17 August 2014

Ubaldo Jimenez, Walks, and the Play Index

After another disappointing start last night, Ubaldo Jimenez now has a 4.83 ERA (and a 4.89 FIP and 4.44 xFIP) in 110 innings this season. He's striking out 8.02 batters per nine innings but is walking 5.40 per nine, which would not only be a career high but is also the highest among all MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings this season.

It's clear that the Orioles are not getting a good early return on the four-year, $50 million deal they inked Jimenez to in February. But this post isn't meant to bash Jimenez; there's enough of that going on already. I was curious how often starting pitchers could hand out walks and still pitch effectively. Jimenez has racked up the walks, but he clearly hasn't been effective. So I went to Baseball-Reference's Play Index and simply searched for pitchers (in the Expansion Era of 1961-2014) with seasons of more than 150 innings pitched, a BB/9 over 5.40 (where Jimenez is now), and an ERA+ over 100 (sorted by ERA+).

Rk Player SO IP BB9 ERA+ ▾ Year Age Tm G GS W L W-L% SV ERA FIP HR9 SO9
1 Nolan Ryan 341 299.0 6.14 141 1977 30 CAL 37 37 19 16 .543 0 2.77 3.12 0.36 10.26
2 Don Schwall 91 178.2 5.54 129 1961 25 BOS 25 25 15 7 .682 0 3.22 4.09 0.40 4.58
3 Bart Johnson 153 178.0 5.61 123 1971 21 CHW 53 16 12 10 .545 14 2.93 3.36 0.46 7.74
4 Nolan Ryan 367 332.2 5.46 118 1974 27 CAL 42 41 22 16 .579 0 2.89 2.98 0.49 9.93
5 Sam McDowell 192 214.2 6.41 113 1971 28 CLE 35 31 13 17 .433 1 3.40 4.17 0.92 8.05
6 Russ Ortiz 164 207.2 5.42 113 1999 25 SFG 33 33 18 9 .667 0 3.81 4.95 1.04 7.11
7 Bo Belinsky 145 187.1 5.86 109 1962 25 LAA 33 31 10 11 .476 1 3.56 4.06 0.58 6.97
8 Jose de Jesus 118 181.2 6.34 107 1991 26 PHI 31 29 10 9 .526 1 3.42 4.24 0.35 5.85
9 Randy Johnson 241 210.1 6.16 105 1992 28 SEA 31 31 12 14 .462 0 3.77 3.61 0.56 10.31
10 Chuck Estrada 160 212.0 5.60 104 1961 23 BAL 33 31 15 9 .625 0 3.69 4.24 0.81 6.79
11 Randy Johnson 228 201.1 6.79 103 1991 27 SEA 33 33 13 10 .565 0 3.98 4.00 0.67 10.19
12 Ed Correa 189 202.1 5.60 102 1986 20 TEX 32 32 12 14 .462 0 4.23 3.78 0.67 8.41
13 Nolan Ryan 186 198.0 6.00 102 1975 28 CAL 28 28 14 12 .538 0 3.45 3.67 0.59 8.45
14 Dennis Blair 82 163.1 5.84 102 1975 21 MON 30 27 8 15 .348 0 3.80 4.70 0.77 4.52
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2014.

An ERA+ of 100 is average, so it's not surprising that nearly half the names on the list are close to that mark. The most recent player to accomplish this feat was Russ Ortiz with the Giants in 1999. Three players in the table (Don Schwall, Jose de Jesus, and Dennis Blair) actually walked more players than they struck out. And Nolan Ryan (three) and Randy Johnson (two) appear in the table multiple times. Bart Johnson, in 178 innings in 1971, started 16 games and also managed to rack up 14 saves.

It should go without saying that it's extremely difficult to pitch well while walking so many batters. And Ubaldo Jimenez is no Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson.

3 comments:

Musicturtle said...

What pops out to me is the 299 innings Ryan threw in '77. Pitchers regularly threw for over 300 innings in the '70s and had lasting careers. How times have changed.

Jon Shepherd said...

In the 70s, there were often black holes in a batting order and you could pitch to contact. Back then an average MLB fastball was around 85 mph. Now, it is about 92 mph just for starters.

Times have changed quite a bit.

Also, pitchers did not regularly throw over 300 IP. A few pitchers did.

Liam said...

According to FIP and xFIP (and fWAR), Jimenez has actually been better than Miguel Gonzalez this year despite a ERA differential of 1.03. Despite the walks, Jimenez' high K% and Gonzo's astronomical HR% give him Jimenez edge. I agree with Buck's decision to stick Jimenez in the pen in favor of Gonzo, but the stats would seem to suggest otherwise, no?

It should also be mentioned that Gonzo has outperformed his FIP and xFIP by about a run each over 390 career innings. If this out-performance is deemed sustainable, the most interesting question of all becomes 'why don't the peripherals apply to him?'