Where Are They Now -- the 2012 Tides Home Opener Roster (Pitchers)

One of the purposes of a Triple-A team is to supply their affiliated team with reinforcements during the course of the long season. In 2012, the Norfolk Tides did supply the Orioles with many key pieces, such as outfielder Nate McLouth and starting pitchers Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez. But not all of the 77 players who appeared on the Tides’ active roster in 2012 were as useful as McLouth, Tillman, or Gonzalez. Although I don't have the Tides 2012 Opening Day roster — they opened 2012 on the road — over the next two weeks I'll review the Tides' roster for their April 9 home opener. This week, I'll go over the pitchers.

Brad Bergesen — Bergesen began 2012 in the Norfolk starting rotation, and in fact was their opening-day starting pitcher. As other starting pitchers joined the team, he was moved to the bullpen. When the Orioles tried to remove Bergesen from the forty-man roster, the Diamondbacks claimed him and he pitched in nineteen big-league games. The Diamondbacks released him in November.

Jason Berken — Berken, the Tides starting pitcher in their home opener, spent almost all of 2012 in the Norfolk starting rotation. He led the Tides in starts and innings pitched. He had one disastrous relief inning in Baltimore, and after the minor-league season was claimed on waivers by the Cubs. He made four starts for the Cubs and was outrighted to AAA after the season.

Dana Eveland – Eveland bounced up and down all of 2012, making 14 starts for Norfolk and appearing in 14 games (2 starts) for the Orioles, mostly in a mop-up role. He was granted free agency after the season.

Willie Eyre – Eyre had been a successful pickup at the end of 2011, and made the Tides bullpen out of spring training. Unfortunately, Eyre could only manage a 7.92 ERA in his 25 Tides innings and was released in June. The Rangers signed him, and he pitched fairly well for their AAA team. He’s now a minor-league free agent.

Chris George – After two modestly successful seasons as a swingman for the Tides, former Kansas City Royal George was on the Tides’ roster at the start of the season. After 4 games, 8 innings with an 11.25 ERA, George was released at the end of April and didn’t catch on anywhere.

Steve Johnson – Johnson began 2012 as a spot starter/long relief pitcher with the Tides, but after promotions, injuries, and roster moves became a fulltime starting pitcher. He pitched very well for the Tides – much better than he had in 2011 – and went 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA in twelve big-league appearances. He's in the mix for the 2012 Orioles' staff.

Jon Link – Link started 2012 as one of the Tides’ closers, but lost that job and was released in early June despite pitching fairly well. He was signed by Miami and was declared a free agent after the season.

Pat Neshek – Recovering from an arm injury, Neshek eventually took over the closer role for the Tides and led the team in saves. Neshek was sold to Oakland in early August and became a useful member of the Athletics’ bullpen, posting a 1.37 ERA in 24 games. He’s currently on Oakland’s 40-man roster, having signed a contract for $900,000.

Zach Phillips – Phillips was the Tides’ primary left-handed setup man to Pat Neshek until Neshek was sold to Oakland; then he became the Tides’ closer for the last month. He led the Tides in pitching appearances and gave up only one home run in 54 innings. In addition, Phillips pitched six scattered innings for the 2012 Orioles. After the season, he was declared a free agent and has signed a minor-league contract with the Marlins.

Miguel Socolovich – Another Tides middle-to-long relief pitcher, Socolovich went 4-0, 1.90 in 28 Tides relief appearances. He had two brief stints with the Orioles before being claimed by the Cubs on waivers in late August. After a few appearances with the Cubs, he was removed from their roster and is currently a free agent.

Chris Tillman – Tillman started 2012 in the Tides’ rotation. He pitched better and was recalled to Baltimore on July 4. The fourth time was the charm, as Tillman became a reliable rotation starter, going 9-3, 2.93 with the Orioles. He starts 2013 as a likely member of the Orioles’ rotation.

Oscar Villarreal – Villarreal was one of the two Tides to spend all of 2012 at Norfolk, generally as the right-handed setup man. Villarreal was effective in that role with a 2.88 ERA in 68 innings. He was declared a free agent after the season and signed a minor-league contract with the Red Sox.

Dontrelle Willis – The Orioles signed Willis to a minor-league contract with the hope that he would become a left-handed relief specialist. Willis made a couple of ineffective appearances, was put on the disabled list, and then left the team, declaring that he wanted to be a starting pitcher. Eventually, the Orioles agreed to that and he rejoined the Tides. On June 27, he made a start at Columbus and was hit hard. After that game, he announced his retirement and so far has stuck to it.

Will trading JJ Hardy improve the Orioles?

There has been a general feeling from many national writers as well as those in the fan base that moving J.J. Hardy (who is currently under contract for two years at seven million a piece) could help improve the team in the present as well as in the future.  The opportunity presenting itself is one where Manny Machado is able to shift over to shortstop and then back filling the third base position.  The need there would be to get someone who could play at third for a couple seasons while Jonathan Schoop develops into what is hoped to be at least a league average third baseman.

A major problem is finding someone who is worth as much as JJ Hardy is:

	Po.	wRC+	Defense	xWAR
JJ Hardy	SS	92	10	3.7
Manny Machado	SS	96	0	3.0
	3B	96	10	3.0

The above numbers are somewhat optimistic.  The offensive and defensive components are not what are optimistic.  What is optimistic is assuming that JJ Hardy can be worth 3.7 WAR because it is projected to 150 games.  That is something Hardy has done twice in his seven years of service time.  More likely, the team could expect something more in the neighborhood of 2.8 to 3.2 WAR as Hardy may play somewhere around 125 games.

Unfortunately with the scope limited to 3B, that number is not projected to be matched by anyone who is available in free agency.

	Age	wRC+	Defense	xWAR
Miguel Cairo	39	77	0	0.4
Mark DeRosa	38	68	-5	-0.8
Chone Figgins	35	72	5	0.5
Alberto Gonzalez	30	54	15	0.0
Jack Hannahan	33	74	10	1.2
Orlando Hudson	35	85	-5	0.6
Brandon Inge	36	81	10	1.8
Adam Kennedy	37	82	0	0.8
Jose Lopez	29	66	0	-0.5
Casey McGehee	30	72	5	0.5
Placido Polanco	37	75	10	1.3
Mark Reynolds	29	108	-30	0.0
Scott Rolen	38	87	5	1.7
Brandon Snyder	27	103	-15	1.1
Ian Stewart	27	68	5	0.2
Ty Wigginton	35	89	-15	-0.1
Kevin Youkilis	34	105	-5	2.2

The best figure on the list is Kevin Youkilis' 2.2 WAR, but he has been hobbled by injuries over the past four seasons.  He may be putting in anywhere between 50 to 120 games.  The third best target is Scott Rolen, who is also a major risk.  The general take home message here is that basically all options are rather poor ones with major question marks.  The Phillies when presented with these options chose to go with Michael Young, who was the worst full time player in baseball last season and someone who has never looked comfortable at third base.  They are banking on him improving upon his defense and showing something more similar to his 2010 season as opposed to his 2011 season.  My choice would have been different as many of these options would have been cheaper than the 6 MM the Phillies are paying along with the two decent relief pitchers.  Guys like Figgins, Hannahan, Inge, Polanco, and Gonzalez might be decent pick ups.  Though, to be honest, none of these solutions have the potential upside of Young.

That upside is wishing though.  A common thought process risk assessors go through is attaching themselves to a desired outcome.  That is, if you want something then you are more likely to forgive misfortune than recognize good luck.  It is a concept I have mentioned often this off season.  That people are more likely to forgive something like Nick Markakis' injury than understand the good fortune of something like Miguel Gonzalez' performance.

Anyway, bringing this discussion back to the main point of the article...can JJ Hardy be adequately replaced for what he brings to the team?  Highly unlikely.  The Orioles would need to be more creative than simply dealing Hardy for prospects and filling in third base via free agency.  The talent simply does not appear to be available.  Perhaps, signing Brandon Inge along with finding a +1 improvement on an established position (e.g., 1B or DH) might be a solution and one that is useful if pieces are also acquired that will be of value for future seasons. 

The remaining teams most active on the shortstop market are the Tigers, A's, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, and Yankees.  Targets would be players capable of providing a 3 WAR value which would provide the needed increase of one of the established positions.  The focus on a Tigers deal would be for Rick Porcello who would likely be a +1 or more increase upon whoever the team trots out in the 5 slot in the rotation.  For the A's, that target would be Josh Reddick.  He has an average bat and plus defense.  With the Diamondbacks, the likely player to acquire would be Justin Upton.  The Red Sox' Jacoby Ellsbury would be the target with that team.  The Yankees?  I see no opportunities there.  Of course, identifying a target does not mean it will be easy or even possible to engage these teams on these players...though trade rumors have been mentioned for each of these targets.

In the end, it will be a challenge to deal Hardy while maintaining value on the big league club.  Even more difficult will be to maintain that value while improving the team in the future.  Porcello and, maybe, Reddick would be the two targets that might bring back talent in addition to the player mentioned.  However, that certainly is not a guaranty.

Arrivals and Departures (12/10/12)

A short primer on options was provided in an earlier post found here.  If you have any further questions about this issue or other baseball related issues, feel free to email us at CamdenDepot@gmail.com.

The Winter Meetings in Nashville began with great hope.  The Orioles announced they were looking for a middle of the order hitter who would play at first, left, or designated hitter.  They were also mildly interested in upgrading their pitching rotation.  These moves were suggested as coming by trade.  However, trades are a rather unpredictable ephemeral quality and nothing much went down in Nashville for Baltimore.

Transactions from last week:

December 5, 2012 - Signed Nate McLouth to a 1 year, 2 MM contract
December 6, 2012 - Selected TJ McFarland in the Rule 5 draft from Cleveland

First, there is still a considerable amount of time left in the offseason with a considerable number of players on the free agent market and being bandied about in trade rumors.  There is still time and Duquette, himself, said "Sometimes [talks] come together, sometimes they can take a little while to percolate after the meetings."  This brought back some unpleasant memories for some as Andy MacPhail was well known for using the term "percolate."  It can sound, particularly with some precedent, as if very little can be expected to be done.  Again, that said, trades are very difficult to pull off and a general managers position is far more intense and difficult than most fans give credit.

Regardless, there has been movement in that AL East this offseason.  The Blue Jays have remade their roster.  The Rays have added a useful piece in Yunel Escobar and traded James Shields for Wil Myers, a prospective above average major leaguer without any service time to his name.  The Yankees have been laying in wait and can always strike when they find something they like (but yes no real movement from them).  The Red Sox have been quite active in buying up mid to low level veteran talent at somewhat questionable prices.  I will be shocked if Shane Victorino's 3 yr / 39 MM deal will bring back anything better than a 8 MM per WAR value.

Anyway, these moves have left me with the following napkin scratch:

	EdG Win
Orioles	85
Red Sox	85
Yankees	86
Rays	92.5
Blue Jays	90

I have the Orioles as having a 2 win increase in talent from last year (which fits well when you normalize their success in one run games...that alone takes them down from a 93 win team to a 83 win team).  That two win improvement comes primarily from two places: Endy Chavez and Mark Reynolds.  Their absence from the team allows other players with better fit and/or performance slide onto the team.  That said, simply excising the imperfect features of last year's squad does not set the team up for a strong chance to compete in 2013.  That is not to say that the playoffs are an impossible event at the moment, but highly improbable.  This is similar to last season when the playoffs were also highly improbable.  Add in an unbalanced schedule and that "85 win" talent may be more like ".500" win talent.

Going forward, the Orioles need to find themselves about 5 WAR to become a serious contender.  The Mets R.A. Dickey has been on the market and would be worth something in the neighborhood of 3-4 WAR.  That move would likely cost the team Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz in addition to several second tier prospects.  The actual win increase for the team is likely more in the neighborhood of 1-3 WAR depending on who goes.  I have not heard of any other pitchers being associated with the Orioles.  For batters, Nick Swisher, Michael Morse, Billy Butler, and Justin Morneau has been attached to the team.  Swisher has been crossed off according to the Orioles' front office and the group in general is likely only to improve the team by a win or two at most.  Their value would mainly come from providing more depth to be utilized if an injury comes along in an area where the depth is present.

In other words, the Orioles need to acquire stars.  Retaining a marginal starter like Nate McLouth or picking up a fringe lefty with good control and no above average pitches (i.e., TJ McFarland) will not help the team maintain the high level of performance (as opposed to talent) that they exhibited last year.  I think a lot of people look back to last year and thing (1) what if Markakis was healthy, (2) what if Nate McLouth played like that for the entire year, (3) what if Jason Hammel was healthy, (4) what if Manny played for the entire year, (5) what if they figured out the starters earlier, etc.  This is a 20/20 hindsight view that overlooks so many things that broke right for the Orioles.  You can also look back and say (1) what if the Orioles had a typical one run game record split, (2) what if Strop lost himself earlier in the year, (3) what if Chris Davis hits his career line, (4) what if Adam Jones did not explode offensively at the beginning of the year, (5) what if Mark Reynolds sucked for 26 weeks instead of 25 weeks, etc.  The truth does not lie in either extreme perspective, but in a mix of both.  It is good to think of how things will change next season, but be sure to recognize the good and bad breaks the team had this year.

Current 40 Man Roster with Options:

	Options Remaining
	*	3	2	1
Pitchers
Jake Arrieta		7/6/2012	O	O
Luis Ayala		X	X	X
Mike Belfiore		O	O	O
Zach Britton		7/9/2011	6/6/2012	O
Dylan Bundy	3/11/2012	O	O	O
Wei-Yin Chen		|	|	|
Zach Clark		O	O	O
Miguel Gonzalez		O	O	O
Jason Hammel		X	X	X
Tommy Hunter		8/16/2008	4/1/2009	5/7/2012
Jim Johnson		6/3/2006	3/12/2007	5/1/2010
Steve Johnson		6/3/2012	O	O
Brian Matusz	3/14/2009	6/30/2011	7/1/2012	O
TJ McFarland		5	5	5
Darren O'Day		5/13/2008	O	O
Troy Patton		3/14/2009	3/15/2010	3/11/2011
Pedro Strop		3/10/2008	3/24/2011	5/4/2011
Chris Tillman		3/30/2010	5/29/2011	3/31/2012
Tsuyoshi Wada		X	X	X
Catchers
Luis Exposito		3/17/2011	3/23/2012	O
Taylor Teagarden		7/21/2008	4/27/2010	3/29/2011
Matt Wieters		O	O	O
Infielders
Wilson Betemit		X	X	X
Alexi Casilla		3/23/2007	3/14/2008	5/6/2009
Chris Davis		7/6/2009	4/23/2010	3/29/2011
Ryan Flaherty		O	O	O
J.J. Hardy		X	X	X
Manny Machado		O	O	O
Yamaico Navarro		3/17/2011	5/29/2012	O
Steve Pearce		3/17/2008	3/28/2009	4/4/2010
Brian Roberts		X	X	X
Jonathan Schoop		O	O	O
Danny Valencia		3/19/2010	5/9/2012	O
Outfielders
Xavier Avery		5/29/2012	O	O
L.J. Hoes		O	O	O
Adam Jones		X	X	X
Nick Markakis		X	X	X
Nate McLouth		X	X	X
Nolan Reimold		3/20/2009	5/12/2010	3/28/2011
Trayvon Robinson		3/18/2010	3/14/2011	3/17/2012

Sunday Comics: Nate the Great

So we get at least one more year out of Nate McLouth! Hooray!

I was admittedly pressed for time this week and literally had a few moments late on Saturday night to draw this (this time of the year things get awfully frantic), but Nate's all set to move back in and stay in Baltimore for a little while longer.