Expanded Roster: Zach Britton, Closer?

Article was written as part of our Expanded Roster series.  If you wish to contribute, write to us at Camden Depot.

Zach Britton, Closer?
by Patrick Holden  
 

Entering Spring Training, Zach Britton was thought of as a fringe 25-man roster player who would likely make the team in part because he is out of options. Britton was also mentioned as a trade candidate. Fast-forward to the All-Star break and Britton, who had 2 relief appearances vs. 46 starts entering the season, has pitched effectively enough to be anointed the Orioles closer, picking up 15 saves in 17 opportunities since inheriting the role from Tommy Hunter in mid-May.

Britton has become a 2-pitch pitcher, abandoning his changeup, throwing only a fastball (sinker) and a slider. In fact, Britton has become primarily a one-pitch pitcher, throwing his fastball 92.6% of the time this season, after throwing it 70.6%, 68.4%, and 67.8% the last 3 years. The other 7.4% of his pitcher have been sliders, well below his career rate of 14.7%. So, what exactly is different about Britton's fastball this year?  His average fastball velocity this season is up 2.7 MPH from last season to 94.1.  Britton is pitching in the strike zone more often this year while also missing more bats. Britton has a 12.3% swinging-strike rate this year, well above his career mark of 8.2%. Britton is hitting the strike zone with 52% of his pitches this season after posting rates of 44.3%, 38.7%, and 44.9% in the three previous seasons. Britton has also improved upon his contact %, which has fallen to 73.5% after posting a career-high 84.1% last season. While these numbers are not fastball-specific, the heavy reliance on, as well as improved velocity of, his fastball make it not-so-crazy to conclude that much of the improvements in these numbers are due to his fastball.

Some may point to Britton's BABIP as certain to regress to the mean. While Britton will likely see his current BABIP of .224 jump up a bit, (as well as his his ERA regress towards his FIP and xFIP, which are also both drastically improved) there is reason to believe that the changes in Britton, from his days as a .320+ BABIP and upper 4’s ERA and FIP starter, are real. He is inducing more ground balls (78% vs. 52.8%, 60.8%, and 58% his previous three seasons) and is allowing less line drives (12.2% vs. 18.8%, 16.0%, and 19.6%). Britton’s GB% is almost certain to regress a bit, but that doesn’t mean that a drastic improvement, albeit lesser, can’t be sustained. Britton's HR/FB rate currently sits at 16.7%, 64% above his career average of 10.7%. But thanks to a GB/FB rate sitting at 8.00, over 3.5 times better than his career mark, Britton has seen his HR/9 rate drop to 0.37 this season after never being below 0.90 since his rookie year. 

One point worth mentioning is that the Orioles are rumored to be in the market for a bullpen upgrade. Baltimore made sense as a landing spot for Huston Street or Joakim Soria before they were each traded. While moving Britton out of the closer role may seem crazy given his success thus far, it would save the Orioles millions of dollars when Britton becomes arbitration eligible after the 2015 season. Soria and Street, for example, both have relatively reasonable club options of $7 million for next season. If the Orioles are able to move Britton to a set-up role, either now or for next season, through at least the 2015 season, his arbitration years (certainly at least his first arbitration year) will be much more affordable. If Britton remains in the closer role moving forward, especially if he continue to have success anywhere near his current level, his arbitration figure will likely cause the club to deal him at some point, much like they did with Jim Johnson this past off-season. In short, trading for a closer would not only would bolster the Orioles bullpen, but it would also likely lengthen Britton’s tenure with the Orioles, something the team should be interested in given his success as a reliever thus far.

Britton has made significant changes in his approach since being moved to the bullpen. Many of these changes were likely made possible because of the move to the bullpen. Ironically, his success as a closer is the very reason the Orioles should consider trading for a closer to bridge the gap at least until Britton’s arbitration years. Either way, this changed role has produced results that, while they might not be sustainable at their current level, find Britton rightfully planted in the back end of the Orioles bullpen moving forward.

Stats current as of 7/18/14. All stats pulled from Fangraphs.

Expanded Roster: In Defense of Ryan Flaherty

Article was written as part of our Expanded Roster series.  If you wish to contribute, write to us at Camden Depot.

In Defense of Ryan Flaherty
by Patrick Holden

For some reason, many Orioles fans seem to save a special kind of vitriol for utility infielder Ryan Flaherty, particularly his offensive contributions. I haven’t done any sort of official sampling on the subject, but whether it’s conversations with friends, comments on Twitter, callers on talk radio etc., the general tone on Flaherty that I hear is one that is both negative and frustrated. How and why are expectations of a utility infielder so high that, regardless of his performance, many fans find him to be one of the most frustrating players on the roster? On top of that, when taking a look at Flaherty’s performance, it may not be just the expectations that are out of whack, but the evaluation of his performance as well. While a more detailed look at Flaherty would reveal a more nuanced evaluation of his production, even a glance at his offensive numbers shows that he’s plenty adequate at his job and undeserving of much of the frustration sent his way.

Over the last calendar year, the Orioles have 15 players who have stepped to the plate 120 times or more. Of those 15 players, Flaherty’s wOBA of .313 ranks 8^th (general sample-size disclaimer applies, but he’s not an everyday player, so relative sample-size issues are generally unavoidable). The stats below only include a player’s performance for the Orioles within the past calendar year. 

Player	PA	wOBA	wRC+
Steve Pearce	257	.412	163
Nelson Cruz	397	.393	150
Adam Jones	691	.353	122
Chris Davis	619	.339	113
Delmon Young	123	.335	111
Matt Wieters	354	.321	100
Brian Roberts	241	.318	97
Ryan Flaherty	238	.313	95
J.J. Hardy	614	.312	94
Nick Markakis	724	.310	93
Nate McLouth	247	.303	88
Manny Machado	549	.301	87
Johnathon Schoop	303	.266	63
David Lough	133	.263	61
Caleb Joseph	125	.258	57

Flaherty also ranks 7^th in OBP and 8^th in SLG during the same time period.  His 1.0 fWAR ranks 8^th, ahead of the likes of Nick Markakis (0.7), as well the beloved former Oriole Nate McLouth (0.5).

Any questioning of whether Flaherty deserves a spot on the roster has to include a look at what other resources the Orioles have within the organization that could replace him. The two players on the 40-man roster, who could potentially fill a utility role, are Steve Lombardozzi and Jemile Weeks. Lombardozzi saw time with the O’s earlier this season while Manny Machado recovered from his off-season knee surgery. In the second half of last season with the Nationals, in 113 PA, Lombardozzi posted a .327 wOBA (107 wRC+). However, this is well above his career wOBA of .281 (74 wRC+) in 829 PA, as well as above the .278 wOBA (71 wRC+) he posted in the 74 PA’s his has seen with the Orioles so far this season. 

Furthermore, Lombardozzi has struggled in Norfolk this year, with a .273 wOBA (61 wRC+) in 207 PA, well below his AAA career wOBA of .340 (109 wRC+) he had posted in 325 PA’s prior to this year. 

Weeks’ ability to fill a utility infielder role is questionable, given that 2B is the only infield position he has played in the majors.  In 363 minor league games, Weeks has played just 36 games at an infield position other than 2B (all at SS), with 13 of them coming this year. Weeks has not seen significant PA’s in the majors since the 2012 season with the Athletics. After posting a .333 wOBA (111 wRC+) in 437 PA’s in 2011, Weeks’ production dropped to a .276 wOBA (74 wRC+) in 511 PA’s in 2012. Weeks has been fairly productive at AAA in both 2013 and 2014. In 614 PA’s last year, Weeks had a wOBA of .347 (105 wRC+). In 2014, Weeks has a .367 wOBA (125 wRC+) for Norfolk in 209 PA’s. While this compares favorably to Flaherty’s minor league numbers, it is important to note that Flaherty hasn’t seen significant minor league PA’s since his age 24 season, while Weeks is currently 27. And again, Weeks has never been asked or shown the ability to play a utility infield role in the field. 

 

Here is a look at how Flaherty compares to a few utility-type infielders over the past calendar year.

Player	PA	wOBA	wRC+
Ryan Flaherty	238	.313	95
Munenori Kawasaki	173	.308	90
Logan Forsythe	331	.274	74
Omar Quintanilla	225	.238	49

I realize selecting these 3 players may seem random (it kind of was) or even as if I was cherry-picking. My point wasn’t to select players that Flaherty has out produced, but only to show that he’s perfectly adequate, relative to his counterparts.  However, regardless of what utility infielder-type players you compare Flaherty to over the last calendar year, it remains apparent that the negative narrative on Flaherty’s offensive effectiveness in his role is off-base.  

Ryan Flaherty is more than adequate as a utility infielder for the Orioles. While his versatility and defense are generally not questioned, his bat is often attacked for being inadequate. Even when assuming that the bat of a utility player is worth so much frustration, Flaherty’s bat is perfectly adequate when compared to his teammates (considering his role) and other internal options for the Orioles, as well as his counterparts around the league.

Expanded Roster: Starting Pitching Rentals

 Article was written as part of our Expanded Roster series.  If you wish to contribute, write to us at Camden Depot.

Starting Pitching Rentals
by Ryan Solonche

All of the players featured in the table below have contracts set to expire at the end of the year. While the Orioles could certainly target players like Bud Norris in 2013 who offered multiple years of team control, I’m working with the rental assumption. While I was very tempted to just throw in David Price and Max Scherzer to this table, they would likely command Gausman and Bundy + mid-tier prospect/PTBNL. While those pitchers would likely have the greatest impact down the stretch; it is extremely unlikely this club would part ways with both prospects for a 3 month rental.

Click to enlarge and consult while reading.

Before we analyze the players, I want to briefly explain why I chose the given stats and what they mean for analyzing players specifically for the Orioles.

FIP is an excellent way of measuring how well a pitcher is executing that which is in their control. It takes away BABIP while emphasizing a pitchers ability to minimize HR’s, BB/HBP, and adds weight to K’s. This is especially useful for analyzing the current year a pitcher is having.

I included K/BB because I believe the Orioles should put a premium on good K/BB guys as they are currently second to last in the AL with only the White Sox (who have allowed the most walks) sporting a worse ratio. Getting outs and limiting base-runners is a simple concept, so it should be unsurprising that the AL teams that are above average in K/BB are also above average in FIP.

GB% rate – while not as powerful as FIP or ERA+ -- is important for this team specifically. If you have one of the best infields in the majors, you should be maximizing it’s effectiveness through GB%. See: the dominance that is a Zach Britton sinker.

ERA+ is a better indicator than simply ERA, in my opinion, as it adjusts to ballpark factor and no two parks are the same. 100 is considered average.

In analyzing the given 2015 FA class, I saw 2 distinct routes I think the Orioles can go for SP’s that are actually attainable (sorry for dashing dreams of Price). Also a quick note on Hochevar: while I understand he is done for the year and doesn’t factor into the rental model, he is a player the Orioles have scouted in the past and will have a strange evaluation after he took a huge step forward in the KC bullpen, only to go down for the year in his final contract year. Hochevar is someone in this upcoming free agent class that I think this club will keep an eye on.

Mid/High-tier Starters (with some projectability) – Johnny Cueto – Justin Masterson

Low/Mid-tier Veterans (at or exceeding contract value) – Ryan Vogelsong – Dan Haren – Jorge De La Rosa

With Cincinnati currently sitting 7.5 GB of Milwaukee, there is every reason to think they will field calls for Cueto; who in my opinion, offers the Orioles the highest reward. Don’t let his 7-5 record fool you, he is in the midst of a special year at age 28 and this may just be his prime. In addition to having the best current FIP, ERA+, and WHIP of any player on the list, he also has 3 CG’s and 2 SO’s in 16 starts. He instantly becomes the best pitcher on your staff and represents the kind of high-end impact you need to get out of a starter who will only (likely) be with you for 3 months. It’s also very important to note that the Reds just shelled out over 100 million for Homer Bailey; and it’s fair to speculate that they would prefer signing the younger Mat Latos long term as opposed to Cueto. The Reds might be forced to salvage what they can for Cueto this year, knowing that their future payroll lies in Bailey and Latos. Even with that being said, he will also have the biggest price tag of any of the players on the list; and if a bidding war ensues or the Reds try to aggressively shop him: the corps four of Gausman, Bundy, Harvey, and Rodriguez will certainly be broken up. The question is: how do other club’s evaluate the O’s top SP prospects? If the Reds covet a young LHP with Rodriguez’ upside or place a high ceiling on Harvey, it’s not unreasonable to think you can add Cueto without leveraging Bundy or Gausman. The Reds are also currently averaging – as of publication – 3.95Runs/G. That would be their worst mark since 1989. If the O’s view players like Pearce, Delmon, Clevenger (or even prospects with hitting upside like Chance Sisco or Christian Walker), as being available in part of a package, then it’s possible a deal could take shape without sending Gausman or Bundy to the NL Central.

Justin Masterson is just the kind of SP that you would think the Orioles would be happy to send out in Camden Yards with his very impressive career GB% of 56.6 – tops in next years free agent class. However, he has been dealing with knee soreness all year and actually has a worse K/BB average than the O’s current total. To date, the Indians are sitting 8 games back of the Tigers in the loss column and are losing ground to a young and talented Royals team. The Indians will probably be reluctant sellers at the deadline. It is also worth mentioning that Masterson’s splits vary quite a bit from Progessive Field to away games. He has allowed 57 more runs on the road in about 200 less ABs. In addition he holds an unfriendly .301 BA in Camden Yards, but with a .370 BABIP against a powerful lineup. One reason I would target Masterson is because of Cleveland’s impressively atrocious defense. They’re not just dead last in the AL, there’s no other team close to their level of incompetence. They have the worst team fielding % at .976 and the worst defensive runs saved, according to Baseball Info Solutions, at -51 runs compared to league average. For perspective, the Orioles are 3^rd in the AL at +16. If you can steer the negotiations away from Bundy and Gausman and towards improving the middle of their defense, perhaps Masterson can be acquired at a reasonable cost.

Apart from the two aforementioned players, both under 30 years of age, the 2015 free agent crop has a decidedly more veteran feel, and a few of them are having pretty productive campaigns below the radar.

Ryan Vogelsong would be a solid addition in the middle/back of our rotation. He is a veteran pitcher with pretty good numbers down the stretch and especially in the post-season. He is quietly putting together an impressive first half after a down 2013. He is currently exceeding career averages in key categories like WHIP and K/BB. Yet, the complication that arises with trying to trade with teams like San Francisco is that they’re not broke, and may see nothing to fix. However, Tyler Colvin has not been the answer in LF and they’re thin at 1B behind Morse (unless of course they’re sticking to that all year to intentionally give Posey some days off behind the plate). Steve Pearce instantly comes to mind as an ideal player for the Giants to covet headed towards the stretch. He has exceeded any and all expectations this year with the bat and can fill multiple defensive needs for the Giants; and even looking further ahead, could have added value for an NL club with interleague and potentially playoff games versus the AL still to come. Taken a step further, if we look at WAR calculated into contract value – per fangraphs.com – we get a $4.1m evaluation for Vogelsong this year and a $10.9m evaluation for Pearce. The Orioles could potentially upgrade their back-end with a veteran presence and Championship rings added to a young staff, and maybe even add a mid-tier prospect.

Jorge De La Rosa is a tougher candidate to assess. Colorado rewarded his 34-24 record through 2008-10 with a 4yr/$42.5m contract. We know the Orioles looked at him during this negotiation period, so it’s fair to assume he’s a player that could be on their radar. After a good start in 2011 – where he pitched his only career CG – he tore his UCL in his elbow and was shut down for Tommy John surgery. 2012 was a complete wash for De La Rosa and in the first 2 years of his contract: he pitched a total of 69.2 innings. He came back and answered skeptics in a big way in 2013 by throwing 167.2 innings – the second most in his career – and exceeded career numbers in WHIP, BB/9, HR/9, FIP, and ERA+. Simply put, last year was the second best season in his eleven year career. Despite having the highest current FIP of any guy on the list, De La Rosa is not pitching too dissimilarly from last year. That is except for one huge area: HR’s. After a career best 7.7% HR/FB ratio in 2013, the numbers immediately regressed back to the mean as he is currently pitching to a 14.9% HR/FB ratio and his career average is somewhere in the middle at %11.3 HR/FB. He also is suffering from very drastic splits in terms of RH batters and LH batters. If we use FIP and xFIP (which places the average HR/FB ratio at 10.5%) we can get a sense of what we’d get with his current rates and with the adjusted average. Versus LH his FIP is 2.61 – xFIP is 2.96 – and against RH his FIP is 5.53 – xFIP is 4.64. If De La Rosa’s HR/FB rates stay consistent, he is a huge liability against RH-heavy lineups. If they come down, De La Rosa could be a savvy acquisition. With his age and contract value serving as a limitation for Colorado’s bargaining leverage, he can probably be attained without putting any of the top SP prospects on the block.

And rounding out the analysis is Dan Haren. At first glance he appears to be making amends for maybe his worst ever season in Washington in 2013. His 4.67 ERA that year is down to 3.83 so far for the Dodgers and he is second on the list in terms of K/BB. However, there are a few things that concern me with Haren. Of particular importance is his HR/9 rate going back the last 3 seasons. Before 2012 he had never pitched worse than 1.25 HR/9. He pitched 7 consecutive seasons of 216 IP or more with 3 of those seasons having under 1 HR/9. That’s very impressive considering the workload. In the last 3 seasons that HR/9 rate has climbed to 1.43, 1.49, and 1.49 respectively. That’s over 400 innings of sample size that suggests: this is who he is now. I think it’s also important to note that 6 of his 16 starts have come against Arizona and San Diego, the two bottom teams in the NL West. In those 6 starts he is 4-1. Against everyone else he is 3-3. In his 4 interleague starts he was right around average with an sOPS+ of 104 with 100 considered average. sOPS+ makes a pitcher’s performance relative to the league they are facing and how hitters in that league normally perform: useful for analyzing how NL pitchers may fair in the AL or vice versa. However, he also has a pretty low .242 BABIP against the AL, and while we cannot forecast “luck”, that number implies that a negative pop may occur if he saw extended time in the AL East as the number would likely normalize with more IP. Haren may actually have the best total pedigree of anyone on this list, but there’s a reason he has been on 3 teams in 3 years: his velocity has dropped and he’s had to rely more on his cutter and off-speed offerings, something that plays better in the NL West than AL East, in my opinion. However, he’s probably pretty expendable on a staff that includes two Cy Young winners in Kershaw and Greinke, a guy who has pitched a no hitter this year in Beckett, and the 9-3 Hyu-Jin Ryu. Similar to a potential deal for Vogelsong, I think the Orioles could improve the back end of their staff, add proven veteran experience on and off the mound for a young staff; and likely be able to pull it off without sending any of your top SP prospects to L.A.

In the end, all this analysis hangs in the balance of the standings come late July. As the standings become more clear teams will start to get a picture of how much leverage they have, who is really available, and what is the cost of doing business. One thing is for sure though, every GM remembers those 3 months Sabathia wore a Brewer’s jersey.