The Orioles Have Been Bad In Many Areas

You only need to look at the Orioles' record (5-12) and run differential (-37) to know they've had a rough start to the year. They haven't won many games, and they've been outscored by a lot.

As you'd imagine, they've struggled in plenty of ways. This isn't an exhaustive breakdown, but here are some areas in which they've been very bad. First, the offense:

• Scoring runs: 3.19 runs per game (2nd worst in AL)
• Getting on base: .286 OBP (2nd worst in AL)
• Avoiding strikeouts: 28.2 K% (MLB worst)
• Also have the 2nd most caught looking Ks (38) in the majors
• Hitting the ball hard (28.0 hard-hit percentage, worst in AL)
• Making contact (71.9 Contact%, worst in MLB) 
• 2nd worst in both out-of-zone contact and in-zone contact

How about the pitching struggles?

• Limiting runs: 5.38 runs allowed per game (3rd worst in AL)
• Avoiding bullpen usage: 5.0 IP per start (tied for 2nd worst in AL)
• Keeping runners off base (1.50 WHIP, 2nd worst in AL)

And the fielding? That actually depends which metric you use (and yes, it's incredibly early to be looking at fielding metrics):

• 16th in MLB in FanGraphs' defensive runs above average (DEF)
• 6th in UZR/150
• 26th in DRS

I can't imagine this O's defense will rate anything better than average as the year goes on. The battle lines of Manny Machado playing shortstop have been drawn (I'm still in favor but also never thought it was a huge deal), but no matter what, I don't think anyone wants to see Danny Valencia playing third base anymore.

So Orioles batters are not scoring runs, getting on base, putting the ball in play, hitting the ball hard, or making much contact. Jonathan Schoop (out with a quad injury), Adam Jones, Danny Valencia, Anthony Santander, Tim Beckham, Chris Davis, Colby Rasmus (hip injury), and Caleb Joseph all have a wRC+ under 70 (with several far below that mark). O's starting pitchers, collectively, are not going longer in games, and they're not keeping runners off base. With each start, Chris Tillman's hold on a roster spot gets even more tenuous. And while the fielding has maybe been OK, it hasn't helped pitchers to keep runs off the board. These are all significant problems.

The Orioles have not had much go right. They need a healthy Schoop back as soon as possible, and they need a significant chunk of the team to play better. And they need to do it soon, before things get really bad and the team digs a large enough hole that they can't climb out of. I hope Buck still likes his guys because they're all he's got.

Photo via Keith Allison. Stats, from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, as of April 17.

Trade Manny Now? Historically, Not Happening.

It is not uncommon to hear the rising volume of those who wish for the Orioles to sell their pieces and build for the future.  That crowd is growing in size.  It was a small patter before the 2017 season and has grown steadily since then.  The noise, noticeable but not overwhelming, feels like it is about to become a wall of sound overtaking all other talk this year.

The articles are coming out.  The departure of several veterans after this season and the poor start of this 2018 campaign has made the Orioles an easy column to tap away.  They have pieces that others might well desire and those pieces could help replenish a system that was heavily neglected for years.  The recent, quite impressive, success of the the Duquette era feels like a mix of Andy MacPhail bricks, Duquette's mortar, and a whole lot of Orioles magic.  That mix seems to have run out.

Will Leitch filed his column on the Orioles and chewed on the possibilities.  The basic refrain was that it was early, but that the early returns for the Orioles were terrible and the club should very well get on with it.  On some level, this makes sense if you think this season will not bear fruit, but, generally, this is not the case for a club not even 20% of the way into the season.

April is not a time for major trades.  You have to wait for that.  You have to wait for team to accept (maybe their fan bases to accept) that there simply is not enough juice in the club to compete this season.  You have to wait for other clubs to conclude that their solution for a position failed and they really need a good solution to replace that idea that did not work out.  These things take time to assess and move on.

Billy Beane would say that the first two months of the season were solely about figuring out how you screwed up the offseason.  Once equipped with that information, you can then use the next two months to figure a way out of the mess you created.  Still, one hears that murmur in Baltimore that trades should happen right now.

Since 2009, there have been 37 trades from April 15th to the end of the month.  In 2009, 2010, 2015, 2016, and 2017, the trades were for fringe players going one way and money or PTBNLs going in the other way.  They were all post-shine players.  Guys who once looked interested and simply wore off that shine.  They then would go somewhere else to a team that still had that hope.

However, there have been a few deals where players were immediately exchanged.

In 2011,
1) Chris Malone going from the Rockies to the Jays for Brad Emaus
2) Danny Farquhar leaving the A's for the Jays in exchange for David Purcey
In 2012,
1) Josh Bell leaving the Orioles to the DBacks for Mike Belfiore
2) Red Sox bidding adieu to Michael Bowden for the Cubs Marlon Byrd
In 2013,
Chris Snyder left the Angels to go to the Orioles for Rob Delaney
In 2014,
A post-shine Ike Davis took up with the Pirates in exchange for sending Zach Thornton to the Mets

The most anyone got for their troubles was a little fringe bullpen action.  No one gave back one WAR to the teams acquiring a player.

What this all means is that you are going to have to wait.  Teams are figuring out themselves.  They are trying to determine their true needs and what they are willing to give up to fill those needs for a playoff run.  That typically means mid-June or later.  So take a breath and enjoy Manny for a few weeks more before he may head off to another pasture.

Dylan Bundy's Fast Start

The Orioles (5-11, -35 run differential) have been lousy. Dylan Bundy, though, has been outstanding. After four starts, he's thrown nearly 26 innings while posting an ERA of 1.40 and a FIP of 1.97. In each start, he's gone at least 5.2 innings, allowed two earned runs or fewer, and struck out at least six batters. That puts him in rare company in Orioles team history.

In the Expansion Era (since 1961), Bundy tops the list of Orioles starting pitchers with consecutive starts of at least 5.2 IP, 2 ER or fewer, and at least 6 strikeouts to begin a season (via Baseball-Reference's Play Index):

Results

Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
1	Dylan Bundy	2018-03-29	2018-04-15	4	25.2	4	7	31
2	Steve Johnson	2012-08-08	2012-08-25	2	12.0	4	4	16
3	Rich Hill	2009-05-16	2009-05-22	2	11.1	4	6	12
4	Garrett Olson	2008-04-29	2008-05-05	2	13.0	3	6	13
5	Dave Schmidt	1987-06-09	1987-06-14	2	13.1	1	2	12
6	Ken Dixon	1985-04-20	1985-04-25	2	15.2	2	5	13
7	Dave McNally	1968-04-17	1968-04-22	2	18.0	2	2	13
8	Tom Phoebus	1966-09-15	1966-09-20	2	18.0	0	5	15
9	Dave McNally	1963-04-20	1963-04-27	2	17.0	3	3	15
10	Dylan Bundy	2017-04-05	2017-04-05	1	7.0	1	0	8
11	Ubaldo Jimenez	2016-04-07	2016-04-07	1	7.0	1	0	9
12	Mike Wright	2015-05-17	2015-05-17	1	7.1	0	0	6
13	Ubaldo Jimenez	2015-04-11	2015-04-11	1	7.0	0	1	8
14	Bud Norris	2013-08-01	2013-08-01	1	6.0	2	2	8
15	Scott Feldman	2013-07-03	2013-07-03	1	6.0	2	0	6
16	Miguel Gonzalez	2012-07-06	2012-07-06	1	7.0	1	2	6
17	Chris Tillman	2012-07-04	2012-07-04	1	8.1	0	2	7
18	Wei-Yin Chen	2012-04-10	2012-04-10	1	5.2	2	1	6
19	Zach Britton	2011-04-03	2011-04-03	1	6.0	1	3	6
20	Jeremy Guthrie	2011-04-01	2011-04-01	1	8.0	0	1	6
21	Bruce Chen	2005-04-09	2005-04-09	1	6.0	2	0	6
22	Rick Bauer	2004-09-29	2004-09-29	1	6.0	0	1	7
23	Dave Borkowski	2004-07-05	2004-07-05	1	8.1	2	1	6
24	Jason Johnson	2002-04-03	2002-04-03	1	7.2	1	1	6
25	Jason Johnson	2001-04-05	2001-04-05	1	8.1	1	1	6
Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
26	Sidney Ponson	2001-04-04	2001-04-04	1	7.1	2	1	10
27	Pat Hentgen	2001-04-02	2001-04-02	1	8.2	1	1	6
28	David Wells	1996-04-03	1996-04-03	1	7.0	1	3	6
29	Rick Krivda	1995-07-07	1995-07-07	1	5.2	2	2	7
30	Mike Mussina	1993-04-07	1993-04-07	1	8.0	1	1	9
31	Ben McDonald	1992-04-09	1992-04-09	1	9.0	0	1	9
32	Rick Sutcliffe	1992-04-06	1992-04-06	1	9.0	0	1	6
33	Eric Bell	1987-04-12	1987-04-12	1	6.1	1	2	7
34	Mike Boddicker	1985-04-10	1985-04-10	1	6.0	1	4	6
35	Mike Boddicker	1983-05-17	1983-05-17	1	9.0	0	1	8
36	Jim Palmer	1978-04-15	1978-04-15	1	9.0	0	1	7
37	Mike Flanagan	1977-04-19	1977-04-19	1	9.0	2	2	6
38	Rudy May	1976-06-18	1976-06-18	1	8.1	2	3	6
39	Grant Jackson	1971-06-22	1971-06-22	1	6.2	0	1	7
40	Dave McNally	1971-04-07	1971-04-07	1	9.0	2	1	6
41	Dave McNally	1970-04-07	1970-04-07	1	9.0	2	3	13
42	Jim Palmer	1969-04-13	1969-04-13	1	9.0	0	3	8
43	Mike Cuellar	1969-04-10	1969-04-10	1	10.0	0	3	6
44	Tom Phoebus	1968-04-10	1968-04-10	1	7.1	1	2	6
45	Pete Richert	1967-06-03	1967-06-03	1	8.0	2	2	6
46	Frank Bertaina	1967-05-18	1967-05-18	1	6.0	1	4	6
47	Moe Drabowsky	1966-08-12	1966-08-12	1	8.2	0	3	7
48	John Miller	1966-05-10	1966-05-10	1	6.1	2	1	7
49	Jim Palmer	1966-04-13	1966-04-13	1	9.0	1	8	6
50	Steve Barber	1964-04-17	1964-04-17	1	5.2	2	4	7
Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
51	Dick Hall	1962-07-28	1962-07-28	1	9.0	1	0	12
52	Steve Barber	1962-04-15	1962-04-15	1	9.0	1	6	7
53	Jack Fisher	1961-04-14	1961-04-14	1	6.2	2	0	7

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/16/2018.

Coming out of the gate, Bundy has been wonderful. It's a shame the O's haven't taken advantage; after Sunday's loss in Boston, they're now 1-3 in his starts and have scored just seven runs in those four games.

If Bundy is going to catch the O's leader for most consecutive starts with 5.2 IP, 2 ER or fewer, and 6+ strikeouts (not just to start the season), he still has three more to go:

Results

Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
1	Erik Bedard	2006-06-21	2006-07-28	7	50.0	6	11	54
2	Erik Bedard	2007-07-07	2007-07-31	5	35.0	4	12	47
3	Dave McNally	1966-07-03	1966-07-27	5	40.2	8	12	37
4	Dylan Bundy	2018-03-29	2018-04-15	4	25.2	4	7	31
5	Kevin Gausman	2017-07-19	2017-08-04	4	27.2	2	9	32
6	Mike Mussina	1995-07-23	1995-08-07	4	31.0	4	8	25
7	Ben McDonald	1993-09-01	1993-09-17	4	33.1	5	10	29
8	Steve Stone	1980-06-12	1980-06-26	4	36.0	4	13	33
9	Ubaldo Jimenez	2017-07-26	2017-08-06	3	18.2	4	7	21
10	Zach Britton	2012-08-24	2012-09-04	3	21.2	3	4	24
11	Jake Arrieta	2011-05-04	2011-05-15	3	19.0	5	8	21
12	Erik Bedard	2007-06-15	2007-06-27	3	20.0	4	1	26
13	Erik Bedard	2005-04-23	2005-05-04	3	23.0	1	3	25
14	Mike Mussina	2000-08-21	2000-08-31	3	21.0	1	2	21
15	Scott Kamieniecki	1997-07-30	1997-08-15	3	20.2	3	7	20
16	Mike Mussina	1995-09-21	1995-10-01	3	27.0	1	7	21
17	Ken Dixon	1986-07-02	1986-07-11	3	26.0	2	6	26
18	Mike Flanagan	1979-08-09	1979-08-20	3	30.0	2	5	29
19	Jim Palmer	1977-09-12	1977-09-20	3	26.0	3	5	20
20	Jim Palmer	1977-04-12	1977-04-24	3	27.0	1	4	20
21	Mike Cuellar	1973-07-11	1973-07-19	3	29.0	3	6	27
22	Jim Palmer	1972-08-19	1972-08-28	3	27.0	1	8	26
23	Jim Palmer	1972-05-05	1972-05-15	3	25.0	6	4	25
24	Jim Palmer	1971-04-29	1971-05-09	3	25.0	5	6	24
25	Dave McNally	1968-07-05	1968-07-15	3	24.2	4	7	21
Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
26	Tom Phoebus	1968-07-03	1968-07-13	3	26.0	2	9	30
27	John Miller	1966-08-26	1966-09-05	3	22.0	5	13	22
28	Milt Pappas	1964-08-25	1964-09-02	3	25.0	2	2	26
29	Steve Barber	1963-04-17	1963-04-25	3	26.2	3	9	25
30	Chuck Estrada	1962-06-19	1962-06-29	3	24.0	3	7	21
31	Kevin Gausman	2017-09-13	2017-09-19	2	15.0	1	2	13
32	Wade Miley	2017-04-20	2017-04-25	2	15.0	3	7	19
33	Kevin Gausman	2016-08-28	2016-09-03	2	13.0	0	2	17
34	Kevin Gausman	2016-08-03	2016-08-08	2	13.0	4	3	13
35	Dylan Bundy	2016-08-02	2016-08-07	2	13.0	2	2	16
36	Kevin Gausman	2016-07-18	2016-07-23	2	13.2	2	4	13
37	Chris Tillman	2016-06-08	2016-06-14	2	14.1	1	2	16
38	Chris Tillman	2016-05-13	2016-05-18	2	13.1	2	5	13
39	Chris Tillman	2016-04-27	2016-05-03	2	13.2	1	6	18
40	Wei-Yin Chen	2015-09-19	2015-09-26	2	12.2	3	2	14
41	Chris Tillman	2015-07-10	2015-07-18	2	14.0	2	2	14
42	Ubaldo Jimenez	2015-05-11	2015-05-16	2	14.0	4	2	15
43	Wei-Yin Chen	2015-05-09	2015-05-15	2	14.0	3	3	14
44	Chris Tillman	2014-09-14	2014-09-20	2	13.2	3	3	12
45	Kevin Gausman	2014-09-06	2014-09-12	2	14.0	2	6	14
46	Miguel Gonzalez	2014-08-29	2014-09-03	2	16.0	1	2	14
47	Chris Tillman	2014-08-03	2014-08-08	2	13.2	2	1	13
48	Miguel Gonzalez	2014-05-10	2014-05-20	2	13.0	4	2	13
49	Chris Tillman	2013-08-24	2013-08-29	2	15.0	3	2	17
50	Chris Tillman	2013-07-21	2013-07-26	2	15.0	2	6	15
Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
51	Jason Hammel	2013-05-22	2013-05-27	2	14.2	4	2	14
52	Steve Johnson	2012-08-08	2012-08-25	2	12.0	4	4	16
53	Jason Hammel	2012-06-16	2012-06-22	2	17.0	0	2	18
54	Jason Hammel	2012-04-19	2012-04-25	2	13.0	2	4	17
55	Brian Matusz	2010-09-27	2010-10-02	2	13.0	1	4	17
56	Jeremy Guthrie	2010-07-17	2010-07-23	2	13.2	3	1	12
57	Rich Hill	2009-05-16	2009-05-22	2	11.1	4	6	12
58	Garrett Olson	2008-04-29	2008-05-05	2	13.0	3	6	13
59	Erik Bedard	2007-08-15	2007-08-21	2	14.0	2	2	19
60	Jeremy Guthrie	2007-06-20	2007-06-26	2	14.1	3	2	15
61	Erik Bedard	2007-05-20	2007-05-25	2	14.0	3	6	20
62	Daniel Cabrera	2006-08-19	2006-08-25	2	16.0	0	5	17
63	Daniel Cabrera	2006-04-28	2006-05-03	2	14.0	3	3	12
64	Daniel Cabrera	2005-09-06	2005-09-12	2	12.2	2	3	17
65	Erik Bedard	2005-05-21	2005-07-18	2	13.0	0	4	14
66	Daniel Cabrera	2005-05-03	2005-05-09	2	16.0	1	6	19
67	Rodrigo Lopez	2004-09-21	2004-09-26	2	16.0	1	4	14
68	Erik Bedard	2004-08-06	2004-08-11	2	12.0	2	8	13
69	Rodrigo Lopez	2003-07-01	2003-07-06	2	13.2	2	0	14
70	Sidney Ponson	2003-05-03	2003-05-09	2	15.0	2	3	15
71	Mike Mussina	2000-09-24	2000-09-30	2	13.1	1	1	22
72	Mike Mussina	2000-06-11	2000-06-16	2	14.2	4	3	12
73	Mike Mussina	1999-09-24	1999-09-30	2	13.0	0	2	18
74	Juan Guzman	1999-06-23	1999-06-29	2	12.2	3	7	15
75	Mike Mussina	1999-06-18	1999-06-24	2	18.0	4	1	19
Rk	Name	Strk Start	End	Games	IP	ER	BB	SO
76	Scott Erickson	1998-07-05	1998-07-11	2	16.2	2	5	15
77	Scott Erickson	1998-05-21	1998-05-26	2	15.2	3	5	17
78	Mike Mussina	1997-08-28	1997-09-02	2	14.0	4	1	19
79	Scott Erickson	1997-07-27	1997-08-01	2	17.0	0	2	15
80	Mike Mussina	1997-06-25	1997-06-30	2	17.0	2	2	21
81	Jimmy Key	1997-06-08	1997-06-13	2	13.2	2	4	15
82	Mike Mussina	1997-05-03	1997-05-08	2	13.1	3	3	15
83	Mike Mussina	1997-04-17	1997-04-22	2	15.0	2	1	13
84	Rocky Coppinger	1996-09-21	1996-09-26	2	15.1	2	4	13
85	Mike Mussina	1996-04-28	1996-05-04	2	14.2	3	5	15
86	Ben McDonald	1995-05-31	1995-06-05	2	17.0	4	2	15
87	Mike Mussina	1994-06-21	1994-06-26	2	16.0	1	2	14
88	Mike Mussina	1993-08-31	1993-09-05	2	16.2	4	4	14
89	Jamie Moyer	1993-08-18	1993-08-24	2	17.0	1	3	15
90	Ben McDonald	1992-09-29	1992-10-04	2	16.0	1	4	15
91	Arthur Rhodes	1992-09-15	1992-09-23	2	15.2	2	6	13
92	Mike Mussina	1992-09-05	1992-09-11	2	17.0	3	4	17
93	Arthur Rhodes	1992-07-24	1992-07-29	2	17.0	2	4	15
94	Ben McDonald	1991-09-08	1992-04-09	2	16.0	2	2	16
95	Ben McDonald	1990-09-07	1990-09-12	2	17.0	3	4	13
96	Bob Milacki	1989-05-28	1989-06-02	2	16.1	2	4	12
97	Oswaldo Peraza	1988-08-02	1988-08-06	2	16.0	2	5	16
98	Eric Bell	1987-07-17	1987-07-23	2	17.2	2	3	21
99	Dave Schmidt	1987-06-09	1987-06-14	2	13.1	1	2	12
100	Mike Boddicker	1986-09-21	1986-09-26	2	14.1	3	6	14

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/16/2018.

It's easy to take for granted just how good Erik Bedard was for a few years during the Orioles' Dark Ages, but he was superb in 2006 and 2007.

If you're curious, out of all teams, Randy Johnson had the most such starts to begin a season during the Expansion Era, with nine. And the longest run of such starts spanning multiple seasons was by Pedro Martinez, with 15 (1999-2000), and in any single season by Randy Johnson, with 14 (1999).