How Good is an NL Ace?: Mean Performance of Pitchers by Slot

There is a series of articles by Jack Sackman that you can find here.  It is an idea I found interesting an often use when I describe pitchers as a certain type of slot pitcher.  I think in common use a person referring to a guy as a one slot pitcher is more or less actually saying that the guy is a one slot pitcher on a first division team.  In other words, an ace on one of the ten best teams in baseball.  In this series of posts, I plan on going through each division and describing what each slot means and how that relates to teams.

AL East | Central | West
NL East | Central | West

NL Summary of Slots

In this post we will go through and look at four team FIP performances for each slot: median, first division cut off, best, and worst.  The following relates to numbers produced in 2011.

Slot 1
An NL pitcher at this slot could be described as:

Median	3.15
67th	3.24
33rd	3.05

The Nationals' Jordan Zimmerman (3.16 FIP) is your typical ace pitcher.  Philadelphia Phillie Cole Hamels (3.05 FIP) would be the threshold first division ace and Cardinal Jaime Garcia (3.23 FIP) would be the closest to a bottom rung ace.  In 2011, the Phillies had the best ace (Roy Halladay 32g 2.20 FIP) and the Astros were the worst (Lucas Harrell 2g 3.27 FIP; Bud Norris 30g 4.02 FIP).

Slot 2
An NL pitcher at this slot could be described as:

Median	3.62
67th	3.79
33rd	3.48

The average Slot 2 pitcher would be the Brewers Yovani Gallardo (3.59 FIP).  Reds' Ace Johnny Cueto (3.45 FIP) is the threshold first division second slot.  New Yankee Hiroki Kuroda (3.78 FIP) would qualify as a bottom threshold second slot pitcher.  The team with the best slot 2 performance are the Philles again (Cliff Lee 32g 2.60 FIP) and the worst was the Pirates (Paul Maholm 23g 3.78; Brad Lincoln 8g 3.88 FIP; Aaron Thompson 1g 3.95 FIP).

Slot 3
An NL pitcher at this slot could be described as:

Median	3.91
67th	4.05
33rd	3.73

Your typical three is the Cubs' Ryan Dempster (3.91 FIP).  The first division gate keeper is the Brewers Shawn Marcum (3.73 FIP).  Jason Marquis (4.05 FIP) would be the bottom rung three man.  The Phillies again have the best performance for the slot (Cole Hamels 31g 3.00 FIP; Vance Worley 1g 3.24 FIP) and the worst was, once again, the Pirates (Jeff Karstens 26g 4.29 FIP; James McDonald 6g 4.68 FIP).

Slot 4
An NL pitcher here can be described as:

Median	4.23
67th	4.55
33rd	4.08

Jhoulys Chacin (4.23 FIP) of the Rockies is the pitcher that embodies the meaning of the fourth slot.  The Brewers' Chris Narveson (4.06 FIP) would be your threshold 4 man and the Phillies' Kyle Kendrick (4.55 FIP) would be your lower tier line.  The Phillies once again set the tone here with the best 4 slot squad (Vance Worley 20g 3.24 FIP; Roy Oswalt 12g 3.44 FIP) and the worst was the Reds (Mike Leake 7g 4.21 FIP; Sam LeCure 4g 4.57 FIP; Edison Volquez 20g 5.29 FIP; Bronson Arroyo 1g 5.71 FIP).

Slot 5
An NL pitcher here can be described as:

Median	4.64
67th	5.27
33rd	4.41

The median 5 slot pitcher would be the Mets' Dillon Gee (4.65 FIP).  Your first division fiver was the fellow Met Mike Pelfrey (4.47 FIP) and the bottom third gate keeper was the Reds' Edison Volquez (5.29 FIP).  The Phillies sweep the slots (Roy Oswalt 11g 3.44FIP; Joe Blanton 8g 3.55 FIP; Kyle Kendrick 13g 4.75 FIP) in better fashion than the Orioles who rated last across the board. The team with the worst back end performance in the NL was the Diamondbacks (Joe Saunders 5g 4.78; Wade Miley 7g 4.79 FIP; Micah Owings 4g 4.85 FIP; Jason Marquis 3g 6.91; Barry Enright 7g 6.98 FIP; Armando Galarraga 6g 7.29 FIP).

AL Average Rotation
1 - Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals
2 - Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
3 - Ryan Dempster, Cubs
4 - Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies
5 - Dillon Gee, Mets

AL First Division Threshold Rotation
1 - Cole Hamels, Phillies
2 - Johnny Cueto, Reds
3 - Shawn Marcum, Brewers
4 - Chris Narveson, Brewers
5 - Mike Pelfrey, Mets

2012 Draft Coverage: Finding 1:4, weekly pref list (April 11, 2012)

No travels over the holiday weekend, which means it was a video weekend for the 1:4 pref list. My focus was on starting to narrow down this top 15 list into a more manageable top 10. In addition to reviewing video I've taken on all of these players (totaling over 50 videos), I was able to catch-up on some game film I've had stored on the computer and in some cases on my DVR. Below are some quick thoughts on the guys currently situated 6-10, and what could cause them to rise-up or get cut from the pref list in the coming weeks. Also, I've included reasoning for dropping players 11-15 from consideration:

Still in the running:
Albert Almora (of) -- Easily the most impressive HS outfielder for me through the summer and fall. Lacks the ceiling of Buxton, but much more refined actions in the field and at the plate. Direct to contact, good plane, and shows pop in a projectable frame. Instincts in the outfield are great and reads off the bat are already average or better by Major League standards.

Gavin Cecchini (ss) -- Focused player with through-the-roof make-up. Business-like approach to the showcase circuit and performed well throughout each stop. I liked that he elected to use wood in the HS game I recently attended, but he expanded his strikezone and failed to square what should have been highly over-matched pitching (including a shaky freshman making his first ever appearance for the varsity squad). I'm relying on the summer/fall showings in projecting the bat to be top-ten worthy, and the glove/arm/actions/instincts make short the easy position to project to.

Carlos Correa (ss/3b) -- Big pop and big arm strength. His approach is a work-in-progress, though he has helped his cause over the past 9-months, shortening his load without losing the violence in his barrel delivery. The result is a shorter swing with comparable torque and a little more time to pitch-ID. Looks like a third baseman, long term, but if you believe in the bat (I do) you could have a "60" player between the offensive and defensive profile.

Luc Giolito (rhp) -- Elbow strain makes him a wildcard, but he's easily the highest-ceilinged arm on the board for me. Giolito has shown growth from his coming out party during the 2010 Area Code Games to the summer circuit and winter workouts. He isn't likely to be a fast-move candidate, but the wait should be worth it. Once he gets everything working together in his motion, he could be a plus to plus-plus velocity guy at 85% effort.

Deven Marrero (ss) -- Beware narratives! Marrero hasn't been hitting, but we do have a history of seeing him perform, including with wood. The trend right now is to for media outlets to come up with a reason that Marrero has struggled this spring. The truth is that he has always been a slightly better hitter with wood than with BBCOR, and even with wood he has never really looked like + hit or + power guy. You're buying positional certainty, advanced feel, and saved money on development.

Missing the cut:
Max Fried (lhp) -- Projectable, advanced secondaries, but limited "now" velocity and consistency. Fried is exactly the type of player I hope to get a shot at in the middle-third of the first round or lower, but lacks the probability to really match-up with the players that will be available in the top 5.

Stryker Trahan (c) -- The defense was just too rough in the spring check-in for me to keep him in the discussion for selection in the top 5 overall. The power is legit, and big, and his athleticism could allow him to play an outfield corner (likely left field) if he has to scoot out from behind the dish. Some folks close to Stryker had very positive comments regarding his make-up, work ethic, and overall character.

Zach Eflin (rhp) -- Spring helium guy that was overlooked more than he should have been in the fall down in Jupiter. The velocity jump is nice, but certainly not surprising, considering the arm speed, frame, and easy motion. The same, there are three legit college arms with better "now" stuff and more probability. It doesn't make sense to keep a follow on Eflin in that context when, essentially, you're looking for Eflin to develop into one of those college arms.

David Dahl (of) -- Potential five-tool package that just misses manifestation in-game, from my looks. His speed plays down some due to some inconsistency in his routes, and he can get too pull-happy at the plate. Almora and Buxton present higher probability and ceiling, making Dahl redundant on our follow list. That said, he's the type of player that, two years from now, people might scratch their head and wonder how he was available at 15th overall.

Walker Weickel (rhp) -- Projection guy in the summer that saw some slide down in Jupiter and a full step back this spring. His ceiling now isn't any lower than it was in the summer (top high school arm in the draft), but he hasn't taken that big step forward yet, and the safer bet is still Giolito. Like Eflin, Weickel just doesn't offer enough over the college trio to make his continued follow worthwhile.

On to the 1:4 pref list:

Current Preference List (April 11, 2012)
1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
4. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
5. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
6. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
7. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
8. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
9. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
10. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

Dropped out:
11. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
13. Zach Eflin, rhp, Hagerty HS (Chuluota, Fla.)
14. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

For today's draft video, here's a look at Carlos Correa(ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad., Gurabo, P.R.) in action down in Jupiter:

Will This Be the Decade of the Offensive Catcher?

If you graph the number of seasons catchers had a 125 OPS+ or higher by decade, you get this graph:

If one was to believe in cyclical production at catcher, you would have the impression that the 2011-2020 decade will produce about 26-30 seasons of catchers hitting better than 125 OPS+.  Much of this production would be placed on the backs of Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, and Buster Posey.  I can see those four accounting for maybe 12-16 seasons.  That is a mighty strong base crop of catchers.  In the 1930s, the production was largely resulting from Mickey Cochrane, Gabby Hartnett, and Bill Dickey.  In the 1970s, Johnny Bench and Ted Simmons led the charge.

Cup of jO's (April 10, 2012): Thoughts on Matusz's Start

It wasn't the start that O's fans were hoping for, but as one data point it wasn't terrible. We'll go in-depth on 2012 Matusz once he has accumulated three or four starts, but some quick thoughts for today:

- Overall Matusz's stuff was good, though he was at times inconsistent with his implementation.

- This was among his best showings this year (including Spring Training) with regards to release point. He was highly consistent finding the same slot and release point for his four offerings, which aided in his deception and allowed a 90 mph fastball to miss some good bats.

- The curve and slider were, at times, above-average to plus. His focus moving into start two will be commanding each better to both sides of the plate.

- His change-up wasn't really there for him, though it appeared this was more a result of him not turning it over consistently. As a feel pitch, it's more likely he just didn't have it last night than it is there are long term issues with the offering.

- I counted 9 to 11 pitches that could have easily been called strikes that were not. Pitch fx put the number at 8 no-doubters (significantly in the strikezone) that were not called strikes. This is part of the game, but against a patient and opportunistic line-up like the Yankees, you can bet you are going to run into trouble if it takes you are required to get four or five strikes past a hitter in order to retire him.

Overall, it was a middle-of-the-road start, scouting-wise, and an ugly start from a stat-line perspective. Matusz next matches up against the Jays on Sunday -- we'll hope he maintains the quality of his pitches while improving the placement of his secondaries.

Cup of jO's (April 9, 2012): The O's, via Tom Scocca

What I'm reading...
Just a quick hit today, as we gear up for the O's series against the winless Yankees. Tom Scocca (Deadspin.com) published an Orioles-centric piece last Friday that is worth a read for every Orioles fan out there. In fact, I'd argue it is a therapuetuc read for any fan base suffering through seasons of losing.

Scocca opens the piece with a look back at the fantastic win that closed out the 2011 season and relegated the Red Sox to an October at home. What follows is an insightful look into the plight that has been the experience of the Orioles fanbase these last 14-years. In conclusion, he offers up a tentatively optimistic view of the current Orioles, their current management, and their 2012 campaign.

Maybe the real undervalued asset was in hiring an unwanted veteran general manager, rather than the sixth- or eighth-best whiz kid on the whiz-kid market. Duquette seems to be trying to get ahead however he can, not angling to position himself to implement a long-range plan to create a future window of opportunity. The long view doesn't require you to grab Zelous Wheeler off waivers at the last minute.

The reason you grab Zelous Wheeler and Matt Antonelli and Nick Johnson is so that, at some point this year, when Chris Davis or Mark Reynolds unleashes his violent, unsound swing and for once connects with the ball, it will be a two-run home run instead of a solo shot, because someone ahead of him has drawn a walk. You do it so that the Red Sox pitchers have to throw three or four extra pitches in an inning.

These are little things. The 27th out in the 162nd game of a losing season is a little thing, too. Until you refuse to concede it.

Make no mistake, the author does not claim the Baltimore fans should start printing playoff tickets. But it is a nice look at the organization for people who haven't necessarily been paying attention to Baltimore for the last decade or so. It's a balanced piece that leans a little to the rosier side of things -- not the tilt that O's fans are used to reading outside of fanbase blogs. Give it a read.

Coming soon...
Thursday will mark a new experimental series for us. I will prepare advance scouting reports for readers to view prior to an Orioles series. The series will serve less as an introduction to the Orioles opponents than it will a true advance scouting compilation, highlighting strengths and weaknesses of individual players. We'll give it a go and see what you all think.