12 December 2017

The 29 Trades of Manny Machado (AL East edition)

Yesterday, the news appeared to break that the Orioles will now listen intently on what other teams are willing to offer him.  The post will simply look at Machado's value and see how every other club would match up without really considering whether or not they want or could afford Manny.  Machado is currently projected as a 6.9 WAR player, which is roughly worth about 56 MM in value.  This is an underpriced value because a premium would be placed on a player that can give this level of performance while only occupying one slot in the lineup.  That extra value probably ups his true Market price to around 70-75 MM.

However, Manny has to be paid and that cuts down the value of that 70 MM valuation.  He is expected to earn 17 MM in arbitration, so that cuts his value down to 53-58 MM.  It has been reported that the Orioles are asking for two starting caliber players, so that will be a major limitation on any deal.  Anyway, here we go with this issue in which we focus on the AL East:

Boston Red Sox
Eduardo Rodriguez, LHSP
Michael Chavis, 3B
The Red Sox have this left handed starting pitcher by the name of Eduardo Rodriguez.  He has had some health and performance issues in Boston with the club somewhat souring on him (the Orioles soured on him too before sending him there).  He would provide more stability to the rotation for four more years.  Michael Chavis is a solid bottom 100 prospect who can play either third base or second base depending on the Orioles needs.

New York Yankees
Chance Adams, RHSP
Miguel Andujar, 3B
Some of the chatter in National media like to say Gleyber Torres is the best player to target, but he is too good.  He is a top ten guy.  In order to get two starters, there needs to be lower level targets.  Chance Adams is a pitchability guys with a solid breaking ball.  He dominated AAA last year and would be an easy fit into the Orioles' rotation.  Andujar has a gun at third and an offensive skillset where you could hope something develops.  He held his own last year in AAA and could break open with an MLB club.

Tampa Bay Rays
Brent Honeywell, RHSP
Jake Bauers, RF
Don't ask me why the Rays would ever want him.  If they did, then going after one of the better starters in baseball prospect circles would be a good idea.  Honeywell will be pushing for the rotation with the Rays this upcoming year and would almost assuredly get a place with the Orioles.  Jake Bauers has some impressive tools that play well in right field.  Right field is not exactly a place of need, but could be worked out if Hays shifted to left and Mancini could DH.

Toronto Blue Jays
Anthony Alford, CF
Logan Warmoth, SS
Well, the two starters idea fell apart with this club.  Alford is an obvious get, but nothing much sticks out beyond him.  He would be a great heir apparent to Adam Jones.  Beyond that, the Jays system is thinned out in comparison to what they had in the past and is pretty much concentrated in low minors positional talent.

3 comments:

Charles said...

I think only team with enough to make a deal (with an extension) on Machado in AL East is the Yankees. O's want an LHSP--Sheffield might be that guy. I know you said get two starting players for 2018. I look at it more for 2019. Could you go Sheffield/Andujar/Guzman, with a toss in or 2 to go with a negotiating window, or is that too much to ask?

If I'm trading Machado to the Yankees, I'm asking for a King's Ransom.

Rob said...

I'm not emotionally prepared for any of this...

Jacob Smith said...

Alright, let's look at the very best possible version of the Orioles for 2018. The team signs Cobb and Lynn and they both pitch along the lines of their best seasons. Duquette pulls of that Shelby Miller for Brad Brach trade and he makes 20+ starts and looks like 2014 Shelby Miller (realistically, I don't see him coming back from TJ and looking like 2013 or 2015, but 2014 is somewhere within the realm of possibility). Maybe they bring back Tillman and he turns into a dominant late-inning reliever. Then everything goes right. Britton pitches like he did in 2016. Adam Jones looks like 2017 Adam Jones and not 2016 Adam Jones. Davis hits .250 with 40 home runs. Machado hits .300 with 40 home runs. Mancini and Schoop hit .280 with 30 apiece.

That version of the Orioles still probably has to depend on some kind of slip-up from the Yankees or Red Sox to crack the top 2 spots in the division. That's how good those teams are right now. Kind of a depressing thought and I guess this is why the team is at least listening on Machado.

With that being said, let's say that ownership chooses to ignore the divisional landscape. Let's assume that in the end Angelos is Angelos and refuses to sign off on a rebuild and decides to go for it this year as most people seem to still expect. Would it be worth approaching the Yankees about Jacoby Ellsbury? Right now he's a $21 million 5th outfielder on his team. In Baltimore he'd have an argument as the best option on the roster for any outfield spot. Would the Yankees take a low-minors bat with some upside if the Orioles agreed to take on 60% of his salary? Sure, by the end of his deal he's going to be joining Davis in the dead weight category, but those years are looking like guaranteed dead time in any case, so who cares? If you're going for it in 2018, isn't Ellsbury a guy who can help?