2011 First Round Talents in MLB Draft: Composite Rankings (May 14, 2011)

I had meant to send this out a few days ago, but the Blogspot issues prevented that and I then just forgot.  Remembering now to do so, here is the updated composite rankings of the top 33 prospects in this year's draft.  I am showing 33 prospects because that is how many selections are in the first round this year.  These rankings are composites from three well respected sources: Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, and DiamondScape Scouting's Nick Faleris (who also writes for Camden Depot).  Baseball America's contribution comes from their mid-season evaluations on April 12th.  Keith Law's was published on May 4th.  Nick Faleris' was from May 12th.  The bar represents the average ranking with the whisker illustrating the standard deviation.  I have been asked instead to do a median with two whiskers showing the highest and lowest ranking for each player.  However, I am averse to doing that because as far as I know, some of the rankings are proprietary and a reasonably inquisitive mind could figure out who ranked who where.

There seems to be growing speculation that Anthony Rendon, Garrit Cole, and Danny Hultzen will be the first three taken in some order.  The wild card of those three to drop would be Cole.  That would be the ideal situation for the Orioles.  In that scenario, Rendon would go first with the Mariners going after a bat and the Diamondbacks taking Hultzen.  I doubt that happens.  Assuming those three do go first, it has been said that the Orioles are looking for college pitchers of which there are many.  Jed Bradley and Trevor Bauer are the names mentioned most with Dylan Bundy, Bobby Bundy's brother, as the dark horse.  I would personally prefer Sonny Gray or Bubba Starling.

Collegiate Diamonds by the Numbers: Pac10, Big 12, Conference USA, and Big East

Here are links to the first two columns:
Introduction and ACC
SEC

This post will roll through four different conferences as very few players met this criteria.  The Pac10 in fact are not represented.  This is not to say there are no prospects in the Pac10.  It says that merely following the criteria is set forth would not identify anyone in this grouping.  I want to remind you that I am using adjusted numbers from College Baseball Splits and not raw numbers.  This post will highlight players who match these criteria in the SEC.

Criteria
Plate Discipline - Walk Rate (>15%) and BB:K ratio (>1.50)
Contact Rate - Batting Average (>.300)
Power - ISO (>.180)

citation

Big 12

Just a Freshman

Erich Weiss, 2B/3B, Texas
397/529/616; 20.2% walk rate, 1.68 BB:K, .219 ISO

It does not appear Erich Weiss was drafted last year, but he has broken out as a freshman for the Longhorns.  In high school, Weiss saw time at SS, 2B, and C.  In college, he has been handed the job at the hot corner.  So far he has performed well as a freshman and will have a couple more years before he is draft eligible (2013).  At 6'3" and 180, Weiss is athletic, but I can imagine him adding on another 15-20 pounds as he matures.

Conference USA


Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
364/570/573; 32%, 3.01 BB:K, .209 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: Best 3B, Best Overall

I'll let Nick Faleris tell you about him (click here for a full scouting report):

The story this spring has been a sore shoulder for the five-tool third baseman, which has kept him in the DH role for most of the season.  Perhaps stemming from the sore shoulder, Rendon's power numbers have fallen off drastically, with his isolated power dropping from a whopping .407 to a merely impressive .178.  Barring troublesome medical reports come draft time, there is little concern that this will have a long term effect on Rendon's game.  Provide the shoulder checks-out, he is easily the top position player in the draft class, arguably the top player overall, and on par with the likes of Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg in terms of future potential and draft time skill set.  Rendon is the rare five-tool talent with game changing ability in each category (he was clocked at 4.2 seconds home-to-first a number of times last year, during the USA CNT Trials and twice this spring), and an intricate feel for the game on defense, in the batters box and on the basepaths.  He has a chance to move quickly once he signs and could be a perennial All-Star at the Major League level. 

Big East

Joe Panik, MIF, St. John's
397/513/609; 17% walk rate, 2.29 BB:K, .212 ISO
Diamond Scape Scouting: 3rd 2B, 2nd SS, 44th overall (pre-season)

Panik was largely overlooked by most of the national talent writers with Faleris being the only one to put him in a top 50.  However, he is not an unknown.  Scouting the Sally reviewed Panik last month and wrote:

• Compact build; Looked closer to 6-foot than the 6-2 he is listed as
• Well developed through hips and shoulders; Room for additional growth?
• Above average speed; Pulled multiple 4.15 times from home-to-first
• Short, compact stroke; Drops bat head on the baseball
• Gap hitter; Present swing mechanics tailor-made for spraying line drives
• Patient hitter; Took a number of borderline pitches
• Questionable power projection; Should push double-digits, but not much more

It would be highly doubtful that Panik is available when the Orioles pick in the second round.

Close, but not quite

David Chester, 1B, Pittsburgh
293/422/527; 16.2% walk rate, 1.61 BB:K, .234 ISO
Not ranked by DSS, Keith Law, or Baseball America

Although not ranked by Nick Faleris, Chester was on Nick's Big East Second Team ratings before the season began.  He was .007 points shy of batting average to qualify for this list.  For a big guy (6'5" 270 lbs), he does a good job making contact with power and earning walks.  Large batters anecdotally seem like a risk as the larger the batter, the larger the strike zone he must work with.  As a Senior, Chester does not have any leverage.  He will likely be taken as an easy slot or below slot signing after past the first five rounds.

Passing Thoughts

The members of this club I have put together are relatively few, but the criteria I have set forth does appear to be hitting on certain ball players who are widely accepted as good college prospects.  This criteria does not replace eyes and stop watches, but it is remarkable how it is finding players who are known and others that are on the fringe.

Updated 2011 1st Rd Draft Rankings: Keith Law, Baseball America, Nick Faleris

Baseball America put out their mid-season revision of the 2011 amateur draft rankings (April 12th).  There has not, in general, been a lot of movement in the lists, which are composite rankings also using Keith Law's (March 22nd) and Nick Faleris' (March 27th).  Baseball America also only brought in two new players within the the top 50 universe of players collected so far from each of the three ranking source over the course of this season.  Those two were 49th and 50th in their most current update.  The BA update has resulted in only one individual being tossed out of the top 33 (Nimmo) and a new one finding his place (Stephenson).

Click on the image below to make the graph a bit larger and more legible.



The top four have stayed the same in order with Rendon, Cole, Gray, and Starling.  Behind them, players have moved up and down a few spots.  It is actually quite remarkable how similar these lists are becoming.  One of the reasons why I chose these three sources was because they are famous for being independent in their rankings.  Other sources tend to be massaged in concert with new lists hitting the net.

For the Orioles, the growing perspective is that the team is focused on Anthony Rendon and then a college pitcher.  It would be shocking to see Rendon fall to the Orioles at the four spot (1:4), so it will likely be a college pitcher.  Danny Hultzen of Virginia and Jed Bradley of Georgia Tech would be the two most obvious candidates.  I have been told by some fans that they hope Matthew Purke is the selection, but I figure his motion, injury history, and that he rejected a 6MM deal from the Yankees Rangers (edit: 4/17/11 JS I did not remember this correctly) his first time around might make things a bit uncomfortable in figuring out their draft budget and ensuring they select a high quality prospect.

At Camden Depot, I think the way we lean right now would be Sonny Gray (Jon Shepherd) and perhaps Bubba Starling (Nick Faleris).  I am assuming Nick's pick here.  However, there is a lot of talent bunched up in the 3-8 range.  I would be pleased with a good number of players including Hultzen and Bradley.  I would also be pleased with someone who I think is a sure Major Leaguer, but without a superstar potential (Jackie Bradley Jr).  Anyway, I imagine we will see at least another four future updates of this list.

2011 First Round Talents in MLB Draft: Composite Rankings (March 27, 2011)

Each year, I keep track of some of the major publications and evaluators to determine a consensus amateur ranking.  This should give you an idea where in general these evaluation sources agree and where they disagree.  For the first edition, I have included Keith Law, Nick Faleris, and Baseball America.  Keith Law is an analyst for ESPN and does his own scouting.  Nick Faleris operates Diamondscape Scouting and contributes to an MLB organization.  He as well does his own scouting.  As I understand Baseball America's process, their list is more a compilation of discussions with scouts.

The following chart list the top 33 rankings, which is the same number of selections in the first round this year.  The name rank from 33rd to 1st.  In order words, players thought to be of higher quality are found lower down on the list.  The extension from the bar is the standard deviation of the three sources, which indicates level of agreement.  If a source does not rank a specific prospect in their top 50, I automatically gave them a value of 75 from that source.  Only two players in the top 33 had to have ranks of 75th assigned to them (Taylor Guerrieri from Baseball America, Kolton Wong from Keith Law).

Finally, the sources date as follows Baseball America (February 3rd), Keith Law (March 22nd), and Nick Faleris (March 27th).

Click on the graph to make it more legible.

Based on these rankings, Bubba Starling is the fourth ranked player at 5.67.  The following is a list of players ranked above Starling as well as those who are with one standard deviation of 5.67.  Players are listed (with mean +/- SD) from 76 players mentioned among all three lists over the course of this draft season:

1. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice University 1.33 +/- 0.58
2. Garrit Cole, RHP, UCLA 1.67 +/- 0.58
3. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt 4.33 +/- 1.15
4. Bubba Starling, OF, Gardner-Edgerton HS (KS) 5.67 +/- 3.79
5. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas 7.33 +/- 3.21
6. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Virginia 7.67 +/- 3.51
12. Matthew Purke, LHP, TCU 10.67 +/- 7.09
31. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, North Augusta HS (SC) 34.33 +/- 35.91

Both Matthew Purke and Taylor Guerrieri might fall off this list.  Based on reports, it sounds like more and more scouts are growing weary of Purke.  This downgrading is apparent in both Law's and Faleris' March rankings, but is not in Baseball America's February rankings.  Due to BA reacting to what the field tells them, they will be slightly slower in gauging value and a month old list will affect that even more.  I imagine a re-ranking from BA would result in Purke being in the 12-17 range with a much narrowing standard deviation.  Guerrieri would probably have the same fate.  If BA would re-rank their list, Guerrieri would probably fall within the top 50 and he would like find himself in the 20s with a standard deviation insufficient to make this list.

I should note that players not mentioned on that list would not be reaches.  Based on merely standard deviations, it would be safer to use a two standard deviation measure to indicate a "total universe" of considered selections.  Even then, it should not be used as a hard and fast rule.  Joe Ross (ranked 47th with the composite mean) would qualify for this list while Archie Bradley (ranked 9th) would not.  I'm not certain what a more solid rule would entail.