13 September 2017

How Bad Has The O's Offense Been This Past Week?

If there's one thing the Orioles couldn't afford to do heading into a crucial 10-game road trip, it was to stop hitting. Through the end of August, the O's offense had been fantastic, and it was mostly a group effort. Unfortunately, while the pitching has somehow held up over the last week, the offense has been truly awful.

Halfway through their road trip (three losses against the white-hot Indians and two losses to the Blue Jays), the Orioles have scored nine runs. Over the last seven days (including a 9-1 loss to the Yankees in Baltimore), the Orioles have scored 10 runs (tied for worst in the majors with the Angels).

In that span, the O's have the worst wRC+ (23), worst fWAR by almost double (-1.5), second-worst isolated power (.093), worst walk percentage (3%), and third-highest strikeout percentage (27.6%). And as Matthew Castelhano pointed out yesterday, the O's haven't had a multi-run inning since their dramatic 7-6 win over the Yankees on Sept. 6.

Over the last week, only two Orioles have a wRC+ over 100: Tim Beckham (139) and Adam Jones (107). Every other regular has a wRC+ of 52 (Trey Mancini) or below. The numbers are ugly.

Meanwhile, despite scoring only nine runs on the road trip, the O's rotation, barely hanging on by a thread, mostly did the job (thanks to plenty of assistance from the bullpen). In the five road games, the O's allowed 19 runs (under four per game). That type of effort is more than acceptable for this group, and yet the O's completely squandered it. They now sit three games under .500 at 71-74 and only have about a 1% chance of making the playoffs. It's all but over.

Obviously we're just talking about a week here. The O's offense has still been one of the MLB's best in the second half, and they could start hitting again at any moment. But the team's margin for error was tiny, and the offense completely collapsed when they needed it most.

It was probably unfair to keep expecting them to perform at such a high level, but that was really the only way the O's had a path to the postseason. Time to play the kids!

10 comments:

Unknown said...

Agree, play the kids. Can't wait to see what Ynoa looks like next start. Will he be a surprise fit in the rotation next year? Tune in to find out.

Anonymous said...

Why in the hell is Buck not playing Hays over Rickard regardless of the playoff race??? Or even Santander. It makes no sense at all. No Pedro at DH. Seems to me like fresh blood (especially in RF, 1B, and DH could make all the difference.

Jon Shepherd said...

The club is likely stuck with Trumbo and Davis for awhile, so it probably makes sense not to disturb them too much. They, unfortunately, are essential unless it is incredibly obvious that someone else is better.

Anonymous said...

It's not incredibly obvious that someone else is worse this year. I think that should be the standard not the converse. Hays could be a Machado in waiting.

Unknown said...

Hays misses playoffs at Bowie, is brought up why? TIME, past time, to play! Smith and his 31!!! RBI will not be here next year>

Unknown said...

Trumbo for 37.5 million, or Alvarez for 2 mill, that should have been an easy decision....

Jon Shepherd said...

That certainly should be the standard with a player like Smith and playoff hopes dying out. Things have to go pretty dark to sit Trumbo and Davis.

This is how baseball works. Longterm pieces have to be utilized unless they are unplayable.

Anonymous said...

I thought statistics was supposed to be changing all of that.

Jon Shepherd said...

The statistics are that Trumbo and Davis are almost certain to be on the team next year. That them being successful is needed for the club to be successful. And that a couple dozen more at bats from Hays is not going to alter anyone's evaluation of him.

Jon Shepherd said...

I want them to play Hays and it really is more of a Rickard Smith Hays discussion there. That said...there are clear reasons why he is not playing much with the team still under the claim of trying to be playoff bound.