Draft Preview -- Final War Room Review

Well, the Draft is finally upon us. Here is a summary of where we stand for the First Annual Camden Depot Shadow Draft for the Orioles, as well as some recommended links to use while you follow the draft. Though most will likely follow on MLB.com, ESPN or various message boards, please feel free to comment below as the day progresses. To the extent there are questions and/or comments, I'll be responding.

Now, onto our War Room.

Camden Depot Shadow War Room

Our Draft Board for 1:4 has changed a bit. Word came out last night that Buster Posey is looking for $12mio. While we believe we should take the best talent available, we can't justify paying twice the price for Posey that we paid for Wieters. Accordingly, he has dropped to sixth on our board. As it currently stands, we rank the players for 1:4 as follows:

1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Tim Beckham
3. Brian Matusz
4. Justin Smoak
5. Aaron Crow
6. Buster Posey
7. Gordon Beckham

Our current projection is that Tampa will be selecting Tim Beckham at 1:1 Pittsburgh will opt for Pedro Alvarez and Kansas City will be choosing between Eric Hosmer and Justin Smoak (Hosmer the likely selection).

After 1:4 has been selected, we will start updating our top 5 for 2:4.


Links for the Draft

Here are some good links to info as you follow the Draft:

- Great discussion regarding the Orioles's draft at the Orioles Hangout Draft Board
- Baseball America's Top 200 Player Chart
- Baseball America's Draft Page (Most Content for Members Only)
- MLB.com Draft Coverage
- MLB-Draft.com gives a run down of their projected first 50 picks and some solid info on the players.

Draft coverage will officially start at 1:30 EST for us. Enjoy the links and please check back in to see who we select at 1:4!

Draft Preview -- Beyond 1:4 (Rounds 4-5 and Signability Fliers)

Continuing with our look at Round 2 through Round 5...

Round 4

Josh Romanski (SP) University of San Diego
6'0" / 185lbs / B-T (L/L)
Scouted: July 20, 2007 USA vs. Cuba ( Film)
4.00/1.11, 96.2 IP, 20 BB, 78 SO, .240 BAA

Romanski offers a nice balance of solid arsenal and good command, while not setting himself apart in either respect. He sits in the upper-90s with his fastball and gets good late movement away from right-handers. His curveball is a potential above-average pitch, and he mixes in a changeup and slider, as well. Like teammate Brian Matusz, Romanski is generally clean through his mechanics. One item that will likely be addressed at the pro level is his tendency to finish by falling-off to his glove-hand side. Though he was knocked around with Team USA last summer, he was impressive in the PanAm Games gold medal matchup with Cuba (the game scouted), appearing in relief and posting a line of 1.1 IP, 1 BB, 1 H, 2 SO, 0 ER. Romanski profiles anywhere from a back-of-the-rotation starter to a number 3, depending on who you talk to. He would be a relatively safe pick after round 3 and is a good bet to find a spot in a Major League rotation.

Chase Davidson (1B) Milton High School (Georgia)
6'5" / 222lbs / B-T (L/R)

Scouted: Film

.429 AVG / 1.071 SLG, 70 AB, 5 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR




Davidson has plus-power potential, though it hasn’t consistently manifested itself in games. At 6’5” and 216 pounds he is well on his way to filling out his Major League frame and is athletic enough for teams to try him at RF/LF. He has good bat speed, though his mechanics leave a fair amount of room for improvement – especially in his weight transfer. He'll need to improve his balance and avoid falling off and opening up his hips too early in order to realize his full potential as a future power hitter. He profiles as a #4 or #5 and presents good power upside to go along with a Major League average bat. He is a well below average runner, clocking in at 4.56 seconds to firstbase.

Lance Lynn (SP) University of Mississippi
6'5" / 250lbs / B-T (R/R)
Not Scouted
4.52/1.35, 89.2 IP, 110 SO, 31 BB, .251 BAA

Lynn does not have electric stuff, but he has been a consistent producer at Ole Miss. His arsenal is built around a low-90s fastball and a low-80s slider. Both his curveball and changeup pitch up because of his command, but project to be average offerings. Lynn isn’t a frontline starter, but should be a safe bet to be a solid workhorse at the back of a competitive rotation. In addition to solid numbers at Ole Miss, he was impressive last summer with Team USA, posting a line of 2-1, 1.80/0.84, 25 IP, 26 SO, 9 BB, .136 BAA.

David Adams (2B) University of Virginia

6'2" / 205lbs / B-T (R/R)
Scouted: March 29, 2008 vs. Virginia Tech (Film); May 25, 2008 vs. Miami (Film)
.286/.384/.411, 231 AB, 11 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR

Adams's down season has likely dropped him from a 2nd rounder (or possible 1st round or supplemental pick) to at least a 4th or 5th Rounder. After an impressive junior campaign, he saw his batting average fall over 100 points this season. He has gap-to-gap power and doesn't figure to hit many homeruns as a Major Leaguer. He has a professional approach at the plate that translated into successful campaigns his freshman and sophomore year at UVA, as well as in the Cape Cod Summer League (though some have expressed concerns that his swing will not play at the next level). Defensively, he profiles as an average 2B with above-average baseball instincts. His arm is probably not strong enough to play at 3B professionally, though he was recruited by UVA to follow in Ryan Zimmerman's footsteps. Adams is a moderate risk in the 4th or 5th round that could reap late 1st round dividends.

Anthony Capra (SP) Wichita State University
6'1" / 200lbs / B-T (L/L)
Scouted: Not Scouted
2.87/1.17, 75.1 IP, 87 SO, 30 BB, .212 BAA

In Capra's first season as a member of the Shockers's rotation, Capra dominated in route to a 9-0 record in 11 games started. The lefty sits in the 88-93 range with his fastball, which shows good boring action and late life. His changeup was arguably the best in the Missouri Valley Conference and rates as a plus-pitch that could miss Major League bats. There are conditioning concerns as Capra is a little heavy for his frame, but this should not affect his draft slotting. To be successful at the professional levels he will have to fine tune his curveball, which is inconsistent to be kind. He may be well-suited to scrap it and work on a splitter or a slider, which would play nicely off of his fastball and changeup.

Round 5

Cole St. Clair (SP) Rice University
6'5" / 225lbs / B-T (L/L)

Not Scouted

2.65/1.12, 54.1 IP, 60 SO, 16 BB, .230 BAA

Cole St. Clair is a first round talent that has struggled to regain his velocity following a weightlifting injury. Formerly sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, this year St. Clair was closer to the upper-80s, topping out at around 91. His curveball is an average pitch with above-average potential, though he has struggled with it as well since the injury. His command is above-average and, coupled with a deceptive delivery, has allowed him to continue to thrive in a challenging Conference USA. Provided St. Clair can find his velocity during the upcoming offseason, it's possible someone will end up with a first round arm between picks 100 and 200. Orioles fans might hope for an Arrieta Re-dux.

Brian Humphries (OF) Granite Hills High School (Calif.)
6'3" / 170lbs / B-T (L/R)
Not Scouted
.398 AVG /.602 SLG, 98 AB, 8 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR

Humphries was hot and cold throughout the summer circuit, leaving scouts uncertain as to his slotting for the 2008 Draft. After some impressive showing in Wood Bat leagues, and a noticeable physical maturing this past winter, Humphries entered the season as a mostly-projection player with impressive upside. The Pepperdine commit shows plus-speed and the potential to develop above-average power, while drawing mixed reviews in the outfield. Humphries has the frame and athleticism to warrant a Round 5 selection, even without a refined offensive game. There is enough here for an organization to work with, and Humphries periodic success with wood makes the pick a little easier to make.

Michael Tonkin (SP) Palmdale High School (Calif.)
6'6" / 192lbs / B-T (R/R)
Not Scouted
2.23/1.07, 67 IP, 97 SO, 11 BB

Tonkin has the size and velocity to throw in a Major League rotation. His fastball sits in the low- to mid-90s, with a boring 2-seamer and a straight 4-seamer. He shows good feel for his changeup and his sweeping curveball shows flashes of a potential fringe-above-average pitch. Like most prep pitchers, Tonkin will need to smooth out a lot of kinks with his motion, but his arsenal is a solid base upon which to build. He has the upside of a middle-of-the-rotation arm, and the size to project as a dependable workhorse. He is currently committed to Southern Cal.

Mark Sobolewski (3B) University of Miami
6'1" / 200lbs / B-T (R/R)
Scouted: May 24, 2008 vs. NC State (Film); May 25, 2008 vs. Virginia (Film)
.326/.393/.483, 230 AB, 13 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR

As an eligible sophomore, it may be difficult to sign Sobolewski as another year could vault him into the first round and perhaps the top 10. He has above-average power and clean compact swing. While he shows the ability to spray balls to all fields, he could stand to improve his approach a bit as most of his power comes when he pulls the ball. In the field, Sobolewski was inconsistent to say the least. The good news is that his struggles were primarily throwing issues and further had nothing to do with his footwork. He has a tendency to drop down and throw across his body, leading to throws that sailed on him from time to time. He has the hands, range and arm to stay at third base and perhaps perform at an above-average level. The Hurricane's clean-up hitter should garner plenty of attention on draft day, though it remains to be seen if a team will be able to pry him away. It wouldn't hurt if Miami were to win a title this year in Omaha.

Brandon Crawford (SS) UCLA
6'5" / 210lbs / B-T (L/R)

Scouted: March 1, 2008 vs. Bethune-Cookman (Film)
.302/.394/.491, 232 AB, 13 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR

One of the top middle infielders in the class coming into 2008, Crawford has suffered through a supremely disappointing season, striking out in just over 1 out of every 4 at bats. He has fringe-plus power but has not been able to develop it in games, primarily because of his high strikeout totals. One aspect of his game that has not fallen-off is his defense. He is athletic and has the range and arm to make each shortstop play in the manual. In addition to above-average defense and a plus arm, Crawford flashes fringe-above-average speed. If he can get his offensive game back on track, he could be a steal.

Some Signability Fliers for Rounds 6 and Up

Ryan Westmoreland (OF) Portsmouth High School (R.I.)

6'2" / 185lbs / B-T (L/R)

Not Scouted

.508 AVG / .902 SLG, 61 AB, 7 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR

Despite wishful thinking from Red Sox fans, rumors have circulated that Westmoreland is all but guaranteed to head to Vanderbilt, following in his mother's footsteps. Westmoreland features plus-speed and an above-average arm and average defense, profiling as a future CF at the professional level. His superior hand-eye coordination allows him to consistently square up on the ball, though he'll have to work on his mechanics to start driving the ball with more force. Like many prep hitters, he's gotten by on "metal bat" bat speed and accurate hands -- he'll need to build more power through his legs to take the next step.

Dan Hultzen (SP) St. Albans High School (D.C.)
6'2" / 195lbs / B-T (L/L)
Not Scouted
0.82/0.53, 66 IP, 127 SO, 13 BB

The likely Virginia Cavalier-to-be throws his fastball in the upper-80s to low-90s with good boring action and brings a fringe-above-average slurve to the table, as well. The lefty has further flashed various show-me pitches, including a split-finger, but for now relies primarily on his fastball/slurve combo. He shows solid command over his best two offerings and could conceivably wind-up a legitimate Round 1 talent if he can't be lured away from Charlottesville.

Sonny Gray (SP) Smyrna High School (Tenn.)

6'0" / 185lbs / B-T (R/R)
Scouted: Film

0.79/0.91, 35 IP, 78 SO, 17 BB

Gray is a little undersized for a pitcher, though you'd never know it from his radar gun readings. His fastball sits in the mid- to upper-90s and his curveball is a second above-average offering that sits in the mid-80s. Throughout the summer circuit he threw each with command and confidence. His size has some profiling him as a shut-down power closer, though he'll likely get the chance to start wherever he ends up. His strong commitment to Vanderbilt may make signing him an issue, but his arm is too good for a team not to take a flier on him.

Jordan Swagerty (SP/C) Prestonwood Christian Academy (Texas)
6'1" / 175lbs / B-T (R/R)
Scouted: Film
0.50/0.55, 83 IP, 147 SO, 10 BB

Swaggerty is not far enough along is his offensive game to warrant top consideration and he has happily committed to Arizona State. These two facts may make it difficult for teams to draft and sign the starting catcher from last year's Junior U.S. National Team. Behind the plate he is efficient and shows a good feel for receiving and throwing. At the plate, his swing lacks force (from both sides of the plate). A bump in velocity since last summer has scouts looking at him primarily as a pitcher. He sits in the low-90s with his fastball and shows average feel for his curveball. Relatively new to the mound, he has a lot of developmental time ahead of him to improve his pitchability. As a tool set, he is an intriguing package that could easily find himself in the first round in three years should he continue on to Arizona State.

Brett Mooneyham (SP) Buhach Colony High School (Calif.)

6'5" / 220lbs / B-T (L/L)

Not Scouted

0.49/1.19, 43 IP, 56 SO, 36 BB

The big bodied lefty is one of the top prep lefties in this year’s class and will likely be among the most difficult to sign. In addition to being a Boras advisee, Mooneyham has excelled as a student and has committed to Stanford. He has a big league frame and stands to add a little more size, as well as velocity, making him an intriguing project. Currently, his fastball sits in the low-90s, occasionally touching as high as 95. While he has not yet had to rely on secondary pitches, his slider stands to be a potential above-average offering. It's reasonable to think that as he cleans up his mechanics and fills-in his frame he could add a few more mph. Rumblings among scouts indicate that Mooneyham is nearly unsignable, but his impressive frame and big league "stuff" should draw a late pick and solid run at signing.

Schedule
6/5 am Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Draft Mailbag (June 4th)

The Round 4, Round 5 and Singability Fliers post will be up shortly (there were two last minute changes, one bumping a player from 4th round consideration and one bumping a player up to 4th Round consideration after re-watching some tape), but I wanted to post our Mail Bag at noon, as scheduled.

Thanks for the great questions, we're posting our six favorite so as not to run the piece too long (sorry for those questions we could not get to this time around):

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Who do you think are the most overrated position player and pitcher for college and high school? -- Dewon

Generally, I question the high school players that jump a great deal due to late season performance or "buzz". This year, I think Brett Lawrie (IF/C) Brookswood SS (Brit.Co.) is a prime candidate. He has great raw power and a keen eye but no position he can play at the ML-level, so far as I can tell. He may settle in as an outfielder, but he is not far enough along as a catcher to start learning it at the pro level (not to mention teams will likely not have enough patience to hold his bat back).

I'll take Kyle Lobstein (SP) Coconino HS (Ariz.) as my overrated HS pitcher. He is still lining up as a supplemental round pick on most boards -- I just don't see his stuff playing at the higher levels. His fastball hasn't improved as was expected, still sitting in the mid- to upper-80s. His curve shows promise, as well, but he hasn't been able to put everything together against stronger competition. It will likely take first round money to sign him away from the Arizona Wildcats, and I don't think he is worth that right now.

College, I'll go with Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia solely because he will likely go in the top 10 and I feel he is closer to a mid-round talent. Tanner Scheppers (SP) Fresno State could be an overdraft, as well. Teams rightfully fell in love with his stuff this year and may be overlooking potential complications with his shoulder if they grab him in the first round. He'll be a high risk/high reward guy with the shoulder problems -- personally, shoulders scare me.

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I hate it when I read that a pitcher is projected to be a “back-of-the-rotation guy.” What criteria are typically used when placing that label on a player? -- Paul

Usually this describes a pitcher with good command but fringy stuff. That means it's likely been good enough to play well at the pitcher's current level but doesn't necessarily project to be enough to dominate Major League hitters. Back-end guys also tend to project as "workhorses"; the ability to eat some innings is added value for a pitcher that doesn't possess front-end stuff and is key in helping to land them a spot in a rotation. There is little value in having a back-end guy that also puts a strain on your bullpen (though obviously there are teams across baseball with this very problem). Keep in mind that it is no easy feet to find a dependable #4 or #5 -- nabbing one in the third round and up, especially one that could be contributing within two years or so, is a solid get.
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Of all the guys you think the Orioles may select . . .what do you think could be the biggest stretch? As in who is the lowest guy on your board that the Orioles might select? -- Mike

This sort of ties in with our first question. Personally, I think Gordon Beckham would be a big overdraft at #4, for reasons stated in our Scouting Report (linked in the answer to the first question). Aside from Beckham, I think you can make a valid case for any of the other six we examined. I don't imagine Baltimore will drop out of that crop of players for 1:4.

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Whats the time table of the top 5 guys in the draft to make it to the majors? -- Scott

I am going to assume that all sign late (as generally happens with the top picks) and will thus start their careers next spring. Using our draft board, the time table should look something like this:

1. Alvarez -- April 2010 / June 2010
2. T-Beckham -- September 2012 / April 2013
3. Matusz -- April 2010 / June 2010
4. Posey -- June 2010 /September 2010
5. Smoak -- June 2010 /September 2010

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This is more of a general question rather than something O's-specific:I am curious to know your opinion on the strategy employed by some teams like the Yanks who target high-ceiling players with injury history. As we saw with Andrew Brackman last year and we may see again with Tanner Scheppers (Fresno State) or Brett Hunter(Pepperdine), what are the dangers associated with such a strategy and do the risks outweigh the benefits (or vice versa)? -- MJ

I think grabbing someone like Brackman who's injury is a known quantity (the Yankees knew he would require TJ Surgery) is fine, especially when the recovery rate is so high. For Someone like Scheppers, with a shoulder injury, I think the risk is a little greater. Unless I had extra picks in the first two rounds, I don't think I take a gamble unless I know exactly what's going on with Scheppers's shoulder. Hunter is an interesting case. His delivery is unorthodox so I question whether arm problems won't sprout up later, even though his elbow issues should not prevent his being drafted. Short answer, I think you have to let the injury and your draft situation dictate what a reasonable slot would be for a player. I think the Yankees were wise to grab Brackman; I like Scheppers in the second round and Hunter in the late third round.

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Is it easier to project pitchers or hitters? -- Paul

We'll close with another one from Paul since I think it is a particularly poignant question in understanding the draft. Projection is an art regardless of whether the player is a pitcher or a positional talent. Because the Major Leagues are so far away for most of these kids, you really have to try and create an image in your head as to what a certain player will look like in three years, then try to figure out how that player will handle himself. That said, pitchers present a unique challenge. They are a much better bet for injury and they generally have more developmental requirements to compete at the Major League level. Most amateur arms have the tool set to be successful, but are still a ways off in developing their secondary stuff, developing control, developing command of their pitches in the strike zone and generally learning the mental approach required to get out professional hitters. Add to this that high school, travelling team and college coaches are hired to win games, not nurture the gradual development of their pitchers' arms, and you have a plethora of pitfalls waiting to halt the growth of any prospect pitcher. The large number of uncertainties surround minor league pitchers have sprouted a corny saying that you'll probably read or hear if you follow the MiL: TINSTAAPP, which stands for "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect". I disagree with this, but the sentiment is right -- the attrition rate is too high for any team to definitively depend on a pitching prospect to reach the ML, let alone dominate there.


Thanks for the great questions. We here at the Depot look forward to the next time we get together for something like this. Until then, always feel free to drop us a line with questions, comments, complaints and suggestions. All are welcome!

Draft Preview -- Beyond 1:4 (Rounds 2-3)

Beyond 1:4 (Unofficial Team USA Edition)

Now that we've taken a look at the seven most likely options for Baltimore at 1:4 and created our Round 1 draft board, let's take a look at some possible targets for the next four rounds. Remember, on Thursday we will be running a Shadow Draft, selecting a player in each of the first five rounds based on players available for each of Baltimore's first five picks. We'll keep track of the Camden Depot Farm System, periodically comparing it to Baltimore's actual system.

We'll quickly run through five potential targets for each round, keeping in mind that there will likely be unexpected players available in each round, and seemingly safe picks selected before Baltimore has a shot at them. While each of these players could be valuable additions to the Orioles's organization, this exercise is really to give us all an idea as to the types of players that should be available at various points in the draft.

Round 2

Anthony Hewitt (OF/SS) Salisbury School (Conn.)

6'1" / 195lbs / B-T (R/R)

Not Scouted

.536 AVG, 1.200 SLG, 56 AB, 9 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 19 RBI, 30 R, 10 SB

Hewitt represents the type of player that Boston has landed in recent drafts -- massive upside talent with high signing bonus demands. Hewitt is very much projection at this point, with his arm strength, speed and raw power coming in above-average. Unrefined in the field, he is unlikely to stay at SS, with his speed and arm strength making him a prime candidate for RF/CF. His approach at the plate still leaves much to be desired, as he has struggled with pitch identification and patience against more advanced competition, though scouts seem to be willing to look past this every time they watch him launch a 450 foot homerun into the bleachers. Whichever team is willing to invest the money and developmental time into Hewitt could be rewarded with a future All-Star.

Jordy Mercer (SS) Oklahoma State University

6'3" / 200lbs / B-T (R/R)
Scouted: July 20, 2007 -- USA vs. Cuba (Film)
.323/.369/.498, 263 AB, 12 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR

At 6'3" and 200 pounds Mercer is on the big side for a shortstop, though Baltimore fans should have no trouble wrapping their minds around the idea of big body at the six. Mercer is smooth in the field, ranging well to both sides, and possesses an above-average arm. He has a solid tool set at the plate, showing the ability to hit for average and potential for average power for a shortstop. Mercer should be a fairly safe bet to stay at shortstop throughout his pro career, and should hit enough to be a solid contributor for a Major League club. After the Beckhams, he's the best all-around shortstop in the draft -- he may be a safer bet than Gordon to stay at the six and a safer bet than Tim to become an above-average hitter at the ML-level.

James Darnell (3B) University of South Carolina

6'2" / 210lbs / B-T (R/R)

Scouted: May 23, 2008 vs. Vanderbilt (Film)

.306/.395/.580, 255 AB, 13 2B, 0 3B, 19 HR

Back in February Darnell was almost an after-thought in the South Carolina lineup, with Reese Havens and Justin Smoak garnering most of the pre-season attention. 63 games and 19 homeruns later everyone has been forced to take notice. The 'Cocks thirdbaseman is an elite athlete, and at 6'2" and 210 pounds he already possesses the body of a Major Leaguer. His hands leave something to be desired and there are questions as to whether he can hold down 3b as a pro; like Hewitt his speed and arm strength could land him in RF/CF. Darnell is still raw, but his upside is that of a legit five-tool player at the ML-level. His raw power should play well once he improves his plate discipline.

Roger Kieschnick (OF) Texas Tech
6'3" / 215lbs / B-T (L/R)

Scouted: July 20, 2007 -- USA vs. Cuba (Film)

.305/.407/.632, 220 AB, 15 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR

Though a hot-and-cold 2008 has dropped the Red Raider outfielder out of the first round, the skills are all there for Kieschnick to emerge as a middle-of-the-order bat at the ML-level. He has fringe above-average speed and an above-average arm, making him a good fit for right field. Though he's already a pretty big body (6'3" 215 pounds), there is room in his frame to add some muscle without sacrificing mobility. He has shown plus-power potential to all fields and could move quickly once he learns to tame his aggressiveness at the plate. Kieschnick is a talent that could slip into the early supplemental round or late into Round 2 depending on whether or not teams feel he'll be able to improve on his 42/35 SO/BB ratio once he begins his professional development.

Tim Murphy (SP) UCLA

6'2" / 205lbs / B-T (L/L)

Scouted: March 1, 2008 vs. Bethune-Cookman (Film)

3.34/1.26, 102.1 IP, 111 SO, 46 BB, .227 BAA

Murphy boasts an impressive 1-2 punch of a high-80's / low-90s fastball and a high-70s 11-5 two-plane curveball. He spots his fastball well to both sides of the plate, though he'll have to build up his arm strength as a pro, as his velocity dipped a bit as the season wore on. His curve is a fringe-plus pitch that he can either throw for a strike or bury as a chase pitch. His motion is easy and repeatable, though he can sometimes get a little long and lose his release point. Murphy has a lot of projection in him, and should be a safe bet as a back-end ML starter. If he's able to improve the command on his curve and further develop his changeup, there may be #3 upside in there, though it will take some developmental time to reach it.

Round 3

Ryan Flaherty (SS) Vanderbilt University

6'3" / 210lbs / B-T (L/R)
Scouted: July 20, 2007 USA vs. Cuba; May 24, 2008 vs. Ole Miss

.324/.411/.543, 256 AB, 10 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR

Son of ABCA Hall of Fame Coach Edward Flaherty, Ryan is the consummate professional in going about his preparation for and performance in his games. Though he likely does not have the range to stay at shortstop at the next level, he should have no trouble sliding over to second base, as he did this past summer with Team USA. He is smooth and confident in field and his lanky frame is not expected to fill in a great deal, though more strength should come. The benefit is he should have no trouble sticking at the four spot. The drawback is there probably isn’t much power coming down the line. He profiles anywhere from a #1 or #2 hitter to a hitter in the bottom third of the order, depending on his development. He should hit for average and play a fringe-above-average second base as a pro. His make-up is hailed as top-notch.

Cody Satterwhite (SP) University of Mississippi
6'4" / 210lbs / B-T (R/R)

Scouted: July 20, 2007 USA vs. Cuba; May 24, 2008 vs. Vanderbilt

5.40/1.62, 71.2 IP, 53 SO, 36 BB, .297 BAA

Satterwhite will be an interesting selection this year. He has been dominant out of the pen in past seasons, but struggled a bit in the Ole Miss rotation in 2008. He has electric stuff, with a fastball sitting in the low-90s as a starter and mid- to upper-90s out of the pen. He can flash a curveball, slider and changeup as well, though his command will need improvement at the next level. He is an excellent example of mild-risk/high reward. He could be an effective reliever by simply focusing on his fastball and one of his breaking pitches, but the potential is there for him to be an impact pitcher at the ML-level. His has the size and strength to hold up as a starter – it will be up to his new organization to tap into his immense potential.

Scott Bittle (CP) University of Mississippi

6'1" / 212lbs / B-T (R/R)

Not Scouted

1.63/0.89, 66.1 IP, 118 SO, 27 BB, .142 BAA

Bittle leads all of college baseball with a staggering average of 16.02 strikeouts per nine innings. In fact, despite pitching out of the pen, Bittle currently ranks fifth overall in strikeouts. Though he doesn't blow away scouts with his velocity (his fastball sits in the 88-91 mph range), his cutter is a legit 2-plane pitch clocking in the mid-80s. He also mixes in a solid changeup that plays up because of the effectiveness of his cutter. He commands his arsenal to both sides of the plate and is especially effective with his cutter down in the zone, starting it at the knees and dropping it out of the zone. He should move quickly through the minors, as he has a firm grasp on his pitches as shows above-average command.

Adrian Nieto (C) American Heritage High School (Florida)

6'0" / 200lbs / B-T (R/R)

Not Scouted

.372 AVG, 1.200 SLG, 86 AB, 16 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 31 R, 6 SB
Nieto is the complete package behind the plate. Soft hands, clean exchange from glove to hand and excellent footwork. He has experienced arm troubles over the past two seasons, but when healthy he displays plus-arm strength and fringe-above average accuracy. He has above-average power from pole-to-pole, but will have to improve his pitch identification and his ability to make consistent solid contact in order to fully realize that power. He benefited a great deal from hitting behind fellow 2008 future-draftee Eric Hosmer, often hitting with runners on and seeing a lot of fastballs. The two helped American Heritage to a Florida State Title and likely Baseball America’s top high school ranking for 2008. He will likely take at least four years to bring along, making him a solid candidate to step in eventually if Wieters has to move out from behind the plate.

Video Posted from Adrian's Gallery on Takkle.com

Jordan Danks (OF) University of Texas

6'5" / 210lbs / B-T (L/R)
Scouted: July 20, 2007 USA vs. Cuba; March 29, 2008 vs. Nebraska; May 25, 2008 vs. Kansas State

.321/.444/.564, 234 AB, 22 2B, 7 3B, 7 HR

Perhaps the best collegiate athlete in the draft, Danks has a Major League tool set and a wealth of untapped potential. Despite being one of the best prep power bats in the 2005 draft (a class that included Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin and Justin Upton) Danks has only managed 12 HR in three college seasons. While scouts are at a loss as to his power-shortage, there is little doubt that a middle-of-the-order bat buried in this athletic centerfielder. The question is whether or not the risk is worth a second or third round pick (which is likely where Danks will go). Danks is effective and shows good baseball instincts in the outfield. He tracks the ball well in centerfield and has an adequate arm to stay there. As an aside, his brother John is enjoying some success in his sophomore Major League season as a part of the starting rotation for the first place Chicago White Sox.

Schedule
6/4 am Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5

6/4 Noon Mail Bag

6/4 pm Final War-Room Review

6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Don't forget to keep the great questions coming for this Wednesday's Mailbag.

Draft Preview -- Finding 1:4 (Brian Matusz)

Introducing Brian Matusz

Prior to the 2005 MLB Rule 4 Amateur draft, Matusz notified each Major League team that he would not sign for less than $1.475 million dollars. The Angels selected him in the fourth round hoping to sign the talented lefty for less -- Scouting Director Eddie Bane and the Angels front office stood firm that he was not worth first round money at the time. Matusz proved himself to be a man of his word, turning down the opportunity to begin his professional career and opting to join the Toreros. Three years later he has put himself in position to go in the top 5 and is rumored to be among three players Tampa will be choosing between this Thursday at 1:1. Statistically, Matusz has been among the best for the past two seasons, though his mechanics leave some room for improvement. Provided he's still on the board, should Baltimore select this year's top lefty?

The Numbers

Statistics (National Ranking out of 500 Ranked)
Innings Pitched – 96 (Not Available)
Strikeouts – 131 (2)
Strikeouts Per 9 Innings – 12.28 (5)
Walks – 21 (Not Available)
Walks Per 9 Innings – 1.93 (88)
Hits Per 9 Innings – 7.50 (59)
Earned Run Average – 2.56 (38)
Wins – 11 (5)

For the second straight season Matusz will finish in the top 2 in strikeouts and in the top 10 in SO/9 IP. This weekend Matusz passed San Diego State's sophomore phenom Stephen Strasburg as the nations strikeout leader, and with Strasburg's season over Matusz is a good bet to finish at #1 (he finished behind only Vanderbilt's David Price last season -- Price went 1:1 in the '07 Draft). Matusz combines high strikeout numbers with solid peripherals, averaging fewer than 2 BB/9 IP and fewer than 8 H/9 IP. Statistically he is one of the top five pitchers in college baseball, and the best arm available for this year's Draft.

The Frame

At 6'4" and 200 pounds, Matusz is a textbook example of a lanky lefty. He has a large frame, leaving plenty of room to thicken throughout his pro career. Durability should not be an issue, and he should settle in nicely as a workhorse in a Major League rotation.

Scouting: Film

Motion
Weight Transfer – Matusz's motion is compact and efficient, wasting little energy and focusing his momentum towards his target. He keeps his hips and lead glove closed as he leaves his knee raise and transfers into his stride. The stride is where Matusz can get into trouble. He doesn't utilize his legs to their full extent, usually taking an undersized step towards the plate.


This is detrimental in three ways: 1) he is not fully utilizing his strength in his legs to drive towards home, meaning he's losing some velocity, 2) by not extending outwards, he's throwing from an elevated position, making it more difficult to pitch on a downward plane, and 3) he is lengthening the distance between his release point and home plate, meaning his fastball is less likely to have the appearance of "late life" (when the pitch appears to explode towards the hitter around 2/3rds of the way to the plate). From time-to-time he'll land on a stiff front leg, which some have flagged as potential concern for future injury. While the conclusion of his weight transfer could use some tinkering, the shortcomings are more likely to be the difference between Matusz being a #1 starter or a #3 starter than they are to be the difference between success or total failure at the ML-level.

Arm Action – Because his weight transfer isn't ideal, Matusz relies on his size and his arm strength to get his fastball into the low-90s. As he plants, his arm is loaded at shoulder height and is in prime position to follow his lead glove, hips and torso efficiently and effectively. At times he can get a little stiff in the arm, though generally his motion is fairly clean and easy. He comes in slightly above a 3/4 release and uses an almost identical arm slot for all of his pitches.

Follow-Through – Like Crow, Matusz has a very free and easy follow-through. His balance is centered, keeping his momentum forward and preventing and fall-off. This also assists in maintaining his above-average command. His arm is loose and free coming across his body, with little to no recoil. His head stays quiet and his body, in general remains well under control.

Pace – Matusz is clean throughout his delivery. He keeps a good pace through his motion, not allowing energy to escape through unnecessary movement. As discussed above, a longer stride would help unleash more of the energy that he has built up through his knee raise, but all-in-all he is deliberate and direct to the plate. His momentum builds well and continues through his release.


Motion Grade – B+ – If Matusz can lengthen his stride, he could add 2-3 mph on his fastball. This could be the difference between success and dominance at the Major League level. His motion is effortless and repeatable, making it highly likely that Matusz will be able to successfully make adjustments once he starts his professional career.

Stuff
The variance in stride leads to some inconsistencies in fastball velocity. Some days Matusz sits 88-90 mph, and others he sits 90-93 mph. He commands it well and is able to both throw strikes and place his fastball in the four corners of the strike zone. Since he works primarily off of his offspeed stuff, his fastball has a tendency to "sneak up" on hitters who are looking for his plus changeup or plus curveball. His changeup is among the best in college baseball, and his curve serves as his primary offering. He has above-average command with both. His slider is a fringe average pitch that he commands reasonably well, though it is his fourth best offering behind the fastball. His above-average arsenal combined with superior command is probably good enough to get out ML hitters right now, though he'll need to get his fastball consistently in the 92-94 range if he wants to establish himself as a legit frontline starter.

Arsenal Grade – B+
Command Grade – A

Is Matusz Worthy of 1:4?

Matusz profiles as a #2 starter capable of pitching up to a #1 provided he's able to tweak some of his mechanics. Usually, command is the last tool to come for a young pitcher. Matusz has command to spare, making him a prime candidate to move quickly through the Minors. He hasn't necessarily been the best overall arm over the last two seasons (Price and Strasburg probably taking those honors for '07 and '08, respectively) but he has been consistent and consistently near the top of any SP list. While no pitcher should be considered "safe", he is the best bet of the college arms to reach his potential and should be in heavy demand come Thursday.

Prospect Grade – A-
Suggested Draft Slot – 1-4
1:4 Recommendation – Strongly Consider drafting

Current Draft Board

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Vanderbilt University
2. Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin High School (Georgia)
3. Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
4. Buster Posey (C) Florida State University
5. Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
6. Aaron Crow (SP) University of Missouri
7. Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia Draft Preview

Schedule

6/3 am Potential Targets for Rounds 2-3
6/3 pm Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5
6/4 Mail Bag and Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Don't forget to keep the great questions coming for this Wednesday's Mailbag.

Draft Preview -- Finding 1:4 (Aaron Crow)

Introducing Aaron Crow

The University of Missouri right-hander forced himself into top 10 consideration last summer, leading the Cape Cod League with a 0.67 ERA while striking out 36 and walking 9. His fastball velocity jumped up to the 93-96 mph range (up from 84-86 when he arrived at Missouri) and occasionally touched 98, and at the season's conclusion he was awarded the Robert A. McNeese award given to the top prospect as selected by the scouts. Riding high into 2008, questions remained as to whether his new-found velocity, and dominance, would hold up over the course of an entire season. So how did his season shake out, and should Baltimore consider him at 1:4 if available?


The Numbers

Statistics (National Ranking out of 500 Ranked)
Innings Pitched – 78 (Not Available)
Strikeouts – 117 (6)
Strikeouts Per 9 Innings – 10.71 (20)
Walks – 38 (Not Available)
Walks Per 9 Innings – 3.02 (371)
Hits Per 9 Innings – 7.51 (60)
Earned Run Average – 2.56 (38)
Wins – 12 (1)

Crow met expectations as the nation's wins leader and ranking in the top 10 in strikeouts. Not only did he finish with an ERA just over 2.50, but his season included a scoreless streak of 43 innings, as well as 4 complete game shut-outs. While he faded a bit after the streak, he came on strong in the final week of the season and through the Big 12 Tournament and Regionals this past weekend. The red flag here is walks. Given his strong showing in H/9 and SO/9, it's a bit troubling to see Crow average over 3 BB/9 IP (370 pitchers ranking ahead of him).

The Frame

Crow is not a big body, sizing in at 6'2 and 195 pounds. There are concerns that his body will not hold up over the course of a Major League season, making him better suited for relief work. He primarily generates his velocity through arm speed.

Scouting: Film

Motion
Weight Transfer – Crow is very clean in his weight transfer. His motion is compact, with a still head and upper-body. His lower half does the bulk of the lifting in getting him from knee raise to plant, as it should. He drives well off his back leg and hips and glove hand stay closed through the motion, beginning to open as he plants his left foot. The hips and glove lead the upper half of his body, and finally his arm with all the momentum directed towards the plate. He keeps his upper-body at a 90 degree angle, allowing him to throw on a hard downward plane.



Arm Action – Crow's red flag is a cocking of the throwing arm as he begins towards home plate. You can see from the video that his wrist curls up towards the elbow as he raises his arm behind his body. The issue here is two-fold. First, he is expending energy during this muscle flex which in turn cannot be used towards his delivery. Second, he is flexing his wrist and placing stress on the tendons in his elbow. While this may not be a fatal flaw, it dramatically increases the likelihood that he will eventually run into elbow problems and, perhaps, Tommy John surgery. This also plays a part in a slight drag in his delivery. He comes with a 3/4 delivery.

Follow-Through – Perhaps the best aspect of his motion is the follow-through. His balance is centered, finishing directly towards home. His arm motion is free and clean, coming across his body with almost no recoil at all. This will minimize potential stress on the arm, as well as loss in velocity.

Pace – From both the windup and the stretch, Crow drags ever so slightly during his arm cock, which slows his delivery a bit. His arm speed and follow-through are solid enough to mitigate the ill effects of this drag, and he does not seem to lose velocity. Most importantly, aside from his arm cock, he isn't expending extra energy, and is therefor maximizing his momentum towards the plate.



Motion Grade – B+ – Crow has solid mechanics, an above-average weight transfer and a clean follow-through. Though his arm drags a bit, and his arm cock is potentially problematic, neither has had a demonstrable negative effect as of yet. If he can stay healthy, there should be very little tinkering required in order to get him Major League ready from a mechanics standpoint.

Stuff
Crow's calling card is his low- to mid-90s plus-fastball that touches 98 mph and comes in with good boring (sink) action. He brings it from a 3/4 arm slot and throws it effectively to both sides of the plate. His command in the zone is hit and miss, but at this point in his career he is simply throwing it by everyone. His slider is a second plus-pitch that he throws out of an almost identical arm slot. This makes the pitch deceptive by making pitch ID difficult for the hitter. His command is somewhat lacking with the slider, but he has enough feel for it to make it an effective second offering right now. His changeup has the potential to be a solid third pitch, but he has not needed it enough as of yet to develop it. For now, it is a good "show me" pitch that he struggles to command.

Arsenal Grade – A
Command Grade – B

Is Crow Worthy of 1:4?

A strong finish to the season has re-established Crow as the top right-hander in the draft. While there are concerns as to his durability and future elbow problems, it is impossible to ignore his electric stuff. Like former teammate Max Scherzer, he could move quickly to the Majors and pitch out of a big league bullpen by his second year. To be an effective starter, however, he will need to hone his command and commit to establishing his changeup as a legitimate third pitch. Whichever team drafts him would be wise to bring him along slowly, given his size and the potential for arm troubles. His upside may top Scherzer if he can stay healthy -- a big "if".


Prospect Grade – B+
Suggested Draft Slot – 5-8
1:4 Recommendation – Consider drafting

Current Draft Board

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Vanderbilt University
2. Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin High School (Georgia)
3. Buster Posey (C) Florida State University
4. Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
5. Aaron Crow (SP) University of Missouri
6. Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia

Draft Preview Schedule

6/2 pm Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6/3 am Potential Targets for Rounds 2-3
6/3 pm Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5
6/4 Mail Bag and Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Don't forget to keep the great questions coming for this Wednesday's Mailbag.

Draft Preview -- Finding 1:4 (Tim Beckham)

Introducing Tim Beckham

Baseball America's 2007 Youth Player of the Year has set himself apart as the top high school talent in the 2008 MLB Rule 4 Amateur Draft. After posting an impressive line his junior season as the Griffin High School shortstop (.512, 9 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 20 SB), Beckham solidified his place in the minds of scouts last summer, consistently showing himself to be the top talent in each event of the showcase circuit. While his draft stock dipped a bit during a relatively slow start to his senior year, he finished strong over the final weeks and has reestablished himself as a legit potential 1:1 and a shoo-in to go in the top 5.

As our first HS player examined, we should point out two things. First, high school stats don't tell a huge story. It's enough to see that they are impressive, but they shouldn't be used as a measuring stick against college players or other high school players -- the discrepancies in talent faced from draftee-to-draftee are too great. Second, Beckham is not an Upton (Alex Eisenberg does a good job breaking down the differences in their swings in an article for Baseball Digest Daily). Comparisons are made because he is an African American high school middle infielder being discussed as a number one overall pick, but his game is very different. No team should draft him expecting to get Justin or BJ (Beckham does not have the power or advanced offensive approach of either Upton and his is far superior in the field). With that Said, let's see if he would fit at 1:4.

The Numbers

Statistics

Senior Year:

At Bats – 78
Hits – 39
Doubles – 9
Triples – 3
Homeruns – 5
Runs Batted In – 31
Batting Average – .500
Slugging – .885
Total Bases – 69
Stolen Bases – 16

Summer Circuit:
At Bats – 132
Hits – 54
Doubles – 15
Triples – 8
Homeruns – 9
Runs Batted In – 38
Batting Average – .409
Slugging – .848
Total Bases – 112
Stolen Bases – 32

The summer circuit stats are particularly impressive, given that Beckham was consistently playing against the best talent in the country. He was able to hit for average, as well as power, and he was at the top of his running game. It would be fun to see what he could do in three seasons at Southern Cal, but it doesn't look like that will be in the cards.

The Frame

Beckham stands at a wiry 6'2" and 190 pounds. He has the frame of middle infielder. There is little chance that his body grows out of shortstop, making him the best bet of the top middle infield talents to stay at the six-spot.

Scouting: Film

Swing
Load – Beckham's hands are in good position and his elbow is at a solid 45 degree angle, paving the way for a very quick path to the ball. He is a little too heavy on his back foot, but is close enough to a 60/40 weight distribution that it doesn't cause any big issues in his swing, other than a slight tendency to hit off of his front foot.

Stride – The stride is moderate in length and smooth. His hands stay in a power-load position, locked to his body as he moves forward. Because he was a little heavy on his back foot in the load, there is more weight moving forward in the stride, which causes his front hip to occasionally open a little early. Again, this should be easily correctable and will be key in Beckham making the transition from a line-drive hitter to potentially an above-average power bat.

Swing – His swing is very quick, utilizing mostly the upper-half of his body. His wrists and upper body whip the bat through on a clean plane, and because his hand and arm position were each solid through the load and stride he has a short path to the pitch. He is a little early with his weight-transfer, losing a bit of power before he actually gets to contact. Against more advanced pitching, this might be a problem. Again, it should be an easily correctable flaw.

Contact – Despite an imperfect weight-transfer, Beckham squares-up on the ball consistently and sprays the ball to all fields. His superior hand-eye-coordination and short path to the ball make hitting come natural.

Follow-Through – Beckham's follow-through is clean, though he spins-off a bit. This is likely because his upper body has too much momentum in comparison to his lower body at this point in the swing. Rather than flowing from hips to elbow to knob to barrel, his upper body is playing catch-up. Also, he sometimes is too strong with his top hand, limiting his extension a bit and causing him to finish up.

Swing Grade – B+ – There is a lot of room for improvement in Beckham's swing, which is pretty scary given his high level of success already. With some seasoning and professional development, Beckham has a tool set that could make him a well above-average hitter.

Fielding
Beckham is smooth and confident in the field. He is a plus-defender with great hands, above-average arm strength and good range to both sides. The tool-set is ideal for shortstop, and Beckham has a world of potential at that position.

Fielding Grade – A

Is Beckham Worthy of 1:4?

At this point, compared to the rest of the candidates to go in the top 3, Beckham is primarily a set of tools -- and what a set his is. He profiles as an above-average hitter, an above-average fielder at a valuable position and anywhere from an average to above-hitter hitter for power, depending on how his swing is crafted at the pro-level. If Baltimore is fortunate enough to have the opportunity to draft Beckham at 1:4, they would be wise to jump at it. Beckham will take a few extra years to develop, but the wait should be well worth it.

Prospect Grade – A
Suggested Draft Slot – 1-3
1:4 Recommendation – Draft

Current Draft Board

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Vanderbilt University
2. Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin High School (Georgia)
3. Buster Posey (C) Florida State University
4. Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
5. Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia

Draft Preview Schedule

6/1pm Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6/1pm Aaron Crow (SP) University of Missouri
6/2 Potential Targets for Rounds 2-3
6/3 Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5
6/4 Mail Bag and Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Don't forget to keep the great questions coming for this Thursday's Mailbag.

Draft Preview -- Update 5/31

Regionals kicked off yesterday for the College Baseball Field of 64. Potential draft targets Gordon Beckham (1-5, 1 RBI), Pedro Alvarez (0-3) and Buster Posey (1-3) had uneventful days in losing efforts. Justin Smoak fared much better, going 4-4 with 3 RBI and 3 R as South Carolina won their opening match-up against Charlotte, 16-8.

Two pitchers being watched closely by Orioles scouts, Brian Matusz (University of San Diego) and Aaron Crow (University of Missouri) each helped their cause with dominant starts. Matusz lead the Toreros to a 5-0 win over the Cal Bears, allowing 3 hits, 1 walk and striking out 10 in nine scoreless innings. Crow struggled a bit with control, but was equally unhittable, allowing 5 walks and 3 hits while striking out 10 in nine scoreless innings. Both would be available Sunday if necessary.

Draft Preview -- Finding 1:4 (Pedro Alvarez)

Introducing Pedro Alvarez

2008 was to be the pinnacle of an incredible college career for the Vanderbilt standout. Unfortunately, a broken hamate bone suffered in the 'Dores opening series did its best to de-rail the pre-season player-of-the-year's junior campaign. Alvarez was among the top hitters in college baseball in each of the last two seasons, and has been impressive in two stints with Team USA. It's been odd, to say the least, to see him struggle (relative to his previous level of performance). With the likes of Justin Smoak, Gordon Beckham and Buster Posey enjoying elite offensive seasons, and Alvarez reportedly sticking to his pre-season signing bonus demands, teams will have a difficult decision between the top performers of this collegiate season and arguably the top offensive talent over the last two years. Should the Orioles be fortunate enough to be in such a position, what should they choose? Should Baltimore once again grab the Boras "bonus baby" if the opportunity presents itself?

The Numbers

Statistic (National Rank out of 500 Ranked)
Games/Games Started – 37/37
At Bats – 154
Hits – 48 (NR)
Doubles – 14 (480)
Triples – 1 (NR)
Homeruns – 9 (315)
Runs Batted In – 28 (NR)
Batting Average – .312 (Not Eligible)
On-Base Percentage – .429 (Not Eligible)
Slugging – .591 (Not Eligible)

Total Bases – 91 (NR)
Walks – 27 (482)
Strikeouts – 26 (NR)

Given his limited action, and the tendency for hamate injuries to sap power by weakening the wrist, Alvarez's numbers are not as far off from the likes of Smoak, Posey and Beckham as they appear. Averaged out over the course of a full season (and understanding this is not exact), Alvarez was on pace for around 22 2B, 15 HR, 2 3B, 45 RBI and 147 TB -- a more than respectable performance. When compared to his previous outputs, however, this line falls well short. To get an idea of how good Alvarez has been, let's look as his lines through his freshman and sophomore years, as well as his two stints with team USA (keeping in mind his age):

'06 (Vandy) .329/.454/.675, 240 AB, 15 2B, 22 HR, 64 RBI, 57 BB, 64 SO

'06 (USA) .379/.467/.647, 116 AB, 12 2B, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 19 BB, 21 SO

'07 (Vandy) .386/.468/.684, 272 AB, 21 2B, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 40 BB, 65 SO

'07 (USA) .315/.399/.551, 127 AB, 9 BB, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 18 BB, 29 SO

It's a shame we were deprived of what could have been an inspired offensive display in 2008. However, Baltimore may be the lucky beneficiary should teams determine that this year's questionable output is enough to deter them from throwing $7 million or so at Pedro.

The Frame

At 6’2” and 225 pounds Alvarez has a Major League body that sits comfortably on a solid and bottom-heavy frame. His thick trunk and torso are the source of his lightening-quick bat speed and immense power, though it is also a concern for those scouts that think he will eventually have to move off of third base. On any given collegiate field, Alvarez appears as a man playing among children -- he should have no trouble adjusting quickly to the physical rigours of professional ball or holding his own against players two or three years his senior.

Scouting: May 23, 2008 vs. South Carolina (Film)

Swing
Load – Alvarez's stance starts with high hands and a raised elbow. He utilizes his load to drop and lock his hands into position while turning his front hip in, building up an enormous amount of potential force. His elbow remains elevated, pointing the barrel towards the pitcher and potential making for a lengthy swing. He is right around a 60/40 weight distribution.

Stride – Beginning with a wide stance, Alvarez's stride itself is little more than a lifting and dropping of his lead leg (similar to Albert Pujols). This is all he needs to start his weight transfer and begin to release the energy he built in his load. His hips remain closed, helping to project the force of his swing to and through the ball.


Swing – The above video illustrates how much torque Pedro's trunk and torso can generate, resulting in incredible bat speed. Even with this huge release of force, Alvarez stays under control, driving to the ball on a consistent plane. He is clean and smooth from hips to elbow to knob to barrel. A slight uppercut makes elevating and driving the ball natural.

Contact – Alvarez makes consistent hard contact, demonstrating good balance and control. Like Posey, his bat speed allows him to let the ball get deeper before beginning his swing, making pitch identification a little easier and helping him to routinely square up on the ball. His hip rotation is close to perfect, and at contact you can draw a straight line from his helmet down through his knee. Every bit of force in his lower half is efficiently pushed to and through the ball, and his bat speed generates good backspin and loft.

Follow-Through – Alvarez remains under control, releasing up and easy with two hands. He doesn't fall-off, which is again impressive given the torque generated through his hips.

Swing Grade – A – The Vandy thirdbaseman has a Major League-ready swing right now. He can drive the ball from pole-to-pole and has the work-ethic to continue tweaking and perfecting his approach. After struggling through the first two games of the SEC tournament, rather than returning to the hotel with the team, Pedro headed out to a batting cage in Hoover for a 2-hour BP session with some local high school players. He will hit in the middle of a Major League lineup for many years.

Fielding
Alvarez is a good athlete and profiles to be an adequate 3b/1b/RF/LF. Provided he doesn't add more thickness to his lower body, he should have no trouble sticking at the more valuable position -- 3B -- but his potential versatility should be a nice bonus for whichever team selects him. He has an adequate arm for 3B and charges the ball well.

Fielding Grade – B+

Is Alvarez Worthy of 1:4?
The idea of Alvarez and Wieters hitting in the middle of an Orioles lineup in the not-to-distant future is almost too good to be true. He has demonstrated leadership through words and example both with Vandy and Team USA, and already possesses a professional approach to his game. He should be the quickest to the Major Leagues out of any 2008 draftees and will be a force in short order. His price tag is not for the faint of heart, but whoever ponies up will be well rewarded.

Prospect Grade – A
Suggested Draft Slot – 1 to 3
1:4 Recommendation – Draft

Current Draft Board

1. Pedro Alvarez (3B) Vanderbilt University
2. Buster Posey (C) Florida State University
3. Justin Smoak (1B) University of South Carolina
4. Gordon Beckham (SS) University of Georgia

Draft Preview Schedule

6/1am Tim Beckham (SS) Griffin High School (Georgia)
6/1pm Brian Matusz (SP) University of San Diego
6/1pm Aaron Crow (SP) University of Missouri
6/2 Potential Targets for Rounds 2-3
6/3 Potential Targets for Rounds 4-5
6/4 Mail Bag and Final War-Room Review
6/5 Camden Depot Shadow Draft and Live Draft Coverage

Please feel free to contact us with any thoughts our questions -- we'd love to hear from you.