Showing posts with label Todd Redmond. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Todd Redmond. Show all posts

23 March 2013

Todd Redmond, from 220 Miles Away

Sometimes, the news moves faster than I can publish my thoughts. This article was far more interesting and relevant before Friday, when the Blue Jays claimed Todd Redmond on waivers. I had to decide whether to scrap the article and leave my slot vacant, edit it on the fly, or publish it as originally written in hopes that it might still be interesting.

As the end of spring training and Opening Day approach, all major-league teams are making roster moves to set their 25-man roster. After they’ve set their major-league roster, then they turn their attention to the minor-league rosters, but sometimes they option players to specific teams earlier rather than later. As of this writing, the Orioles have optioned seven players to AAA Norfolk – as opposed to sending them to minor-league camp – and it’s a fairly good bet that those five will be in Norfolk at the start of the 2013 season.  We’ve discussed Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes, two of the five, a lot already. Two other optionees are Danny Valencia, who will likely start the season as the Tides' third baseman and hoping either J.J. Hardy or Manny Machado wipes out; and Luis Exposito, a backup catcher candidate. The other three optioned to Norfolk are pitchers -- Zach Clark, a long-term Orioles organization player who had a surprisingly good 2012 season; Mike Belfiore, whom I haven’t seen at all; and Todd Redmond.
In my Tides’ functions, I get to see both Norfolk players and players on the other thirteen International League teams. Todd Redmond was originally with the Pirates’ organization, but was traded to the Braves after reaching High-A. The Braves’ AAA affiliate, Gwinnett (County, Georgia) is in the International League, and Redmond spent 3 ½ seasons with Gwinnett before being traded to the Reds last July. As a result, I’ve seen Redmond make four starts over the years. What can Norfolk and Orioles fans expect from Todd Redmond?
Over the past four years, I’ve seen Todd Redmond make four starts for the Gwinnett Braves. He’s been the winning pitcher in all four starts, with a 2.05 ERA.
Date
IP
H
R
ER
BB
K
HR
GB
FB
4/9/2009
5
3
1
1
1
3
1
6
11
8/20/2009
6
4
2
2
1
1
1
4
13
9/22/2011
5
4
2
1
2
2
1
6
9
4/10/2012
6
4
1
1
2
7
0
3
11

He’s pitched well at Norfolk’s Harbor Park, and he’s been a fly-ball pitcher there. That’s good; Harbor Park is very large from power alley to power alley and is at sea level; fly balls don’t carry. He hasn’t pitched very deeply into games; two of his starts were early in the season when he might have been on a limited pitch count but the other two weren’t. In these four games, he didn’t start an inning without finishing it.
From my observation, Redmond has impressed me as a pitcher who gets batters out. He hasn’t been overpowering, nor has he impressed me with his overwhelming command. When I saw that Redmond was going to be the opposing pitcher, I knew I was going to see a competently-pitched game, one with a lot of contact but not much solid contact, and one in which the Tides were going to have trouble scoring runs.
Todd Redmond has never been and never will be an outstanding prospect. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff. He’s never going to be an ace starter or a closer. If he does get a chance in the major leagues, he’ll have to be effective from the very beginning; if he pitches poorly (as he did in a one-game start for the Reds in 2012) he won’t get a second chance. And he’ll likely be limited to fifth starter or middle-inning relief pitcher. I would guess he’s probably the number eleven or twelve candidate for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation. I would also guess that if the Orioles need a spot on the 40-man roster, he’s a good candidate for removal. (Looks I hit that one on the head.)
Despite that, Todd Redmond is a good candidate for success as a Norfolk Tide. He has pitched well at Harbor Park in the past and his stuff seems to be a good match for the park. Even if he doesn’t pitch for the Orioles, he’s likely to be useful by keeping Norfolk in most games so that the relief pitchers will pitch in meaningful situations. If Todd Redmond is the Tides’ starting pitcher, the chances are that the game will be worth attending.

20 March 2013

A Closer Look at the Fifth-Starter Battle

The Orioles' fifth-rotation spot battle seems to be a three-horse race between Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, and Zach Britton. Steve Johnson has an outside shot to win, while Tommy Hunter is slated for a relief role and Jair Jurrjens is a long shot and likely on his way to the minors soon. (Todd Redmond was recently optioned to Triple-A Norfolk.)

The only name above that is out of minor league options is Hunter. Still, Buck Showalter and the Orioles have been intrigued by recent Rule 5 pickup T.J. McFarland, but in order to keep him on the roster, they may have to trade or release Hunter. And understandably, Hunter wants to stay.

The four rotation locks seem to be Jason Hammel, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman (who's also out of options), and Miguel Gonzalez. Hammel and Chen are pretty good bets to have decent seasons, although it's difficult to feel overly confident about either Tillman or Gonzalez. Tillman was outstanding in 86 innings last year, but there's no guarantee the 24-year-old produces in a similar fashion in 2013 while taking over an expanded role. And Gonzalez, 28, had never pitched in the majors before last season, when he burst onto the scene and gave the Orioles 105.1 innings and a 3.25 ERA. Like Tillman, Gonzalez will have to prove that he's up to the task again and can hold on to his spot in the rotation.

Between Gonzalez, Arrieta, Matusz, Britton, Johnson, and Jurrjens, the Orioles have six back-of-the-rotation types between the ages of 25 and 28. Even if neither pitcher is a particularly great option, that's not bad to have, especially since they all can be stashed at Norfolk if needed. For what it's worth, Hammel is 30 and Chen is only 27, so the Orioles' starting options are all relatively young. (The Yankees' rotation, for example, has two starters over the age of 37: Andy Pettitte (40) and Hiroki Kuroda (38). At some point, one, or both, of those guys is going to break down.)

I guess I never really noticed it before -- other than their general lack of success in the big leagues -- but Arrieta and Matusz aren't all that different. Take a look at their overall MLB numbers (small sample size alert):

IP
ERA
FIP
xFIP
K/9
BB/9
Arrieta
334.1
5.33
4.73
4.42
6.84
3.82
Matusz
368.0
5.36
4.71
4.50
7.34
3.47

Matusz strikes out a half batter more per nine innings and is a little better at not giving up walks. However, Arrieta gets more groundballs (44.0% to 35.5%) and is better at keeping the ball in the ballpark (1.24 HR/9 to 1.42 HR/9). Even their split stats are similar:

Arrieta vs. RH: 157.2 IP, .297 wOBA
Arrieta vs. LH: 176.2 IP, .373 wOBA

Matusz vs. LH: 94.0 IP, .286 wOBA
Matusz vs. RH: 274.0 IP, .376 wOBA

Both pitchers are much better at getting same-handed batters out (which Matusz demonstrated so effectively in last season's dominant bullpen stint).

But Zach Britton, in fewer innings, has been better than both Arrieta and Matusz. Take a look:

IP
ERA
FIP
xFIP
K/9
BB/9
Britton
214.2
4.74
4.09
4.10
6.29
3.94

Again, small sample size. Britton is aided by a strong groundball rate (54.9%), but his strikeout and walk rates need to rise and fall, respectively. I think Arrieta and Matusz hold a slim advantage over Britton, but maybe they shouldn't.

-----

In the end, I'm not sure it matters much initially who wins the battle for the fifth spot. All three deserve another chance to start in the majors at some point (along with Johnson and probably Jurrjens), and they'll likely receive that opportunity because of another pitcher's injury or ineffectiveness. It's important to remember that spring training stats don't really matter (remember Jake Fox?), and hopefully the names above can navigate through the seemingly endless amount of spring games while remaining injury free.

Unfortunately for Matusz, though, I wouldn't be surprised if his fantastic relief work from last season is eventually used against him if he gets off to a slow start in the rotation. If he has a couple of rocky outings, it'll be much easier to simply use him out of the bullpen, since he's proven (in a limited amount of innings) that he can excel in that role. An effective Matusz out of the bullpen is valuable, but it's not nearly as valuable as a decent starter version of Matusz that pitches more innings.

08 February 2013

Arrivals and Departures (2/8/2013)

A short primer on options was provided in an earlier post found here.  If you have any further questions about this issue or other baseball related issues, feel free to email us at CamdenDepot@gmail.com.

40 Man Transactions since 2/5/2013:

February 8, 2013 - Right-handed minor league pitcher Todd Redmond was claimed off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds.  In a corresponding move, outfielder Trayvon Robinson was designated for assignment. 
Throughout his career, Todd Redmond has been a starting pitcher 200 times and a reliever 7.  However, his future most likely lies as a relief pitcher.  As a starter, he has a 90 mph fastball and an above average curve.  His change works well enough in the minors as a show me pitch, but likely is not good enough for him to work through lefties at the Major League level.  What gives some hope for his utility is that as a draft and follow in 2005, he had shown the ability to work up into the mid 90s.  That velocity decreased quickly with that, perhaps, due to shortened time between starts.  As a reliever, he may see his velocity return and he could be effective when placed in situations where he would face right handed batters.

Another benefit is that I am pretty sure he has an option remaining and can be moved back and forth between Baltimore and Norfolk (options were used in 2009 and 2012; an option was used in 2010, but Redmond was outrighted after 10 days which should negate the option).  You may remember that I bring up shuttling quite frequently.  I don't think it is necessarily a great strategy.  Having players with excellent, unquestionable talent is preferable.  However, if you are filling out the fringes of your roster then it can be quite useful to employ players who can be moved back and forth based on the needs of the need and the aptitude of the player.  Someone with any options, like Trayvon Robinson, locks the team down into a situation where they have a marginal talent with little leverage in dealing the player due to being unable to send the player down and a reduced market of teams in need of an extra outfielder at the end of Spring Training.

Daniel Moroz brought up Trayvon Robinson earlier in the off season.  Basically, Robert Andino was a pretty bad second baseman in 2012 and he was not going to be on the team in 2013.  The Orioles acquiring Alexi Casilla made that intention relatively clear.  The team could really only manage dealing for another player who had little value as well.  Robinson can probably be best summed up as Xavier Avery with a little more power and no more options.  That simply is not a very valuable player, but one that is similar in value to Robert Andino.



Options Remaining

* 3 2 1
Pitchers 



Jake Arrieta 
7/6/2012 O O
Luis Ayala 
X X X
Mike Belfiore 
O O O
Zach Britton 
7/9/2011 6/6/2012 O
Dylan Bundy  3/11/2012 O O O
Wei-Yin Chen 
| | |
Zach Clark 
O O O
Miguel Gonzalez 
O O O
Jason Hammel 
X X X
Tommy Hunter 
8/16/2008 4/1/2009 5/7/2012
Jim Johnson 
6/3/2006 3/12/2007 5/1/2010
Steve Johnson 
6/3/2012 O O
Brian Matusz  3/14/2009 6/30/2011 7/1/2012 O
TJ McFarland
1/5/1900 1/5/1900 5
Darren O'Day 
5/13/2008 O O
Troy Patton 
3/14/2009 3/15/2010 3/11/2011
Todd Redmond
3/16/2009 3/18/2012 O
Pedro Strop 
3/10/2008 3/24/2010 5/4/2011
Chris Tillman 
3/30/2010 5/29/2011 3/31/2012
Tsuyoshi Wada 
X X X
Catchers 



Luis Exposito 
3/17/2011 3/23/2012 O
Taylor Teagarden 
7/21/2008 4/27/2010 3/29/2011
Matt Wieters 
O O O
Infielders 



Wilson Betemit 
X X X
Russ Canzler
3/30/2012 O O
Alexi Casilla 
3/23/2007 3/14/2008 5/6/2009
Chris Davis 
7/6/2009 4/23/2010 3/29/2011
Ryan Flaherty 
O O O
J.J. Hardy 
X X X
Manny Machado 
O O O
Yamaico Navarro 
3/17/2011 5/29/2012 O
Brian Roberts 
X X X
Jonathan Schoop 
O O O
Danny Valencia 
3/19/2010 5/9/2012 O
Outfielders 



Xavier Avery 
5/29/2012 O O
L.J. Hoes 
O O O
Adam Jones 
X X X
Nick Markakis 
X X X
Nate McLouth
X X X
Nolan Reimold 
3/20/2009 5/12/2010 3/28/2011

A "|" denotes an understanding that the player must agree to being sent to the minors.

"Rule 5" denotes that the player cannot be sent down without being offered back to his previous parent club.