L.J. Hoes Vs. Xavier Avery

Two of Baseball America's Orioles top ten prospects spent most of 2012 at Norfolk. L.J. Hoes (#6) and Xavier Avery (#7) are outfielders who made their AAA debuts in 2012, are two months apart in age, and whose prospect status is driven by projection rather than performance. During a rain delay in a Tides game, the discussion in the press box turned to the question of which one you'd rather have, Hoes or Avery. At the time, my answer was Avery; but now I think my answer would be Hoes.

I first chose Avery because I believed Avery had both the higher ceiling and the higher floor. Avery is the superior athlete with more speed and defensive value than Hoes. So far, Avery has also shown improving strike-zone judgement, and more power potential than Hoes. If Avery develops to his full potential — admittedly a longshot — his ceiling is minor star. On the other hand, even if Avery doesn't develop any further at all, his floor is still pinch-runner/ defensive replacement/ September callup. While I thought L.J. Hoes would probably turn out to be a better player than Avery, I also thought Hoes' ceiling would be lower than Avery's and that Hoes lacked Avery's specialist floor.

Hoes is limited to left field. When I made my first decision, I believed that, although Hoes had a chance to be a consistent .300 hitter, Hoes wouldn't have the power to be a major-league left fielder. And because Hoes was defensively limited to left field, it was hard to see Hoes as a bench player. I believed that Hoes would be nothing more than a 4-A player, a Triple-A star not quite good enough for the majors. So, even though I believed that Hoes would ultimately turn out to be better than Avery overall, I would rather have Avery.

But after watching Hoes for three months, I've changed my mind. I started by thinking about players who were comparable to Avery and Hoes. An obvious comp to Avery is Felix Pie. Both are athletic, left-handed hitting center fielders with unrefined skills. Although Pie has been a major-league bench player for a few seasons, he also was a consistent .300 hitter in the minor leagues, which Avery has not been. It was harder to come up with a comp for Hoes, a consistent .300 hitter with doubles power and limited defensive skills. The best I could come up with Martin Prado, a second baseman in the minors but has moved positions in the majors, first to left field and now likely to third base. Prado has had three strong seasons, with one top-10 and one top-20 MVP finish. If Prado can be a major-league regular for a contending team, so too can Hoes.

But there's more. There's always been a hope that Hoes will develop more power as he matures. And there's a positive example for that — Ryne Sandberg. Here's a crude comparison of Sandberg and Hoes:

Sandberg
Age	Level	Triple Crown	OBP	SP
18	Rookie	.311-1-23	.390	.421
19	Low A	.247-4-47	.328	.334
20	AA	.310-11-79	.403	.469
21	AAA	.293-9-62	.352	.397
22	Majors	.271-7-54	.312	.372
Hoes
Age	Level	Triple Crown	OBP	SP
18	Cmplx	.308-1-18	.416	.390
19	Low A	.260-2-47	.299	.318
20	SS/High A/AA	.290-4-50	.383	.397
21	High A/AA	.285-9-71	.354	.390
22	AA/AAA	.287-5-54	.372	.388

Hoes and Sandberg were similar types of offensive players, granting that Sandberg was generally one level ahead of Hoes at the same age and had an extremely good age-20 season. At age 24 Sandberg exploded with an MVP 1984, marked by an increase in power. His slugging percentage jumped from .351 to .520, and from 1984-1992 Sandberg had six seasons with slugging percentages of .480 or greater. This gives me reason to believe that Hoes, too, may develop enough power to be a viable regular in left field.

Sandberg is in the Hall of Fame, in large part because his offense was supported by Gold-Glove caliber defense at second base. I'm not claiming that Hoes will be a Hall of Famer or a consistent MVP candidate; he doesn't have Sandberg's glove. But Ryne Sandberg's bat was good enough to be an all-star left fielder. Hoes' bat doesn't have to develop as much as Sandberg's for Hoes to be a viable left-field regular. I now think there's reason to believe that Hoes might develop enough to be a solid left fielder.

And that's why I now would rather have L.J. Hoes than Xavier Avery.

Orioles Depend on Nats to Improve TV Deal

It was reported this past fall that the Nationals requested their annual payment from MASN be increased from 29 MM a year to 100 MM a year.  Supposedly, the powers that be at MASN countered with 37 MM.  That set in motion MLB trying to broker a deal with Fox to purchase MASN with, again supposedly, the goal of splitting the markets from each other.  This is not the first time or second or probably third time a group came forward to purchase MASN, but this is the first time that I am aware that MLB was involved.

Below is a graph devised from Wendy Thrum's work at FanGraphs as well as a couple things I have been told.  I was unable to find anyone who could give a decent approximation of the Giants deal.





It is actually interesting to think that perhaps the Orioles depend on the Nationals to increase their own payroll by having to match whatever is allotted for the annual TV payout.  It would not be surprising if the total value of this region is about 120-140 MM with more of the money leaning to the DC Market.

Turning the Orioles into a 2013 Contender (Strain)

While it seems to be the minority opinion, I actually believe in quite a bit of the Orioles 2012 team, and I think there will be some natural additions assuming health, that they didn't have last year which should make them a little better in 2013. As has been beaten to death around here, I am a believer that Nate McLouth isn't a couple month fluke, that he is back to being healthy and you will see closer to his normal lines than the 2010-2011 lines that people want to assume are just part of his game. A healthy Nick Markakis will have a big impact on this team which won't have to trot guys like Lew Ford out on a nightly basis. Nolan Reimold might have the most productive bat on the team, if he can only stay healthy enough to prove it. Second base should be greatly improved, either through Alexi Casilla's speed and defensive contribution, or just from the assumption that it can't be as bad as it was last season. Third base solidified by Manny Machado for a full season should have a major impact defensively, which during the sub-par play of 2012, was a major reason for poor results in the first half. Hammel being healthy for the full season would have a stabilizing influence on the young rotation.

Of course all of these things are assuming best cases and hoping that everything aligns just like 2012 did as well. While there were a ton of things that went right last season, there were still a good number of things that went wrong as I noted above, that in a normal year should have an improvement on the team as a whole. That being said, this would be a rather boring post if I said they shouldn't change a thing and hope for the best, so with that in mind, I think they should:

1. Sign 1B/DH Lance Berkman. I know it's a long shot, as he's thinking about retiring and spending more time at home, but could be a great insurance policy for Chris Davis at a low commitment level. A one year deal splitting time at 1B/DH for $6-8m could be a boom or bust signing with him coming off an injury, but the upside of a guy that can still put up an .800+ OPS and give you great OBP is probably worth it at this point. Won't take the commitment LaRoche would, but could give similar production if he's healthy. I would give him 2 years if that is what it took, but wouldn't go more than that as it ties up your DH spot.While I can't say I'm the biggest fan of the O's approach of adding cheap depth and hoping, but if they are going to do it anyway, this isn't a bad way to go.

2. Play the game.

Yes, I know a lot of people will laugh and say there is no way this team competes this year taking last year's team and swapping Berkman for Mark Reynolds, but I don't know that I can clearly say that, and I think they should be given a chance to prove they can't do it instead of making them prove that they can. I think in a down year in the division, with two WC spots, that this team could contend in 2013. There are a lot of question marks, but there are question marks with all the contenders right now. Toronto looks great on paper, but has had a major overhaul and has some injury concerns in the rotation. TB has some of the best pitching in the game, but the offense is lagging behind. NYY is old and is tightening the purse strings, and BOS is trying to retool. BAL has questions more along the lines of can players repeat last season and are these young players truly developing or was last year a fluke?

1. Markakis- RF
2. McLouth/Reimold- LF
3. Jones- CF
4. Berkman- DH
5. Wieters-C
6. Davis- 1B
7. Machado- 3B
8. Hardy- SS
9. Casilla- 2B

Teagarden- C
Flaherty/Valencia- INF
Roberts- 2B*
Reimold/McLouth- OF
Betemit- DH

That's a slightly more balanced lineup from last year, assuming health.
 The pitching staff is more fluid

Hammel
Chen
Tillman
Gonzalez
Britton

With guys like Hunter/Arrieta/Matusz/S.Johnson and Bundy waiting their turn or working out of the pen.  With an average player age around 27.5, there is still room for development in a lot of these players, so I can see this seeing going really well or really poorly based on development of key young players. Gonzalez, Tillman, Wieters, Machado Britton, Bundy and Reimold are very important to the team this year, and health and development needs to be on track for them to compete.

As for the basis of this series, I think they can compete in 2013 by adding one more solid veteran bat to the middle of the lineup and by staying healthy. I also happen to feel like the sexy move, to build a package around Bundy, Schoop and the rest of the farm system for Stanton would help the team of course, but I expect Bundy to make a significant contribution to the rotation this year and the trade of what we would gain in Stanton over a healthy Reimold in the OF is less than what we would lose from Bundy after he makes it up in May or June. I also feel that Britton back and healthy will produce more than a veteran pending FA stop gap and is better use of money than spending for a Saunders or Lohse, since I don't think either would do very well in the AL East over a full season. This approach will also leave payroll space to make a move during the season if injury or poor performance warrants one.

Relying on Reimold

by Matt Kremnitzer

Krem's Sports | @mattkremnitzer

The Orioles have not made a major acquisition this offseason, and it’s not likely that they’re going to. They’ve been frequently mentioned as a potential landing spot for free agents, such as Nick Swisher, Adam LaRoche, and a few others. But for whatever reason, they haven’t landed a marquee free agent. In fact, their only notable free agent signing was simply bringing back Nate McLouth for one year and $2 million.

Similarly to last year, Dan Duquette and the O’s have made several minor moves. They claimed Alexi Casilla off waivers from the Twins. They traded Robert Andino to the Mariners for outfielder Trayvon Robinson. They acquired Danny Valencia from the Red Sox for cash considerations. And they also signed a bunch of minor league and Independent League free agents, including Daniel McCutchen, Conor Jackson, Daniel Schlereth, and Travis Ishikawa. Meanwhile, the O’s also non-tendered Mark Reynolds, who later signed a one-year deal with Cleveland.

There is still time for the O’s to make a free agent signing or two, or to put together a trade in which they package some of their young pitching for some offensive help, but it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that that’s going to happen. So instead, the O’s are moving forward with mostly the same team. Some fans are just fine with that strategy, and some are not. I’m not in favor of simply making a move just to make one, but I also thought the O’s could have upgraded their roster without necessarily breaking the bank. But that is a post for a later time.

More than any other position, I’m intrigued by what the O’s did (and did not do) in left field. They could have signed Swisher or dealt for another outfielder, but they brought McLouth back. And while McLouth may end up playing every day (which I hope doesn’t happen), one of the reasons I think they re-signed him is because of Nolan Reimold.

Reimold, 29, first debuted with the Orioles in 2009, but he’s been unable to stay healthy since. In 104 games in 2009, Reimold posted a .279/.365/.466 batting line that showcased his ability to both get on base and hit for power. His 11.4 walk percentage that season was also the best he’s posted in the majors. Unfortunately, he was sidelined in September with an Achilles tendon injury that required surgery. That Achilles injury affected Reimold into the beginning of the 2010 season, when he hit .205/.302/.337 before being demoted to Norfolk in the middle of May. He returned in September but wasn’t much better, and his final 2010 batting line was .207/.282/.328 in 131 plate appearances.

After an injury to Luke Scott and Felix Pie playing like Felix Pie, Reimold got another shot in 2011. He first appeared that season in May and stayed relatively injury-free, playing in 87 games and hitting .247/.328/.453. He rode that momentum (sort of) into the 2012 season when he started in left field on opening day. In 16 games and 69 plate appearances in April, Reimold batted .313/.333/.627 and managed to homer five times in six games in a stretch from April 13 to April 20. But yet again, Reimold had an injury concern. He was eventually diagnosed with a herniated disk and needed surgery to repair the problem. He didn’t play again in 2012 after April 30.

Reimold has power (career .455 slugging percentage), and while his career .338 on-base percentage isn’t great, he will take walks (9.7 BB%). He also has pretty good speed, which is something useful for a relatively slow team like the Orioles. He’s not a very good outfielder though (-10.6 career UZR) and sometimes struggles to get proper reads on fly balls. But, still, there’s never been any secret that most of Reimold’s value comes from his bat, and that’s what the Orioles need from him the most.

Reimold’s ideal spot on this team may be designated hitter, but it may not be possible to simply slot him there every day with Wilson Betemit and Chris Davis around. Both of those guys may get some time at first base (primarily Davis), but they’ll almost certainly DH some, too. Matt Wieters will also occasionally DH, as will Brian Roberts if he’s able to stay healthy and resemble the kind of player he was a couple seasons ago. And there’s nothing wrong with having some extra lineup flexibility (something the 2011 Orioles didn’t have with Vladimir Guerrero).

It’s also worth noting that unlike McLouth, Reimold doesn’t have any drastic platoon issue:

Reimold vs. RHP: .263/.339/.465 (595 plate appearances)

Reimold vs. LHP: .258/.336/.438 (321 plate appearances)

Here are McLouth’s splits:

McLouth vs. RHP: .257/.346/.447 (2220 plate appearances)

McLouth vs. LHP: .223/.303/.346 (762 plate appearances)

That’s a big difference. Platooning Reimold with McLouth in left field – obviously, Reimold vs. left-handed pitching and McLouth vs. right-handed pitching – while also giving Reimold a shot to DH as well at times, might be the best way to utilize both their talents (McLouth is the better left fielder with a career -1.4 UZR in LF) and keep Reimold healthy.

The O’s (so far) have opted not to significantly upgrade the lineup. If Reimold is able to stay on the field and off the disabled list, that will be a big help. But there is no guarantee he’ll be able to do that, and having McLouth as the full-time left fielder is far from ideal.

Turning the Orioles into a 2013 Contender (Shepherd)

This entry is one is a short series by the different writers here at the Depot.  The others will be linked in the space below when they come online:
Steph Diorio
Daniel Moroz
Jeremy Strain

The point of this column is to come to terms with how at this late date in the off season that the Orioles can be a playoff contender.  The short and easy answer for me would be incredible health, the emergence of the starting rotation solution from last season, and an offensive explosion from Matt Wieters and Manny Machado.  Perhaps even easier would be to say that this team is already a playoff contender having made it last year with essentially the same squad.  The former is kind of a boring article and the latter is something I simply do not believe, so I will be going on the route of a series of moves that would make the team far more competitive.

As I have it now, projected talent levels in the AL East look like this to me:

	EdG Wins
Orioles	85
Red Sox	85
Yankees	85.5
Rays	91.5
Blue Jays	90

That is not really an estimation of the final win tallies because of the unbalanced schedule, but it does give a reasonable projection as to the differences in talent levels.  From this napkin scratch, I am taking on the assumption that this team needs to improve by five wins worth of talent.  Currently, the expected payroll is 86.8 MM and I assume that the team could move the needle up to 100 MM.  So, I need to find a relatively realistic way to improve this team by five wins with only 13.2 MM to spend.

The three biggest names left in free agency are Adam LaRoche, Michael Bourn, and Kyle Lohse.  We used LaRoche as a construct for an argument as to whether his addition would be good for the Orioles.  I concluded, nay.  LaRoche is a solid average first baseman with a decent flame out probability due to his age.  I could not see giving him a three year deal at market rate along with letting go of a draft pick.  Michael Bourn is an excellent centerfielder who has defense and speed.  I think, for him, those two tools will age well for him.  However, I do not think signing him could be easily fit under the payroll limit and Adam Jones is unlikely to be incredibly happy about moving over to left field to accommodate Bourn.  Finally, Kyle Lohse is probably a 3-4 WAR improvement over whoever the Orioles slot into the fifth slot of the rotation.  However, I think better value can be found in a way that would not clog up the payroll.

I have decided on four moves to make the Orioles a contender: three trades and a free agent signing.

Free Agency

Luke Scott, DH

As a first move, this is not flashy.  However, if healed up, Scott has the ability to provide plus performance at a minimal cost.  His power still looks strong with an ISO above .200 and knocking out about 15% of his fly balls over the fence.  Scott also has the flexibility to stand, if not play in a pinch, at first base and left field.  He could potentially be an improvement on Mark Reynolds bat and cost perhaps at most 4 MM on a one year deal.  If possible, perhaps a 1 year 3MM deal with an option of 1 year and 8MM or a 1MM buyout.  Another alternative here would be someone like Travis Hafner.  Acquiring either of these batters, will be a push win-wise due to trades mentioned below.

Trades

Jim Johnson, RP and J.J. Hardy, SS
for
Rick Porcello, SP and Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF

This first move incorporates rumors that Porcello is on the market, the Tigers' desire for a closer and their need for a better infield, and their openness to dealing out one of their top prospects.  For the Orioles, they can replace Jim Johnson with Tommy Hunter.  Hunter's new found velocity and his ability to do far better coming out of the pen as opposed to the dugout means the Orioles have a very cheap and ready closer in their midst.  Pedro Strop might be a decent backup option, assuming his control issues do not magnify.  Hardy is difficult to let go as he is a true all star level shortstop.  However, Machado makes him replaceable and the team needs to save some cash to fit everyone in who will be coming in on trades.

Rick Porcello has three years of team control left and is thought of as generally underachieving in Detroit.  However, if you replace the below average Detroit defense with an above average one, he gives up about a dozen fewer hits which would result in a sub 4.00 ERA.  That is worth about 3 WAR and would be a 2 win improvement over what the Orioles could likely fill in at the five slot.  Castellanos means nothing to the 2013 Orioles, but gives them something to look at in the future at third base or in left field.

In total, the Orioles will be taking on 4.7 MM in salary with Porcello and getting rid of 13.9 MM by sending out Johnson and Hardy.  With Scott's 4 MM, it is a net loss of 5.2 MM or 18.4 MM left under the budget.

Brian Matusz, SP, Zach Britton, SP, and Wilson Betemit, DH
for
Gavin Floyd, SP

The White Sox are trying to acquiring a left handed hitter and have dangled Gavin Floyd, once again.  The White Sox have talked about Floyd a great deal in the past, but have never gone through with trading him.  As such, he is now in the last year of his current deal, set to earn 9.5 MM, and is coming off his worst performance as a starter.  Chicago's chip has decreased a great deal in value.  Still, Floyd looks like a decent bet to be a 3 WAR pitcher who would be 2 wins better than what the Orioles currently have.

Wilson Betemit, assuming he has a healthy wrist, is a plus hitter against right handed pitching.  He has nothing to off in the field or against southpaws, but he does provide a very strong and stable platoon bat for a very low price.  The White Sox could also play the odds and hope Brian Matusz can start even though Cellular Field is a launching pad.  Balancing out that risk though is the groundball pitcher Britton, who also has quite a bit of promise.  The truth is, this deal could really go south on the Orioles with both Matusz and Britton doing well and having to pay for Scott or Hafner to replace Betemit.

The Orioles save 2.75 MM here while taking on 9.5 MM in salary.  This leaves 11.65 MM left to spend.

Dylan Bundy, SP and Nicky Delmonico, 1B/2B
for
Chase Headley, 3B

This is probably the move that leaves a great number of people saying no.  A key part of this move would have to be getting Headley to sign a long term deal, but, maybe not.  Chase Headley provides above average defense at third base, takes a walk, and somehow hit home runs last year.  I don't think a permanent move from Petco would result in him being a 30 home run hitter, but it is not a stretch to think he could be a .350 OBP hitter with 20 long balls annually and a good glove.  That would be worth about 4 WAR which would be an improvement of about one win over the Hardy/Machado side of the infield.

Bundy simply does not impact the team this season.  At most, he would see a late season reintroduction to the team.  In the future, he could be worth a great deal to the team, but it remains to be seen if he can (a) fulfill his potential and (b) that the team will be good enough that it will matter whether he fulfills his potential.  If 2013 is so important with the shambles of the Red Sox and Yankees, then it might make sense to wave goodbye to the future.  Delmonico is a bit more of a lottery ticket.  The bat looks very sound, but he currently is without a position.  If he has to shift to first, it puts a lot of pressure on his bat.

In this deal, the Orioles take on approximately 8.3 MM in salary, leaving 3.35 MM under the assumed 100 MM cap.

Conclusion
The above moves leave the team with the following lineup:

Nick Markakis, RF
Manny Machado, SS
Chase Headley, 3B
Adam Jones, CF
Chris Davis, 1B
Matt Wieters, C
Luke Scott, DH
Nolan Reimold, LF
Alexi Casilla, 2B

With a bench of Taylor Teagarden, Ryan Flaherty, Nate McLouth, and Danny Valencia.

The rotation would shake out as:

Jason Hammel
Wei-Yin Chen
Gavin Floyd
Rick Porcello
Miguel Gonzalez / Chris Tillman

To me, this looks like a 90 win talent team with Headley marginally improving the lineup and Porcello/Floyd improving the rotation.  The remaining 3.35 MM could be put to good use to help shore up the team performance at the trade deadline.  The team lost one of the best prospects in the game in Dylan Bundy, but was able to pick up a solid positional prospect in Nick Castellanos.  All in all, if Dan Duquette was able to and did the moves above, I'd have little to complain about.  However, publicity-wise...it might be a tough sell.

Sunday Comics: Happy 2013!

2012 was certainly a good year in Baltimore. There's no denying that.

Now we just have to hope 2013 matches up to it nicely since there was no apocalypse.

Have a safe and happy New Year! (Seriously, be safe. Don't do anything stupid involving alcohol and cars. I love you guys. <3)