2010 Record Update

It has been a long while since our last recap.  The prolonged losing and my upcoming doctoral defense has kept me pretty much isolated to twitter.  140 characters do not allow me to procrastinate too much.  Anyway, I think we are getting to a monumental change in the predictions for this year in that for the first time since the third week of April the Orioles may no longer be the favorite for receiving the first overall selection in the draft.  The team stands right now with a 0.5 game lead over the Pittsburgh Pirates.  This translates as a 52% chance of taking the first overall selection.  With about six weeks left in the season, this will be a nail biter for awfulness.  Here is how we stand in general:

1. Pirates 52% chance finishing behind them (aka taking the 1st overall selection in the 2011 draft)
2. Mariners 75%
3. Diamondbacks 91%
4. Royals 93%
5. Indians 93%
6. Astros 95%
7. Cubs 97%
8. Nationals 98%
9. Brewers 99%
10. Athletics 100%

After the jump, the updated prediction graph detailing what our WAR system, PECOTA, and Pythagorean methods see for this team.

2010 Season Wis Update: Week 7 or something

The lines are beginning to peter out now.




Depressing to be an O's fan.

2010 Season Wins Update: Week 6

And here is our weekly record update. As you can see, all three projection systems were slightly depressed from the last week. Not as badly as the Astros though who have narrowed the Orioles projected first pick lead to six games.




After the jump, the somewhat unneeded playoff odds.

PECOTA odds: 0.003%
Camden Depot odds: 0.014%

Season Wins Update: Week 5

The sweep against the Red Sox has caused all of the prediction models to respond positively. For the PECOTA model, this reduces the Orioles 2011 Draft pick lead from 11.2 to 7.3 games. Based on how the season should shake out, I think that PECOTA will probably take us out of the number one position around June 20th.



Click picture to make larger.

After the jump, playoff odds.

PECOTA now is more pessimistic than Camden Depot.

PECOTA: 0.03% chance of making playoffs.
Camden Depot: 0.08% chance of making playoffs.

Regardless, no one should be making October plans.

2010 Season Wins Update: Week 3

Here is the season update prior to last night's games. The secondary axis this week is projected 2011 draft slot according to PECOTA as opposed to season wins. As you can see, the Orioles dropped from 12 to 10 to 1 so far this season. PECOTA is typically not very reactionary, but it appears to be so this year.

Playoff percentages are 0.52% for PECOTA and 0.41% for Camden Depot.



Raw Data After the Jump


Week Pecota WAR Pythagorean Actual Psodds Penodds Wcodds WARPsodds 4th record in AL PECOTA Pecota Draft
6-Apr 78.6 78.3 81 0 0.34% 12
13-Apr 71.7 76.4 45.5 1 1.95% 0.60% 1.35% 0.88% 91.5 10
20-Apr 68.8 74 46.7 2 0.52074 0.11376 0.40698 0.18% 92.6 1

2010 Predicted and Actual Record Recap

I am bringing this back after a year long hiatus. This will be a weekly post that will keep track of the Orioles actual wins and will also take a gander about how their performance is changing the metrics we use in projecting their performance. I imagine that PECOTA will be more reactive to player performance this year than I will be.

Current Playoff Odds
PECOTA: 1.95%
Camden Depot: 0.88% (91.5 wins)

PECOTA uses their projection systems to predict the entire season and the chance that individual players can have breakout or fadeout seasons. My system is basically using a binomial distribution to determine the percent likelihood of the Orioles matching the 4th record in the AL according to the adjusted PECOTA rankings. On the graph, I illustrate the slightly rougher rule which is 95 wins in the AL East.

Projected Season Wins: Vegas vs Diamond Mind Projections . . . Part II

Last week I compared actual season wins against projected seasons wins using projections systems and the Vegas Line. In general, what we found was that each system was pretty accurate. We also found that teams do not overperform considerably (exceeding one standard deviation) if either system predicts the team to win more than 90 games, but that there are several instances of underperformance for these teams (particularly with the projection-based system). Two interesting and most likely non-applicable observations were that Vegas lines tended to under estimate teams they predict to win 85-90 games while the Projection systems tend to underestimate teams in the 73-78 win range. I do not know why in either instance and think it may just be a statistical abnormality.

Today, after the jump, we will be comparing the Vegas line to the Projection system. Again, I have little to no clue about gambling, so I am not sure what it all means related to that . . . if someone wishes to guest blog something about that would be swell. For me, it has more to do with differences between the wisdom of the crowd and the wisdom of a carefully optimized set of algorithms as well as how that might apply to betting . . . which again is something I do not well understand. In this set of analysis, I will be looking for instances where the crowd wisdom would prevail in an over/under bet against the projection system.


The way I chose to compare the Vegas line against the Projection system is to look at instances where they differed against each other by a standard deviation (~8 wins) and then by an arbitrary number that sounds nice (5 wins).

There are 11 instances in which the two system disagreed by 8 or more wins. In three of these instances, siding in agreement with the projection system would win up with losses against the crowd line. I cannot find much in agreement with these three data points other than all three have Projection estimates of under .500 winning percentage. Limiting it to that criteria, we would get a 4-3 betting scenario. The data here is limited, but that might be a decent working hypothesis: trust the projection systems when there is an 8 game spread between the two and the projection system guesses a winning season. Another working hypothesis is to go with the projection system when the spread is 8 games and the projection system predicts fewer wins (5-1) as opposed to more wins (3-2) than the Vegas line. Still, the amount of data is not very great.



There are 27 instances in which the two systems disagreed by 5 or more wins and again the rate at which the Vegas line wins is about 25%. Using the working hypothesis generated above with 5 game or greater spread and a winning Projection-based record, 9-2 is slightly better than the entire data set. The second working hypothesis (5 or more spread with projection predicting less) winds up with a 10-2 result, which is better than the alternative 11-5). Again, the power of this study is pretty limited, but it is something that we will tease apart more so in the future.



When all of the projections come in, we'll comment on who fits into these classifications and follow how well the working hypotheses work.

Projected Season Wins: Vegas vs Diamond Mind Projections . . . Part I

Each year we get bombarded with projections, predictions, and betting lines about season win totals. Such an endeavor is often foolhardy because injuries and depth charts are exceptionally difficult to estimate. Nonetheless, we try year in and year out. I think it is useful in that it gives us the chance to temper our expectations each year. The problem often is though that we utilize the projections/predictions at the beginning of the year and then promptly forget them and never assess how well they fit the actual result. Also, one thing I want to make clear . . . I know nothing about betting. I just grabbed the over/under. In no way am I suggesting that the Vegas line is the only line or that any differences in accuracy between the systems results in you making any money. None of that is my concern. I am more focused on the Vegas line as being representative of a generic mob of people model.

One thing to recognize is the usage of the terms prediction and projection. A projection in this exercise is an estimation of what would happen given a set of assumptions. When you read about games won using the PECOTA, CHONE, or CAIRO projections . . . it is not a prediction. No one is saying that the Orioles will win 79 games. They are saying they are projected to win 79 games. A prediction is an estimate of the actual outcome, a foretelling of a future event or series of events. Does that make sense? Projections are often used within the framework of a prediction, but they really are not synonymous. Anyway, I digress.

I will be using the current Vegas over/under for season wins as a sort of crowd model, while using a composite of ZiPS, CHONE, CAIRO, MARCEL, and PECOTA from the Replacement Level Yankees Blog to represent an projection-based model. First, I will present the current Vegas projections and the current model projections (only CAIRO, so far). After the jump, a few graphs and analysis discussing how 2006-2009 performed for each model.

Current Vegas MLB 2010 OVER/UNDER SEASON WIN TOTALS
In parentheses are the current projected wins based on CAIRO (this will be adjusted when all projection systems are incorporated)

AL East
YANKEES 95.5 (99)
RED SOX 94.5 (95)
RAYS 90 (95)
ORIOLES 76 (71)
BLUE JAYS 72.5 (70)

AL Central
TWINS 84.5 (82)
WHITE SOX 82.5 (87)
TIGERS 78.5 (72)
INDIANS 75.5 (77)
ROYALS 72 (70)

AL West
ANGELS 85 (80)
RANGERS 83.5 (82)
MARINERS 82.5 (80)
A'S 79 (78)

NL East
PHILLIES 92.5 (90)
BRAVES 85.5 (85)
MARLINS 81 (72)
METS 81 (80)
NATIONALS 70.5 (71)

NL Central
CARDINALS 87.5 (91)
CUBS 83.5 (86)
BREWERS 80.5 (81)
REDS 79.5 (84)
ASTROS 73.5 (66)
PIRATES 69 (73)

NL West
DODGERS 85.5 (91)
ROCKIES 84 (83)
GIANTS 82.5 (77)
DIAMONDBACKS 82 (83)
PADRES 72.5 (78)



The first graph shows the predictive ability of both the Vegas and Projection systems for every data point generated from 2006 to 2009. As you can see the R2 for either the Vegas (0.28) or Projection (0.30) systems are pretty much equivalent. In a raw sense, they predict equally well. As most projection systems can predict about 75% of performance, it is understandable that quantitative systems and qualitative systems would be pretty similar.



The next graphic is a table of the standard deviation of the difference between the Vegas/Projection systems against the actual value. It varied from around 6 to 11 during these three years with the Projection system being narrowly more accurate for three of the four year, but not significantly so. A rough estimate is that 95% of all teams will fall within two standard deviations of the mean. So, using the composite standard deviation, a team with 79 wins would range between 64 and 94 wins. That is the realm of possibility. Since 2001, only the 2007 Yankees were able to get the Wild Card with as few as 94 wins. A 79 win team effectively is out of the post season based on these numbers although there is a 1 in 40 chance for a team to defy those odds and win more than 94 games. The only example of this would be the Vegas prediction for the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.



Another way to evaluate this data in order to evaluate the potential for teams to outproduce their expected wins is to see when systems incorrectly project wins by a large amount. The second graph shows all data points that are greater than one standard deviation off the actual value. As one would expect, there is a line where predicted and actual values cannot exceed. In other words, if your team is predicted to win 90 games then it is very difficult to win more than one standard deviation above that. In fact, the highest prediction on this graph that ever resulted in a somewhat significant underestimation was it has ever happened was 89 wins. Once you hit that level, there really is not much room to break out. It is exceptionally difficult to win more than 97 games. The opposite end is not as much of a hard line as team predicted to win as few as 68 games still underperformed. This may be a result of a dispersal of assets at the trade deadline or an influx of substandard talent that is permitted to play more often in September.



Part II will go a bit more into the data looking at situation where the Vegas and Projection system disagree and whether this disagreement isolates one system as being more accurate than the other.

I am not Andy MacPhail: 2010 Off Season

So the 2010 offseason is coming to a close. We can probably expect about 5-6MM more in contracts to be doled out. Erik Bedard is expected to eventually sign here. Mark Hendrikson or Takahashi are also supposed to come in as the lefthander in the pen. Andy MacPhail's moves are summed up as:

Kevin Millwood 1/9MM (or ~11MM considering that Chris Ray has value)
Garrett Atkins 1/5MM (essentially with the buyout)
Mike Gonzalez 2/12MM (essentially 14MM with the incentives or 15MM with the loss of the draft pick)
Miguel Tejada 1/6MM (essentially 6.5MM with incentives)

A total of 26MM for 2010 (28MM with incentives) or 32-34MM by the end of the off season.

I would not have done the above. The moves MacPhail completed were largely short-term without much effect to the future. All of these millions could be spent on future parts. The best case scenario is for Millwood and Tejada to reestablish their value and qualify as type B level free agents.

After the jump, what I would have done.

1. Sign Miguel (Angel Sano) Jean for 3.5MM (down to 30.5MM).
The money used to sign Garrett Atkins is better placed in someone who may actually help the Orioles in the field or in a trade. Jean is considered to be a fringe top 100 prospect. He has amazing raw tools and has more worth to 2013-2017 than Atkins does. Atkins has really no above average tools left.
2. Sign Dallas McPherson to a split contract to compete for 1B (30MM).
McPherson fills in for another bat to compete for the first base position with Aubrey and Wigginton. He is a low cost option who could DH at AAA or just be released if he cannot make the parent club out of spring training.
3. Sign Matt Capps as closer 1/3.5MM (26.5MM).
Is Capps as good a closer as Gonzalez? No. But, a closer is really one of the last pieces to add. For a team with no hope of competing . . . paying twice this amount would be inefficient. Capps is also just 26 and under team control.
4. Sign Brad Penny 1/7.5MM (19MM).
Brad Penny had good peripherals last season even though his straight numbers looked poor in the AL East. If Penny gets injured, there are suitable replacements in the pen (i.e. Hernandez, Berken) or at AAA (i.e. Arrieta).
5. Sign Aroldis Chapman 5/25MM (14MM).
Chapman is a large investment, but not considerably so when you consider the added cost of players like Atkins, Gonzalez, and Millwood. By scaling back on those salaries, two seasons of Chapman are paid for already. His addition to the club would put another B+ arm in the system that fits in at worst around the 50th best prospect in baseball.
6. Sign Mark Hendrickson 1/1.5MM (11.5MM).
Hendrickson is a cheap, yet effective lefty situational pitcher.
7. Sign Adrian Beltre 2/23MM+1/14MM w/4MM bo.
This might be the more controversial idea that I have here and assumes that Beltre would be open to signing here. The reason why I think Beltre would be a good fit here is because he is a great defensive 3B with average to above average hitting ability. SafeCo is tough on right handed hitters and Beltre should do much better outside of Seattle. I also think this gives Josh Bell a full season in AAA to play third base and, occasionally, first base. Bell's rookie season (2011) will be a competition between him and Snyder with Bell also being able to back up third base. The tricky season will be the option year. If both Snyder and Bell distinguish themselves, then buying out the last season makes sense. If neither or only one distinguishes themselves, then it makes sense to pick up the option.
8. Trade Felix Pie, Chris Ray, and Kam Mickolio for J.J. Hardy.
J.J. Hardy was traded for another failed prospect in Carlos Gomez. The Brewers have some need for a centerfielder as well as more depth in their bullpen. This deal gives the Orioles two years of J.J. Hardy as their shortstop. At worst, he is Izturis and at best he is a premier offensive SS with Izturis' glove. It is a move that have major upside and resolves a major hole in the Orioles infield.

C Matt Wieters
1 Aubrey/McPherson/Wigginton
2 Roberts
3 Beltre
S Hardy
L Reimold
C Jones
R Markakis
D Scott

P Guthrie
P Penny
P Bergesen
P Matusz
P Tillman

The projected wins for this team is 81.1. That is greater than the projected wins for the current team while using the same resources and devoting 8MM to future players. The odds are:
332:1 against losing 100 games
1:1 breaking even
13:1 against 90 wins
82:1 against 95 wins

I think MacPhail has been inefficient in his use of resources. There are no glaring errors in terms of locking down players long term (i.e. Aubrey Huff, Danys Baez, Jaime Walker) or dealing away useful young player (i.e. John Maine), but the upside on these deals are minimal. Basically, the hope is that players like Tejada and Millwood qualify as type B free agents. Nothing more than that. Very average, uninteresting moves in my opinion. At least, when given with a valuable veteran, MacPhail tends to get good value (i.e Tillman, Bell, Jones).

Miguel Tejada is back in Baltimore

Pending the results of his physical, Miguel Tejada will be rejoining the Orioles as their starting 3B. Shortly before the signing, Orioles GM Andy MacPhail had apparently narrowed down his choices to Joe Crede and Miguel Tejada. Speaking with Roch Kobatko, MacPhail said:

We would hope that next corner infielder we could add is a solid hitter. (But) there isn't a multitude of those power guys in the game, and I think the game is shifting a little bit away from the gaudy power numbers that were put up 10 years ago that we were used to seeing. The game is starting to shift and you can see, rightfully so, clubs starting to put emphasis on defense . . . There are also durability issues with Joe over the course of his career, and not so much with Miguel, who's had over 650 plate appearances in all but one season in recent memory . . .

It seemed somewhat obvious then what the Orioles preference was and that they hoped Tejada could take to the new position.

After the jump, thoughts on Tejada switching to third, his hitting, and the new projected win total.


Tejada will be learning a new position this year. He has not logged a single game at third base in the Majors during a career that has spanned 1846 games or 16097.2 innings in the field. His transition to the hot corner will be interesting as what has plagued him most as he has aged has been the reduction in his range. His hands and his arm still look sharp, the range has been the issue. Having not seen him much in Houston, I am not sure what is hurting that range. If it is just a decrease in speed (as was apparent in Baltimore) or a decrease in reaction time as well. The latter will have the most effect on him at third. We may see something similar to Melvin Mora where he actually played a few steps back to give himself more time to react to batted balls. Thankfully, no one really bunts anymore because Mora was often not in a position to field them well. Tejada might find himself in a similar place. I think we can probably expect something in the -5 to 0 runs above average defense from him at third. That might be slightly optimistic. It really all depends on his response time. I think his throwing motion is compact enough to not make that an issue.

Tejada has seen a gradual decline in his offensive abilities from his 2004 career year. Starting with his last season in Baltimore and his two in Houston, he has displayed a couple of interesting changes. First off, although his ISO has been fairly consistent in the .130 to .140 range, his HR/Fly rate has been cut dramatically from the mid teens to about 8%. He has made up for that dropped by increasing his contact rate (mid 80s to high 80s) and has largely done that by increasing his swing rate (40s to low 50s). He is one of the most prolific ball players over the past couple years in terms of contact rate. As one would expect, an increase in swing rate will often be matched by a decrease in walk rate. Tejada is not a prolific walker with a career line of 6.3%, but his rate of 2.8% was a severe drop from his peak years. All in all, his the rates suggest the Tejada is feeling the effects of aging. His lines are entering the phase of his career where you could potentially see a complete and utter drop in performance. His success will depend entirely on his contact rate as he has pretty much lost his other batting skills.

With so many prediction systems up these days, we have stopped working on our own as it seems we were only reinventing the wheel. Our laborious excel program just required too much time to update and any of the big five (CHONE, ZiPS, PECOTA, Bill James, MARCEL) are just as good to use with minor variations. For the projections this year, we chose CHONE. CHONE predicts Tejada to have a 297/333/434 line with -12 fielding at shortstop. I kept the offensive portion and modified the defensive portion to be league average defense (i.e. 0) at third. I also predicted him being able to garner 600 PA.

This places the current win projection at 77.8 wins. Under this scenario we have the following odds (using binomial distribution):

82:1 against losing 100 games
5:2 against a .500 record
42:1 against 90 wins
332:1 against 95 wins

Assuming a playoff threshold of 95 wins, the Orioles have a 0.3% chance to make the playoffs right now.

On the Links . . . Chris Lamb, Projected Win Totals

A links post today . . .

Dean Jones relates a scouting report on our new pitcher from Oz.

Chris Lamb (19 years old) was signed a couple weeks ago by the Orioles. He was also being courted by the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs. He posted up good numbers in a mid level Australian league, going 2-1 with a 3.03era. He had a K rate of 14.8 per 9 innings, but also walked 10 per 9. The talent level here is more on par with Bluefield. He was promoted to a league that was on par with Delmarva (single A) and appeared to be overmatched. He struck out about one per inning, but walked about 12 per 9. Baseball is somewhat relaxed over in Australia, so hopefully a more regimented scheduled can improves his conditioning.

Jones relates the Aussie team's assistant GM's comments on Lamb:

He's a skinny kid with a live arm and room to add 10-15 pounds of muscle as he fills out. At times he can get erratic and lose the strike zone, but he also has the ability to get hitters to swing and miss. The coaching staff has been working with him on his release point and repeating his delivery. With consistent work in the [United] States he will have a much better opportunity to refine his mechanics. He currently throws his fastball with late sinking action at 88-90 mph and has topped out at 93. His secondary pitches are a real good curveball that drops off the table and a changeup that he is still developing. The coaches have taught him a cutter that he has started to implement into games as well.

As I had mentioned somewhere, he is seen as a potential LOOGY.

Predicted Wins for the 2010 Season Post-Millwood, Atkins, Gonzalez.

The current projected win totals have been posted by Dempsey's Army, Camden Crazies, and us here at Camden Depot. The win totals are as follows:
Dempsey's Army - 83 wins
Camden Crazies - 76 wins
Camden Depot - 77 wins

Mean +/- SD - 78.7 +/- 3.8 wins

Projected Win Total: Post Gonzalez and Atkins Signings

Last night saw a flurry of activity for the Baltimore Orioles with really none of it expected. Press reports had mentioned the Orioles being in the market for a closer and a third baseman. On the closer front, the Orioles were mentioned to being heavily involved in the Matt Capps and Fernando Rodney markets. Meanwhile, with third basemen it appeared that after Pedro Feliz was snatched up that Joe Crede was the target. The idea behind that was a professed desire by MacPhail to sign a defense oriented talent at third base. Atkins is not that. Then again, Atkins may be seeing more time at first base depending on how the rest of the off season goes.

So where are we now using the CHONE projections?
Garrett Atkins - 258/329/410, below average defense
1/4.5MM with 1/8MM opt (0.5MM buyout)
Mike Gonzalez - 3.67 era
2/12MM (up to 4MM in incentives)

Using those numbers . . . we raise our win total from 74.5 to 76.8.

More after the jump.


As was mentioned in our post with Jose Valverde, the likely impact of losing a second round pick is not something that is generally noticeable. The loss of a top second round pick typically generates a prospect with decent projection, but that value is typically about 2.5MM worth of play when you average everything out. It just is not a huge loss. This seems particularly true when our last two second rounds picks were Mychal Givens and Xavier Avery. Both are high potential, low probability type of prospects of the C+ variety. That said, you can also find great talent in the second round. As was mentioned, Chris Tillman was a second round selection. In this light, sacrificing a second round pick should be for a component that whose value dwarfs that of the potential gain of a second round selection. Under that criteria, a relief pitcher (even a closer) just is not valuable enough. The difference between Gonzalez and Rodney is maybe at most 2 or 3 blown saves. That probably is not the difference between watching the playoffs and making the playoffs for the Orioles.

Then again, Gonzalez may not cost the Orioles a second round pick. He may wind up costing them a third round pick. Ken Rosenthal and Fox sports reported that the Orioles have inquired on Matt Holliday. Holliday is also a type A pick and would punt the Braves second round pick to a third round pick as Gonzalez has a lower Elias ranking. In this scenario, Holliday is very much worth giving up a second round pick and Gonzalez is worth a third rounder. Roch Kobatko has mentioned though that such a possibility is unlikely. He has heard very little about the Orioles being interested in Matt Holliday as well as in another rumor involving Adrian Gonzalez. Andy MacPhail runs a pretty tight ship these days, but one would expect Roch would have a good handle on this.

How does the Gonzalez signing make sense for the Orioles?
The Orioles were in "need" of a closer. I think they had internal options that were not incredibly worse than Gonzalez, so I do not think this is entirely true. What the signing does accomplish is via a push down effect. By bringing in a top tier reliever it pushes everyone else down in their role, strengthening the pen in general by casting out the 7th member. This means that although there is minimal improvement from Uehara/Johnson to Gonzalez. There is improvement of about a win from Sarfate/Albers to Gonzalez. Still it is about a win.

I have his next two years at a value of 13.8MM and his baseline is 12MM. Add in the average value of a second round pick and that is essentially a push at a loss of 0.7MM in value. Now, if he hits his incentives, which are probably based on appearances and awards, this might be a worse deal if the Orioles are paying 8MM a year to Gonzalez.

How does Garrett Atkins make sense?
Atkins is both easier and harder to evaluate in terms of worth. First off, he signed a one year deal, which helps keep the roster flexible. Second, he is adequate defensively at both first and third base. The difficulty in evaluating this move is that we do not know what the cost was and we do not really know what Atkins is capable of. Atkins is basically in a four year slide. True, his BABIP was about 70 points lower than it should have been given his hit type peripherals, but he has seen a noticeable decline in his home run per fly rate. That is a rather large red flag. Atkins is supposed to come in as a power oriented right handed bat, but it is difficult to see how that really differs from what we already have in Ty Wigginton.

What does make this move work for the Orioles is that it does two things: 1) it removes Mike Aubrey from the lineup and 2) it moves Ty Wigginton from third base to first base, replacing him with Atkins whose glove is slightly better than Ty's. The difference between Aubrey and Atkins as predicted by CHONE is a difference of about 40ops coming mainly from on base percentage, which is worth slightly more than slugging. About half a win in runs is saved by moving Ty Wigginton off of third base.

Where we stand?

Batting Wins Above Average: 22.0 (20.8)
Pitching Wins Above Average: 11.3 (10.2)

Total Wins Above Average: 33.3 (+2.3 wins from Millwood acquistion)
Predicted Wins: 76.8 (74.5)

AL East Playoff (95 wins): 18.2 wins to go

How will Andy fill out the roster?

With the tender deadline come and gone, we have a better idea of the talent market and what may be available. Andy MacPhail has identified several areas that he seeks to find improvements: first base, third base, starting pitcher, LOOGY, and a closer. In this post, we'll take a look who we currently have on the roster to play the positions on Opening Day and three free agent choices. The choices with be defined as: the best chance to win (based on CHONE projections), what I would do, and most probable.

Follow after the jump.


First Base

Current: Michael Aubrey, 28yo, estimate line 262/300/415
That estimated line is pretty harsh for a starting first baseman, but really is not very far away from the production Baltimore saw from their first basemen last year (262/318/411). That fact alone shows how the only direction to go is up. With Ty Wigginton (est 267/321/444) on the team, it is unlikely he is on the team on Opening Day as any first base or third base addition will probably mean him being left off the 25 man roster and exposed to waivers. The team is also trying to put more right handed bats in the lineup, which also does not play to Aubrey benefit.

For the Win: Nick Johnson, 31yo, estimated line 264/394/407
People often forget how useful it is to not make an out. Johnson lacks the gap power he used to possess, but he still has very good pitch recognition and plate discipline. It was suggested, by Rosenthal if I remember correctly, that Johnson would sign a two year deal for 18MM. I doubt that. There are real concerns about his health, so a team can probably only assume about 400 at bats from him. Still, with those at bats and about 300 from Wigginton . . . that is still better production than what you would expect from Russell Branyan or Adam LaRoche. Johnson's lefthanded-ness should not be a factor as he has never shown a platoon split issue. The net effect of replacing Aubrey's innings with Johnson's is 2.2 wins, which is worth close to the suggestion I read (9MM/year). This leaves the team at 76.7 wins.

What would I do: Nick Johnson, 31yo, estimated line 264/394/407
Getting on base is important and has been an aspect of the Orioles play that needs a great deal of improvement. Johnson will not last the entire season, but he should be able to provide enough innings to make up for the time Wigginton plays or when Snyder shows himself to be ready. This team as well is up to 76.7 wins.

What would Andy do: Nick Johnson, 31yo, estimated line 264/394/407
Johnson does not have the platoon split that worries MacPhail about the construction of the lineup. Johnson is also known to be a professional and has worked well with young teams in Montreal, Washington, and Florida. He should also be available on a one year or one plus one deal at about 5MM or so. The team has enough backup options at first that this does not seem to be a problem. Other options like Russell Branyan (one big season and platoon issues), Adam LaRoche (contact oriented hitter with poor contact and fluctuating performance, desire for a three year contract), and Carlos Delgado (not really a first baseman anymore, concerns about injury effect on hitting, past issues with non-playoff teams) seem to pose more problems than what they solve. Delgado is probably the fan's choice because of our familiarity with him and what he has done. He just might not be able to continue that. This team also sits at 76.7 wins.

Third Base

Current: Ty Wigginton, 32yo, estimate line 267/321/444
Wigginton is not going to work out here. MacPhail has said he wants a defensive third baseman and Wigginton is anything but that. Offensively, it would be a great improvement as the collective line last year was 262/318/373. It was a very rough year for Orioles third basemen. If no one is picked up, I could see Scott Moore being given a chance to finally start at third. He projects as average defensively and a batting line of 253/325/445. His issue has been Major League quality offspeed pitches, so that line based on MLEs might be quite optimistic.

For the Win: Adrien Beltre, 31yo, estimated line 270/320/446
The offensive line is about the same, but Beltre's defense is about 15 runs better. This results in an increase of 1.9 wins to 78.4 wins as this improves the majority of the starting defense, but also improves the backup offense from Turner to Wigginton. Getting out of SafeCo will help Beltre and change people's perception of his bat. After a breakout offensive season his last year in LA, he signed big money to go to a park that completely killed his line drive style of power. The contract seems to have come out alright as most defensive metrics rate him as the best defensive third baseman over that time frame. One could argue that although he was paid to hit, he made up for the value with his glove. I would probably argue that defensive runs saved cost less on the open market than offensive runs produced. Anyway, majors obstacles to sign him would be that he is pushing for 10MM a year and wanted a three year deal. Even though he wishes to stay out West, he will probably take whatever is the richest contract.


What would I do: Joe Crede, 32yo, estimated line 250/312/434
I struggled between Crede, Troy Glaus, and Garrett Atkins. Troy Glaus has been off the grid lately, which is typically not a good thing. He used to have a prime bat and a solid average glove. No press for a free agent during the Winter Meetings is typically a very bad sign. I am questioning his health. Risk of injury does not concern me as much with Wigginton, Moore, and Turner around. None of them are ideal, but they can be used as filler. With Garrett Atkins, you have the issue of a potentially crippling bat and a crippling glove. The play on him would be that he could somehow rewind his career by a couple of years. That sounds like a good MiL invite to Spring Training, but not something to bank on. Crede, though, provides good defense, decent pop, and should be an easy one year deal with injury potential to push Josh Bell. Wins increased by 1.2 to 77.9 wins.

What would Andy do: Juan Uribe, 30yo, estimated line 251/297/415
This is a bit of a bold prediction as no one has heard his name mentioned in connection with the Orioles, but hear me out. He has several attributes that could be of benefit to the team and things that MacPhail would want. First, he is flexible. He can play third base average to above average and is workable at shortstop or second base. His range is limited, so you would not care to start him at either slot . . . but he could spell Izturis if needed and open a roster slot there. Taking Robert Andino off the bench could be useful. Second, as mentioned his defense at third base is solid. He has good quickness and his arm is strong. His bat is a little meager to play off short, but he is potentially solid replacement. Third, as poor as his defense is at short, he does provide some level of coverage in case no solutions are found next year and Izturis leaves. He could probably be signed to a 2 year deal. I doubt though that he replicates last season at the plate where he went 289/329/495. Wins rise by 0.7 to 77.4 wins.

Starting Pitching (First man out of Norfolk)
Current: Jake Arrieta, 24yo, estimate era 5.37
The position at play here is supposedly one that would enable said pitcher to rise up in late May or early June and take over a slot for an injured or underperforming pitcher in the starting rotation. About one team a year goes through six or less starters, so this is a decent perspective to have. Though, it is typically a perspective that playoff teams bank on as opposed to also-rans. Arrieta will hopefully provide above replacement level performance.

For the Win: Erik Bedard, 31yo, estimated era 3.69
Bedard is the clear winner here. Sheets is his main competition, but he seems to be driving a hard bargain and has not been competitive in over a year. Bedard might have a shorter path back although probably just as probable to suffer another injury. Both pitchers aim to add about 2.2 wins over the course of pitching 100 innings. This brings this scenario to 80.6 wins.

What would I do: Erik Bedard, 31yo, estimated era 3.69
Bedard is who I would take as well. Sheets' attitude to vocally drive his price and his time off are a concern to me. I think both will be hard pressed to throw more than 100 innings. Bedard adds 2.2 wins, so this group stands at 80.1 wins.

What would Andy do: Kelvim Escobar, 34yo, estimated era 3.96
The Orioles have inquired on Escobar and I think, in the end, this will be the choice. Bedard will probably have his price driven up by the Red Sox or Yankees as a mid season replacement. The Mets should probably entertain that. Actually, the Mets should take all of the money they are willing to spend on Lackey and just roll the dice with Bedard, Sheets, and Duchscherer. Anyway, Escobar is someone who has experience starting and relieving. He used to be pretty good and he is trying to make his way back in. I could see an incentive laden one plus one deal here. I also think it is more likely he sees about 50 innings. This should take this group to 78.3 wins.

Lefty One Out Guy (LOOGY)
Current: No one
We really do not have one. Wilfrido Perez is the closest thing and his injury prognosis is not very good.

For the Win: Darren Oliver, 39yo, estimated era 3.48
Very solid left handed reliever who under a limited number of innings can still affect a team to great extent win-wise. His only detraction is his age, which can result in performance quickly deteriorating. Still he has been automatic in relief and is capable of being stretch to multiple innings on occasion, which will be a help with a young rotation. This addition would add about 0.9 wins making the total 81.5 wins.

What would I do: Ryota Igarashi, 35yo, estimated era 3.50
Igarashi has not yet pitched in the Majors. While Japanese starting pitchers have not fare well in translating to the Majors (about a 20% decline in performance), relievers have typically not missed a beat jumping from one league to the other. Without a track record in the Majors or the lofty non-arbed Type A status Oliver has, Igarashi's price should be quite a bit lower with similar production. A multi-year deal here might be a good idea. Win total now stands at 80.8 wins.

What would Andy do: Joe Beimel, 33yo, estimated era 3.81
The Orioles were in on Beimel and Ohman last year and this could be the case this year as well. Another name to think about would be Casey Fossum. Although Igarashi has been linked to the team in the Japanese press to a great extent and that the Japanese press were in on the Uehara movement last year far, far earlier than the local press . . . it seems peculiar that journalists like Roch Kobatko have not even heard of the connection. They were at least slightly aware of the Uehara rumblings. With their frustration with Uehara added in, maybe Igarashi is not the guy. Beimel would knock the total up to 79 wins.

Closer
Current: Jim Johnson, 27yo, 3.94
Johnson is not going to close. He looked completely uncomfortable in that setting. Clutch hitting may not exist, but clutch pitching certainly does and Johnson just does not seem to have the state of mind to really succeed there. Uehara could be a decent solution. He was a closer in Japan and was fairly successful at it. The concern is that he may not be fully recovered from him injury and pitching back to back nights may not be something he can do with his health.

For the Win: Jose Valverde, 32yo, estimated era 3.47
Valverde is a rich hire as he will probably cost 8-10MM and you will lose a second round pick here. He really is not that great of a closer to give up that value. He is the best on the market though and can help a team. Added win value is 1.3, raising the total to 82.8 wins.

What would I do: Koji Uehara, 35yo, estimated era 3.82
I think our internal options are good enough. I don't see the need in going outside. I think established front line guys like Valverde are a waste of money and a draft pick. Signing a player like Fernando Rodney is betting large on a multiyear deal that the guy can finally pitch his 2 seamer off his change. Signing a non-closer like Kiko Calero or an retro one like Octavio Dotel is just throwing money when we have other options. Maybe a Dotel or Calero signing would have a positive push down effect, but is that really worth about 4MM to save five runs? I still stuck at 80.8 wins.

What would Andy do: Fernando Rodney, 33yo, estimated era 4.58
I think the Orioles want him because he has closed and has been successful at it. Maybe they saw the same thing as I did last year and think he may have finally figured out how to use his 2 seamer. He walks a lot and that means hits against him are typically worse for him than others who have less people on the basepaths. This move most likely will be a multiyear deal and CHONE thinks it is a loss of -0.1 wins. It would be greater, but pushing down Johnson or Koji does improve the bullpen in general. Final tally is 78.9 wins.

Conclusion
As it stands: 74.5 wins
For the win: 82.8 wins
What I would do: 80.8 wins
What would Andy do: 78.9 wins

That said . . . it makes little sense to go the win approach given the holes MacPhail has mentioned. A much greater refitting would need to occur. Pieces probably are not even available on the free agency market, so trades would need to be explored.

EDIT: I had mistakenly thought Igarashi was left-handed. Feel free to ignore that. I'm getting international free agents mixed up. I mixed handedness with Takahashi, who I would not want any part of. So . . . who instead? No one of note. I would resign Hendrickson and have him be more exclusive as a LOOGY. I would also invite whatever lefties are out on the scrap heap in spring training and see if anything sticks. For where this team is, a LOOGY makes sense to me only if it means something for the future. Beimel, Fossum, and Ohman should fit in the mix, too.

Projected Win Total: Post Millwood-Ray Trade

This will be a recurring feature as long as the Orioles actually continue to sign and/or trade for players. I will be using the CHONE database and a WAR prediction scheme based on OBP, SLG, and plate appearance. Assuming the predictions are correct (which is a pretty big assumption with CHONE's r value around 0.7 . . . which is good but not oracle good), the final win total should be around 5 wins of the projected win total.

New Addition:
Kevin Millwood
Prediction . . . 180IP 112k 64bb 21hr 4.83 era

What does this mean for the team? Check after the jump.

Here is a run down of the squad
C Matt Wieters 344/447
C Chad Moeller 269/314
1B Micheal Aubrey 300/415
2B Brian Roberts 355/423
3B Ty Wigginton 321/444
SS Cesar Izturis 304/337
INF Robert Andino 296/362
INF Justin Turner 325/364
OF Nick Markakis 369/477
OF Adam Jones 338/472
OF Nolan Reimold 353/474
OF Feliz Pie 325/418
OF Luke Scott 335/469

SP Kevin Millwood - 4.83
SP Jeremy Guthrie - 4.60
SP Brad Bergesen - 4.72
SP Brian Matusz - 4.59
SP Chris Tillman - 5.00
SP Replacement Level ~100 IP - 5.81
CL Koji Uehara - 3.82
SU Jim Johnson - 3.94
RP David Hernandez - 4.73 (applied 10% improvement with shift to pen)
RP Cla Meredith - 4.22
RP Dennis Sarfate - 4.24
RP Matt Albers - 4.42
RP Kam Mickolio - 4.76
RP Replacement Level ~50 IP - 4.75

Batting Wins Above Average = 20.8
Pitching Wins Above Average = 10.2

Wins Above Average = 31.0

Predicted Wins = 74.5

AL East Playoff at 95 wins, wins to go: 20.5