30 April 2013

Chris Davis's Improved Plate Discipline

Right now, Chris Davis has a slash line of .349/.438/.756 with a wOBA of .485 (which is third in baseball behind Bryce Harper and Carlos Santana). Since the Orioles are only 25 games into the season and Davis only has 105 plate appearances (PA), it's too early to suggest that he's going to continue mashing at this prodigious rate (or something close to it).

However, there are things about Davis's hot start to the season that go a bit beyond the "small sample size" qualifier. Per FanGraphs, some offensive statistics don't take a full season -- or longer -- to become more reliable. Some of the relevant improvements for Davis -- swing percentage (50 PA) and contact rate (100 PA) -- can be explored now, though we haven't quite reached the point of examining strikeout rate (150 PA) or walk rate (200 PA) just yet (two areas in which Davis has shown tremendous improvement).

So let's take a look at Davis's progress in the plate discipline department from 2011 (when he joined the Orioles) to now.

Season
PA
wOBA
O-Swing%
Swing%
Contact%
2011
210
.309
41.5
55.8
68.6
2012
562
.352
38.8
53.7
71.0
2013
105
.485
31.8
47.1
75.8

(O-Swing% = percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the zone; Swing% = total percentage of pitches a batter swings at; and Contact% = total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches.)

Those are terrifying numbers for opposing pitchers. Davis has always had immense power, but previously he chased too many pitches outside the strikezone while not making enough contact. Now, he's chasing fewer pitches, swinging less overall, but making more contact and doing a ton of damage when he makes contact.

His plate discipline probably won't continue to be this good, but there's no reason it won't still be better than last season. And improved pitch selectivity and knowledge of the strikezone should mean better walk and strikeout rates, which can be examined further along in the season.

I don't think even the most optimistic of Orioles fans thought Davis would be this good. But he's a much better hitter than he was in 2011, and it's a whole lot of fun to watch him hit right now.

1 comment:

ricardo said...

This is a very nice entry. Congrats! Chris' improvement is one of the biggest reasons the O's offense has been so good. Hope he keeps on.