Book Review: Keith Law's Smart Baseball

We all can -- and should -- strive to learn something new. That's the main idea behind Keith Law's book, Smart Baseball.

The extended title of the book is Smart Baseball: The Story Behind the Old Stats That Are Ruining the Game, the New Ones That Are Running It, and the Right Way to Think About Baseball, and, well, that tells you plenty. Law undertakes the arduous task of explaining which traditional baseball statistics are misleading or not that informative (part one), and which numbers fans should be looking at instead (part two). Some chapters focus on topics like why batting average is flawed, why pitcher wins can be deceiving, and the issues with fielding percentage. Then, to close things out in part three, Law puts newer stats to use while painting a picture of what's next (including MLB Statcast and how scouting is changing).

If you've ever made your way to, say, the comments section under a MASNsports.com article, or maybe engaged in a debate about baseball on Twitter or *gasp* Facebook, then you know the number of fans who still rely on things like batting average, runs batted in, pitcher wins, and saves to win arguments about the value of current players. Because of the rise of sites like Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, there aren't quite as many of those fans around, but there are still lots of them. And that's OK, because not everyone has to look at baseball the same way.

But for those fans who want to know more about the game and how to more approximately value what's happening on the field, this book is a tremendous help. For someone looking to simply jump headfirst into baseball analytics, I can't think of many better ways to get started. Even for those who already read lots of analytical writing about baseball, Law's work is still worthwhile and includes new ways to approach much-debated topics.

Law tackles complex subjects and breaks them down bit by bit, slowly adding to each part and showing you why things matter. Why is on-base percentage important? What the heck is WAR, wOBA, or wRC+, and why should you not avoid them? How do analysts even attempt to separate pitching and defense? What makes one fielder better than another, and what's the best way to measure that? Why is the clutch baseball player a myth? For those seeking to learn more about the game they love, Law's book is a quick and informative read.

The last line of the epilogue stuck with me: "Using the best knowledge we have right now while remembering that we may know a lot more in the future is the essence of Smart Baseball." There's always something else to learn, and that's especially true if you can't get enough baseball.

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Smart Baseball
Keith Law
304 pages
William Morrow
Paperback available: March 13, 2018

Is Nick Markakis an Everyday Player?

In his weekly ESPN.com chat last Thursday, Keith Law replied to a question on free agent Nick Markakis. He answers questions honestly and bluntly, as is his style, but I was still a bit surprised by his response:

PA (DC)
4/$40M too much for Markakis? Could the O's do better by flipping Gonzalez or Norris + a prospect?

Klaw (1:23 PM)
Way too much. Not even clear he's a regular at this point. And I was generally a believer in his talent when he was younger.

At least for the next couple years, I'm not sure it's fair to say that Markakis (who turns 31 years old today) is not a regular player. The hope is that his career worst 2013 season was an aberration. And indeed, he did bounce back. Except for that awful 2013, Markakis has been worth at least 1.6 fWAR in every season.

The topic of Markakis is popular among O's fans. In May, Nate wrote about Markakis's drop in power when facing left-handed pitching. In June, Jon wrote about Markakis's future value and what he could be seeking if/when he became a free agent. And a couple weeks ago, Nate and Matt Perez, respectively, offered their thoughts on why the O's should and shouldn't bring Markakis back.

What to do with Markakis is a divisive issue. Most, if not all, fans appreciate what Markakis has done throughout his career in Baltimore and recognize that he gave what he had when the team was terrible -- which it has been for most of his career. But a sizable group of fans also realize that loyalty is fine, but what they want to keep seeing most of all is a winning team. And that's the dividing point -- does it make sense to roll the dice and possibly give Markakis more than he's worth? Keeping a popular player around is fine, but it's not quite as pleasant if his production steadily slips.

There have been conflicting reports on Markakis's re-signing so far. Him returning to Baltimore seems like a foregone conclusion, but a deal has not been completed yet. Different contract figures have also been reported, though there is agreement that the length will probably be four years. But the above question mentions a four-year, $40 million deal. One report discusses a four-year, $44 million contract. And MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Markakis would get $48 million. Jon noted in his Markakis piece that a three-year, $30 million deal would be more than fair, but a shallow market appears to be driving up his value. That's not uncommon for a popular free agent target.

Keith Law may very well be wrong about Markakis's current abilities. He's not working with a crystal ball; he just offers his opinion. (And no, this isn't because of some anti-team bias.) And he's not wrong about Markakis's apparent younger talent. Many fans were dreaming of future phenomenal seasons after Markakis's fantastic 2008 (138 wRC+, along with excellent defense). While he's been good since then -- sometimes better, sometimes worse -- he has not been great. The great element of Markakis's game has been gone for a while, with most of that tied to his inability to consistently hit for power. He hasn't hit more than 15 home runs in a season since 2009.

If the Orioles do sign Markakis for four years and between $40 and $48 million, they would likely be projecting him to be worth somewhere between 1.5 and 2 wins for the next few years. Steamer projects him to be worth 1.3 wins in 2015. That's probably close enough, though that doesn't really inspire confidence going forward, especially considering the large amount of games he's played and the lack of rest over the years. Markakis is a good player -- and still an everyday player. But that may not be the case two or three years from now.

Photo via Keith Allison

What Have We Learned About T.J. McFarland?

Photo: Keith Allison

Ed. Note: This post was written before last night's game.

When T.J. McFarland was selected last December in the 2012 Rule 5 draft, the Orioles seemed to have made a decent pickup. At the time, Baseball America's Jim Callis said, "It's not like you are really having to stretch to believe to say this guy could be a (No.) 5 or maybe a 4 starter. ... I don't think he is a high-ceiling guy, but he could be a back of the rotation guy. It cost, what, $50,000 if you're wrong." Ben Badler, also of Baseball America, said, "He's got great control and can really sink the ball. The Indians had him as a starter. I don't think he has the repertoire to have success as a starter at the big league level, but maybe they put him in the 'pen and he can stick there. I thought this was one of the better picks of this draft." (For what it's worth, Keith Law weighed in that McFarland is an "Org guy. Not a prospect." So Law was likely tempering expectations, unless, of course, you believe that he hates the Orioles.)

So far, Badler seems wise in retrospect, because McFarland has pitched relatively well out of the O's bullpen in what is his first work as a major league pitcher. In 56 innings, McFarland has a 4.18 ERA despite being a little unlucky (.322 BABIP is a bit higher than MLB average of .293). His 53.9% ground ball rate also trails only Jim Johnson (56.5%) and Zach Britton (54%) on the O's pitching staff.

McFarland's numbers are very close to what the average MLB pitcher has done this season. Take a look:

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/FB
MLB Avg	3.89	7.53	3.00	0.97	10.6%
McFarland	4.18	7.71	3.05	0.80	10.4%

McFarland, now 24, has not been fantastic, but there is certainly something to be said for being an average pitcher in the majors. It's a whole lot better than pitching like Freddy Garcia did in his 10 starts earlier this season.

So McFarland is relatively young, seems to be a decent option pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen, and is under team control through the 2018 season. He isn't eligible for arbitration until 2016. Plus, he's proficient in getting opposing batters to hit the ball on the ground, which is a great skill when J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado are covering the left side of the infield. The Orioles also didn't have to surrender any players to obtain McFarland (just a little bit of money) -- which is normally better than building a bullpen by sending away a player with any kind of upside.

Still, as Callis mentions above, McFarland has a limited ceiling. He relies mostly on his sinker and slider, and his fastball velocity only sits around 88-89. In a June Baltimore Sports and Life piece suggesting that McFarland should stay in the bullpen, Tucker Blair noted that McFarland is not very good when facing batters a second time through the lineup. As a reliever, the first time through a lineup McFarland has held batters to a .250/.310/.378 line. And the second time through? .300/.341/.475. (McFarland also started one game and didn't perform well overall, lasting 2.2 innings and allowing three runs and seven hits on June 28 against the Yankees.) Granted, that's an even smaller sample size for someone who's pitching in the majors for the first time.

Strangely enough, McFarland, a 6'3 lefty, hasn't done well against left-handed hitters. 

In 24 IP vs. lefties: .338 wOBA

In 32 IP vs. righties: .303 wOBA

Those may be two things to keep an eye on. If McFarland struggles to retire batters a second time through the lineup, it'll be difficult for him to ever pitch in the rotation. And if he's not retiring lefties consistently -- especially if right-handed batters start hitting him better -- he also loses a chunk of value.

Regardless, McFarland obviously has some flaws. So does Ryan Flaherty, who the Orioles selected in the 2011 Rule 5 draft. But both have been useful at times this season, and they were both added for very little. There are worse ways to round out a roster.

Google Guessing with the Orioles

It is a slow beginning of the week here at the Depot, but things will be back in motion tomorrow.  Be sure to check out some of our more popular stories in the past week, helpfully located in the column to the left.  Also to the left is our Facebook feed, so like us.

Anyway to pass the time during the lunch hour, Google Guessing the Orioles:

Click to Make Larger

Yes, it is true.  When you type "Who does Keith Law hate", Google assumes you want to know about a bias against the Orioles.

Anyway, feel free to explore on your own and tell us what you find.

Keith Law Mentions Possible O's Draft Targets

In Keith Law's chat on March 31, 2011, he wrote:

The only substantive thing I've heard on them is a preference for a college player, which would probably put them on Hultzen, Bradley, Jungmann, Gray.

 Here is what we wrote about these targets a week or so ago:

Danny Hultzen, LHSP
University of Virginia
Hultzen is a highly polished pitcher with fringe plus offerings. I do not think there is much projection left in his pitches with the exception of his change up. He shows good feel for it and it might qualify as a future plus-plus offering. Command is not an issue, but I think he could improve upon his placement and that would improve how he uses those pitches. His dominance so far this season has been largely due to how well he has been able to place his slider. Some like to think if you flash a skill, you own the skill. I'm a little more conservative than that, but do think the possibility is there. Like Bradley, I think he will move quickly through the minors and not be challenged until the Majors. For comparison's sake, I would put Brian Matusz above him or Bradley.

Jed Bradley, LHSP
Georgia Tech
I tend to value college players and college lefties a great deal. Bradley fulfills both. He throws a fastball in the low 90s and accompanies that with a fringe-plus change up and a good slider. He is the type of pitcher who is a safe bet to glide through the minors and not meet resistance until he faces more polished hitters in the Majors. He has a good strong body and a motion without any red flags for me. I'm hoping to see him in person when I make it to Clemson this year.

Taylor Jungmann, RHSP
University of Texas - Austin
Jungmann is safer than Gray and has the potential to be a front end starter. His pitching motion is easier than Gray's as it is not as maximum effort. However, it should be noted that there may be some interest in lengthening his stride as currently it is short enough that he puts extra stress on his shoulder to get his arm to catch up. It may also be a situation where he is a very good prospect and it might be a poor idea to change anything significantly. He has a low 90s fastball and slots his change up similarly to make it an effective offering. Jungmann also has a slurve that is not as sharp as Gray's, but flashes plus with good command. He is another solid arm in this draft class.

Sonny Gray, RHSP
Vanderbilt University
I might be on an island here, but many look at his full effort delivery and his small stature . . . then see a closer in the making. Although it is a full effort delivery, I think it can be repeatable. His stuff is electric with a hard, tailing fastball that he keeps in the mid to low 90s and a plus-plus curve that has movement in two planes. He has had some control issues in the past and many blame the delivery on it, but from reports I have read this year it sounds that control has not been as worrisome. He has also been working on a slider that would give his repertoire a boost in the depth of his offerings. I would be quite excited to land him.

Keith Law on the Fan Tonight

Keith Law appeared on the Fan with Jeremy Conn's Playmakers tonight to talk about prospects on the Orioles.

On Matt Wieters:
Law said he was not surprised that Wieters needed time to adjust. Few players come out and perform when they hit the big leagues . . . there are few Ryan Brauns. He thinks he will be a star by 2012 and 2013 when the Orioles will be ready to compete in the AL East.

Thoughts on the Orioles not signing a big name this offseason:
Law said he has been a supporter of Andy MacPhail devoting money to the minors leagues and developmental system. You won't win by trying to outspend the Yankees and Red Sox. The GM needed patience for the system to replenish itself and prepare them to having waves of talent rising up every year. In a year or two guys like Wieters, Jones, Reimold, and Matusz will be performing at a high level. A year or two after that another wave of talent will arrive in the form of guys like Britton and Joseph. Then another wave will come with guys like Hobgood, Coffey, and others.

On Brian Matusz:
Matusz is a player who was not going to develop in the minors. He secondary pitches are very good and overmatched HiA and AA batters. Add that to an above average fastball and it was clear that he would need to develop in the majors. The only aspect of his game that needs work is fastball command. When he solidifies that he will profile as a no. 2 starter or even as an unconvential no. 1 starter. He has a David Cone style approach where he uses his secondary pitches against both right handers and left handers to set them up on his fastball.

On Zach Britton:
Law is high on Zach Britton. He is a traditional sinker/slider pitcher with a good slider and a plus sinker. He uses these quite well to miss bats and induce groundballs. He should be able to be a top of the rotation pitcher. The high grade (no. 25) in this year's rankings is in large part due to his improving changeup which makes him more of a threat to batters on both sides of the plate. Law then talked about how he talked to three scouts who each said he was one of the best if not the best pitcher they watched all season. They gave very high praise including one who joked with Law not to place him too high on the list because he is trying to talk his GM in trading for him. Law mentioned that that won't happen as the Orioles are high on him as well. It may take about a year and half more development, but if Britton cuts down on his walks and improves the changeup he could be very special.

On Josh Bell:
Bell needs some developmental time. He has one of the best left handed swings in the minors, but his right handed approach needs a lot of work. His defense is a work in progress. His feet and athleticism are there, so Law thinks he can make it. He views the Dodgers system as one where players do not get a high level of instruction and that the Orioles do a better job of that. He thinks Bell is good enough that it would have been foolish for the Orioles to lock themselves in place with a 3 to 4 year deal at the corners and block Bell.

On Brandon Snyder:
The big question is if Snyder will have enough power. His swing is very nice, but it has never produced any power. His defense is solid at first, too. The power needs to show up if the Orioles are going to slot him in at first. If he does start hitting home runs he will clearly be an everyday player.

Jake Arrieta
Law sees him as a fourth starter, but mentions that the O's brass think higher of him than that. He has improved his control, which was the big knock on him. The consensus from scouts is that he is a 4th starter and that is not a bad thing as there are several pitchers in the pipeline that will challenge him for a slot in the rotation.

On Chris Tillman:
He looks light a number 2 pitcher, but has more development to go. The Orioles were somewhat forced to promote him before he was ready and will need to do that development in the majors. His curve has good depth on his curve and he has a good body. His command needs improvement. Very high potential.

bergesen
Law thinks Bergesen is a bottom of the rotation type of pitcher. He does not miss enough bats, but he does work down in the zone so that minimizes the damage of batted balls. His main role on the team will wind up being someone who can hold a rotation position warm on the cheap until another arm pushes him out of the way. He could be a 5th or possibly a 4th starter on a good team.