What Have We Learned About T.J. McFarland?

Photo: Keith Allison

Ed. Note: This post was written before last night's game.

When T.J. McFarland was selected last December in the 2012 Rule 5 draft, the Orioles seemed to have made a decent pickup. At the time, Baseball America's Jim Callis said, "It's not like you are really having to stretch to believe to say this guy could be a (No.) 5 or maybe a 4 starter. ... I don't think he is a high-ceiling guy, but he could be a back of the rotation guy. It cost, what, $50,000 if you're wrong." Ben Badler, also of Baseball America, said, "He's got great control and can really sink the ball. The Indians had him as a starter. I don't think he has the repertoire to have success as a starter at the big league level, but maybe they put him in the 'pen and he can stick there. I thought this was one of the better picks of this draft." (For what it's worth, Keith Law weighed in that McFarland is an "Org guy. Not a prospect." So Law was likely tempering expectations, unless, of course, you believe that he hates the Orioles.)

So far, Badler seems wise in retrospect, because McFarland has pitched relatively well out of the O's bullpen in what is his first work as a major league pitcher. In 56 innings, McFarland has a 4.18 ERA despite being a little unlucky (.322 BABIP is a bit higher than MLB average of .293). His 53.9% ground ball rate also trails only Jim Johnson (56.5%) and Zach Britton (54%) on the O's pitching staff.

McFarland's numbers are very close to what the average MLB pitcher has done this season. Take a look:

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/FB
MLB Avg	3.89	7.53	3.00	0.97	10.6%
McFarland	4.18	7.71	3.05	0.80	10.4%

McFarland, now 24, has not been fantastic, but there is certainly something to be said for being an average pitcher in the majors. It's a whole lot better than pitching like Freddy Garcia did in his 10 starts earlier this season.

So McFarland is relatively young, seems to be a decent option pitching multiple innings out of the bullpen, and is under team control through the 2018 season. He isn't eligible for arbitration until 2016. Plus, he's proficient in getting opposing batters to hit the ball on the ground, which is a great skill when J.J. Hardy and Manny Machado are covering the left side of the infield. The Orioles also didn't have to surrender any players to obtain McFarland (just a little bit of money) -- which is normally better than building a bullpen by sending away a player with any kind of upside.

Still, as Callis mentions above, McFarland has a limited ceiling. He relies mostly on his sinker and slider, and his fastball velocity only sits around 88-89. In a June Baltimore Sports and Life piece suggesting that McFarland should stay in the bullpen, Tucker Blair noted that McFarland is not very good when facing batters a second time through the lineup. As a reliever, the first time through a lineup McFarland has held batters to a .250/.310/.378 line. And the second time through? .300/.341/.475. (McFarland also started one game and didn't perform well overall, lasting 2.2 innings and allowing three runs and seven hits on June 28 against the Yankees.) Granted, that's an even smaller sample size for someone who's pitching in the majors for the first time.

Strangely enough, McFarland, a 6'3 lefty, hasn't done well against left-handed hitters. 

In 24 IP vs. lefties: .338 wOBA

In 32 IP vs. righties: .303 wOBA

Those may be two things to keep an eye on. If McFarland struggles to retire batters a second time through the lineup, it'll be difficult for him to ever pitch in the rotation. And if he's not retiring lefties consistently -- especially if right-handed batters start hitting him better -- he also loses a chunk of value.

Regardless, McFarland obviously has some flaws. So does Ryan Flaherty, who the Orioles selected in the 2011 Rule 5 draft. But both have been useful at times this season, and they were both added for very little. There are worse ways to round out a roster.

Seeking Value in the Rule 5 Draft (2012)

The 2011 Rule 5 draft was arguably a success as the Orioles carried utility man Ryan Flaherty the entire season after selecting him from the Chicago Cubs organization.  Before the season, Baseball America placed him as the 7th best prospect in the Orioles' system with his entire worth placed on his bat playing in the infield with hopes that his defense would become adequate.  Neither proved incredibly useful to the Orioles.  His final line over 167 plate appearances was 216/258/359, a .270 wOBA, and -0.7 UZR (with negative value coming from third and corner outfield positions).  Perhaps what most fans will remember though was his home run against the Yankees in the American League Division Series.

Flaherty will enter into his second Spring Training with the Orioles.  He no longer will be competing with Robert Andino for second base after the Andino-Robinson deal went down.  However, he will be competing with Luis Alexi Casilla, a little-bit-too-green Jonathan Schoop, an on-the bubble Omar Quintanilla, an unlikely Brian Roberts, and whoever is picked up (spring invite, free agent, or trade).  Dan Duquette has mentioned in a number of articles after the Casilla wire pickup that he was prepared to go into Spring Training with the second base position as is.  That does not mean he will rest on his laurels though.  Second base is still quite a position of need in addition to left field and everyone could use another pitcher.

Skimming through the Rule 5 eligible list, I found five players of interest:


Ryan Buchter, LHP
26 years old
Atlanta Braves

		IP	K/9	B/9	GB%	SIERA
Mississippi	AA	41.1	10.9	4.1	36	3.00
Gwinnett	AAA	8	5.6	19.1	42	7.90

The Braves are Buchter's third organization.  He was originally drafted by the Nationals, but was dealt to the Cubs for Matt Avery who has not been in professional ball after the 2009 season.  In 2011, he was on the move again when the Braves traded for his services in exchange for Rodrigo Lopez.  It is obviously by his travels that he has attributes that are valued, but he has never appeared on any major publications top prospect rankings for any organization he has been a part of.  So what can do he so well?  He strikes batters out.  What does he not do well?  He walks everyone.  He does this with a low to mid 90s four seamer that he mixes with a good cutter (the supposed anathema in the current Orioles regime).  Being a lefty with a decent strikeout rate, he likely is worth a flyer for someone in Spring Training.  The Os are in need, or want, for a lefty in the pen, so he might be an option.


Braulio Lara, LHP
24 years old
Tampa Rays

		IP	K/9	B/9	GB%	SIERA
Charlotte	A+	112	6.59	4.66	42	4.67

As mentioned by Baseball America, Lara is a player organizations can dream on, but who likely provides very little value in the near term.  The hope is that his low to mid 90s fastball and simply focusing on his inconsistent curveball as a reliever could bring out near term value.  The Rays have been keeping him as a starting pitcher, but his struggles may have reached the point where from this point forward they see what he can do as a reliever.  Lara might have the best chance for sticking with an organization that does not have playoff hopes.  The Orioles may view their roster spots as too precious to hold onto a not-ready-for-prime-time arm.


Jonathan Galvez, 2B/LF
22 years old
San Diego Padres

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
San Antonio	AA	345	.295	.366	.432	111

This is Galvez' second year exposed to the Rule 5 draft.  He profiles as a bat first second baseman.  He has modest power for a second baseman and had a AA league average walk rate.  It is hard to see how Galvez is a better player right now than Ryan Flaherty, but maybe the Orioles' or some other's team scouts see something they like.  The Orioles could take a flyer and check him out for the entirety of Spring Training before having to send him back if he proves to be unworthy of an active roster slot.

Jeremy Hazelbaker, LF/CF
25 years old
Boston Red Sox

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Portland	AA	484	0.273	0.338	0.476	113

Hazelbaker has a lot of athleticism and shows plus-plus speed with a good head for the basepaths.  He has the tools to be an excellent fielder, but he has issues with proper route running and a slow first step.  He showed above average power last season in AA with average on base performance.  I'd rate him as a less impressive commodity than Trayvon Robinson, but, again, he may well be worth a flyer.  Hazelbaker has good enough defense, raw power, and uses his speed more effectively.  If he can provide similar defensive value as Robinson, his ceiling may be a bit higher as he could have a bat capable for left field.  He should be able to find someone willing to see whether they can fit him on their team.


Marc Krauss, LF
25 years old
Houston Astros

		PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Mobile	AA	429	0.281	0.415	0.5	129
Corpus Christi	AA	35	0.414	0.514	1	211
OKC	AAA	66	0.123	0.203	0.123	42

In 2009, Nick Faleris and I were discussing our plans for the shadow draft we were running in concert with the Orioles' draft.  I was a strong proponent of Marc Krauss while Nick was pushing for Todd Glaesmann (who was my target for the third round).  In the end, we chose Glaesmann over Krauss.  Krauss, with his poor body type and questionable bat speed, has found success and shown power at each step up the ladder.  It appears though after coming over in the Chris Johnson trade that the talent starved Astros do not see a need to put Krauss on the 40 man roster.  Krauss' poor defense and bad arm limit him to left field with his ceiling being somewhat like Luke Scott, but with a batting profile that is someone who should be limited against Major League right handed pitchers at this point in his career.  The Diamondbacks did try him out over 30 games at first base, but if the Orioles have one thing in abundance it is a number of guys who can play first base and left field.