ll chase.” However, pitcher Jason Grilli hung his slider and the rest was history.

The pitch obviously didn’t have the intended result, but was born of sound strategy. Pitches with horizontal movement – namely, sliders and cutters – were the biggest bugaboos for the Orioles’ slugger last season.

Not to be a Debbie Downer on the heels of a nice win (and the fact that he was pretty awesome last year), but if we’re going to nitpick, here’s a truncated breakdown of Trumbo’s 2016 results by pitch type:

Fastballs: .278/.349/.639
Change-ups: .253/.313/.419
Curveballs: .286/.359/.641
Splitters: .200/.273/.500
Sliders: .168/.202/.286
Cutters: .176/.208/.297

These numbers are extrapolated only from at-bats that ended with those specific pitches. In other words, they don’t tell the whole story. Perhaps more telling: they accounted for 84 of his 170 strikeouts (49%), making them by far the most potent weapon used against him.

Trumbo in 2016 against cutters & sliders

Location was also a factor. As the graphic shows, Trumbo struggled with outside breaking stuff. The red in the bottom left indicates he was especially prone to expanding the strike zone on pitches down and away.

Ironically, Trumbo HAS, at times, demonstrated the ability to hit those pitches (.251 AVG against sliders in 2014-15). If he could even split the difference between that and his 2016 performance - or just simply lay off those pitches altogether - it would go a long way towards keeping the opposition honest.

If he doesn’t, it won’t be for lack of practice. Expect to see a steady diet of breaking pitches headed his way this season.

Smiling In The Bright Lights: What Will Adam Jones Do For An Encore?

Before I begin, I must eat a little crow.  Earlier this month, I confidently proclaimed that nobody cares about the World Baseball Classic.

Oops.

In fairness, it was a tongue-in-cheek remark to begin with; obviously, SOMEBODY out there cares.  And, during last weekend’s WBC-action, that field of somebody’s expanded to include one more, yours truly.

It turns out that meaningful baseball makes for great television – especially when you sprinkle a little national pride on top.  And, for Baltimore Orioles fans, having outfielder Adam Jones prominently-involved in the outcome (a 6-3 Team USA victory over the Dominican Republic, the tournament’s defending champ) was an extra thrill - the juicy, red cherry on top.

In case you’ve been out of the country and haven’t seen the play, do yourself a favor and remedy that.  Jones makes a leaping catch - ala Mickey Hart - on a Manny Machado, homer run bid to right-center (in Petco Park, no less).  The forums lit up, brandishing him with a multitude of nicknames (personal favorite: “GI Jones”).

Such national acclaim has always seemed just out of reach for Baltimore’s star.  On one hand, he is a five-time all-star.  On the other, he’s finished in the top ten of AL-MVP-voting just once (6^th in 2012).

As far as defense goes, he has four gold gloves to his name, but is often treated indifferently by advanced metrics (for more on Jonesie’s defense – and outfield defense in general - check out this article by Depot colleague, Matt Perez). 

A.J. has 150 home runs over the last five seasons, but has never even led his own team, in that span.  While he’s been the most consistent hitter during his Orioles tenure, it seems he has constantly been overshadowed by someone else’s career year – be it Luke Scott, Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz or Mark Trumbo (cut to a shot of Ty Wigginton shouting, “Hey, don’t forget about me!”).

Most recently, his star has been eclipsed by the incandescent light that is Machado.  The kid’s time has arrived, and soon the organization will have tough financial choices to make, regarding their star third baseman’s contract.  Jones may be a casualty of such economics, leaving fans to bid premature adieu to another favorite.  

Jones has two seasons left on the six-year, $85.5 million dollar deal he signed, in 2012.  And, from the club’s perspective, it has aged-well through the prism of inflation.  Would you rather have two more years of Jones for $33 million, or seven more years of Jason Heyward for *gulp* $169 million?

That said, Jones turned 31 in August, and there are signs he may be slowing.  Last year he was worth a WAR-total of just 1.4.  2016 was also his first sub-100 wRC+ campaign since 2008, his rookie year.  His .171 ISO represented a five-year low.

Also, while he has always displayed a bit of a reverse platoon-split, his numbers against southpaws were worse than ever (.580 OPS).  Was it just a down year, or a sign that Jones’ career is rolling towards the precipice of an Aaron Rowand-like cliff?

On the plus side, he did strike out a bit less and walked a bit more.  He also reversed a three-year downward trend in hard-hit ball percentage.  That, coupled with his .280 BABIP (.308 career) and 14.1% HR/FB (15.3% career), could indicate that he was perhaps suffering from a run of bad luck.

Hits will have to drop for Jones because, even with the free pass improvement, his OBP was still a pedestrian .310.  That number needs to come up, especially if Showalter is forced to pencil Jones into the leadoff spot again.

Also, his home run totals must not show a major drop-off.  Power numbers have been on the rise; 38 players hit 30 or more home runs in 2016.  In 2013, there were only 14 such players.  Jones just keeps chugging along, but the league’s trends have rendered his power totals from above-average to merely average.
 
He is under contract through 2018, so the Orioles do have some time to evaluate.  It will be interesting to see how they proceed.

Joey Rickard: On-Base Machine?

The World Baseball Classic has begun, but very few people outside of Bruce Chen’s family seem aware of its presence. Even fewer of them care. So, I’ve decided to write about something even more arcane, instead: spring training statistics.

Making sense of the numbers is often a fruitless exercise. There are simply too many variables. Playing time and competition levels vary. Veteran hitters, if they play at all, might use the time to tinker with their swing. Pitchers might be trying out a new grip they learned in winter ball. The overall-theme is more about getting back into a rhythm than it is about posting big stats.  However, if you read between the statistical-lines, you can occasionally glean SOME valuable tidbits of information.

For instance, a high rate of attempted steals could signal a shift in personal or organizational philosophy. A pitcher who is pounding the strike zone while posting a miniscule walk rate may have developed improved control of his stuff. Likewise, a young hitter who posts a good walk-to-strikeout ratio might be seeing the ball particularly-well and is poised for a breakout season.

This leads me to Joey Rickard.

I wrote briefly on the 25-year-old outfielder a few weeks ago. He is one of about 300 players competing for a job in the Baltimore Orioles’ outfield. At the time, I surmised that it might be difficult for a player of his skill-set (right-handed batter, corner-outfielder) to stand out – but, that was before he started channeling his inner-Wade Boggs.

On Monday, Rickard singled and drew a walk. That free pass was his eighth of the spring - a category in which he is currently the MLB-leader.  In those 11 games, he has struck out only three times.

I can already hear the wail of the Sample-Size Police sirens in the distance.  The raw numbers aren't the point; the approach is. 

Mr. Rickard does have some history of being proficient in the on-base department. In 2015, he posted a .431 OPB across three levels of the Rays’ system – including a .437 clip at AAA Durham.

In his MLB-debut, Rickard averaged 4.33 pitches per plate appearance. That would have placed him in some pretty good company, had he stayed healthy long-enough to qualify.


2016 Pitches per plate appearance leaders:

Jayson Werth 4.60
Mike Napoli 4.57
Mike Trout 4.43
Dexter Fowler 4.40
Joey Rickard 4.33
Joe Mauer 4.28
Joey Votto 4.28


That’s a lot of Joey’s (maybe Jonathan Schoop should consider adopting a temporary-name change to help with his plate discipline?). The rest of the guys you’ve no doubt heard of, as well. It's an eclectic list; some pose bigger power threats than others.  The one thing they all share is an apparent enthusiasm for winning the war of attrition against the opposing pitcher via the long at-bat.

So, does that mean Orioles fans should get their pencils and computer mice ready for a full-on, all-star-ballot-stuffing campaign? Not quite yet.

Rickard’s minor league walk-rate hasn’t translated to regular season, MLB action. Last season (in an 85-game sample), he walked a mere 6.4% of the time, while striking-out at a 19.1% clip. Change-ups, in particular, were a bugaboo. He hit an anemic 2 for 24 in at-bats that ended with that pitch – including 14 whiffs.

High strikeout-rates are fine if a player consistently gets on base, or has a chance of sending the ball a long ways when he does connect. Rickard owns some power to the gaps – which is amplified against lefties – but is not your classic slugger. Thus, he will have to be one of those pesky guys who work counts in order to maintain favor with management.

His 36% BB-rate this spring is obviously-untenable. However, it shows he isn’t pressing in his return from the thumb injury that brought a premature end to his rookie season. As starting pitchers ramp up their workloads and fringe-arms are banished to minor league camp or cut, it will be important that Rickard’s production doesn’t taper off.

Spring Training 2017: Three O's With Something To Prove

It’s February, but DMV-residents were treated to a preview of spring over the weekend.

Temperatures surged past 60, and streets were marked by the symphony of skateboards, children, and barking dogs.

Spring represents a whole bunch of clichés about new beginnings and slate wiping. For baseball, of course, it means spring training is finally on the doorstep.

For some players, it represents a chance to make a new mark. For others, it is a chance to change an old one. Here are three Orioles who have the most at stake this spring training:

Tyler Wilson, RHP 

In 2016, Tyler Wilson went on a 10-game stretch where he posted a 4.58 ERA, while averaging nearly six innings a start. Then, he hit a rocky patch and was shipped off to Norfolk. By the end of the season he was back, but was relegated to random, bullpen work.

With Chris Tillman (shoulder) out for spring training and questionable to begin the season, a number of players stand to benefit. Wilson is in that group, which also includes the Mike Wrights and Logan Verretts of the world. (Ed. note: After some recent moves, Vidal Nuno and Gabriel Ynoa are also in the mix.)

Wilson is an undersized right-hander with a 90 MPH fastball and an average change-up and slider. At 27, he’s too old to be considered a true prospect, but he has shown incremental improvement over the years.

The former UVA-standout is a control specialist, which is a polite way of saying low strikeout-totals.  However, he did post a reasonable K-rate in AAA (7.4 K/9 between three seasons), which translated to 4.9 in the big leagues.     

He needs to do a better job of keeping the ball in the yard (15 home runs allowed in 94 innings) but, realistically, what you want from your fifth starter is a guy who can hold his own against big-league hitters and absorb innings.  Wilson has proven he can do that reasonably well. 

With a good spring training performance, he can reinsert himself into the starter-discussion, and make long relief closer to his floor – not his ceiling.

Trey Mancini/Joey Rickard 1B/OF

Okay, I cheated, but I couldn’t resist throwing these players in together because, well, they strike me as similar players who are at similar crossroads, career-wise.

They are both right-handed hitters around the same age (Mancini is 24, Rickard is 25.  Mancini has more pop but Rickard has more defensive-versatility in his ability to play all three outfield spots.  That makes them prototypical players for the Showalter regime.  On the other, it makes them harder to stand out, in an already-crowded field.*

Currently, Rickard has the larger portfolio of major league success, appearing in 85 games last year. He posted .696 OPS in his first taste of big-league action before succumbing to season-ending thumb surgery.

The Orioles responded, this off-season, by signing everyone under the sun. They traded for Seth Smith, a lefty who can play both corner spots. They brought back Mark Trumbo, who will split time between right field and DH. They sent spring training invites to veteran outfielders Craig Gentry, Logan Schaefer, Chris Dickerson, and David Washington.

And, don't forget Baltimore's rule 5 selections Anthony Santander and Aneury Tavarez, who both play - you guessed it - outfield positions.  Throw in incumbent left fielder, Hyun Soo Kim, and you've got yourself a party. 

As for Mancini, he made a memorable - albeit brief - 2016 debut, smacking three home runs in five games. A first baseman by trade, he has but one obstacle in his path. Unfortunately, that obstacle (some guy named Chris Davis) is in year two of a $161 million, mega-deal and is going nowhere.  While Mancini could split time between first and DH, Trumbo's presence means opportunities for the latter would be limited. 

Mancini and Rickard might be squeezed out by the numbers game.  Then again, the duo could make that decision much harder by simply raking, this spring. At the very least, it would improve their stock as trade bait, if Baltimore chooses to shore up areas where it is not so loaded.

J.J. Hardy

It might seem an odd choice to include the 34-year-old veteran on this list. Hardy won’t be busting his butt to make the team. However, he does enter spring training with things to prove.

For starters, he needs to flash some of that old pop he used to show so readily. In every full-season he played, from 2007 to 2013, Hardy hit no fewer than 22 home runs. Up to that point, his career-slugging percentage was .428.

It’s been a different story, the past three years. Injuries have sapped his playing time and affected his counting stats, but he hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire when he has played. From 2014-16, he’s slugged a pedestrian .346.

Part of it could simply be attributed to a natural product of aging. However, while everyone gets old, not everyone has a chance to play professional baseball. Hardy not only has that chance, but he is young enough to merit one last, multi-year contract for big money if he is motivated enough. 

2017 is the last guaranteed year of the extension he signed in 2014. The Orioles hold a club option for 2018, but would be unlikely to exercise it if Hardy tanks at the plate again.

Hardy is still an excellent defender, but glove-first middle infielders can be had for much cheaper than his $14 million option. Plus, the Orioles have Manny Machado, whose natural position is shortstop.

However, if he can post a respectable OBP, with 15-20 home runs, the Orioles might be open to negotiating another extension. Or, if the club is out of contention, he could be interesting trade candidate, if he is willing to waive his 10-5 rights.

Getting off to a fast start would definitely help. With that in mind, Hardy needs to show up for spring training showing that he’s healthy, focused, and is seeing the ball well.

-----

Update: The field got even more crowded yesterday as Baltimore signed veteran outfielder, Michael Bourn, to a minor-league deal.  He will join the O's in big league camp where he will compete for a job.

Rearview Mirror: A Look At The Chris Davis Contract, One Year Out

I bought my first, new car in 2011.

Nowadays, integrated-technologies for cars (Bluetooth, touch-screen displays, parking cameras, etc.) are included in manufacturers’ standard packages. That wasn’t quite the case six years ago, when you could still bypass most of the bells and whistles to save a buck.

To a poor, college student, it made financial sense. Besides, the word “Bluetooth” made me think of those awful people running around, wearing devices in their ear that made them look like a poor man’s Lobot.

I’d made up my mind that such things were just fads. As a result, my car’s present-day value is not as high as if it would have been if I had paid a bit more to get those features.  Failure to anticipate the market’s direction can leave you with an artifact bereft of the value you paid for it.

This leads me to the Baltimore Orioles’ first baseman, Chris Davis.

Just a year ago, he signed his name across the dotted-lines of a club-record, $161 million dollar contract that would keep him around through 2022.

Even at the time, it seemed overly-aggressive. The Orioles, despite their free-spending reputation, are the type of organization I’d imagine that if you borrowed a pen from, you’d expect to receive a bill for the ink.

In 1998, Baltimore led the league in player-spending with $71.8 million. In 2016, that number had grown to $115.6 million, a 61% increase. On its own, that sounds drastic. However, compare those numbers to that of the Tigers; their payroll has increased by a staggering, 805 percent.

The Orioles 2016 payroll ranked middle-of-the-pack, a number more consummate with their market-size (at least, according to this Bleacher Report article). This made the Davis deal so surprising.

Right off the bat, it put him among some elite company – at least, in terms of the overall dollar amount:

1) Giancarlo Stanton $325,000,000
2) Miguel Cabrera $248,000,000
3) Albert Pujols $240,000,000
4) Robinson Cano $240,000,000
5) Joey Votto $225,000,000
6) Joe Mauer $184,000,000
7) Jason Heyward $184,000,000
8) Buster Posey $167,000,000
9) Chris Davis $161,000,000*
10) Matt Kemp $160,000,000

*The contract does include a large amount deferred payments, which bring Davis’ annual, price tag down to $17,000,000.

The 30-year-old Davis is a menacing presence at the plate, but few would pencil him into their “top” lists. That is not a knock on “Crush,” it’s just that baseball has moved past the age when one-dimensional sluggers dominated the food chain.

For one thing, power isn’t the sacred commodity it was earlier this decade. 2016 saw an increase in home runs, with 2.31 home runs hit per-game (the first time that figure has been over two since 2009). Why pay Joe Gold the farm to hit 40 home runs, when Joe Silver can hit 30 – and you can pay him peanuts on the dollar.

This offseason, front offices adjusted to the changing tides. Reigning NL-home run champ Chris Carter is still unemployed. Ditto for Mike Napoli, who paced the Indians with 34 home runs and helped nearly lead them to a title.

Here’s how their 2016 resumes compare with Davis':

Carter: .820 OPS, .277 ISO, 112 wRC+*
Napoli: .800 OPS, .217 ISO, 113 wRC+
Davis: .791 OPS, .237 ISO, 111 wRC+

*Weighted runs created is a Fangraphs rate stat that measures the hitter's contributions at the plate, while adjusting for park and league factors.  It uses 100 as the base for a league average hitter   

In that last category, Napoli, Carter and Davis finished 14th, 16th, and 18th, respectively, among first basemen.  For Davis, that puts him just ahead of one, John Jaso.  That's not to say that wRC+ is the end-all-be-all, but anytime you're mentioned in the same breath as Jaso, it's probably not going to be a positive thing (Jaso, incidentally, made $4 million, last year - about what Davis pulled in a quarter of a season). 

OPS wasn't much more favorable to Davis, with the O's slugger finishing tied for 17th, in the category - below the average mark posted by first baseman in 2016 (.819 OPS).  The player he is tied with is the Angels' C.J. Cron - again, not exactly exclusive company. 

While it's true you can't measure a player's worth through the lens of a single season, it's telling that Carter and Napoli are still trudging down the unemployment line.  The market for such players has seen a cruel (at least from their perspective) adjustment. 

Injuries, opportunity, and/or desperation will set in, and the duo will find work.  And, when they do, I am willing to bet my outdated car that they won't be sniffing anything close to Davis money.  Think closer to one/two years guaranteed, at $8-12 million per.  Davis' teammate, Mark Trumbo, posted better numbers than any of them and only got three years, $37.5 million.

As for Davis himself, he will spend his Baltimore summers racking up massive home runs and equally-massive whiffs (league-high 32.9% K-rate in 2016), hoping the former occurs frequently enough to counterbalance the latter.  He's like a left-handed, slightly-wealthier man's version of Rob Deer. 

The Orioles need to be saving every penny for their own version of doomsday (2019, when Manny Machado can become a free agent).  To stay competitive during this process, they need to maximize the dollars they do spend.  This seems like a bad start. 

Figures obtained from Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, and Spotrac