Putting Sickels' Rankings into a Top 100 . . . well, 119

With John Sickels completing his preliminary offseason prospect rankings(NL, AL), we are able to generate a tiered prospect ranking list. I compiled this one from his Grades A, A-, B+, and B; which brings us to a total of 119 prospects. Looking at our Shadow Draft system, we seemed to have done pretty well.

Brian Matusz A
Jake Arrieta B+
Zach Britton B+
Josh Bell B
Brandon Erbe B
Tim Melville B
Zach Wheeler B

We have been able to meet the Orioles actually list plus two with Melville and Wheeler. As the seasons pass, it will be interesting to see how well our system lines up to the actual Orioles system.

For all of the rankings . . .

Ranking

Tier 1 - Grade A (1 through 9)
Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta Braves
Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees
Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians

Tier 2 - Grade A- (10 through 18)
Justin Smoak, 1B Texas Rangers
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Cincinatti Reds
Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, San Francisco Giants
Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Oakland Athletics
Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins

Tier 3 - Grade B+ (19 through 61)
Tyler Matzek, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
Fernando Martinez, OF, New York Mets
Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland A's
Jordan Lyles, RHP, Houston Astros
Todd Frazier, INF-OF, Cincinatti Reds
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Cincinatti Reds
Matt Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Jason Castro, C, Houston Astros
Mike Trout, OF, LA Angels of Anaheim
Hank Conger, C, LA Angels of Anaheim
Trevor Reckling, LHP, LA Angels of Anaheim
Derek Norris, C, Washington Nationals
Drew Storen, RHP, Washington Nationals
Mike Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York Mets
Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Dan Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Donavan Tate, OF, San Diego Padres
Simon Castro, RHP, San Diego Padres
Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
Dee Gordon, SS, LA Dodgers
Chris Withrow, RHP, LA Dodgers
Grant Green, SS, Oakland Athletics
Josh Vitters, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Wilmer Flores, SS, New York Mets
Logan Morrison, 1B, Florida Marlins
Brett Lawrie, 2B, Milwaukee Brewers
Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Christian Friedrich, LHP, Colorado Rockies
Dominic Brown, OF, Philadelphia Philles
Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

Tier 4 - Grade B (62 though 119)
Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Garrett Richards, RHP, Houston Astros
Jiovanni Mier, SS, Houston Astros
Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Scott Sizemore, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Matt Dominguez, 3B, Florida Marlins
Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
Chad James, LHP, Florida Marlins
Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Ryan Tucker, RHP, Florida Marlins
Jon Niese, LHP, New York Mets
Wilmer Font, RHP, Texas Rangers
Michael Main, RHP, Texas Rangers
Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
Eric Arnett, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
Brett Jackson, OF, Chicago Cubs
Jay Jackson, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Andrew Cashner, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
Alex Avila, C, Detroit Tigers
Dan Schlereth, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Mike Leake, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Josh Lindblom, RHP, LA Dodgers
Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays
Jose Tabata, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Tony Sanchez, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox
Josh Reddick, OF, Boston Red Sox
Michael Bowden, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Jared Mitchell, OF, Chicago White Sox
Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
James Darnell, 3B, San Diego Padres
Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Chicago Cubs
Grant Desme, OF, Oakland Athletics
Ethan Martin, RHP, LA Dodgers
Aaron Miller, LHP, LA Dodgers
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
Aaron Crow, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Tim Melville, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Jaff "Commodore" Decker, OF, San Diego Padres
Wynn Pelzer, RHP, San Diego Padres
Everett Williams, OF, San Diego Padres
Danny Espinosa, SS, Washington Nationals
Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Randall Delgado, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Alexander Colome, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Wil Myers, C, Kansas City Royals
Ben Revere, OF, Minnesota Twins
Thomas Neal, OF, San Francisco Giants
Zack Wheeler, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Sickels' 2010 Prospect Ratings Are Complete

Remember that the ratings on the website may not be the final ones in his guide, but they are relatively close. His site can be difficult to maneuver, so I have provided the listings for his ratings for the National League and American League for your convenience. This may be helpful to look at when proposing mock trades or analyzing actual ones. It may also help comparing the Orioles' system to others. Enjoy.

Becoming Acquainted: Scouting the Sally

As we occasionally have done in the past and now planning to do more so in the future, we like to interview other individuals who run exciting and rather informative websites that we think you should check out. Scouting the Sally is one of them.

Mike Newman is the founder of the site. He began it after coming to the realization just how much talent comes through the league. In the past four years, talents such as Ben Zobrist, Gaby Hernandez, Alcides Escobar, Hunter Pence, Gio Gonzalez, Phil Hughes, Carlos Carasco, Brandon Erbe, Mat Gamel, Fernando Martinez, Elvis Andrus, Jose Tabata, Austin Jackson, Kyle Drabek, Chris Coghlan, Logan Morrison, Desmond Jennings . . . I can go on and on. The shear number of current and future MLB talent that went through this league was staggering and presented Mike with an opportunity to provide in-depth analysis on a low minors league that is rich in relevance to Major League Baseball. His site provides easy access to some of the most detailed first hand scouting reports and videos on Sally prospects. His main goals for his site are to build up networking and communication through media and professional baseball.

Mike's background also helps provide some credit to his work. He played college baseball on the D1/2 and JuCo levels and spent some time working in professional baseball at AA. He then spent several years coaching high school baseball in Florida before devoting himself to his family. Baseball gnawed at him though and he has now decided to use Scouting the Sally as an outlet, which is much to everyone's benefit who is interested in low minors prospects. Mike's clear, descriptive reports are an excellent tool in getting a first read on a player you have seen (or haven't seen enough) or to cross check your own analysis of a player.

After the jump, I ask Mike about his thoughts on Joe Jordan, LJ Hoes, Xavier Avery, and his future plans for the site.


Crawdaddy: What are your general impressions of the talent that Joe Jordan is introducing into the Orioles system as it passes through Delmarva? How does it compare to other teams?

Mike Newman: Delmarva was down in 2009. They didn't have anything in terms of impact talent; especially on the pitching staff. I'm excited about the 2010 team as Hobgood, Givens, and Bundy would be a fun trio to scout. Overall, I'm impressed with how the organization has drafted over the past couple of years. I know people bashed the Hobgood signing, but it freed up more money to go overslot on a handful of players which builds the organizational depth they are lacking just a bit.

CD: After a promising rookie ball campaign, LJ Hoes statistically took a step back in the SAL. What is your report on him? What do you think his projection is?

MN: Hoes seems to have lost a step or two and his lower body is becoming too large for my liking. He's not nearly as sleek as he used to be and may have to move off of second base at some point. If this happens, it tanks his prospect value as he doesn't have the bat to profile as adequate at the corners. I like his bat speed through the zone, but he's is not going to project for much power.




CD: Similarly, what is your report on Xavier Avery?

MN: Avery had an excellent two-strike approach and understood his limitations on the field. He worked ground balls back up the middle and used his legs which was good to see. The question will be whether or not he can develop enough pop to keep fielders honest as I see little power potential. His glove is a bit of a question mark at this point. He can cover a ton of ground, but I question his route running and every fly ball seems to be an adventure.




CD: What future plans do you have for yourself and Scouting the Sally?

MN: Right now I'm just having a blast making connections in baseball and hearing from readers around the country. The next obvious step would be to rebuild the site to allow ads and incorporate more multimedia elements. I love using web 2.0 tools including Twitter and Coveritlive, but I was a broadcasting major in college and want to grow into a quality weekly podcast.

CD: I'd like to thank Mike for this short interview and suggest all of our readers to go and check out his site, Scouting the Sally.

Acknowledgements: Videos were provided by Mike Newman at Scouting the Sally

Felix Pie vs RH Fastballs

Here is a quick post today. I decided to chart out how Felix Pie fared against right handers tossing four seamed cheese. The samples was 431 fastballs with a velocity of 92.1 +/- 2.3 mph. You can tell from the graph that Felix's eyes were wide for high heat from the mid to outside part of the plate. He had strikes called on the interior and low outside as we would expect. Most of his hard hit pitches were in the center slanting outward with his range leaning outside as he steps into the pitch. Looking at the graph, for fastballs I would target Pie high and outside to punch him out. Setting him up with an inside pitch would be a good idea perhaps.

Click on the image to get a larger picture with greater resolution.

Baseball America Loves us...well, sort of...by extension

To recap, we've run a shadow draft the last two Junes, noting the selection we would make were we drafting for the Orioles in their slots. Here are the results (first five rounds in 2008 and first ten rounds in 2009):

Year (Round) - Player
2008 (1) - Brian Matusz, LHP, Univ. of San Diego
2008 (2) - Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS (MO)
2008 (3) - Roger Kieschnick, RF, Texas Tech
2008 (4) - Brandon Crawford, SS, UCLA
2008 (5) - Brian Humphries, OF, Granite Hills HS (CA) (ATTENDING PEPPERDINE)
2009 (1) - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
2009 (2) - Todd Glaesmann, OF, Midway HS (TX)
2009 (3) - Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville University
2009 (4) - Dustin Dickerson, 1B, Baylor Univ.
2009 (5) - Ian Krol, LHP, Neuqua Valley HS (IL)
2009 (6) - Brody Colvin, RHP, St. Thomas More HS (LA)
2009 (7) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC)
2009 (8) - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor Univ.
2009 (9) - Ryan Berry, RHP, Rice University
2009 (10)- Sam Dyson, RHP, Univ. of South Carolina (BACK TO SOU. CAROLINA)

After our third pick in 2009, we made this obervation during our draft day chat:

"For the fourth time in eight rounds in the history of our Shadow Draft here at CamdenDepot.com, the San Francisco Giants make our pick exactly one pick after us (Kieschnick, Crawford, Wheeler and now Dominguez). I guess this means we're pretty close with our player valuations...I'll take it as a good sign, but still eerie."

Today, Jim Callis of Baseball America writes, "We grade every draft from 2005-08 in the new Prospect Handbook, and no team outdid San Francisco's 3.50 GPA." (link to insider article). That alone was enough to get me excited, but I was truly surprised when I went back and looked at the other organizations that selected "our" players, and BA's corresponding view of how those organizations draft. More after the jump...

________________________________________________
Callis had the following to say about San Francisco's selections in 2008:

"That [2008 draft class for San Francisco] could be San Francisco's best hitting crop in years, led by Buster Posey (first), third baseman Conor Gillaspie (sandwich), outfielder Roger Kieschnick (third) and shortstop Brandon Crawford (fourth) (emphasis added)."

The full comparison of our selections and how the matched against the actual drafting organizations:

San Francisco (4)
2009 Zack Wheeler (us, R1; them, R1) and Chris Dominguez (us, R3; them, R3)
2008 Roger Kieschnick (us R3; them R3) and Brandon Crawford (us, R4; them, R4)

Boston (3)
2009 Madison Younginer (us, R7; them R7) and Kendal Volz (us, R8; them R9)
2008 Brian Humphries (us, R5; them R19)

Baltimore (2)
2009 Ryan Berry (us, R9; them R9)
2008 Brian Matusz (us, R1; them R1)

Oakland (2)
2009 Ian Krol (us, R5; them R7) and Sam Dyson (us, R10; them, R10)

Kansas City (1)
2008 Tim Melville (us R2; them R4)

Tampa (1)
2009 Todd Glaesmann (us, R2; them R3)

Florida (1)
2009 Dustin Dickerson (us, R4; them R6)

Philly (1)
2009 Brody Colvin(us, R6; them, R7)

Baseball America listed GPA's for each organization's drafting from 2005-2008 (link). This only relates to players signed and does not include 2009, but it gives an indication of which organizations draft well, in BA's opinion. Here's how the above orgs graded out:

Organization (number of matching picks with us) - Baseball America GPA, BA Rank
San Francisco (4) - 3.50, T-1st
Boston (3) - 3.50, T-1st
Tampa (1) - 3.38, 3rd
Florida (1) - 3.13, T-7th
Philly (1) - 3.00, 11th
Baltimore (2) - 2.88, 13th
Oakland (2) - 2.75, 14th
Kansas City (1) - 2.38, 23rd

So ten of our fifteen picks were made by organizations that have, from 2005-2008, earned a 3.00 or better from Baseball America when it comes to drafting and signing talent, and only one of our picks was made by an organization ranking in the bottom half by Baseball America.

This is a really quick and dirty way of looking at things, as obviously it's the pick in particular that matters, but I'm encouraged by two things. First, that so many of our picks were made in rounds close to where the player actually came off the board. This indicates to me that our valuing of the payer is fairly accurate -- we're taking players around where other teams think a player should go. Second, teams that seem to know what they are doing like a lot of the players we like. Again, it's the pick in particular that matters, but if I buy a painting and an art collector I respect states that he likes that painting as well, I'm feeling pretty good about my investment.

Once the Prospect Handbook is out, we'll take a closer look at this, as well as where our Shadow Picks rank in their current organzations.




________________________________________________

McGwire Admits Roid Use; Can we admit him now? Raffy too?

Both Raffy and McGwire look like solid Hall of Famers to me.



But not Jose Canseco.

Huff signs with Giants; Market Narrowing

With Aubrey Huff signing with the Giants, I can only imagine that Adam LaRoche's and Russell Branyan's agents are on hold with the Mets. Last year's DH situation is showing up again as this year's first base situation (as well as DH, by the way). Players who were expecting multiyear deals near 10MM per will not be getting what they once thought was a cinch to get. Adam LaRoche, in fact, turned down an offer of 2 years and 17MM from the Giants. I imagine that offer is now off the table with Huff, Pablo Sandoval, Mark DeRosa, and Juan Uribe in the mix for their corner positions. That leaves the Giants 5MM to spend on someone like Jon Garland.

This also leaves teams like the Orioles in a better bargaining position. Andy MacPhail has mentioned that he sees Garrett Atkins as more of a first baseman than a third baseman, but the market is void of talent at third. He has also mentioned a desire for a right handed power hitter, which the market also lacks at first base. If he is really dead set on getting another bat, it seems like it will be a buyer's market on left handed first basemen desperate for a starting slot.

A brief look at the teams and who they have spelling 1B, 3B, and DH after the jump.


Corners and DHs:
Arizona Diamondbacks - Allen, Reynolds
Atlanta Braves - Glaus, Jones
Baltimore Orioles - Aubrey, Wigginton, Atkins (1B/3B weak)
Boston Red Sox - Youkilis, Beltre, Ortiz
Cincinatti Reds - Rolen, Votto
Chicago Cubs - Lee, Ramirez
Chicago White Sox - Konerko, Beckham, Teahan
Cleveland Indians - Peralta, Hafner, LaPorta (~1B)
Colorado Rockies - Helton, Stewart
Detroit Tigers - Cabrera, Inge, Ordonez, Guillen (~DH)
Florida Marlins - Cantu, Bonifacio (3B weak)
Houston Astros - Berkman, Feliz
Kansas City Royals - Gordan, Fields, Butler (~1B/DH)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Morales, Wood, Matsui (3B weak)
Los Angeles Dodgers - Blake, Loney (~1B)
Milwaukee Brewers - Fielder, McGehee, Gamel
Minnesota Twins - Morneau, Punto, Kubel, Harris (3B weak)
New York Mets - Murphy, Wright (1B weak)
New York Yankees - Teixeira, Rodriguez, Johnson, Swisher
Oakland Athletics - Barton, Carter, Chavez, Fox, Cust
Philadelphia Phillies - Howard, Polanco
Pittsburgh Pirates - LaRoche, Clement, Alvarez (1B weak)
Texas Rangers - Young, Smoak, Davis
St. Louis Cardinals - Pujols, Freese (3B weak)
San Diego Padres - Gonzalez, Headley, Kouzmanoff
San Francisco Giants - Huff, Sandoval, Uribe, DeRosa
Seattle Mariners - Kotchman, Figgins, Griffey, Bradley
Tampa Bay Rays - Pena, Longoria
Toronto Blue Jays - Overbay, Encarnacion, Snider (DH weak)
Washington Nationals - Zimmerman, Dunn

Teams in need of a 1B: Orioles, Mets, Pirates, Indians, Dodgers
Mets seem intent on signing a player. Thin money is on them resigning Carlos Delgado, but I could also see them going with Russell Branyan or Adam LaRoche. Pirates will enter the market if the money becomes tight for the position. They want more offense, but have little interest in paying for it. They probably need one more year to buffer Pedro Alvarez and can always shift Andy LaRoche to second base. The Indians have a situation where they can continue to run LaPorta out to left field, but he really is more of a first baseman. They could enter into the market similarly to the Pirates, but have less need than the Pirates. Last season, the Dodgers were irritated with James Loney's stagnant bat. He appears to have the approval of Joe Torre and money appears tight for the Dodgers with the owner's divorce hearings going on.

This leaves the Orioles who have been mentioned as having an 80MM MLB payroll budget. They currently are sitting around 65MM, so they appear to have money to spend. Bedard, a LOOGY, and a free agent 1B would probably fill most of that up.

Predictions:
Russell Branyan - Baltimore Orioles 1/4.5MM
Adam LaRoche - Pittsburgh Pirates 1/4MM
Carlos Delgado - New York Mets 1/5MM
Hank Blalock - Los Angeles Dodgers 1/4MM
Ryan Garko - Florida Marlins 1/2MM