Other Second-Base Options at Norfolk

Since last week's report on Jonathan Schoop, several things have happened. First, the Tides have played a week's worth of games against teams good (Buffalo) and bad (Syracuse). Second, the Orioles have continued their winning ways. Third, the Orioles' second basemen have continued to play poorly (it's probably not a good sign when your team's television commentators praise you for getting a bloop single, as the Orioles' did for Ryan Flaherty.) Because the Orioles are playing well, upgrading second base isn't urgent. But it's certainly possible that the lack of production at second base will start to cost the Orioles, and they'll look to Norfolk for a replacement.

As I wrote last week, it would probably be in the Orioles' best long-term interest to keep Jonathan Schoop at Norfolk for all of 2013. On the other hand, if the Orioles need a second baseman, and Schoop is the only option, then they'll have to bite the bullet, promote Schoop, and hope that he can pull a Manny Machado. There are two other options at Norfolk, both of whom are currently playing well and who are on the forty-man roster.

Danny Valencia has been the Tides' regular third baseman. He's been hitting very well, .288/.323/.508 through May 9. He's a better defensive third baseman than his numbers look; two of the errors he's been charged with were very borderline calls (the official scorer has admitted that he'd have changed one call if he'd been asked to.) He'll never walk a lot, but he's made consistent hard contact and four of his strikeouts were in the first three games of the season. If the Orioles get desperate at second base, the Orioles could recall Valencia to play third, and either move Manny Machado to second or Machado to short and J.J. Hardy to second.

I wouldn't do it, not because Valencia wouldn't be an improvement over the Orioles' second basemen but because the other moves cause problems. If you move Machado to second, you'll be teaching him a third position in two seasons. Second base is perhaps the hardest position to learn from a technical standpoint. I believe Machado's future is at shortstop; if you move him to second base, it'll be harder to move him back to short later. Moving both Hardy and Machado has the disadvantage of having two players learning new positions in the middle of the season. Recalling Valencia would be an absolute desperation move.

Yamaico Navarro has mostly been playing shortstop, and he's also seen time at second base. He's hitting .317/.405/.462, which is substantially better than he has hit in the past. Since Jonathan Schoop moved to second base, Navarro has been playing shortstop, and his throwing arm is amazing -- in the sense that almost every throw is a line drive to the first baseman's chest. Although he hasn't played a lot of second base in his career, he has played there some and would be better defensively than Jonathan Schoop. Interestingly, in the games I've seen he has neither walked nor struck out a lot; but that goes against his overall season numbers in which he's walked and struck out 15-20% of the time.

 If the Orioles did decide to promote either Valencia or Navarro to replace their second baseman, they'd be taking a risk. Both Valencia and Navarro are playing well, and are likely to regress to their average performance. On the other hand, their current second basemen are likely to progress to their average performance. Until the Orioles stop playing well, their best plan is probably to continue as they are and wait the expected improvement.

Orioles Have Issues at 2nd, Should Consider Kelly Johnson

Last season, the Orioles got very little production from their second basemen. Robert Andino, Ryan Flaherty, Omar Quintanilla, and Brian Roberts had a total wOBA of .261. Only the Tigers had a worst combined wOBA (.253) from their second basemen. The O's group wasn't just terrible at the plate: Their wins above replacement of -2.5 -- weighed down by awful hitting, bad baserunning (4.0 runs below average on the basepaths), and poor fielding (-12.2 UZR) -- was the worst in the majors by a full win.

Gone are Andino (traded to the Mariners for outfielder Trayvon Robinson) and Quintanilla (signed with the Mets). Flaherty and Roberts are still in Baltimore, and the new addition is Alexi Casilla, acquired via waivers.

Casilla isn't much of an improvement, but he is a modest one. He has a career .286 wOBA and hit .241/.282/.321 (.266 wOBA) last year in 106 games, the most he's ever played in a single season. He occasionally entered games as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement, though, which explains why he only had 326 plate appearances. Casilla had a solid 8.1 UZR last year, but for his career he's a replacement-level defender -- exactly, actually: 0.0 UZR. He does add some speed (13.1 career baserunning runs above average), which is useful. Considering the O's avoided arbitration with Casilla and signed him to a $1.7 million deal (with a $3 million club option in 2014), it's not a bad gamble, especially since Flaherty and Roberts are obvious question marks.

Flaherty had his moments (his most memorable probably being his Game 3 home run against the Yankees in the American League Division Series). A Rule 5 pick from the Cubs, he managed to stick with the O's all season, and he will compete for some starts at second base and a few other spots (he managed to fill in at times at first base, shortstop, third base, and both corner outfield positions). But he hit just .216/.258/.359 (.270 wOBA), and while some improvement wouldn't be surprising, he's an OK option at best.

The same can be said for Roberts, though for different reasons. Roberts hasn't played in more than 60 games since 2009, and he returned for just 17 games last year before straining his groin and eventually having season-ending hip surgery last August after doctors discovered a labrum tear. Other previous injuries of the past few seasons include a herniated disc in his lower back, an abdominal strain, and multiple concussions. When Roberts was finally able to return in 2012, a remarkable achievement considering the difficulty he had dealing with nagging concussion effects, he wasn't the same player, hitting .182/.233/.182 (.193 wOBA).

Unfortunately, Roberts continues to battle with a never-ending assortment of injuries. On Thursday, Buck Showalter hinted at a minor setback for Roberts in the offseason, which turned out to be "'some minor stuff going on' related to his surgically repaired hip." That may be why Roberts had sports hernia surgery in December. Roberts said he's fine, though, but it's yet another injury concern for the 35-year-old.

So the Casilla/Flaherty/Roberts combination is far from ideal, and there also aren't many answers in the minors. Jonathan Schoop may eventually be able to play second or third base at the major-league level, but he's not ready right now and will most likely spend the entire season in the minors. Yamaico Navarro, acquired in a trade from the Pirates for another minor leaguer, also isn't a very good fallback plan.

But signing Kelly Johnson might help. He's a free agent and 30 years old, and he's spent parts of seven major league seasons with the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. He's had two down years since his extremely impressive 2010 campaign, when he hit .284/.370/.496 (.378 wOBA) and posted a WAR of 5.8. In 2011, he was shipped to Toronto in August and posted a combined batting line of .222/.304/.413 (.315 wOBA), and then last season he hit .225/.313/.365 (.299 wOBA). He's about a replacement-level runner and defender in his career as well, though last season he had one of his worst in the field (-6.9 UZR).

But most of Johnson's value is at the plate, where he has some pop. Or, at least, he has previously shown the ability to hit for power. His slugging percentage has dropped in each of the last three seasons, and his isolated power dropped from .212 in 2010 to .140 in 2012 (his career low). That partially explains why he's out of a job right now. It's not surprising to find out that Johnson's HR/FB rate of 15.6% in 2010 was the highest of his career. His career average HR/FB rate is 11.7%, though it's probably between 12-13% when factoring in two odd seasons with the Braves when he had rates of 7.6% and 7.5%, respectively, despite having rates of 13.8% and 10.3% in Atlanta, respectively, in 2005 and 2007. (He missed the entire 2006 season after having Tommy John surgery.)

Johnson had a 13.7% HR/FB rate last season, which is a little above average for him. But he also hit way too many groundballs (45.2%) and not enough fly balls (33.7%). Those numbers are above/below his career averages by a few percentage points and are a factor in his power outage.

Just like the other second base options listed above, there's no guarantee that Johnson would contribute much next season. But Dan Duquette seems to relish constantly signing and discarding various fringe players, stashing them at Norfolk for a rainy day. Maybe Johnson could have a Nate McLouth-like contribution to the Orioles next season, or he could be signed one day and then be gone a few days/weeks later. There wouldn't be much risk, though, so it would make some sense.

Short Rundown of the Yamaico Navarro Deal

Yamaico Navarro is on the move again.  He tantalized Boston for several years showing plus power with adequate power and plate discipline from the SS position.  However, he frustrated them for his nonchalant manner in keeping himself in shape.  After a couple short trials at the MLB level, Boston gave up on him and traded him to the Royals with Kendal Volz for Mike Aviles.  You could call both Navarro and Volz as C level prospects.  The Royals gave up on him after half a season and traded him for Brooks Pounders and Diego Goris.  Goris is a non-prospect by this point as he has developed not a trace of plate discipline as a 21 year old in rookie ball.  The Royals converted Pounders to a starting pitcher where he has worked himself to a C+ level as a prospect.  Now, with the Orioles...he earns the Pirates Jhondaniel Medina who is in line as a C level prospect.  With this swapping perspective, it appears to me that Navarro is a commodity of decreasing value.

Navarro's decrease in value is related to a couple things.  First, as he has accumulated 383 plate appearances in the majors and will be 26 next year.  The promise he showed as a 20 year old breaking out in HiA Lancaster has eroded significantly over the following four years.  He stills shows a strong arm and quick feet, but has filled out rather softly which has cut into his range and pushed him to second base, third base, and left field.  The bat may wind up playing at second if he is able to generate better contact in the majors, which could make him viable as an offensive minded 2B.  Third base is trending more toward power these days, but he could potentially be a fit there.  In the outfield, it is difficult seeing the bat come along as well as that.

Jhondaniel Medina?  He is a nineteen year old pitcher who throws a high 80s fastball, a slider that breaks hard (with some command issues), and a poor change up.  The fastball-slider plays well enough for rookie ball and should work in A ball.  However, even at this level he shows a strong platoon split with lefties hitting him quite well.  As a right handed pitcher, this profile is not incredibly special.  However, it is a roughly interesting arm for the purposes of accumulating arm depth and it allows Pittsburgh to clean a space on the 40 man roster.

What does it all mean?
The Orioles find themselves with a player who used to be an interesting prospect and has failed multiple times at the major league level, but gives them more options for filling second base.  The Pirates get more flexibility in their 40 man roster by dealing a guy two other teams had given up on in the past two seasons along with acquiring an slightly interesting, but certainly not unique, arm.