For some reason, the Orioles have traded their competitive balance draft pick the last two years in order to dump a little bit of salary. The first instance came in 2015, when the O's shipped Ryan Webb and the $2.75 million left on his deal along with the No. 74 overall pick to the Dodgers in exchange for two minor leaguers. The Dodgers then released Webb, because they wanted the draft pick.
Then, this past season, the O's traded Brian Matusz and the about $3 million left on his contract, plus the No. 76 pick in the draft, to the Braves for two minor leaguers. The Braves designated Matusz for assignment quickly. Again, the trade for the Dodgers and Braves was all about paying for a draft pick, and the O's were happy to oblige.
There's no guarantee the O's will do the same thing this year, but it's a strategy Dan Duquette has used to shed a little payroll early in the year. It seems bizarre -- you'd figure it would make more sense to non-tender a player or two to make up that salary instead of sending away a top-75ish draft pick -- but the O's seem to think this is some kind of market inefficiency (along with targeting unwanted qualifying offer players late in the offseason).
So who are some possibilities to be attached to another competitive balance pick and sold away to the highest bidder? (It's worth noting MLB and the MLBPA have postponed the Competitive Balance Lottery until January, and that the format could be altered.) Let's explore the options quickly.
5. Ubaldo Jimenez/Yovani Gallardo/Wade Miley
Just kidding. They all make too much money (Ubaldo: $13.5 million; Gallardo: $11 million; Miley: $8.75 million). Let's look elsewhere.
4. Hyun Soo Kim ($4.2 million)
How good does that two-year, $7 million deal for Kim look now? You wouldn't think the Orioles would trade him away in this type of deal because Kim showed he can successfully hit major league pitching. Then again, Kim's playing time was sporadic at the beginning of the season, and it sure didn't seem like Buck Showalter wanted him on the team for a portion of the year.
I don't think the O's will trade Kim -- and they shouldn't -- but it's at least possible they try to attach him to the competitive balance pick in an effort to garner a somewhat better return of minor leaguers than the past two trades.
3. T.J. McFarland (MLBTR projection: $0.7 million)
McFarland might have run out of chances to stick with the Orioles. He's out of options, and he might also be out of a role. McFarland has always been more of a swingman type than a lefty specialist, but the O's might not need either one. Donnie Hart is the second left-handed pitcher in the bullpen to go along with Zach Britton. And for now, they have six starters to choose from, plus long relievers/spot starters Vance Worley, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, Parker Bridwell, and others.
McFarland is a clear non-tender candidate, and he doesn't make enough money anyway to be included as the only player sold in a potential comp. pick deal. However, he could be included with someone like...
2. Ryan Flaherty (MLBTR projection: $1.7 million)
Say what you will about Flaherty (I have), but it's clear what he brings to the table. He can play multiple positions competently, including middle and corner infield spots. But he's also not a very good hitter, and it's possible the Orioles seek someone else to fill this role for less money. He could be someone the O's keep at the beginning of the season and then dump to shed some salary. Or, you know, he could just be non-tendered. You could say the same thing for the next guy on this list.
1. Vance Worley (MLBTR projection: $3.3 million)
The Orioles' two competitive balance pick trades involved pitchers, and the O's could find themselves with six starters and no defined role for Worley. So why wouldn't the O's just non-tender him? Great question! Why didn't they non-tender Matusz last year? Why did they go out of their way to dump Webb and his reasonable salary the year before that? The Orioles clearly do some smart things, but they also do some really weird things. This could just be another one of those, and Worley's salary seems just about the right amount to dump on another team.
By the way, this whole thing is crazy. Shouldn't the Orioles be doing more to actually keep extra draft picks? At least with Webb, the O's had already signed him to a guaranteed deal. The O's didn't have to keep Matusz around. The same goes for Worley, Flaherty, and McFarland.
Showing posts with label Vance Worley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vance Worley. Show all posts
01 August 2016
Orioles Count On A Collection Of Swingmen Because They Have To
Teams with an average to decent starting rotation don't really have a need for more than, say, one long reliever. The Orioles, though, have a bad rotation and currently have several swingmen on the roster: Dylan Bundy, Ubaldo Jimenez, Vance Worley, Odrisamer Despaigne, and Tyler Wilson. Yes, Bundy is slated in the rotation right now and is firmly in the team's long-term starter plans, but he was used as a multiple-inning reliever earlier in the year and it's at least possible he shifts back to that role before the end of the season.
Jimenez is in the swingman role for two reasons: 1) He's been terrible and lost his regular starting gig; and 2) He's only still on the team because the Orioles still haven't figured out a convenient way to unload his contract (which they've been trying to do since late 2014).
Besides Bundy, the real hero of the long relief corps is Worley. In 62.1 innings out of the bullpen and in four starts, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and has been getting a bunch of ground balls (48%). His peripheral numbers aren't as good, with a FIP near 4, but that's hardly awful. And considering the O's plucked him from waivers and are paying him $2.6 million this season, those are decent, and much-needed, results.
Despaigne has a strikeout rate under six and a walk rate of nearly five, but somehow he's managed to pitch 24 innings without being a complete disaster. And Wilson has had his ups and downs, but in limited duty has been more effective out of the bullpen - when he's not asked to work through a lineup more than once or twice.
This is far from a perfect situation, and it's something the Orioles have been dealing with all season. Ideally, the O's would employ starters capable of pitching six innings and then handing the ball off to Mychal Givens, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton. Surely that's what Dan Duquette hoped for when bringing aboard Jimenez in 2013 and Gallardo this past offseason. And obviously, that's not the case this season. O's starters have thrown the third fewest innings in the majors. Enter the team's collection of long relievers.
It's unclear exactly how the addition of Wade Miley will change things. Most likely, he'll be slotted into the rotation with Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Yovani Gallardo, and Bundy (for now). The Orioles need to create a spot on both the 25- and 40-man rosters, and the O's have also been working with a three-man bench lately. Wilson and Despaigne are the two long relievers who have options, so likely one of them will be sent down. You'd have to think the O's would prefer to jettison Jimenez from the roster, but that appears unlikely.
Buck Showalter will need to keep going to this cast of characters, and unfortunately, this could be the case next year as well. The only real hope is that this version of Tillman is for real (a dangerous assumption), and that Gausman and Bundy both stay healthy and continue to progress. Gallardo is somehow getting a pass that Jimenez never received, and Miley is the very embodiment of a back-end starter. If the Orioles don't develop a starter or pull another Miguel Gonzalez out of their hat, there really isn't much relief in sight. It's not like the O's are going to start paying top dollar for starting pitching, which they maybe shouldn't do anyway because of the risks involved.
The Orioles have constructed a flimsy bridge from the rotation to their dominant group of relievers. It's no sure thing this collection of starters can even get the ball to any of their relievers with a lead intact, but these long relievers will play an important part in how the O's fare the rest of the year. It's hard to expect a lot from them, because if they didn't have flaws in their game, they'd be in a starting rotation somewhere instead of a bullpen. But that's more or less what the O's have excelled in these last few successful seasons: getting helpful performances out of unlikely places. They'll need more of that.
Jimenez is in the swingman role for two reasons: 1) He's been terrible and lost his regular starting gig; and 2) He's only still on the team because the Orioles still haven't figured out a convenient way to unload his contract (which they've been trying to do since late 2014).
Besides Bundy, the real hero of the long relief corps is Worley. In 62.1 innings out of the bullpen and in four starts, he's posted a 2.89 ERA and has been getting a bunch of ground balls (48%). His peripheral numbers aren't as good, with a FIP near 4, but that's hardly awful. And considering the O's plucked him from waivers and are paying him $2.6 million this season, those are decent, and much-needed, results.
Despaigne has a strikeout rate under six and a walk rate of nearly five, but somehow he's managed to pitch 24 innings without being a complete disaster. And Wilson has had his ups and downs, but in limited duty has been more effective out of the bullpen - when he's not asked to work through a lineup more than once or twice.
This is far from a perfect situation, and it's something the Orioles have been dealing with all season. Ideally, the O's would employ starters capable of pitching six innings and then handing the ball off to Mychal Givens, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, and Zach Britton. Surely that's what Dan Duquette hoped for when bringing aboard Jimenez in 2013 and Gallardo this past offseason. And obviously, that's not the case this season. O's starters have thrown the third fewest innings in the majors. Enter the team's collection of long relievers.
It's unclear exactly how the addition of Wade Miley will change things. Most likely, he'll be slotted into the rotation with Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, Yovani Gallardo, and Bundy (for now). The Orioles need to create a spot on both the 25- and 40-man rosters, and the O's have also been working with a three-man bench lately. Wilson and Despaigne are the two long relievers who have options, so likely one of them will be sent down. You'd have to think the O's would prefer to jettison Jimenez from the roster, but that appears unlikely.
Buck Showalter will need to keep going to this cast of characters, and unfortunately, this could be the case next year as well. The only real hope is that this version of Tillman is for real (a dangerous assumption), and that Gausman and Bundy both stay healthy and continue to progress. Gallardo is somehow getting a pass that Jimenez never received, and Miley is the very embodiment of a back-end starter. If the Orioles don't develop a starter or pull another Miguel Gonzalez out of their hat, there really isn't much relief in sight. It's not like the O's are going to start paying top dollar for starting pitching, which they maybe shouldn't do anyway because of the risks involved.
The Orioles have constructed a flimsy bridge from the rotation to their dominant group of relievers. It's no sure thing this collection of starters can even get the ball to any of their relievers with a lead intact, but these long relievers will play an important part in how the O's fare the rest of the year. It's hard to expect a lot from them, because if they didn't have flaws in their game, they'd be in a starting rotation somewhere instead of a bullpen. But that's more or less what the O's have excelled in these last few successful seasons: getting helpful performances out of unlikely places. They'll need more of that.
23 October 2015
What To Know About Vance Worley
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The Orioles enter the 2015 offseason with a lot of questions, notably about their pitching staff. The Depot has already released its plans for the winter, but the Orioles didn't hesitate before making their first move. On Wednesday, the team snatched up Vance Worley from the Pirates, who had placed him on waivers. A 28-year-old swingman of sorts with three years of team control left, Worley has a few notable characteristics — many of which, for better or for worse, make him a perfect fit for Baltimore.
He didn't see much interest from other teams.
Players on waivers generally don't have the highest stock. After posting a 4.02 ERA across 71.2 innings in 2015, Worley fits that bill. Still, he pitched his way to a 2.85 ERA the year before, so he certainly has prospered in the past. It unnerves me, then, that so many competitors didn't want to bring him in.
When a team places a player on waivers, any other club can claim him. The priority goes in an inverse relationship to record, and the waiving team's league goes first. In other words, before the Orioles could touch Worley, 21 other teams — everyone in the National League, plus the six teams trailing Baltimore in the American League — had an opportunity to grab him. None of them did so; maybe that means they have other places to spend $2.7 million (his projected salary in arbitration), or maybe the Orioles have overlooked something.
This has happened to Worley before. This July, the Pirates brought Joe Blanton in from Kansas City. To clear a spot for him on the 40-man roster, they designated Worley for assignment and eventually placed him on waivers. At that point, any team in baseball could have picked him up; instead, all suitors declined, and he went to Triple-A. He actually had a better ERA then (3.78) than he did at the end of the season, but he still didn't garner any attention.
After 2011, the Rangers gave up on a little-known sidearmer, whom the Orioles promptly picked up. Darren O'Day rewarded the club's decision, giving them four incredible campaigns. As far as successful pitcher waiver claims go, however, that's about it for Baltimore. Josh Stinson amounted to nothing, as did Alex Burnett and Jorge Rondon (whom the team just designated for assignment to make room for Worley). The fact that Worley has gone under everyone else's radar leads me to believe he could fall into the latter group.
He's a serious overperformer.
A lone flukish season didn't cause this — Worley's consistently beaten his peripherals. In every year with at least 70 innings, he's allowed about a run fewer than we'd think:
When Worley's had an above-average RA, he's had an average DRA; when he's had an average RA, he's had a below-average DRA. (Of course, both his RA and his DRA sucked in 2013, but the sample there wasn't too large.) Through good times and bad, Worley has exceeded expectations.
Before 2015, Worley had started 73 of his 81 career appearances. That changed in 2015, as he entered in relief 15 times while making only eight starts. The latter went pretty poorly for him — he allowed a 4.81 ERA in 43.0 innings — but the former allowed him to excel, to the tune of a 2.83 ERA. With a 19.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate, to accompany a 22.1% soft-hit rate and 24.4% hard-hit rate, the relief version of Worley certainly held his own.
This resembles the stories of several other Orioles — to differing extents, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, and Brian Matusz have done well out of the bullpen after coming up as starters. Unlike those three, Worley has no platoon split, so Buck Showalter won't have to worry as much about matchups if he decides to use Worley in this role. Plus, Worley averaged nearly two innings per relief outing in 2015, so he could fill multiple frames late in games.
Among the many ups and downs of Dan Duquette's tenure atop the Orioles, the bullpen has generally remained sound. Duquette always digs up solid relievers, often crafting them out of one-time starters. (In this way, the Orioles are sort of the anti-Reds, who often try to force their relief pitchers into a starting role.) Although he clearly lacks a lengthy résumé in this role, Worley could certainly become the next out-of-nowhere, respectable Baltimore reliever.
He's shifted his location as of late.
In terms of runs allowed, Worley did better with the Pirates than he did with any other club: His two years with Pittsburgh saw him put up a 3.31 ERA over 182.2 innings. He only struck out 16.7% of the batters he faced, a downgrade from the 18.4% mark he posted prior, so he didn't blow batters away. His play with the Bucs came down to free passes and ground balls: His rate of the latter fell from 7.8% to 5.6%, while his rate of the former increased from 43.7% to 48.1%.
Worley relied on the same repertoire as a Pirate, without any significant changes in usage or velocity. He did alter something, though — his location:
Worley's lower pitches have always gone for ground balls (as they tend to do). He also managed to induce more swings on these offerings, which increased his O-Swing% to 29.7% from 25.6% and helped him limit bases on balls. A downward move may not seem like much, but it can make a massive difference if the pitcher pulls it off capably.
By his batted-ball outcomes, Worley diverges from many current Orioles, most of whom primarily accrue fly balls. He does match up insofar as strikeouts and walks are concerned (both stay low), and pairing that with an ability to keep the ball in the yard would work to his favor. Worley has evolved to a decent pitcher, whose low-balling ability should keep him that way.
***
In the end, you have an overlooked, overperforming, runner-scaring, bullpen-loving, all-around solid pitcher. The Orioles will clearly import more than just Worley in the months to come, but this looks like a solid first move, albeit one with some downside. After a 2015 season that didn't live up to the standard set in 2014, both Worley and the Orioles will look to improve in 2016.
The Orioles enter the 2015 offseason with a lot of questions, notably about their pitching staff. The Depot has already released its plans for the winter, but the Orioles didn't hesitate before making their first move. On Wednesday, the team snatched up Vance Worley from the Pirates, who had placed him on waivers. A 28-year-old swingman of sorts with three years of team control left, Worley has a few notable characteristics — many of which, for better or for worse, make him a perfect fit for Baltimore.
He didn't see much interest from other teams.
Players on waivers generally don't have the highest stock. After posting a 4.02 ERA across 71.2 innings in 2015, Worley fits that bill. Still, he pitched his way to a 2.85 ERA the year before, so he certainly has prospered in the past. It unnerves me, then, that so many competitors didn't want to bring him in.
When a team places a player on waivers, any other club can claim him. The priority goes in an inverse relationship to record, and the waiving team's league goes first. In other words, before the Orioles could touch Worley, 21 other teams — everyone in the National League, plus the six teams trailing Baltimore in the American League — had an opportunity to grab him. None of them did so; maybe that means they have other places to spend $2.7 million (his projected salary in arbitration), or maybe the Orioles have overlooked something.
This has happened to Worley before. This July, the Pirates brought Joe Blanton in from Kansas City. To clear a spot for him on the 40-man roster, they designated Worley for assignment and eventually placed him on waivers. At that point, any team in baseball could have picked him up; instead, all suitors declined, and he went to Triple-A. He actually had a better ERA then (3.78) than he did at the end of the season, but he still didn't garner any attention.
After 2011, the Rangers gave up on a little-known sidearmer, whom the Orioles promptly picked up. Darren O'Day rewarded the club's decision, giving them four incredible campaigns. As far as successful pitcher waiver claims go, however, that's about it for Baltimore. Josh Stinson amounted to nothing, as did Alex Burnett and Jorge Rondon (whom the team just designated for assignment to make room for Worley). The fact that Worley has gone under everyone else's radar leads me to believe he could fall into the latter group.
He's a serious overperformer.
At first glance, Worley looks like a typical pitcher — i.e., one whose results match his peripherals. Across 508.2 career innings, he's posted a 3.79 ERA to go along with a 3.76 FIP; taking into account park and league factors yields an ERA- of 99 and a FIP- of 98. With an inflated BABIP (.319) and a typical strand rate (73.6%) to his name, Worley doesn't seem to have benefited from good fortune.
Deserved Run Average, or DRA, begs to differ. Created earlier this year at Baseball Prospectus, DRA gauges a pitcher's performance much more accurately than ERA or FIP can. In DRA's eyes, Worley's been exceptionally lucky: While he's allowed 4.25 runs per nine innings over his career, he should have allowed 5.15 runs.
How does this stack up to the rest of the majors? This scatter plot shows the 169 active pitchers with at least 500 innings. As indicated by the red arrow, Worley sticks out a bit:
More concretely, Worley's RA-DRA differential tops every other hurler in the aforementioned sample:
How does this stack up to the rest of the majors? This scatter plot shows the 169 active pitchers with at least 500 innings. As indicated by the red arrow, Worley sticks out a bit:
More concretely, Worley's RA-DRA differential tops every other hurler in the aforementioned sample:
| Rank | Name | IP | RA | DRA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vance Worley | 508.2 | 4.25 | 5.15 | -0.90 |
| 2 | Joe Beimel | 680.0 | 4.38 | 5.17 | -0.79 |
| 3 | Tim Stauffer | 595.2 | 4.17 | 4.90 | -0.73 |
| 4 | Brad Ziegler | 528.2 | 2.84 | 3.49 | -0.65 |
| 5 | Kris Medlen | 571.0 | 3.39 | 4.02 | -0.63 |
| 6 | Chad Billingsley | 1,212.1 | 4.05 | 4.61 | -0.56 |
| 7 | Madison Bumgarner | 1,171.0 | 3.33 | 3.87 | -0.54 |
| 8 | Francisco Rodriguez | 892.1 | 2.92 | 3.39 | -0.47 |
| 9 | Adam Wainwright | 1,569.2 | 3.25 | 3.71 | -0.46 |
| 10 | Mike Minor | 652.2 | 4.29 | 4.75 | -0.46 |
A lone flukish season didn't cause this — Worley's consistently beaten his peripherals. In every year with at least 70 innings, he's allowed about a run fewer than we'd think:
| Year | Team | IP | RA | DRA | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Phillies | 131.2 | 3.21 | 4.16 | -0.95 |
| 2012 | Phillies | 133.0 | 4.67 | 5.64 | -0.97 |
| 2014 | Pirates | 110.2 | 3.50 | 4.43 | -0.93 |
| 2015 | Pirates | 71.2 | 4.52 | 5.54 | -1.02 |
When Worley's had an above-average RA, he's had an average DRA; when he's had an average RA, he's had a below-average DRA. (Of course, both his RA and his DRA sucked in 2013, but the sample there wasn't too large.) Through good times and bad, Worley has exceeded expectations.
DRA adjusts for a number of external factors that can impact a pitcher, including pitch framing, defense, quality of opponents, and ballparks. Worley hasn't seen any huge gains in this area — for his career, he's received a total of 3.1 Adjusted Runs. Rather, his overperformance simply seems like something baked into his profile. Like Miguel Gonzalez or Wei-Yin Chen (who rank 36th and 41st, respectively, in the aforementioned sample), he's spat in the face of his peripherals.
This doesn't necessarily matter for 2016. DRA does well to describe a pitcher's production, but it doesn't give much predictive value. Nevertheless, it does show that Worley fits a certain mold, which the Orioles have prioritized in recent years. Gonzalez demonstrated in 2015 why that approach doesn't always work, as his output regressed to fit his background statistics; while it's not a sure thing, Worley could do the same.
He's done a great job of holding runners.
But enough of the doom and gloom. Let's look at an area where Worley dominates: preventing stolen bases. Out of the 873 possible stolen-base opportunities in his career, only 26 have led to an attempt. Compared to an average pitcher — against whom runners will take off in about 5% of their chances — this 3.0% clip sets Worley apart.
How does this translate to runs? According to rSB, the stolen-base component of DRS, Worley's netted his clubs three runs via holding runners. Among pitchers with 500 innings since his 2010 debut, that places him 47th — a solid ranking, out of 146 names. He fares even better when we adjust for his lack of innings: By rSB/180, he comes in 30th. This obviously doesn't have a huge sway on his performance, but it's still an asset.
Worley has never thrown to first all that often. His high in pickoff attempts came in 2012, when he notched 43, and he's yet to catch a runner in this manner. He also doesn't have the advantage of a southpaw, who can stare down any advancement threats. Like Chris Tillman, Worley simply manages to make the opposition stay put. Continuing to do so would certainly help him keep a job on the team.
He did much better out of the bullpen.This doesn't necessarily matter for 2016. DRA does well to describe a pitcher's production, but it doesn't give much predictive value. Nevertheless, it does show that Worley fits a certain mold, which the Orioles have prioritized in recent years. Gonzalez demonstrated in 2015 why that approach doesn't always work, as his output regressed to fit his background statistics; while it's not a sure thing, Worley could do the same.
He's done a great job of holding runners.
But enough of the doom and gloom. Let's look at an area where Worley dominates: preventing stolen bases. Out of the 873 possible stolen-base opportunities in his career, only 26 have led to an attempt. Compared to an average pitcher — against whom runners will take off in about 5% of their chances — this 3.0% clip sets Worley apart.
How does this translate to runs? According to rSB, the stolen-base component of DRS, Worley's netted his clubs three runs via holding runners. Among pitchers with 500 innings since his 2010 debut, that places him 47th — a solid ranking, out of 146 names. He fares even better when we adjust for his lack of innings: By rSB/180, he comes in 30th. This obviously doesn't have a huge sway on his performance, but it's still an asset.
Worley has never thrown to first all that often. His high in pickoff attempts came in 2012, when he notched 43, and he's yet to catch a runner in this manner. He also doesn't have the advantage of a southpaw, who can stare down any advancement threats. Like Chris Tillman, Worley simply manages to make the opposition stay put. Continuing to do so would certainly help him keep a job on the team.
Before 2015, Worley had started 73 of his 81 career appearances. That changed in 2015, as he entered in relief 15 times while making only eight starts. The latter went pretty poorly for him — he allowed a 4.81 ERA in 43.0 innings — but the former allowed him to excel, to the tune of a 2.83 ERA. With a 19.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate, to accompany a 22.1% soft-hit rate and 24.4% hard-hit rate, the relief version of Worley certainly held his own.
This resembles the stories of several other Orioles — to differing extents, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, and Brian Matusz have done well out of the bullpen after coming up as starters. Unlike those three, Worley has no platoon split, so Buck Showalter won't have to worry as much about matchups if he decides to use Worley in this role. Plus, Worley averaged nearly two innings per relief outing in 2015, so he could fill multiple frames late in games.
Among the many ups and downs of Dan Duquette's tenure atop the Orioles, the bullpen has generally remained sound. Duquette always digs up solid relievers, often crafting them out of one-time starters. (In this way, the Orioles are sort of the anti-Reds, who often try to force their relief pitchers into a starting role.) Although he clearly lacks a lengthy résumé in this role, Worley could certainly become the next out-of-nowhere, respectable Baltimore reliever.
He's shifted his location as of late.
In terms of runs allowed, Worley did better with the Pirates than he did with any other club: His two years with Pittsburgh saw him put up a 3.31 ERA over 182.2 innings. He only struck out 16.7% of the batters he faced, a downgrade from the 18.4% mark he posted prior, so he didn't blow batters away. His play with the Bucs came down to free passes and ground balls: His rate of the latter fell from 7.8% to 5.6%, while his rate of the former increased from 43.7% to 48.1%.
Worley relied on the same repertoire as a Pirate, without any significant changes in usage or velocity. He did alter something, though — his location:
Worley's lower pitches have always gone for ground balls (as they tend to do). He also managed to induce more swings on these offerings, which increased his O-Swing% to 29.7% from 25.6% and helped him limit bases on balls. A downward move may not seem like much, but it can make a massive difference if the pitcher pulls it off capably.
By his batted-ball outcomes, Worley diverges from many current Orioles, most of whom primarily accrue fly balls. He does match up insofar as strikeouts and walks are concerned (both stay low), and pairing that with an ability to keep the ball in the yard would work to his favor. Worley has evolved to a decent pitcher, whose low-balling ability should keep him that way.
***
In the end, you have an overlooked, overperforming, runner-scaring, bullpen-loving, all-around solid pitcher. The Orioles will clearly import more than just Worley in the months to come, but this looks like a solid first move, albeit one with some downside. After a 2015 season that didn't live up to the standard set in 2014, both Worley and the Orioles will look to improve in 2016.
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