wRC+ By Batting Order Slot: MLB vs. The Orioles

Spring training has begun and after an off-season filled with signings, rumored signings, re-signings rumored trades and agreements that may or may not have existed and fallen through, the Orioles lineup has begun to come into focus.  Barring a last minute signing of someone like Austin Jackson or Pedro Alvarez or a trade for the likes of Jay Bruce (one of which will inevitably happen the minute I submit this article) we can make a decent guess at the Orioles starters and how they’ll line up.  With that in mind it seems like as good a time as any to inspect that lineup and try to project how it ranks against the rest of Major League Baseball.

A couple of notes before I dive in: First, I tried to be as objective as possible in doing this evaluation.  This time of year in particular I tend to see everything through rose-colored glasses, but any ideas I have about Jonathan Schoop hitting 35 home runs or Manny Machado winning an MVP award aren’t particularly useful from an analytical point of view as I’m neither a professional scout nor an expert in statistical analysis.  So for this piece I’ll be dealing with only commonly available projections, specifically ZiPS and Steamer.  And to keep everything as simple as possible, I’ll just be looking at wRC+, an explanation of which can be found here. If you are unfamiliar, wRC+ is a stat that measures a player’s total offensive value, with 100 being league average.

Finally, this is my best guess at what the Orioles most frequent lineup will look like (and not necessarily what I think it should be).  Obviously, the Orioles will like use many lineup variations over the course of the year, but this seems like the best place to start. With that in mind, let’s dig in.

Batting First:

75th percentile: 115              50% 101                25%: 92

Orioles 2015: 122 (5^th of 30)

Manny Machado (Projected wRC+: 129)

Machado held down this lineup slot for almost all of 2015, registering 496 PA from the top of the lineup, supplemented by a scattering of appearances from Nolan Reimold (86 PA), Alejandro De Aza (68) and a scattering of others.  Though is future might well be as a middle-of-the-order hitter, Machado will likely return to the lead-off spot this year and it’s actually a hat he wears pretty well; in 2016 he was 2^nd on the team in OBP,  1^st in steals and 2^nd in extra base hits.  His 2016 projection of 129 wRC+ is more than solid for a lead-off hitter and (before accounting for at-bats accrued by others) would give the Orioles the best wRC+ for the lead-off spot. 

Batting Second:

75%: 120              50%: 105              25%: 94

Orioles 2015: 93 (24^th of 30)

Hyun Soo Kim (Projected wRC+: 106)

The second spot was a big problem area for the Orioles last year. Jimmy Paredes (202 PA batting second) got off to a hot start but regressed in a huge way as the season progressed and stumbled across the finish line.  Gerardo Parra inherited the lion’s share of the at-bats after the trading deadline but he disappointed, failing to match the level of production he achieved in Milwaukee.  Overall, the Orioles #2 hitters ranked near the bottom of the league; their cumulative 93 wRC+ put them 24^th of 30.  This year, I’m projecting Korean free agent acquisition Hyun-Soo Kim to get the bulk of the at-bats in the 2 hole.  Translating Korean stats to the Major Leagues is an inexact science, but projection models are fairly bullish on Kim.  He projects for 106 wRC+, which would put the Orioles right in the middle of the pack at 15^th of 30. 

Batting Third

75%: 134              50%: 120              25%: 107

Orioles 2015: 120 (Tied 14^th)

Adam Jones (Projected wRC+: 110)

Jones has occupied the third spot for most of his career as an Oriole and there’s every reason to assume that continues into 2016. Jones registered 111 wRC+, which is significantly below the 50^th percentile among major league 3^rd hitters, but the team got strong contributions from occasional #3 hitters Chris Davis and Manny Machado to finish right in the middle of the pack.  Steamer and ZIPs both think Jones holds right around his 2015 number again in 2016.  Jones isn’t an ideal #3 hitter- he’d be very strong in the 5^th or 6^th spot- but short of moving Machado or Chris Davis (and weakening the 1^st or 4^th spots) he is the Orioles best option here. 

Batting Fourth

75%: 132              50%: 111              25%: 106

Orioles 2015: 134 (6th)

Chris Davis (Projected wRC+: 134)

After a protracted contract negotiation and one-team bidding war, Chris Davis returns as the Orioles clean-up hitter and he’s a good one.  Davis was a monster last year slugging 47 home runs and scoring a wRC+ of 147 as the Orioles primary clean-up hitter.  Orioles clean-up hitters as a group scored a healthy 134, good for 6^th place out of 30 major league teams.  Davis projects right at that same 134 again, a healthy but slightly regressed number for him that would again put the Orioles in the 80^th percentile of the entire league.

Batting Fifth

75%: 115              50%: 100              25%: 89

Orioles 2015: 107 (11th)

Mark Trumbo (Projected wRC+:  108)

Trumbo, Matt Wieters and a sampling of others will likely occupy this spot, depending on who is hot and who is pitching, but in the name of simplicity, I’m slotting Trumbo here in the 5^th spot.  Wieters was the most common #5 hitter for the team last year, but with only 191 PA and the 5-hole’s production got a healthy assist from early season Chris Davis appearances to end up at 107 wRC+, 11^th best in the majors.  Trumbo projects right at that same level (108). 

Batting Sixth

75%: 102              50%: 91                 25%: 80

Orioles 2015: 76 (26th)

Matt Wieters (Projected wRC+:  94)

This is where things started to get hairy for the Orioles in 2015. The first five spots were relatively strong but the bottom half of the lineup was a catastrophe, largely due to the major holes offensive holes at DH, right field, left field, short stop and 2^nd base prior to Schoop’ s return.  The 6^th spot, occupied most frequently by JJ Hardy but really by no-one on a consistent basis compiled a wRC+ of 76, ranking a dismal 26^th of 30 teams.   Things are looking up slightly heading in to 2016.  Matt Wieters accepted the qualifying offer to return and looks to be healthy heading into spring training. His projection of wRC+ of 94 isn’t world-beating by any stretch, but would be good enough to move the Orioles into the top half of the league and represent a significant improvement. 

Batting Seventh

75%: 101              50%: 86                 25%: 78

Orioles 2015: 66 (30th)

Jonathan Schoop (Projected wRC+:  94)

Orioles 7^th hitters were there worst in the majors last year (see what I mean about the bottom of the lineup being a catastrophe?).  Like the 6^th spot, this was another revolving door with JJ Hardy getting the most at-bats (his bat really was a big problem last year, more on that later).  For 2016, I’m projecting Jonathan Schoop into this lineup spot, though he could foreseeably end up hitting anywhere from 6^th to 9^th depending on how Buck wants to stack it up.  It’s an article of faith among many Orioles fans that Schoop is a potential all-star on the verge of a break-out campaign after he posted a very solid 112 wRC+ in 321 trips to the plate in 2015.  That very well might be the case, but so far the projection models aren’t seeing it, deterred by his K-to-BB% (an ugly 24.6-2.8) and high BABIP. Still, his average projection of 94 puts is positively Ruthian relative to last year’s #7 hitters and would put the Orioles a much improved 10^th in the majors. 

Batting Eighth

75%: 91                 50%: 81                 25%: 68

Orioles 2015: 60 (26th)

JJ Hardy (Projected wRC+:  72)

Notice the trend?  The bottom of the Orioles lineup really was a sinkhole for most of last season. Hardy, Ryan Flaherty and Caleb Joseph hit from this spot a roughly equal number of times in 2015, but with their results ranging from bad to abominable.  I’m plugging Hardy in here for the purpose of this analysis.  He really should probably be the 9^th hitter, regardless of who plays right field, but I think the Orioles keep him out of the 9^th spot to start, out of respect for his reputation.  Hardy projects for 72 wRC+, somewhat of a dead cat bounce from the career low 49 he posted in 2015).  The Orioles are hoping for a bigger bounce back from a hopefully-healthy Hardy, but it’s very possible he’s in a similar spot to Brian Roberts a few years ago, where a series of injuries have obscured or excused a drop in performance that has just as much to do with natural aging.  Hardy’s lineup spot is safe though, as his solid glove work makes him a respectable option at SS for at least a bit longer.  His projection of 72 wRC+ would put the Orioles 20^th of 30 for the 8 spot. 

Batting Ninth

75%: 74                 50%: 72                 25%: 65

Orioles 2015: 74 (Tied 4^th of 14 AL Teams)

Nolan Reimold (Projected wRC+: 81) among others

The ninth spot falls to the right fielder, whoever that ends up being.  I suspect it will be a revolving door this year, at least until someone emerges as the leader of the pack at that position.  Orioles 9^th place hitters actually performed reasonably well relative to the rest of the AL in 2015, led by a strong performance by Caleb Joseph from that spot.  Candidates this year include Reimold, Joey Rickard (78 Projected wRC+) and Dariel Alvarez (a surprising 93!) among a score of other internal and external candidates. 

Summary:

wRC+ by Lineup Spot

#	75%	50%	25%	2015 Orioles	2016 Player	2016 Proj.
1	115	101	92	122 – 5th	Machado – 3B	129 (1st)
2	120	105	94	93 – 24th	Kim – LF	106 (15th)
3	134	120	107	120 – Tied `14th	Jones – CF	110 (22nd)
4	132	111	106	134 – 6th	Davis – 1B	134 (6th)
5	115	110	89	107 – 11th	Trumbo – DH	108 (11th)
6	102	91	80	76 – 26th	Wieters – C	94 (15th)
7	101	86	78	66 – 30th	Schoop – 2B	94 (T-9th)
8	91	81	68	60 – 26th	Hardy – SS	72 (T-20th)
9*	94	72	65	74 – 4th (of 15)	Reimold - RF	81 (4th)

*The stats for the 9th slot are relative only to American League teams

The projected Orioles lineup is very solid.  They are above the league median at 7 of 9 positions and 25^th percentile or better for 3.  The current lineup compares favorably to last year’s edition, which accumulated a wRC+ of 94 (21^st in the league) but over-performed that number to score 713 runs (9^th best in baseball). With a decent run of health, this year’s squad should be better on the basis of more depth.  Healthier seasons from Schoop and Hardy mean less plate appearances for Ryan Flaherty (wRC+ of 71) and the additions of Trumbo and Kim hopefully add stability and competency to positions that were revolving doors of disaster in 2015. 

This is not, however, an “elite” lineup, at least as it presents according to projections.  Only Machado and Davis are particular standouts relative to their counterparts across the league.   Some of previous years problems- high strikeout rates, low on-base percentage- will likely continue to 2016 but on the bright side, so will the strengths (home runs, and lots of them).  Taken as a whole, it appears we’re looking at a better version of last year’s offense, but likely not enough improved (on its own) to take the Orioles from 81 wins to where they would like to be in competing for a division title.