Trade Retrospective: Wade Miley vs. Ariel Miranda

When Wade Miley was acquired at the non-waiver trade deadline in 2016 for Ariel Miranda, there was legitimate reason to believe the Orioles had not dramatically improved their pitching situation. Miley had not posted an ERA under 4.34 since 2013 and was mired in, frankly, a poor season in Seattle. Miranda, on the other hand, had progressed quickly through the Orioles' farm system after coming over from the Cuban leagues and had put up solid, if unspectacular, numbers at every level. As we know, Miley has been (to be charitable) a low grade tire fire as an Oriole while Miranda has quietly been pretty decent in Seattle, despite a certain blogger arguing that Miley had figured things out in April and May.

It seems to be yet another ill-fated deadline move made by General Manager Dan Duquette, whose history at the non-waiver deadline has been checkered during his time in Baltimore. He infamously traded Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop for Scott Feldman, dealt away Zach Davies (who has become a relatively decent back-end starter himself) for two months of Gerardo Parra posting a .671 OPS, and got 20 lights-out innings from Andrew Miller in exchange for top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez. This is... not amazing, to say the least. His overall best deal was probably getting Bud Norris for LJ Hoes and Josh Hader in 2013, though Hader is off to a decent start to his career in Milwaukee and Norris had an epic, $8 million meltdown in 2015 after a solid 2014. 

But was this move as bad as it seems? If you go by straight results, the answer is an unequivocal "yes, good lord, yes." Miranda has put up a 4.16 ERA to go along with a 1.145 WHIP for the Mariners, while Miley has countered with a ghastly 5.79 ERA and 1.733 WHIP during his time in Baltimore. If you could do a straight-up swap of those numbers, it wouldn't be hard to imagine that the Orioles would feel significantly better about their 4th starter slot right about now.

Of course, a straight swap is unrealistic for any number of reasons, but most notably that Baltimore and Seattle are not exactly the same in terms of being run environments. Historically, Camden Yards has been a hitter's haven (say that five times fast) while Safeco Field has been more forgiving to pitchers. This may explain the differences in xFIP between the two: Miley has put up an acceptable 4.66 xFIP this year, with Miranda posting a 5.33. 

xFIP grants pitchers a league average home run rate, arguing that year-to-year fluctuations are essentially noise, and in Miley's case this may be accurate. Before coming to Baltimore, Miley was pretty good at limiting home runs. This year, however, Miley has one of the worst HR/9 marks in baseball at 1.43. So, we've solved it! Miley went to Baltimore and gives up a ton of homers, while Miranda got to go to a better park and gives up fewer homers. Done and done.

While that's a convenient narrative, it turns out to perhaps not be so simple. Miranda has somehow been worse than Miley this season, with a shocking 1.73 HR/9 rate. So how is Miranda even above water this season? Well, for one thing, he does a good job of limiting hard contact and having pretty good command. He gives up homers, to be sure, but he doesn't put a ton of baserunners on which limits the overall damage. Miley, on the other hand, is more like Oprah: "you have a walk, and you have a walk!" Wade is walking an almost unfathomable 5.4 hitters per game, which is both far and away the highest in baseball this year and the worst mark of his career. So, Miley lets guys get on base all the time while also allowing lots of homers. That is not a recipe for success. On the other hand, Miley has a better than league average strikeout rate while Miranda prefers to pitch to contact.

So, did Duquette screw up? Yes, but not necessarily because Miranda is actually a much better pitcher than Miley. I think the numbers indicate that, while Miley has better peripheral stats without question, it may be the case that those stats do not tell the whole story. Miranda is, ironically, a guy that seems to have the ability to outperform his peripherals while Miley does not. Miranda would actually fit in perfectly with the O's overall philosophy of "we literally do not care about ERA estimators," while Miley's stat sheet on Fangraphs indicates that he is an okay pitcher getting unlucky. Watching him pitch this year, however, throws about 500 gallons of cold water on that theory. Additionally, Miley consistently underperforms his peripherals and, really, does nothing particularly well other than generating ground balls. So, it's not that Miranda is so much better, it's that Miley is bad, has been bad for a while, and has gotten worse since the Orioles traded for him.

In the case of Miley vs. Miranda, we find in favor of (drum roll)....getting better pitchers! But seriously, folks, those pining for the Miranda who got away probably wouldn't be much happier if he was still here and Miley was not, though he also doesn't cost $10 million. Miranda probably wouldn't be a sub-4.50 ERA guy in Baltimore, but there's also nothing that necessarily indicates he'd be a plus-5.50 guy, either. Miley, unfortunately, is. That's reason enough to say that this deal isn't something Duquette should lead with in his next job interview.

Arrivals and Departures: Miley and Pearce Coming to Town

During the Dan Duquette era, July and August are a time of player arrivals.  The Orioles' barren farm system tends to restrict the club to finding second and third tier additions with the lone exception of 2014 when elite relief arms were cheaper.  2016 was not like 2014, it was more like other seasons where a B or C level prospect was dispensed for a potentially useful player.  The two coming in this year were LHSP Wade Miley and UTL Steve Pearce.

Matt Perez and Matt Kremnitzer addressed the Miley addition yesterday.  My only addition would be to note that Miley has had a rather up and down season, but has strung together a series of adequate games.  I believe Ryan Romano will dive into that for us on MASN.  Miley certainly is not a pitcher you expect great things from,  His main issue this year has been leaving the ball up a few times and getting it punished.  The Orioles tend to emphasize pitching low in the zone and rising with high four seamers, so maybe Miley can escape the home run bug or at limit it to bases empty scenarios.  One would think most teams disagree as the cost was rather low: an older prospect who one day hopes to be Wade Miley.

The second piece the Orioles added was a replacement of their earlier target: Melvin Upton, Jr.  The Orioles were looking for a bat to deliver more production against left handed starters, which their end of season schedule is likely to be chock full of.  The replacement is a name common to Orioles fans and was perhaps the player who strongly pushed the Orioles into a 2014 runaway season: Steve Pearce.

Pearce is a right handed hitter who, when on, is the living embodiment of a professional hitter and, when off, is the guy you want to shuttle back to Norfolk.  2015 saw the guy who should be in Norfolk, but who still inspired many of the writers here to advocate for him to be re-signed during our October blueprint series.  Pearce wanted immensely to return to Baltimore and basically put himself in stasis until it was painfully obvious that the Orioles had zero interest in him.  He decided to go home on a one year deal at 4.75 MM and, at age 33, be the oldest player on the Rays by two years.

Although, in all too typical fashion, Pearce has experienced some injuries this season, he has also rediscovered his 2014 glory.  He is slashing 389/484/741 (227 wRC+) against southpaws and a more modest 280/351/440 (118 wRC+) against right handers.  Although he played often in the outfield for Baltimore, Pearce's time in Tampa has been spent at first base, second based, designated hitter, and a splash at third base.  In Pearce, the Orioles appear to have found all of their needs answered except for someone who can backup Adam Jones.  All in all, he fits.

The cost for Pearce may at first glance not appear to be much, but it was more than Ariel Miranda, the pitcher exchanged for Wade Miley.  The Orioles gave the Rays, arguably, their only true catcher in the system: Jonah Heim.  Heim is known as a defensive first catcher whose bat has lagged, but who is still young enough for him to figure out enough offensively.  Defensively, he is a gem.  Good footwork, short arm path, short pop times, gets out in front of the plate with ease, solid receiving skills, and decent blocking.  These are important skills to have as a catcher because history has shown that catchers who lack defensive adequacy almost never acquire it.  It is a rule that a few organizations take as gospel in that they never draft defense-suspect catchers.

Heim is not an elite prospect.  He profiles more as a backup catcher and is one who I am fairly confident will reach the majors and put in at least a few years.  I have great doubt that Chance Sisco can figure out what he needs to do behind the plate and have similar concerns about Alex Murphy.  Sisco, though, has enough of a bat that he might be able to hit enough for second base and has the athleticism for it.  Though, like Schoop, he appears to lack the reflexes and agility to be a good defensive second baseman.  Anyway, the point being that Heim was actually unique in the Orioles system: a likely MLBer who actually could catch.  Sure, getting someone like Pearce will cost something of value, but we should be aware that just because a number of people are playing catcher in this organization that it does not mean the club has actual depth at catcher.

In the end, Heim is probably worth the one win that Pearce will be worth.  Pearce shores up the bench and gives a solid starting option against left handers.  He makes for a more compelling platoon partner with Hyun Soo Kim, and those extra runs will help make up for problems with the starting rotation that Wade Miley may not be able to fix.

If Miley Is Going To Be Successful, He'll Need To Throw More Balls

The Orioles, in need of starting pitching help, have just made a trade for Wade Miley.  The prospect that they traded, Ariel Miranda, isn’t considered a particularly good prospect. Rather, this trade seems to be about cash. The Orioles are on the hook for Miley for the remainder of 2016 and owe Miley $9M for 2017. If Miley is decent, then $9 million will be a bargain. But if Miley does poorly, then $9M is a lot of cash to throw away. The Orioles will have a considerable amount of cash invested in Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Yovani Gallardo next year and will be in trouble if none of the three can produce. (Data for this post is from ESPN Stats and Information and Brooks Baseball.)

Miley has had a poor 2016 season, with a 4.98 ERA and 4.75 FIP, but had been relatively decent the past three years with a FIP in the 3.90 range. This season, his strikeout and walk rates have been similar to his three year average as has his BABIP, but batters have just been crushing his pitches and hitting them out of the park as he’s allowed a 16% HR/FB rate. If that’s bad luck, then he’s due for some positive regression. Otherwise, it’s bad for a pitcher to be home run prone in Camden Yards.

So far in 2016, out of 93 qualified starters, Miley ranks 65th in wOBA in at-bats that end in either a walk, strikeout, or hit by pitch; 79th in at-bats where the pitch put into play is thrown in the strike zone; and 26th when a pitch put into play isn’t thrown in the strike zone. In contrast, from 2013-2015, out of 201 qualified starters,  Miley ranks 122nd in wOBA in at-bats that end in either a walk, strikeout, or hit by pitch; 126th in at-bats where the pitch put into play is thrown in the strike zone; and 133rd when a pitch put into play isn’t thrown in the strike zone. Overall, he ranked 134th from 2013-2015 and 74th in 2016. The bottom line is that he’s always been a below average starter but has been even worse this year because batters are pounding his pitches that are thrown in the strike zone.

Against left handed batters, Miley primarily throws a fastball, followed by a slider, curveball, and changeup. Miley started throwing the curveball against lefties in 2015 and prior to that relied on a fastball and slider combo to combat left handed batters. The problem was that he wanted to use his slider as an out pitch, but it resulted in a swinging strike less than 20% of the time in 2013-2014 and now less than 15% of the time in 2015-2016. In each year from 2013-2016, batters were more likely to put a slider into play than swing and miss. As a result, the slider really wasn’t good enough to be the out pitch every pitcher needs. His curveball suffers from the same problem against left handed batters. It improved significantly in 2016, but it still only results in a swinging strike 13% of the time. He rarely uses his changeup against left handed batters because the pitch is terribly ineffective.

Against right handed batters, Miley primarily uses a fastball, changeup, slider, and curve with heavy use of the slider in two strike counts. The problem is that his slider has digressed since 2013-2014. In 2013-2014, Miley had a 20% swinging strike rate with the pitch while opposing batters only put 16% of sliders into play. In 2015-2016, Miley has a 17% swinging strike rate with the pitch while opposing batters put 19% of the pitch into play. Meanwhile, his curveball is largely thrown in the strike zone and generates single digit swinging-strike rates.  His changeup is effective against right handed batters as it generates a 30% called ball rate, a 33% strike rate (15.4% swinging strikes), and a 24% in play rate.

Going forward, if Miley wants to be successful he’ll need to change his strategy. Opposing left handed batters struggle against his curveball when they put the pitch into play, with only a .256 wOBA in 2016. So, it makes sense for Miley to use a fastball, slider, and curveball against left handed batters with the knowledge that he’ll need to use his slider to strike batters out. But he also needs to start helping himself. Opposing left-handed batters have chased 44.6% of sliders outside of the strike zone in 2016, but he’s thrown 49.5% of sliders inside the strike zone. With two strikes, he’s thrown 46% of sliders inside the strike zone. It’s hard to get swinging strikes when a pitch is in the strike zone. If he’s going to be successful, he needs to be able to throw his slider largely outside of the strike zone and still get batters to swing. Otherwise, he’s going to continue to have below average strikeout rates against left handed batters and will struggle to be serviceable.

Against right-handed batters, Miley needs to scrap the curveball. He isn’t able to use the pitch to get swinging strikes, it results in significantly more balls than strikes and right-handed batters crush the pitch when they put it into play. Opposing right-handed batters have a .464/.464/.857 line against it in 2016 and have had an OPS at or above 1.000 against the pitch each year from 2013-2016. Relying on a fastball, changeup, and slider combo will help him significantly. Miley does a good job throwing his slider out of the strike zone, and thereby is able to use it to get swinging strikes. However, Miley may want to consider throwing his changeup out of the strike zone more often so he can use that pitch in two strike counts also.

All in all, I don’t think that Miley has good enough stuff to be an above-average starter. His fastball isn’t particularly good as a starter and he doesn’t really have good secondary stuff. I’d imagine he’s far more likely to see success in the pen than as a starter. As such, I'm not really a fan of the trade. The Orioles really need Miley to at least be mediocre as a starter and I don't think he's that good. I suspect that he turns into another Gallardo or Jimenez.

On the other hand, he was reasonably successful from 2012-2015 while throwing around 200 innings a season. If he can give the Orioles 70 average innings this year, and another 200 average innings next year, then the Orioles will be happy with his performance and it will be worth the price they paid. He’s done it before, so it stands to reason he can do it again.

But if he wants to improve his chances of doing so, he’s going to need to show that he can throw more balls. He needs to try something different to get more strikeouts because what's he doing now isn't going to work.

Ridiculous Trade Idea: How The Orioles Could Acquire Chris Sale

We all know the Orioles need another decent starting pitcher. But what they could really use is an excellent starting pitcher. Considering the O's farm system, however, they don't have the necessary pieces to acquire a true ace (if one were truly available). Well, let's go a little outside the box, then.

The Washington Nationals are desperate for a solid late-game relief arm. Hey, the Orioles have some of those (and one who is really, really good in Zach Britton)! And if you believe everything that's passed along from apparently plugged-in MLB reporters (hint: not always a great idea), the Nationals are willing to trade prized starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito to accomplish the task:

Sources who have spoken with #Nats believe they would trade Lucas Giolito to #Yankees for Andrew Miller, straight up.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 29, 2016

Apparently the Yankees are not willing to do this. But, you know, perhaps the Orioles should. The Orioles are trying to win now, and dominant relief arms are extremely important. But the O's should also be in the hunt for any kind of starting rotation help. And picking up one of the best young starters in the minors while also not trading away a young, everyday talent like Jonathan Schoop is enticing.

Picking up Giolito but losing Britton, though, isn't a win-now move. While it definitely helps in the long run, losing Britton still hurts. And even though it would make sense to keep Giolito and hope he transforms into an ace, why not use him to trade for someone who's already an ace? That ace would be Chris Sale.

As they should, the White Sox are asking for a ridiculous amount in return for Sale. If they were somehow able to land Giolito, the O's would be able to put together a competitive package for the... let's say, eccentric lefty. By offering Giolito and then two or three of the team's top prospects -- Chance Sisco, Cody Sedlock, Jomar Reyes, Ryan Mountcastle, etc. -- the O's would have a shot to land one of the very best starters in the game.

By doing so, Sale would headline a rotation that immediately doesn't make you shake your head in frustration:

Chris Sale
Chris Tillman
Kevin Gausman
Yovani Gallardo
Dylan Bundy

Regardless of what you think of Bundy's usage, that's a very intriguing and talented crop of pitchers (minus Gallardo). And the best thing about acquiring Sale, besides him being outstanding, is that he's under team control through 2019 for extremely reasonable terms: $12M in 2017, $12.5M option for 2018, and $13.5M club option for 2019. I mean, that's Ubaldo Jimenez money!

Will this actually happen? Of course not. The O's aren't going to trade Britton in the middle of a pennant race, though it will make sense to explore a Britton trade during the offseason. Still, you could kinda, sorta imagine it happening. And it's at least interesting, right?

Why The Orioles Should Trade For Nolasco

The Orioles rotation is not having a very good year. Despite the Orioles having a 41-30 record, the rotation is only 23-23 with a 4.93 ERA (4th worst in the majors). More advanced statistics treat them more favorably, as they have only the 8th lowest FIP and somehow rank 18th in fWAR. While Chris Tillman is having an excellent year, the only other starters with an ERA under 5.00 are Kevin Gausman with a 0-5 record and a 4.37 ERA and Tyler Wilson with a 3-5 record and a 4.57 ERA. An upgrade probably wouldn’t hurt for the rotation.

The challenge is that the Orioles have already spent significant resources building their rotation. They signed two free agent starters, Jimenez and Gallardo, which are earning significant cash. Likewise, Tillman is arbitration-eligible and is also making a decent sum. The Orioles may not be willing to splurge on another starting pitching asset, especially given how poorly Jimenez and Gallardo have performed. In addition, there is little quality projected to be on the market this deadline. Despite the fact that there are nine teams at least eight games below .500, there is minimal quality pitching to be found. The Orioles need to decide whether they want to deplete their few remaining sources on a gamble.

Except, there’s one pitcher, Ricky Nolasco, that will probably be available for cheap. It’s for good reason, this is his first year out of the last three where his ERA has been below 5.00, and he’s flirting with the 5.00 mark this year also. In addition, he’ll cost a pro-rated portion of $12M this year, he’s under contract for $12M in 2017 and he’s got a shot of triggering a vesting option for $13M in 2018. For this post, the data is from ESPN Stats and Information.

On first glance, he looks like a pretty awful rotation piece. However, a closer look suggests he’s a viable option for the rotation. The first hint that he may have some potential is the fact that he has a 4.95 ERA but a 3.69 FIP. The second is that he pitches for a team that plays poor defense. The Twins defense ranks 27th from 2013-2016 and has been worth -114 runs. Is bad defense causing him problems?

This year, a quick glimpse of his stats shows that has BABIP is .336. But, more importantly, his BABIP in 2015 was .392 and in 2014 was .354. It seems fair to propose that his defense is hurting him. In addition, his walk rate went from 8.1% in 2015 to 4.7% in 2016. This improvement has come mostly against left handed batters, as he had an 11.1% walk rate vs them in 2015 and just a 4% rate against them this year. His walk rate against righties is well-within career norms. The table below shows his overall performance.

Batters seem to have hit him hard on pitches put into play, regardless of whether the pitches have been in the strike zone or not. Batters have a .403 wOBA against pitches hit in the strike zone and a .390 wOBA (.400/.394/.500) against pitches hit outside the strike zone this year. Batters usually don’t do well when they swing at pitches out of the strike zone, and it’s not like they’re hammering home runs against him. Out of the 97 qualified pitchers, that’s the 10th worst result, although Nationals’ aces Strasburg and Scherzer are allowing a .404 and .406 wOBA against those types of pitches this year. This problem can probably be attributed to bad luck or bad defense. He ranks 32nd out of 97 against pitches put into play that are in the strike zone. This isn’t good, but does suggest that we can expect a slight bit of improvement from him. The table below shows his performance in these situations.

In addition, he’s having dreadful luck with men on base. When the bases are empty, batters have a .327 wOBA against him with a .296 BABIP, which is a bit lower than his results in previous years. With one runner on base, opposing batters have a .347 wOBA against him with a .397 BABIP. These results are slightly better than they’ve been in past years. With two runners on base, batters have a .410 wOBA against him with a .370 BABIP. In addition, Nolasco only has a 10.3% K% and a 15.4% BB%. This is far worse than his results in other seasons with the exception of 2015. With bases loaded, opposing batters have a .440 wOBA against him (.571/.444/.714) and he has gotten 2 non-sacrifice outs in play, 1 strikeout, 2 sacrifice flies, 3 singles and a double. Simply put, batters are killing him in the clutch. Nolasco historically does struggle more with runners on base than without runners on base, but it seems that he’s gotten some bad breaks to start this season.

As discussed previously, one area where Nolasco has improved is walks against lefties. The reason for this is because he’s throwing fewer balls. 35.2% of his pitches against lefties have been called balls in 2016, compared to 43% in 2015 and roughly 38% from 2012-2014. Meanwhile, his called strike rate is around career norms and his swinging strike, fouled balls and balls put into play right are above his averages. As a result, he has allowed significantly fewer walks. See the chart below.

Part of the reason for this is that he figured out how to throw his splitter again. Last year, he couldn’t throw his splitter for a strike and batters simply didn’t swing at the pitch. Nearly three-fourths of his splitters last year against lefties resulted in a ball and only 12% resulted in either a called or swinging strike. This year, 40% of his splitters result in a called ball while 22% result in a strike. He’s fixed his splitter and that’s helped him be successful. See the chart below.

In addition, he’s gotten lucky with the curve and slider. He’s throwing the same amount in the zone as he has in previous year, but lefty batters are swinging at 56.6% of them as opposed to roughly 40-45% in previous years. Therefore 27.5% of these pitches have been called balls while 31% have been either called or swinging strikes. This either means that his curve/slider have become significantly better at fooling batters or that Nolasco has gotten lucky.

My opinion is that Nolasco probably isn’t as good as his FIP suggests, but I think he’s gotten more bad luck than good luck. Going forward, I’d expect him to have an ERA in the low 4s. I also think that being behind a good defense will help him significantly. He’s under contract for only one more year after this one, so trading for him wouldn’t be a huge risk.

I don’t think it would take so much to acquire him. He does have a limited no-trade clause, but the three teams on it are the Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays. The Orioles probably wouldn’t be willing to take on Nolasco’s entire salary, so the first piece in a deal would have to be either Jimenez or Gallardo. The Orioles seem to be more down on Jimenez than Gallardo, so it makes sense to try to build the deal around Jimenez.

The first thing the Orioles would need to include is enough cash to pay the difference between the two players’ salaries. This will only be a few million, but every little bit counts. In addition, the Orioles will likely need to add a few prospects. Nolasco hasn’t had good results for the past few years, so they won’t be expecting much in return. This is the quintessential case of buying low on a player. I think that offering Mancini and Scott would be enough to get a deal done. However, the Twins would likely prefer one of Bundy, Wright or Wilson in a deal as opposed to Mancini being as they already have Mauer and Park. I would think that the Twins would need to add another piece, or take on some more cash to get one of those pitchers.

This trade would be a risk, but perhaps not overly much. If Nolasco doesn’t pan out, well Jimenez is already in the bullpen. Furthermore, Mancini isn’t likely to be able to hit well enough to become a DH while Scott is at best a reliever. These may be some of the Orioles’ best prospects, but they have limited value. And if the Orioles are going to make a deal, something like this is the best they can hope to pull off.