Swapping In Kendall Graveman For Ubaldo Jimenez

To be fair, Ubaldo Jimenez is doing what he has always done.  The performance aspect, runs allowed, look worse, but it really is not much different than what Baltimore has seen from him in the past.  He has similar velocity, similar movement in his pitches, and similar placement.  Some of the major issues plaguing him are: (1) he appears to be getting squeezed. (2) he has worked the high end of the zone slightly more (which has worked out for him), and (3) he seems to be particularly vulnerable to low middle pitches, which is new.  Solutions to those issues would be (1) pair him with Caleb Joseph, (2) well, dealing high requires more control, so, eh (see: Miguel Gonzalez), and (3) maybe Joseph can help here, too.

However, a successful implementation of these strategies does not ensure success.  On top of that, how much rope does the club have left if they want to have a strong hand in the regular season march to a playoff position?  What else can be done?  Well, Jimenez is not a relief pitcher.  His issues with control and terrible ability to hold baserunners make him not much more than a junk inning pitcher.  As you may have noticed, the Orioles use all corners of their bullpen, so the club would be unable to protect themselves from Jimenez in that manner.

The club could simply designate Jimenez for assignment and release him.  Then they would be open to slotting Alec Asher into the rotation.  Asher has done well in the opportunities the Orioles have afforded him, but putting him in the rotation hampers the Orioles in needing to replace him in a bullpen that has not exactly been a strength.  More long term, the loss of Jimenez also means that the club has likely worse choices for a sixth starter.  As it is now, the rotation has six options ranging from Dylan Bundy to Jimenez (yes, I place Asher above Jimenez).  The batch in Norfolk simply does not look good.  Chris Lee has been revved up on MASN for a lack of runs scored on him lately, but his peripherals look terrible and he has benefited from pitcher's parks.

This leaves the option for a trade.  Of course, the Orioles do not have the depth they have had in years past when they had a healthy group of fringe prospects.  Based on my conversations with others, last year the team had only two off limits players: Chance Sisco and Hunter Harvey.  This year, the list is presumed to include those two plus Cody Sedlock, Ryan Mountcastle, and maybe Jomar Reyes.  That does not leave much left to dangle in trade discussions.

What could be done?  Well, the Orioles do have one area where they are clogged with talent: 1B/DH/pretend corner outfield.  In reality, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, and Trey Mancini all occupy the same space.  The Orioles need Chris Davis to play well to succeed and he has largely done that.  Trumbo is a bit of a luxury piece and is a commodity the Orioles could do without.  However, it is difficult to see anyone willing to hand the Orioles anything of note back.  A club wanting Trumbo would see themselves as a playoff contender and which playoff contender has an opening at first base, a belief in Trumbo, and quality starting pitcher to hand back?  In June?  I think it is safe to say that no one fits that description.

That leaves us with Mancini.  One of our own.  He is a player who has torched Major League pitching since given a cup of coffee last September.  His career slash line is 300/338/608 over his first 130 PA.  If Mancini has a rubbish career, then he would belong is a very small group of players who did so well so early only to have it fall apart.  A name that quickly rises to the tongue is Jeff Francoeur who over his first 274 PA slashed 300/336/549 with the caveat that Mancini does not have the fielding acumen that Francoeur had.

Mancini is also a player who has generated a great deal of confusion among scouts.  He does not look all that good.  He has regressed in his athleticism and shows less agility.  He is too tight and has a swing that can go long at times.  Mancini has done alright in the outfield, but he looks barely adequate out there and, long term, his place out there is highly questionable.  Basically, the scouting view is a player who is a fringe major leaguer, but his performance bumps him up to a 50.  In other words, he does not look good, but he has been getting the job done.

What this all means is that as well as Mancini has done, he is not highly valued.  He certainly is valued, but not highly.  A 50 rated player in his first year of control is quite valuable.  A discussion with some in the industry thought a one for one deal would be for a player like the Athletics Kendall Graveman or Marlins' Dan Straily.

Kendall Graveman would be an interesting target.  He is in his last year before arbitration and would not require a salary dump as he makes the same as Mancini.  Graveman's three more years of control are valuable with the Orioles' rotation currently in flux.  In Oakland, he has shown himself not to be an elite arm, but one capable of competently holding onto the backend of a rotation.  Graveman also likely gets a little more love for his use of a sinker.  However, a low to mid 4.00 ERA player may not exactly excite anyone when it costs someone who has performed as well as Mancini.

Straily has been similarly valuable to Graveman, but has experienced more ups and downs in his career.  His 90 mph four seamer also likely does not inspire much confidence from the Orioles front office.  He also has three more years of control as he enters arbitration after this season.  He tends to outperform his FIP, which either is a skill or a prolonged period of luck.  If skill, he is a mid to high 3.00 ERA pitcher.  If not, he is a high 4.00 ERA pitcher.

Picking up either for Mancini would make the Orioles better in 2017 (though maybe not in 2020-2022).  The Orioles have a redundancy with Davis/Trumbo/Mancini and are experiencing depth issues at starting pitching.  In a vacuum it makes sense to release Jimenez and take on a controllable arm like Graveman.  That said, it will be difficult for them to trade away their fourth most productive hitter.for someone who has produced at a level slightly less than Wade Miley this year.