The O’s kicked off the
week with an ugly loss, but the Slam it Like Beckham 2017 tour continues to
chug along at a steady pace.
The infielder again tapped
into his power stroke, connecting in the bottom of the first for a home run
measured at 376 feet. The opposite-field
blast extended his career high to 19, and marked his 7th in 33 games
with Baltimore
It seems all Beckham has
done is rake since he’s arrived. He’s
won over teammates and fans with his stellar play. Likewise, Baltimore
So, has the first pick of
the 2008 draft tapped into some fountain of potential? Or is he riding an unsustainable wave of good
fortune whose apex is bound to crash at any moment?
The answer, as usual,
probably lies somewhere in between. The
real question is, how does Mr. Beckham fit into the club’s long-term plans?
To me, there are two
avenues that make sense: double down or cash out. AKA, discuss the viability of a long term
contract or explore the off-season trade market.
Option A: Double Down
Baseball contracts are
like grains in a sieve, constantly shifting.
One thing’s for sure: if you’re sold on something, you should try your
best to lock it down. After all,
yesterday’s overpay may turn out to be tomorrow’s bargain, when adjusted for
salary inflation.
With that in mind, if the
Orioles believe Tim Beckham is their guy, they should look to buy him out of
his arbitration years. It could be a three-year
year deal with a club option totaling $25-30 million.
Beckham’s play, thus far,
has been other-worldly. His return
ticket to planet Earth will be scheduled any day now. Even in the event he completely regresses,
however, the modest commitment wouldn’t be back-breaking to the organization.
What you’re buying into is
the upside: that offensively he’s a poor man’s Jonathan Schoop with slightly
better wheels. That defensively he can hold
down the fort at short, with the versatility to slide over to second or third
in a pinch. If he can do all that, he’ll
be a bargain in that price range.
So, what’s the incentive
for the Beckham camp to willingly sign off on a deal that could leave millions
on the table? Well, they have access to
the same regression models as everyone else.
They have to figure Beckham’s not going to hit .394 all season, as he
did for the month of August. Why not
cash in and lock in multi-generational security for his family?
Besides, the Orioles are paying J.J. Hardy’s cadaver $12.5 million. I think they could scrape together some
change from under the proverbial couch cushion to pay for Beckham.
Option B: Cash Out
On the other hand, there
may not be a better time for the Orioles to flip their new acquisition than
this coming off-season.
With their most-recent
impressions of Beckham being his second-half surge, opposing general managers
will have to listen with at least feigned-interest should Baltimore come calling.
And, if the interest is expressed the other way around, the Orioles can’t afford not to listen.
Their farm system lacks blue chippers at virtually every position. Simply put, it needs massive work.
In the meanwhile, they
could sign a serviceable veteran to keep the fires warm until minor-leaguer Ryan Mountcastle
proves he’s ready for the show.
It’s highly doubtful this
scenario would happen, mainly because the Orioles are philosophically-opposed
to trading established players. Also,
Beckham seems to fit their idea of coveted player perfectly (low walk rate, average
power, high K-percentage). Still, it’s an
avenue worth at least exploring.
4 comments:
Arbitration is an interesting thing. Matt Perez wrote on it awhile back (http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2016/02/say-goodbye-to-40-60-80-rule.html), which suggests a 24/34/41 breakout for a position player. I think we could use that to give a couple estimates on what Beckham would see in arbitration. I think this year could be about a 3.5 WAR season for him. A 3.5 WAR season is worth about 25 million. So,
2018 - 6 MM
I think moving beyond that any extension would expect very good performance, so more 3 WAR seasons.
2019 - 8.5 MM
2020 - 10.3 MM
That gives you a 3/24.8 MM. So, 3/25 if he continues to be very good. For me, I would have to be sold on his value outlasting his .450 BABIP. If I think he is truly a 3.5 to 4 WAR player, then I would be willing to go in on simply buying out his arbitration years. Still, that would not be all that useful to me without also getting a free agent year or two in it.
For me I would be more willing to look at something around 4/35-40 or 5/55-60 if I truly believed in him.
Timely article. A few points:
1)Why would the Orioles 'buy' Beckham out of his arbitration? He's under team control until 2020. Wouldn't the Orioles be losing money if they did that? Please explain this thinking.
2)The problem with trading Beckham is that the O's would be out of a short-stop. There are no viable options for next season out of the minor leagues and the this year's free agency class is very lame. I don't see Beckham being traded for a player so valuable the O's would pass up on having a dud at SS for an entire season.
Matthew, a very cleverly written article. Enjoyed it.
Couple things: you didn't address the possibility or Manny moving to short and getting another 3B, which means that trading Beckham wouldn't create a serious hole.
You didn't mention Beckham's frustrating defense. He's below average at short and only Chris Davis' skills at 1B have saved several additional throwing errors.
Finally, a knock on Beckham was his attitude when things were going badly. I don't remember details but it was serious enough to have been a factor in the Rays getting Hechavarria and dumping Beckham.
Personally I'm all for selling to highest bidder, but the Orioles have been happily sacrificing D for O these last 2-3 years, so they'll likely keep Beckham.
So what if here..... Beckham's arm isn't great, Schoop's range isn't great, and Manny wants to play SS. I say Schoop to third maximizing that big arm, Manny SS to make him happy plus his range could help cover Schoop's lack of and last put Beckham at 2nd where the longest throw to first is from 2nd base and not shallow LF? I know it's crazy but you know, think about it?
Post a Comment