08 April 2013

Paper Orioles: Win Projections on 4/8/13

This article is an archived post from Baltimore Sports and Life and can be accessed here.

Paper Orioles: Win Projections on 4/8/13

Each year I use a variety of different win projection tools to keep track of the Orioles’ progress over the year.  The point of this is not to chain yourself to  certain methodology or have any belief in the whole “why even play the games” silly mantra people love to stick to men made of straw.  The point is to give you a rough estimate of where the team is and the general direction we may expect the team to go in.  You will see that in the more volatile systems that the initial projections can swing greatly from week to week.

All models used are forward looking models and accept all game results prior to running.

The systems:
mJS (Jon Shepherd model) – This model looks forward to the remaining games on the schedule to develop weighted game scenarios based on opponent frequency and talent levels on different teams.  Talent levels are determined by using the ZIPS projection system and my own expectation on playing time.  Wins are determined by expressing talent level in terms of neutral team win expectations and then applying a log5 function for specific teams.  I do not change the ZIPS projection, so this model is only informed on the current season by accumulated wins and losses only.  That information does not affect the actual projection of remaining games.
PWE (Pythagorean Win Expectation) – This model uses runs scored and runs given from the season to date in order to project what will happen in the future.  The generalized equation is: Expected Winning Percentage: (runs scored^2) / (runs scored^2 + runs given^2)
mBP (Baseball Prospectus‘ model) – This model is run by Baseball Prospectus.  They use their own projection model, PECOTA, and, I assume, actually account for in season performance.
Parcells (Bill Parcells model) – This model assumes that the season will continue on as determined by your current season record.  As Parcells once said, You are what your record says you are.  Of course, we know this not to be true as a definitive rule, but it will be treated as such in this model.
fWAR – This model uses the accumulated team fWAR to project future results.
Additionally, I will also include a league-wide season ending win expectation for the entire league as well.  Remember, this early in the season we will see some strange numbers at times.

Expected Wins by the Baltimore Orioles using Five Projections (4/8/2013)

mJS PWE mBP Parcells fWAR
4/1/2013 72.6 81.0 74.9 81.0 81.0
4/8/2013 73.5 97.1 75.3 81.0 115.9

As I currently have my system set up, I have “Games Back” for mJS, mBP, and fWAR.  They are 11.0, 10.7, and 3.6, respectively.

AL Final Standings by fWAR
Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Red Sox 4 2.7 119.5 East
Orioles 3 2.6 115.9 WC1
Rangers 4 2.5 114.3 West
Royals 3 2.1 102.9 Central
ChiSox 4 1.9 98.7 WC2
Athletics 5 1.9 92.0
Indians 3 1.5 87.3
Twins 4 1.2 80.5
Tigers 3 1.2 79.5
Rays 3 0.7 66.5
Mariners 3 0.7 63.5
Yankees 2 0.5 60.3
Blue Jays 2 0.5 60.3
Angels 2 0.5 60.3
Astros 1 -0.8 25.5

NL Final Standings by fWAR
Team Wins fWAR Final Rank
Rockies 5 3 128.3 West
Dbacks 5 2.9 125.7 WC1
Dodgers 4 2.5 114.3 WC2
Braves 5 2.4 112.7 East
Mets 4 2.4 111.7
Reds 4 2.1 103.9 Central
Giants 3 1.7 92.5
Nationals 4 1.1 77.9
Cardinals 3 0.8 69.1
Phillies 2 0.8 68.1
Cubs 2 0.1 49.9
Brewers 1 0.1 48.9
Marlins 1 -0.2 41.1
Pirates 1 -0.7 28.1
Padres 1 -1.3 12.5

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