Off Season Managerial Candidates

The calls for Dave Trembley's retire have softened just a bit after the Orioles victory yesterday, which should be tempered as much as the overall record. There really is not much of what Trembley has done that can be considered his fault for the Orioles current state. Similarly, the players have not shown to be listless or turned their backs on Trembley. He seems very well liked and the players do listen to him. That said, fans still like to see a good execution when their team fails and the Orioles have been failing a lot.

Last week, we looked at in season opportunity to replace Trembley. This week, we will lost at potential off season solutions.


Davey Johnson - Senior Adviser - Washington Nationals

Davey Johnson is someone who Orioles fans long for in that he was at the helm for the O's last winning season. The rocky breakup with Angelos is something any Oriole fan can still recount blow by blow. Johnson's name was one of the first to be mentioned when Perlozzo was fired several years ago. For unknown reasons, he was dropped from the running and the team focused on Joe Giraldi. That did not work out and MacPhail decided to keep with Trembley. Now, Johnson would be staring at age 68 next year, which is rather old for a manager. He has not managed in the Major Leagues since 2000, but has been very much involved in Team USA and the WBC. He would not be able to ride out the rest of 2010 as he has a contract with the Nationals. Some think that contract as a Senior Adviser is merely a holding maneuver for Johnson until current Nats manager Jim Riggleman inevitably fails, allowing Johnson to takes the reigns. That being said, if available, Johnson probably stands a decent chance to be rehired by the Orioles.

Tom Kelly - Special Assistant to GM - Minnesota Twins

Kelly was one of MacPhail's big hirings when he joined the Twins organizations. Kelly lasted his entire term as GM. Under Terry Ryan, Kelly was sort of like the GM's personal cross checker for internal minor leaguers. He worked part-time as a restricted evaluator. I am assuming that under Bill Smith, the same arrangement has been made. Since MacPhail's hiring, Kelly has repeatedly been asked about any potential openings within the Orioles organization, but he has routinely responded that he enjoys his semi-retirement and not having to travel as much as he used to. Based on the information we have, it seems unlikely he would now be interested in managing again.

Joey Cora - Bench Coach - Chicago White Sox

Cora was another coach that was linked to MacPhail when he took over the Orioles' GM position. After retirement as a player, he was groomed in the Mets minor league system until being promoted to the big leagues by Ozzie Guillen in 2003 as a third base coach. He was then promoted to being the bench coach in 2006. On several occaisions, Cora has served as the ChiSox's interim manager. He has also logged time as manager in Venezuela during the off season. His managerial perspective is somewhat of an unknown as Guillen's personality and perspective overwhelms the day to day operation of the team.



Bob Melvin - Scout - New York Mets

Melvin was part of the Why Not? team with the Orioles and played a total of three years in Baltimore. He spent several seasons as a coach in the Diamondbacks system. His MLB managerial career began with a two year stint in Seattle that was uneven with his first season winning 93 games and his second season with 99 loses. He was immediately hired after being let go by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the wake of the Wally Backman fiasco. Melvin led the Diamondbacks to 90 wins and a pennant in 2007, but lost in the NLCS. That year he was awarded the Sporting News and MLB National League Manager of the Year awards. He was fired form the position in 2009 after 29 games. Melvin's handling of a squad is considered a bit frantic. He will often tinker with the lineup and the bullpen to get the results he wants. To many, the results he gets from his tinkering have about the same effect on winning as a fan at home wearing his lucky shirt. This behavior looks genius when the team is winning and desperate when it is not. He is rather well regarded though and is on many GMs' short lists for any opening.

Tony Pena - Bench Coach - New York Yankees

Pena has early success during his tenure in Kansas City as head coach, winning Manger of the Year honors in 2003 with a young team. He is considered a strict disciplinarian with young players and gets a lot out of them. Of course, such a style often will get old without results. He also has a reputation for being a coach who burns out arms and somewhat unfriendly to more recent trends in managerial strategy. He was in the running for the Yankees job after Torre left, but lost out to Girardi. Pena stayed on, remaining as the bench coach. By all indications, he wants to get back to managing a team.

Alan Trammell - Bench Coach - Chicago Cubs

Trammell is perhaps the most underrated SS of all time. He is also largely given too much blame for the Tigers' woeful 2003-2005 time. After winning 5 out of their last 6 in 2003, his Tigers avoiding the embarrassment of finishing with fewer wins than the '62 Mets, Trammell was fired and offered a role in the Tigers front office. Trammell declined, wanting to get back into the saddle. He signed on as bench coach for the Cubs in hopes of restoring that dream and remains there. His teams consisted of young pitching rotations and was thought not to be too taxing on their arms (although almost every single Tigers pitcher from that time has come down with arm problems and have suffered incredibly underwhelming careers). It would be surprising if he did not wind up as the Cubs manager or somewhere else within the next five years.

Harold Baines - 1st base coach - Chicago White Sox

Baines would be a fan favorite. He has been a part of Guillien's coaching staff since the World Series 2005 win. His name rarely comes up for manager openings, but he could be another Eddie Murray or Rick Dempsey interview. His soft spoken style may not work well with the media or fan base. His skills as a manager are largely unknown and untested.

Rich Dauer - 3rd base coach - Colorado Rockies

Dauer would be another legacy interview. He too has been rather unassuming, but is well regarded in Denver.

Don Mattingly - Hitting Coach - LA Dodgers

Mattingly lost out to Girardi and has been thought to be biding his time in LA until he can find a coaching slot. It has been suggested that in the next year or two Torre will retire and Mattingly will take over. Having been burned by the new Steinbrenner/Cashman arrangement, he may have second thoughts trusting that the current Dodger leadership will remain with their owners' divorce proceedings. Baltimore may be interested in trying to hire him on as an offensive oriented manager with playoff experience, but Mr. Baseball probably wait for a better team to open up. Certainly, a better team if he was going to the AL East and having to face his Yankees.

Dave Martinez - Bench Coach - Tampa Bay Rays

Martinez and MacPhail know each other well from their Cubs years'. Martinez is often mentioned as a peripheral candidate for several teams, which may merely be due to the fact he has been associated with many teams over his career and has been thought of as being a manager type. He would be another untested commodity.

John Farrell - Pitching Coach - Boston Red Sox

Farrell would be the person I would be most interested in coming to the Orioles as a coach. He cut his teeth with the Indians as the Director of Player Development for the Cleveland Indians from 2001 to 2006. Not incredibly gifted in a Joe Jordan role in my opinion, but he certainly was competent. For the past three years he has been the pitching coach for the Red Sox. Coming up through player development, coaching young pitchers (i.e. Jon Lester), and being a part of a highly competitive and intense baseball environment (Boston); I think Farrell could be an excellent option as a manager. I think he would prove to be a very useful voice and give good feedback to our stable of young pitchers. His contract included a very strict retention clause and it was thought to prevent him being hired by the Indians this past off season. This upcoming off season, the contract is over and Farrell should be on of the most eagerly sought after rookie managers.

If Trembley Goes . . . Who can replace him in-season?

It has been a rough start to the Orioles' season. As someone who is attuned to numbers, projections, and scouting reports . . . I am wincing a lot, but am generally unmoved in my assessment of the team long-term. The team is a 70s win team and what has happened has largely not been a product of anything Dave Trembley has or has not done. Still, some fans have been calling for the dugout to be cleared and new coaches to take their places.

Ken Rosenthal wrote a column the other day expressing his thoughts. Many think Trembley will be replaced in-season, but there really are not many candidates available and there is a great risk that any selection may do well and then prevent a wider search in the off season. Any new hire, then, will probably be someone who has experience and is someone whom the Orioles would be fine giving a multi-year contract.

An internal hire is also possible. One way would be to promote a current coach in the dugout to manager. Guys like Shelby and Samuel have some experience managing in the minors, but have been largely looked over at the Majors level. The new hire last offseason, Datz, has never been considered for a managerial position and is thought to be a bit bare bones in how he handles players. Alan Dunn might be the only other option and he seems like an afterthought here. The Orioles are just not very well set up with ex-coaches as positional coaches or "consultants" as other teams are.

The other way of doing an "internal" hire would be to hire an Orioles personality. Names on this short list would be guys like Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken, and Rick Dempsey.

After the jump, I'll go a bit more over the likely possibility of available talent for an in-season hire.



Eric Wedge
561-573 (.495) regular season; 6-5 postseason

Wedge got his start quickly making his way through the minors as a manager. In 2002, he was awarded Baseball America's and the Sporting News' Minor League Manager of the Year. That offseason he was hired to replace Charlie Manuel as manager of the Cleveland Indians. The team rebounded on strong play of guys like Sizemore, Sabathia, Lee, Hafner, and Carmona. In 2007, the Indians got edged out in 7 games to the Red Sox in the ALCS. Two lackluster seasons later and Wedge got the ax.

Wedge gas said he fully intends to stay out of the game in 2010 and reenter in 2011. I imagine though that a chance to audition for the Orioles position might be enticing to him. His strengths have largely been attributed to keeping the clubhouse loose and focused each day as well as being somewhat of an instructor. He is criticized for his in game play. Wedge does not like to play "small ball," yet seemed to religiously adhere to pitchers having certain roles. I'm not sure how much these two impressions hold water, but I have heard them enough to consider them to be the perception of his managerial style.

My bet is that Wedge stays retired until the off season when he reenters MLB as a bench coach for someone like the Rangers.

Jerry Narron
291-341 (.460) regular season

Narron has had two tours of duty. A two season span with the Rangers that sunk him when all of Hicks' toys could not be turned into a winner. He then put in two admirable years with the horribly mismanaged Reds before being fired mid-season. It seems that his hiring as Reds manager was perhaps an accident as he performed well enough that the interim tag had to be removed (which might sound familiar to O's fans). I remember him as a rather uninspiring manager who seemed somewhat detached from the players. Far more suited to the bench coach role than the managerial one. To be honest I don't really have a good read on it. As well as I look, it seems he has been out of the game for about two years. He would certainly be chomping at the bit to get back in the bigs. He used to coach Orioles minor leagues in the early 90s, but I imagine all of those guys are gone and we do not have a Reds presence in the front office anymore.

My bet is that if Narron finds his way back into baseball it will be as a bench or bullpen coach. I severely doubt he will be with the Orioles. I would think they would choose someone who at least has some sort of upside or post-season experience.

Phil Garner
903-974 (.481) regular season; 13-13 postseason

Garner is Rosenthal's choice as Dave Trembley's successor. He certainly does fit the mold in that he has had success with two Astros teams and he is a well known coach having been managing with 15 years of experience. He is currently unattached to any team. Also helping his cause is that he is an old school manager who highly values small ball and traditional strategy. I would personally find that to be a fault, but if MacPhail is still anything like he was with Chicago . . . Garner would seem to fit in with what he was. The only knock from MacPhail's perspective is that Garner might be seen by him as an NL-style coach.

What is perhaps slightly puzzling to me is that Garner has never really had much success. He coasted in the worst divisions in baseball and still only managed four winning records during his 15 year tenure. His success was mainly a product of Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemes, and Andy Pettite. Nothing else. True, he has always had to work with horrible GMs. It is hard to tell if he was a bad manager or if he just had lackluster teams. A question does beg to be answered though: why do awful GMs hire and retain Phil Garner? I think his style is somewhat too brash with his players and that he subscribes to outdated philosophies on baseball. He is not known to work well with young players and is way too invested in veterans, which has been a similar M.O. of Garner's GMs.

My bet is that if the Orioles are willing to sign a multi-year deal, Garner is on the short list. Wedge might be slightly more preferable as he could be pushed around by the organization a little easier.

Buck Showalter
882-853 (.514)

Showalter is another coached who is immediately recognized by fans and is considered a bit more of a hothead than Phil Garner. Rightly or wrongly, he is thought to be strong on fundamentals and brings the most out of his players. Some attribute the World Series wins in the year following his ousting in New York and Arizona as evidence that he is a great manager. For the Yankees teams of the early 90s, you really have to give some of that credit to their development system and player acquisition. With the Diamondbacks, it was really the act of bankrupting the team to sign marquis free agents that got them going. In Texas, Showalter could not improve the Rangers mess and did not much better than Narron.

As an analyst for ESPN, Showalter most likely has a clause to allow him to join a ballclub as manager. He would also most likely require a multiyear contract. As opposed to Garner, who I think is itching to get back into the game, I think Showalter would only consider going to the right situation. He has no qualms about going to a bad team as evidenced by the Dback and Ranger opportunities, but I do question whether he wants to face the uphill battle the Rays, BoSox, and Yanks present. I think he might be hard pressed to find another job.

Art Howe
1129-1137 (.498) regular season; 6-9 playoffs

Howe was last seen in the majors as Ron Washington's bench coach in 2007 and 2008 after spending a year with the Phillies as a third base coach. He is getting up there in age (63 years old) and is thought of much more as a caretaker with a traditional perspective. He sounds exactly like an Andy MacPhail kind of guy. He is low key and rather unimpressive in how he carries himself. He had a mediocre stint with the Astros, and excellent run that ended poorly between him and GM Billy Beane with the A's, and a disastrous run with the Mets. His success with the A's was largely a product of the Big Three. He also did very little in terms of in game strategy as that was dictated to him by the front office. Howe looked very much to the Mets position where he would have more of a free hand. It did not go well and it has been a bit of a black mark for him.

Howe could be had with a single season contract. He seems eager to get back into baseball and could look over the team as an interim. He may be OK with being reassessed at the end of the season. He seems like a convenient pick and he does have experience which will probably be a selling point.

The Unlikely Bunch:

Cal Ripken Jr.
This would be for the old school fans and for the casual fans with elephant memories. Ripken has no experience coaching at this level, but should not be too much of an issue. More so, I think he might be used to getting his way. It could potentially be a Michael Jordan - Wizards sort of situation.

Eddie Murray
This would also be for the fans. Murray has had plenty experience coaching, but has been looked over time and time again as manager material. There are some concerns about how well he could encourage chemistry and work public relations.

Rick Dempsey
Dempsey's post playing day dream appears to be managing the Orioles. He has lobbied hard for interviews every offseason when the manager is let go. He has never been successful and either does not wish to go elsewhere or is largely considered not a managerial prospect. He has plenty of experience with managing in the minors and coaching in the majors. Dempsey is a media guy, so he has that down.

Jim Palmer
Palmer often gets mentioned in the backwater of discussions for an Orioles manager. It seems unlikely that he would care much for it. The only prospect that would be enticing to him is that I severely doubt he would want to coach the team after the season concluded which would give MacPhail the Cheney/Biden option of not having to carry someone over to manager slot the following season. As we all know though, Palmer hates to travel.

Mike Flanagan
As long as there was not much of a falling out and as long as Flanny's guys were not responsible for all of the leaks at the beginning of MacPhail's tenure, this move might actually have more traction than you might think at first. He is an Angelos darling and he does seem to have good personal skills. MacPhail might bristle at another GM-type in the chain of command.

Gary Allenson
This would be a Trembley style move. To promote someone who has been a good teacher and solid manager in the minors. I doubt the O's would look to double up on this. I think he best profiles in the minors whereas a guy like Brad Komminsk could be someone to keep an eye on and promote to the MLB level as a coach in order to groom him as a manager.

Alan Dunn, Juan Samuel, Jeff Datz
All would be fine. Dunn probably has the best shot as both Samuel and Datz are not really known for good personal skills.