14 December 2017

The 29 Trades of Manny Machado (NL East edition)

Yesterday, the news appeared to break that the Orioles will now listen intently on what other teams are willing to offer him. The post will simply look at Machado's value and see how every other club would match up without really considering whether or not they want or could afford Manny. Machado is currently projected as a 6.9 WAR player, which is roughly worth about 56 MM in value. This is an underpriced value because a premium would be placed on a player that can give this level of performance while only occupying one slot in the lineup. That extra value probably ups his true Market price to around 70-75 MM.

However, Manny has to be paid and that cuts down the value of that 70 MM valuation. He is expected to earn 17 MM in arbitration, so that cuts his value down to 53-58 MM. It has been reported that the Orioles are asking for two starting caliber players, so that will be a major limitation on any deal. Anyway, here we go with this issue in which we focus on the NL East:

Philadelphia Phillies
J.P. Crawford, SS
Scott Kingery, 2B
Drew Anderson, RHSP
The Phillies have curiously been a name frequently connected to Machado. The club is populated with Orioles refugees, so they are well aware of the older parts of the system. However, they do not exactly seem ready to take on teams like the Nationals. Regardless, they could offer a few pieces. J.P. Crawford could step in now as a shortstop and Scott Kingery would be a potentially capable second baseman. Anderson is a viable pitcher who could be thrown into the fifth slot competition.

New York Mets
Ahmed Rosario, SS
Chris Flexen, RHSP
The Mets are not a great fit. Rosario would be an obvious choice, but then things fall apart from there. Perhaps they would seek out Chris Flexen and press him into a starter's role. Not sure what else would really make much sense. Maybe Brandon Nimmo if Mark Trumbo departs somewhere.

Miami Marlins
This one really seems like a waste of everyone's time.

Washington Nationals
Joe Ross, RHSP
A.J. Cole, RHSP
Carter Kieboom, SS
The Nats, after dealing out prospects left and right, no longer have many mid tier near MLB ready talents in their system anymore. For the Orioles to reach their two starters request, they would have to sink their teeth into the highly questionable pair of Ross and Cole who have delighted and tormented Washington fans. Some value would be left over, I think, where a fringe top 100 talent like low level SS Carter Kieboom would fit nicely in the Orioles' system, but be several years away.

Atlanta Braves
Kolby Allard, LHSP
Mike Soroka, RHSP
This would be a rough pair for Atlanta to give up. Perhaps add in Nick Markakis and maybe that primes the pump a bit. Allard and Soroka at potential top 50 arms and have done well in the upper minors. Neither of them are definitive mid-rotation mainstays, but they could be. The Orioles would likely be happy to have them both in the fold.

1 comment:

vilnius b. said...

I like the Atlanta trade you've suggested the most. But as you said, getting both would be hard to do. Is there anybody in our system that we could add to sweeten the pot, however unlikely such a trade might be? And as you said, we could take Markakis off their hands.
IMHO, the Philly trade would be even less likely. Would management be willing to trade two players that might be mainstays up the middle in their infield for at least several years?