25 April 2011

Predicted Wins and Playoff Probability: Week 4

After four weeks into the season, consisting of 20 games, the Orioles find themselves roughly where I imagined them to be: winning about half of their games.  I did not expect them to be so streaky, but it is not surprising.

All three predictions are hovering around each other.  They are who we thought they are.

PECOTA playoff projections have decreased to 2.1%.  They were at 11.6% after two weeks.  Depot projections are at 0.71%.  After two weeks, the probability was at 3.9%.

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