01 May 2012

Revising the Season Projection: May 1st

With a month in the books, Camden Depot's projections have not exactly panned out in the short term.  Projections rarely line up over the short term, but tend to do a decent job with a greater data set.  Much of this is about finding true talent levels of players.  The Orioles are a team I think performance projections have difficulty because so many pieces have a poor amount of data.  For instance, WeiYin Chen's performance is difficult to project because the NPB is a completely different environment than MLB.  Or, projection models are unable to predict that Jason Hammel will find amazing success with a 2 seamer.

The revisions I present for the AL East over the course of the season will give the teams credit for what they have accomplished, but that they will perform according to their predicted talent level in the future.

Current Preseason May 1st Change
New York 13 97 97 0
Boston 11 92 90 -2
Tampa Bay 15 83 87 4
Toronto 12 79 79 0
Baltimore 14 68 72 4

If the Orioles can keep their pace of pulling in four more wins than they were projected for each month, they will finish with 92 wins.  That would put them in very good position for a Wild Card.


Matt P said...

Do injuries have any impact on your projected standings? Ellsbury and Crawford aren't going to be playing for the near future. Are they really only worth two games?

Libby Shea said...

Im surprised the Yankees didnt fall off- With Pineda out and the rest of their starters struggling, can they really keep winning while taxing the bullpen so heavily and relying on incredible run production?

Jon Shepherd said...

I have not put in the effect of injuries. If you want to shorthand it, then I would say subject 3-4 wins for Ellsbury, Crawford, and Pineda. That is rough, but you are likely taking someone who was to be a 3-5 WAR guy and replacing him with someone who may be worth 0-1 WAR. You also need to weight that to the amount of time the player missed.

I think the next time I will include a readjustment of the actual talent lines will be for the July 1st post.