The following graph shows the relationship between moving the fence back and home runs:
You can then use this information to predict the effect of moving a fence.
The graph above is a bit confusing. Somehow my tired brain could not figure out how to do it. Anyway, the way the x-axis works is that you go out to the furthest distance the fence could stand with no home runs and move back in. The stretch of wall I looked at had a distance of 340 to 395 and correlates to the 80 mark. Knowing that, we then can produce the following table showing how distance affects home runs over the course of three seasons:
Beginning End Projected Home Runs Actual Home Runs Percetage 260 315 469 342 270 325 417 304 280 335 367 268 290 345 321 234 300 355 278 203 310 365 238 174 320 375 201 147 330 385 167 122 340 395 137 138 100 350 405 109 108 80 360 415 85 83 62 370 425 63 62 46 380 435 45 47 33 390 445 30 31 22 400 455 18 17 13 410 465 9 12 7 420 475 4 2 3 430 485 1 1
3 comments:
Thanks for the analysis. I have wondered this same thing, but from a competitive standpoint - How many of those home runs where Os and how many visitors? Given that a home run hitting OF costs more than a fast one, would moving the fences out 10 feet and giving up the Os HR allow the Os to develop faster gap hitting OF to give home field advantage over the more costly Red Sox and Yankees OF sluggers (although Granderson would still kick our butts).
Also, fly ball pitchers are cheaper than ground ball pitchers. Getting a long fly out with men on base instead of a HR could have a more significant positive impact on Os ERA than visitors.
Statistician says...
From a purely statistical point of view, extrapolating outside the rgion of data can be a little risky. It's subject to huge swings in variability. Any prediction within the 0-90 foot range should be alright. However, beyond that range, things might change drastically. Instead of 167 projected HRs, there might be 180 or 190, depending on the number of guys out there with warning track power.
If there's any "long out" data out there (Data that has the number of 390 foot outs), this would give a better estimate of moving fences in.
To Northwood: It's a worthwhile thought. It worked in Memorial Stadium (See Ballpark Wanderer in Tom Boswell's "Why Time Begins on Opening Day"). Boswell mentions that O's pitchers lived by the maxim that fastballs on the outside corner would be long outs in the deep power alleys of Memorial Stadium.
Of course, there are assumptions here that were used to extend our consideration of homeruns beyond the area for which we could test. I do not have a data set for long outs.
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