|Bald Eagle Hatching from Ed Smith Stadium|
Graphs depicting the journey will appear from now on every Monday. It being the first week, we only have one data point. As a brief reminder, here is a rundown of each system:
PECOTA - I use Baseball Prospectus' projections that models the season and predicts wins and playoff opportunity.
Camden Depot - I used MARCEL projections to determine team WAR, adjust the WAR with a log5 strength of schedule factor, and then use a simple binomial function that determines the likelihood of the Orioles winning 92 games. Why 92? Based on all of the projection systems I have seen, 92 wins is likely what will result in a wild card.
Pythagorean - It assumes that what has happened will happen again no matter the sample size. I will also use the same binomial function as a playoff predictor.
PECOTA - 80.3 wins; 8.20% playoff chance
Camden Depot - 79.5 (80.7 without adjustment); 2.23%
Pythagorean - 81 (by default); 3.56%
The Depot's current projection of 2.23% is currently the lowest of the systems I can find. CAIRO puts them at 12.5%.