Orioles Starting Pitching Was Not A Weak Part Of 2016 Club

In the aftermath of success or failure, explanations skitter around until conventional wisdom settles on a final narrative.  That narrative may be accurate, indulged, or utterly wrong.  An astute observer understands this and does their best to challenge these ideas in order to bring oneself closer to whatever the truth is likely to be.

As I understand the conventional wisdom of the 2016 Orioles, I have heard these primary conclusions:
1. Starting Pitching was a train wreck.
2. Chris Davis failed in his first year on a major contract.
3. Jonathan Schoop broke out.
4. Trumbo's magnificent bat in right field saved club.
5. The Relief Corps was the heart of the club.
Out of those conclusions, some are likely to be true and others not so much.

One way we often look at value by position is to use Wins Above Average.  One way to calculate that is Baseball Reference's version, which takes into account, roughly, what actually happens on the field in comparison to FanGraphs', which, again roughly, tries to figure out the underlying value of the events on the field as opposed to what actually occurred.  Anyway, various perspectives look at both and have ideas about how they each handle uncertainty, but for the purposes here we are simply going to go with Baseball Reference to look through the conclusions above.

Below is a graph of Orioles Wins Above Average for American League clubs.  The whiskers illustrate the entire range of performance among AL teams.  This sort of illustrations does better to show actual range of performance than a metric like WAR, which assumes a certain base level of play.  Year-to-year, base levels of play vary and it may be better to describe what happened last year by actually assessing what happened.

1. Starting Pitching was a Train Wreck Last Year
Well, if you remember the Zach Britton discussion about the Cy Young award, then you might remember how lackluster starting pitching was in the American League.  The graph above suggests that maybe the feeling that the starting pitching was a train wreck was true in comparison to league wide performance in year's past, but not this year.  The Orioles actually enjoyed the fifth best rotation in the AL, according to bWAA.

2. Chris Davis Fell Flat on his Face
First base was also a position in the AL where nothing much seemed to happen.  In fact, the Chris Davis led Orioles first base situation was found to be the third best outfit in the American League.

3. Jonathan Schoop Broke Out
Schoop actually was worth a win less per average American League second baseman.  His banner holding second base performance put the Orioles as having the 10th best second base crew in the American League.  Out of 15 teams, that is nothing much to write home about.

4. Trumbo's Magnificent Bat
The two positions Trumbo touched most, right field and designated hitter, were pretty awful with the Orioles ranked 12th and 9th in the AL, respectively.  In fact, if you combine the entire outfield performance then the Orioles ranked dead last in all of the AL.  Perhaps, what is missing is just how dreadful the outfield was last year and how the club could really improve themselves by shoring themselves up there.

5. Bullpen was the Heart of the Club
Of the five main talking points emerging from the season, this is the one that actually holds water quite well.  The club was pretty remarkable with bullpen performance.

Yeah, but how does overall team WAA compare to the actual club record?
The Orioles went 89-73 last year.  WAA expected them to go 86-76.  Considering Britton's fortune in the closer role, WAA did a decent job explaining the Orioles success.

Perhaps the actual talking points coming out of the season are that the starting pitching was average, Davis was one of the better first basemen in the league, Schoop is still full of unfulfilled promise, Trumbo's home runs hid a lot of rotten wood, and the bullpen really was quite precious.

What Happened To Manny Machado In The Second Half?

Manny Machado is the best player the Orioles have had in quite some time. He's so good that not only has he been able to improve some part of his game each season, but he's young enough at 24 to leave you wanting, and even expecting, more. That'll stop at some point, but we're not there yet.

Despite knee injuries that ended his 2013 and 2014 seasons, Machado was still able to increase his production at the plate in each of his first four major league seasons:

2012: 97 wRC+
2013: 102 wRC+
2014: 111 wRC+
2015: 134 wRC+

In 2016, Machado was well on his way to increasing his offensive production for the fifth straight year. In the first half of the season, he posted a wRC+ of 147 and was tied for fourth in position player wins above replacement with Jose Altuve (4.3).

But Machado fell off in the season's second half. He posted a 108 wRC+ in that span, which isn't terrible, but not what's expected of someone with Machado's talent. And although he wasn't alone in his second-half struggles (and many teammates performed far worse), his dip in production did drop his overall wRC+ to 129 and ended his extended stretch of improvement

So what happened? First, he didn't walk as much in the second half. Last year, Machado walked nearly 10% of the time. That was far and away the best of his career, and it also coincided with him transforming into a power hitter. His 35 home runs in 2015 were 23 more than the previous year. But in the first half of 2016, he walked 8% of the time, and that dropped to 5.6% in the second half. That's also factoring in nine intentional walks in 2016. In 2014 and 2015 combined, Machado was intentionally walked four times.

Machado also wasn't nearly as fortunate on batted balls in play in the second half. After posting a BABIP of .346 in the first half, that mark plummeted to .268 in the second half. He ended the year with a .309 BABIP, which is nearly identical to his career BABIP of .310.

Let's get back to plate discipline. Oddly enough, while Machado walked less, his strikeout percentage was nearly identical: 17.3% in the first half; 17.2% in the second half. Diving into some Brooks Baseball data, Machado actually swung less in the second half. He offered at about the same number of hard pitches (about 50%), but he swung about 3% and 4% less, respectively, against breaking and off-speed pitches. His whiff percentages were about the same for hard and breaking pitches, but he cut them almost in half against off-speed pitches.

Overall, Machado's plate discipline numbers look more like his 2014 numbers than his 2015 ones. In 2014 and 2016, he swung about half the time. In 2015, that number was at 43%. That year, he also chased fewer pitches but still made better contact on the ones he offered at outside the zone (inside as well).

Weird things happen over entire seasons, let alone parts of a single season. I wouldn't say there's anything that's cause for concern. Posting a wRC+ around 130, when combined with the value that Machado's outstanding defense at third base provides, might not make you the best player in baseball. But it gets you extremely close to the top. Besides, Machado may indeed have the skills to climb that next step.

Improving Pitch Framing in the Orioles Organization

As we have noted in previous posts, it is difficult to find a decent defensive catcher.  Also of note, we have mentioned how difficult it is to become a decent catcher.  Finally of note, we have delved a bit into how well catchers can frame a pitch to help their pitchers.  We have long been a champion of Caleb Joseph's ability to do this and, more recently, have also championed Francisco Pena.  Likewise, I have noted repeatedly how poor a catcher Chance Sisco has been.

Anyway, below is a table that shows estimated framing runs prevented and overall fielding runs above average.  The numbers are taken from Baseball Prospectus.

		Age	Frame	FRAA
Matt	Wieters	30	-4.4	-2.3
Caleb	Joseph	30	7	7.3
Francisco	Pena	26	8.2	8.4
Audrey	Perez	27	-10.2	-11.5
Chance	Sisco	21	-6.2	-11.3
Chris	O'Brien	26	-10.6	-10.6
Austin	Wynns	25	0.4	0.9
			-15.8	-19.1

What we see is that the upper minors and majors has no true consistency with respect to how well catchers can frame.  Wieters is below average. Joseph and Pena are excellent.  Perez, Sisco, and O'Brien are rather poor.  I would suggest that due to the difficulty in developing defensively as a catcher that these upper level positions should be saved for players who have already displayed good catching skills or someone who the team is desperately trying to make a catcher (i.e., Sisco).

With that in mind, I compiled a list of minor league free agent catchers to consider for placement in Bowie and Norfolk.  The two names that really jump out on this list are Willians Astudillo, a short and stout catcher, and Sebastian Valle.  For me, Astudillo seems like the one to aggressively go after.  He has shown good contact skills in addition to his defense.  He also has shown enough athleticism to play third base.  He has no power to speak of, but those bat skills are as promising as free agent minor league catching bats can be.  He could be slated for his second tour of AA or given an opportunity to experience AAA.

Sebastian Valle may be 26 years old, but has 10 years of pro ball under his belt.  He is your typical minor league catch and throw guy who frames quite well.  He would be a solid, no hit option at AA or AAA as a backup.  I doubt the bat ever comes around as he has trouble with contact and plate discipline.  Tony Sanchez is a former number one pick who has had some offensive and defensive issues.  Good plate discipline and framing are his calling cards, but he needs the rest to come together.  He probably would look for more of a MLB opportunity.  Finally, Kellin Deglan is another guy who was highly regarded, but could never quite put it together.  He would be another good option for AA.

It is pretty amazing to think that if you extrapolated playing time for Joseph and Pena in Baltimore, Sisco and Astudillo in Norfolk, and Valle and Deglan in Bowie that the organization would win several more games.  Their runs prevented for those three levels would go from -15.8 runs to 54.7 runs, a difference of 70.5.  That is worth about eight wins over those three levels.  I imagine several pitchers in the organization would appreciate that.

>2000 chances		Age	Frame	FRAA
Willians	Astudillo	25	12.1	13
Sebastian	Valle	26	10.4	10
Tony	Sanchez	28	6.8	4.6
Kellin	Deglan	24	6.2	3.8
Michael	McKenry	31	5.6	4.5
Francisco	Arcia	27	5	5.9
Eddy	Rodriguez	30	4.6	3.8
Erik	Katz	36	4.3	3.8
Wilkin	Castillo	32	4.3	4.3
Rob	Brantly	27	2.8	3
Shawn	Zarraga	27	2.7	2.4
Carlos	Paulino	27	2	2.2	Marlins
Adrian	Nieto	27	1.7	2
Ali	Solis	29	1.6	2.7
David	Freitas	27	1.6	1.7
Stephen	McGee	25	1.6	1.6
Tim	Federowicz	29	1.3	1.1
Brian	Jeroloman	31	1.1	2
Jeff	Arnold	28	1	0.5	Giants
Rafael	Lopez	29	0.4	0.1
J.P.	Arencibia	30	-0.8	0.1
Jackson	Williams	30	-0.8	0.4
Jason	Hagerty	29	-0.9	-3
Jake	DePew	24	-1.1	-0.1
Mike	Ohlman	25	-1.1	-1.7
Roberto	Pena	24	-1.2	3.3
Dan	Rohlfing	27	-1.6	-0.3
Gabriel	Lino	23	-2.3	-2.5
Adam	Moore	32	-2.6	-4
Brett	Hayes	32	-3.9	-3.8
Nevin	Ashley	32	-4.5	-5.2
Dan	Butler	30	-4.6	-4.7
Miguel	Olivo	38	-5.1	-4.2
Ryan	Lavarnway	29	-5.7	-6.9
Bryan	Anderson	29	-6	-7.3
Carson	Blair	27	-7.6	-8.1
Josmil	Pinto	27	-9.2	-9.8
Steve	Lerud	32	-9.8	-10.7
Guillermo	Quiroz	34	-10.2	-13.1
Rene	Garcia	26	-11.8	-10.5
Chris	Berset	28	-22.3	-24.4

Four Orioles Prospects with the 2016 Tides

Joe Reisel's Archives

During the 2016 season, ten of Baseball America's preseason top 30 Orioles' prospects played at least one game in Norfolk. I was able to see 52 Norfolk games last season, and so my observations and opinions of these prospects might be of interest. This article covers half the prospects; the other half will be covered in a subsequent article.

Chance Sisco, catcher (#4)

Chance Sisco wasn't promoted to Norfolk until after they had played all their home games, so I didn't see him play.

Trey Mancini, first base (#8)

How good is he? Will he have a major-league career? How does he compare to Christian Walker?

Accurately or not, I see at least superficial similarities between Mancini and Christian Walker. Both are right-handed hitting first basemen, drafted in a middle round out of college. Mancini is almost exactly one year younger than Walker. Walker shot to AA in his first full season, but Mancini did not get there until his second full season. Mancini has slightly out-performed Walker at AAA - a .770 OPS vs a .754 OPS.

It's important to remember that Norfolk's Harbor Park is a pitcher's park. It's especially hard on a player like Mancini, a right-handed hitter who's more of a line-drive hitter with a little power, rather than a true slugger. Mancini was also much better at Bowie than he was at Norfolk. Given that, I think his .770 OPS is a reasonable estimate of what he'll do in Baltimore, moving to a better hitting environment. His OBP will probably drop some but his SP will probably increase by about as much. Looking for players who hit about as well as I think Mancini would, the best comp I found was David Freese.

Freese is a better player than we might remember, given that he was a last-minute free agent signing last season. And if Mancini were a third baseman, he'd be a solid regular. But Mancini has only played first base, and he hasn't yet hit well enough to be show that he'd be a championship-quality  first baseman. He can still improve, although probably not dramatically.

I was struck by a couple of things about Mancini, but I'm not sure if my perception is accurate. I thought he was too aggressive in run-producing situations to the extent that I really wasn't expecting him to drive in the runs in key situations. He also struck out more than I expected. I'll be taking a more detailed look at his performance later in the off-season.

Is he good trade bait?

He's a right-handed hitting first baseman who hasn't yet shown himself to be a great hitter. He won't bring much back.

Mike Wright, pitcher (#10)

Can he be a major-league pitcher?

He's been terrible as a starter in the major leagues, and I suspect his chances of being a starter with the Orioles are gone. On the other hand, he's been effective the past two seasons at Norfolk, although last season his strikeout rate deteriorated while his walk rate improved.

Two things about Wright. First, I wonder if he has concentration problems. He generally hasn't pitched well when he's been given early run support. It could be that he lets up too much when he's given a lead. Second, he generally is more effective when he strikes out fewer batters. I suspect that the harder he throws, the more hittable his pitches become because they move less.

This pattern - general ineffectiveness in the major leagues and general effectiveness in the minor leagues - is that of Jake Arrieta. Arrieta had more periods of sustained major-league success than Wright has had, and I am in no way declaring that if Wright got to another team, he'd be another Jake Arrieta. I do think his chances for success will be higher if he gets in another organization.

Dariel Alvarez, right fielder (#13)

Is he a major-league player?

If you took his best offensive numbers out of his two AAA seasons - a .287 batting average, 38 doubles, 16 home runs - that's good enough to play regularly. Unfortunately, (1) he didn't put those numbers in the same season and (2) he doesn't walk, so his on-base percentage is low. And his defense, which was quite good in 2015, deteriorated in 2016, perhaps because he was discouraged. With all that, he probably won't win a major-league job but might get one if all other options fail.

He's a lot like Adonis Garcia of Atlanta - a Cuban expatriate who spent a few years in AAA before falling into a job as the Braves' 2016 third baseman. He didn't play well, but will probably keep his job because the Braves don't have anybody better ready. That's the best case for Alvarez - he gets a job filling a gaping hole on a bad team.

Could he be a bench player?

It's hard to see it. He doesn't hit well enough to be an offensive asset; he probably can't play center field except on an emergency basis. A bench outfielder, especially in the American League, either has to really hit or play center field passably. He'd probably be a little better than Nolan Reimold, if that's what you're hoping for.

Christian Walker, left fielder/first baseman (#14)

How's the conversion to the outfield going?

He's not yet ready to play the outfield in the major leagues.

I'm willing to give Walker a mulligan for much of 2016. His father died suddenly in mid-season; he missed several days to attend services and he obviously was distracted when he came back. He seemed to be improving until his father's death; after he came back, he regressed.

It's obvious that he's never going to be a good outfielder. He's slow, has trouble tracking the ball, and doesn't have a good arm. He does catch what he can get to - he just can't get to enough.

He's been remarkably consistent offensively in his 2+ years at Norfolk. He's a .260/.325/.430 hitter. I thought last year that Billy Butler was a reasonable comp for Walker, and I still think that. Walker probably wouldn't be quite as good a hitter as Butler, but he'd be a better defensive first baseman.

To Dan Duquette with Love: Camden Depot's 2017 Roster Blueprint

Congratulations to the 2016 Orioles on their Wild Card placement.  I somehow lost track of them some time after that announcement.  I am sure it all worked out great.  I heard something about a homegrown Orioles and couple Orioles by trade managed to win themselves the World Series. Please do not bore me with the specifics because it is time to move on to 2017.

Moving on is a good theme to grad hold of, but not to completely embrace.  This post was originally rather extensive and broke down the roster in many ways.  I was far along in statistical modeling that suggested that the baseline talent the current currently has is around 82 wins and pretty much any way you jumble a budget of 160 MM without trades gets you up to 83 to 85 wins.  In other words, this is a mediocre team as is and can rise to fringe playoff contender.

Below is a link collection of all of our blueprints:
Blueprints

What we have in mind for Qualifying Offers ran the gamut of no offers to offering both Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo.  Our writers generally thought a QO on Trumbo only was the right move.  I polled our audience and they were split on offering it to Trumbo or offering it to both Trumbo and Wieters.  Before the Orioles announced, I noted that the final view of our site by me would be a QO to Trumbo.  Why?  I think he is worth the QO to another club as a first baseman, but is not worth a QO to the Orioles as a corner outfielder or designated hitter.  In other words, the bet is that he is wanted because it is a rather poor deal for what opportunities the Orioles have for him.

Saying no to Wieters is about how his profile is rather limited.  His defensive aptitude has been reduced as his athleticism decreases with age and injury.  His framing ability is pretty average and the rotation needs a plus glove there.  Finally, the offense just does not look like a package that can deliver a plus bat behind the plate.  The ability is their, but it just repeatedly fails in game.  Last year, I said it was smart to offer him the QO, but with another year in the books I find whatever hope of him getting it together at the plate is simply dreaming on old scouting reports.  The club is not set up all that well behind the plate with Caleb Joseph and some mish mash, but it is preferable to me than to go in deep again with a player who has shown that he probably is not who he was five years ago.

Non tender suggestions kicked around the same players, but the only discussion of merit were on Ryan Flaherty and Vance Worley.  Flaherty has a dependable glove at multiple positions, but has progressively become a strong arm version of Brandon Fahey.  In the last year of arbitration and without options, his versatility on the bench is not as inspiring as it once was.  Vance Worley was a depth addition last year from the Pirates.  He pitched well in the pen, but showed on several occasions that no he is not a starter.  This club needs long arms to start in a pinch and more left handed options.  Worley simply is a bit redundant and not very versatile.  Ideally, the club wants someone with options in that slot.  Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson should be given more looks or someone else coming in from a southpaw persuasion.  I would non tender both of them.

This leaves the club with about 16 MM for contracts.  After considering the blueprints and the fan polls, I actually come in right with the readership.  The club should offer Jason Castro a 2/20 contract.  He is a platoon player who fits in with Caleb Joseph's right handed bat.  Castro is one of the best pitch framers in the game and would provide some relief for the starting rotation that often needs the call on the edge.  Second, the club should bring someone back in the Michael Bourn mode.  He should be available for a few million on a one year deal.  He has versatility and potential to fill in at all positions with more aptitude than Joey Rickard, who should be in a firm platoon with Hyun Soo Kim.

With the few million left, I was in a position to either go with the upside veteran Steve Pearce or with a hopeful look to the future in Jae Gyun Hwang.  Pearce, with his arm injury, is a big question mark in the field and, with a delayed start to his offseason, also at the plate.  Upside is that he can really mash left handers when he is on as he was in 2014 and for the Rays last season.  Hwang is an unknown at the plate and probably not all that great.  He has the defense for third base and could potentially backup a corner outfield position.  I think this is really a coin flip, but I would lean to Hwang for defensive options with Pearce as a backup.

In the end, this club is around an 85 win team.  Really, with any of the blueprints, you find a very similar end point.  The reality is that you have several different approaches to get to a similar place.  You can have your pick.

In a greater sense, it seems we are at the end of an era.  The club has been well positioned on the Major League level.  Dan Duquette has managed to get the most out of this club with a strong core made of a few upcoming players, veterans at the backend or downside of their peaks, and underrated pitchers.  There is no cavalry.  There is no plan B.  The minors are barren and the infrastructure in place is not designed to quickly develop talent at that level.  The turnip is pressed and there simply is not much left in the system.

This leaves us really in a bit of a quandary.  Does it make sense and keep going down the path to get everything in as best shape as possible to pull in a championship?  Or, does it makes sense to ignore the championship and try to develop the most talent possible?  That question of Pearce vs. Hwang points to that.  Do you go with the guy who has a better chance to be helpful in 2017 or do you go with the guy who has a better chance being useful in 2018 or 2019?

For years, Orioles fans have been told of a gloom and doom window.  Dan Duquette chose to ignore the window and max out the club.  He was right in hindsight.  However, his success does not mean that windows are a fantasy.  They exist and they feel ever present.  The better question is can we truly see those windows or can windows be perpetually open with fringe talent acquisition like Kim, Trumbo, Pearce, and Cruz.  Does it matter whether a minor league system is bereft of talent.  Is the Orioles front office truly smarter than everyone else and is the coaching staff miles beyond the competition.

I, for one, have no belief in Orioles Exceptionalism.  I find the Oriole Way to be no different than other era related terms like Dodger Baseball.  Those grand ideas were really the ideas of Connie Mack, Branch Rickey, and Paul Richards.  Their ideas germinated from elsewhere.  The current club has no Baltimore lineage through those souls.  It is just baseball.

Anyway, this article was to be posted over a week ago.  I got sick.  I was stuck on a bed.  Time passed and baseball decisions have happened.  As a liberal, this past week was not a statistical shock, but an emotional one.  I find my baseball thoughts bleeding into my political philosophies.  I have shoehorned similarities between the Orioles and the sweeping losses in the election for the Democrats.  That is, the democrats had given up the denominational flexibility needed for whole government rule in order to put all effort into grabbing the presidency.  When that failed, barely, there was no safety net.  The party has put little effort in broadening the base beyond abstract progressiveness.  They simply were riding out the leadership of past days.

I see the current Orioles in a similar position.  They have had success, but they are not truly trying to cultivate the next wave of players.  They are riding out the current wave and hoping it lasts a little longer than it might seem.  At some point, the wave ends and a change needs to happen.  As with life, the difficult action is being able to know when that change needs to be implemented before you sink under the waves.  Maybe the Orioles have time to kick the can to the mid-season point to see where they stand.  Maybe they will be bold enough if their fortune is not smiling to make that next step.  I think the current wave should still be ridden, but ideas like dealing Zach Britton should be pondered and well-considered.

This club needs new life, but it is not dead yet.

The Orioles Need An Outfielder, But It Probably Won't Be The One You Want

Here's something that won't come as a surprise to any Orioles fan: the team needs to add an outfielder. And as the Orioles are wont to do, they're expressing interest in a wide group of players.

MLB's General Manager meetings recently took place in Arizona, and that means plenty of hot stove rumors were dished out. Free agent wise, the O's are apparently fond of Ian Desmond and most recently Josh Reddick. How about a trade? The names of Ender Inciarte and Brett Gardner were floated. Less specifically, the Orioles covet a left-handed-hitting outfielder. 

There are lots of other outfielders out there, too: Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Carlos Gomez, Michael Saunders, Jon Jay, Brandon Moss, and more. In the near future, the O's could express some level of interest in any of those players. And most of them would present a significant upgrade in either left or right field. Some of them are better with their bat; some are better with their glove. But none of them are as bad with the glove as Mark Trumbo (and maybe even Hyun Soo Kim).

You could argue that the Orioles don't have a single strong defensive corner outfielder on their roster. Advanced numbers certainly weren't kind to Kim and Joey Rickard last year. There's probably still some hope out there that Rickard could progress to "decent" if or when he receives more playing time. He has the early reputation of being thought of as better than he really is, thanks in part to 1) some positive spin coaches and overly excited scouts fed beat reporters, and 2) that he's fast and has made a couple of flashy catches.

If you want to go deeper -- that the Orioles don't have a single really good defensive outfielder, period -- then that's fine. There will always be a group of fans calling for Adam Jones to move to a corner outfield spot. At some point he should, and he will. But that's far from the Orioles' biggest need right now. Adding someone with a more competent glove than Trumbo (no difficult feat) is clearly on Dan Duquette's to-do list.

Lots of outfielders are on the Orioles' radar. More names will be floated, and the O's will leave no stone unturned. You should know the drill by now. Just don't be surprised if the outfield addition ends up being Michael Bourn. Considering the likely lack of payroll flexibility and the other holes on the roster to fill, maybe it should be. But that's not nearly as exciting as a Cespedes or Fowler rumor. 

World Series Lessons - a Personal Essay

I'm 54 years old. I grew up on the north(west) side of Chicago, about 8 1/2 miles from Wrigley Field, and have been a Cubs fan as long as I can remember. I have memories of the 1969 season, when I was 7, and my father took me to my first game at Wrigley the following year. Since then, I've seen 52 other games in Wrigley Field (I moved away from Chicago for school and work in 1979) and have seen the Cubs play road games in 9 other stadiums.

So, the Cubs winning the 2016 World Series was a big deal to me. When I found out that the Cubs had won, by checking my phone at 2:00 AM after waking up after I had gone to bed after the top of the ninth in Game 7, my mind began racing. After I recovered from my initial shock, I started thinking about baseball in general. Many of my thoughts aren't Cubs-fan-specific, and I thought I'd share these with you. To paraphrase Rex Stout, a mystery writer whose most-famous creation was Nero Wolfe, this article may irritate or bore you, but I hope that it either gives you pleasure or gives you something to think about.

Baseball, and sports in general, do matter. Many curmudgeons - or maybe just people who don't appreciate spectator sports - complain that athletes are paid too much, too much tax money is spent on stadiums, traffic control for sporting events, etc. etc. But, on an individual basis, spectator sports can serve as a necessary break, a diversion from our everyday stresses such as paying bills, meeting job deadlines, dealing with recalcitrant children, etc. We need such diversions to refresh our spirits, or perhaps even to give us something to look forward to during our workdays.

But the 2016 Cubs went beyond that. For this past month, all Cubs fans were one united community,  sharing joys and woes with each other. Two Sundays ago, the day after the Cubs won the National League pennant, I wore a Cubs t-shirt to a church luncheon; parishioners I did not know started conversations with me about the Cubs. The Cubs provided my brother and I with hours of emails and conversations. Long-lost friends reached out and expressed their good wishes. Thanks to all of you.

So, Orioles fans, enjoy the games. Go to Camden Yards with some friends. Join in the cheering. Talk about the Orioles to fans you know who live far away. It's all good.

Baseball, and sports in general, should be kept in perspective. Twice I went to bed for the night with the Cubs game tied. Those nights were among the worst night's sleeps I've had when I haven't been physically ill - I dreamt four separate times that I checked my phone to see the score. And the results were different each time. When I finally woke up for real, the first thing I did, before saying "Good Morning" to my wife, was to check my phone for the score. After a while, I realized that the Cubs had become too important to me, that it was taking over my life. I am working to put baseball and the Cubs back in their proper places. I'm trying to spend more time with my wife. I'm trying to limit my checking of baseball web sites to two or three times a day.

So, readers, let it go. Do something else with your free time on occasion. Don't let your fandom run your life. It shouldn't be the most important thing in your life.

We don't know as much about baseball as we'd like to think. By and large, Camden Depot is an analytical site. We gather data, draw conclusions, and think we understand how baseball games should be won or lost. It may seem sometimes that we're disappointed if our negative predictions about the Orioles don't come true, that we'd rather be right than have the Orioles win.

As I was watching the postseason, it struck me that baseball is far, far more complicated than we make it out to be. Take one example - the oft-repeated statement that batter's strikeouts don't matter, that there is at best a negligible cost to a strikeout. But in the top of the first inning of game 6 of the World Series, Addison Russell hit a fly ball to right-center field that should have been a routine third out. But, as we know, neither Tyler Naquin nor Lonnie Chisenhall caught the ball and two runs scored. If Russell had struck out, those runs wouldn't have scored.

I've seen the studies that show that a strikeout is negligibly worse than other outs. But those studies don't account for balls put in play that might be outs but aren't. They don't account for the presumed loss of extra-base hits if pitches are hit less than perfectly square. They don't account for walks. So while the literal statement "Strikeouts have virtually the same impact as ground outs or fly outs" is probably true, the generalization "Batter's strikeouts don't matter" doesn't directly follow.

So, writers - not just Camden Depot writers, but all writers on baseball, be humble. Acknowledge that we don't know as much as we want to, and that much of what we want to know is unknowable. Don't overgeneralize.

Baseball is meant to be enjoyable. And it's more enjoyable when the team you root for is doing well. I hope that all of you have really enjoyed and appreciate the last five years, in which the Orioles have done well. And I hope that the Orioles continue to do well, even when I think they're not doing things the right way.

Hey, Look: The Orioles Are Being Weird Again

Did you want the Orioles to keep the coaching staff intact? Well, too bad.

You can't really fault them for losing pitching coach Dave Wallace, who "retire[d] from active major league coaching" and recently joined the Atlanta Braves as a pitching instructor and adviser. That role comes with a much more flexible schedule, which Wallace was seeking. Wallace occasionally had to be away from the team during the season, and it's a priority for him to be able to spend more time at home.

The case of bullpen coach Dom Chiti is, however, more peculiar. Buck Showalter wanted Chiti to stay. Chiti not only wanted to stay, but also was "at least a candidate for the pitching coach job."And yet, Chiti said he didn't hear anything from Dan Duquette or the Orioles, so he followed Wallace to Atlanta. Chiti will serve as the Braves' director of pitching.

Disagreements happen, and coaches move on. But for someone as popular as Chiti among players and other coaches -- and who has helped to actually get promising O's pitchers to perform well -- it seems weird, even for the Orioles, for him to be left hanging in the wind.

As Chiti told Dan Connolly, he even tried reaching out to Duquette to see what was going on:

Chiti, however, said he contacted Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette on multiple occasions to ask about the status of his employment, but never received a response.

"I called and left three messages for Dan Duquette and he never called me back. I left three messages for the man. 'This is Dominic, can I get a couple minutes of your time?'" Chiti said.

That was the most disappointing part of this process, said Chiti, who is not shy in voicing his opinions, which could have rubbed some higher-ups the wrong way.

"If you don’t think you want me (back), if you don’t like me, I'm OK with that. But just call me and tell me. 'Dominic, we're not going to have you back.' I'm a big boy. I've been in the game a long time. I know how it works."

When asked about Chiti's comments, Duquette said he was unaware of any phone messages.

"I'm not sure who he was trying to contact," Duquette said. "It wasn't me."

Who knows exactly what happened, but it does seem odd for the Orioles not to make Chiti a priority. Again, he was apparently a candidate for the vacated pitching coach spot. Maybe in Duquette's eyes, though, he wasn't. But this does seem par for the course for someone with Duquette's track record of aloofness.

Don't place all the blame on Duquette, though. Connolly reminded fans in a separate post that this is what the Orioles' front office does. Connolly added, "Getting coaches’ contracts situated never seems to be a priority, though it usually seems to get done. I’m not sure exactly whose fault it is and why the delay happens, but this isn’t new."

It does seem like an annual thing, when Orioles' coaches' contracts expire, which leads to worrying that they aren't going to be renewed. That uncertainty has to be awkward and discomforting, and no one should fault Chiti for taking the sure thing in Atlanta.

The important thing is that Showalter is still around. The Orioles now have three coaching spots to fill, but Showalter will always be the straw that stirs the drink. Still, this wouldn't be the Orioles if strange things weren't happening. Just throw this latest example on top of the pile.

Cup of jO's: Bon Voyage, Zach Britton

Trades are a favorite topic of many blogs.  You can easily dream of excess pieces and rationalize why someone else might really, really want them.  It is difficult to make a reasonable column considering what possibly a player could command in return from another team.  Yet, here we are after so many blueprints over the past week with a resounding, repeated comment: what about trades?

Yesterday, I haphazardly dreamed about Zach Britton being dealt for Yasiel Puig, Austin Barnes and Julio Arias.  To me, that looks comical.  Then again, all closers deals I have seen over the past year look incredibly comical.  For instance, Craig Kimbrel going from the Padres to the Red Sox for four promising prospects.  A few things to remember: (1) Kimbrel went from godly to just excellent in his lone season with the Padres, so he did not have a clean bill at the time, (2) the Red Sox dealt players who did not figure into any reasonable playoff attempt, (3) the Red Sox had both prospects and money to shoulder Kimbrel's contract, and (4) Zach Britton never did what Kimbrel has done.

I think it can be fair to say that the different variations of WAR do not properly value a closer the way MLB clubs value a closer.  Therefore, I will use the value of the prospects that were sent to San Diego for Kimbrel as an indication of what Britton's value might be.

Manuel Margot, OF
Prospect Grade at Time of Trade: A-
Value at Time of Trade: 50 MM
Orioles Comp Value: Nothing Currently in System

Year	Age	Lev	PA	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
2014	19	A-A+	469	12	42	.293	.356	.462
2015	20	AA-A+	480	6	39	.276	.324	.419
2016	21	AAA	566	6	30	.304	.351	.426
2016	21	MLB	37	0	2	.243	.243	.405

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2016.

Javier Guerra, SS
Prospect Grade at Time of Trade: B (backend 100 prospect)
Value at Time of Trade: 20 MM
Orioles Comp Value: Chance Sisco

Year	Age	Lev	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
2013	17	FRk	253	0	.248	.356	.290
2014	18	Rk	207	2	.269	.286	.408
2015	19	A	477	15	.279	.329	.449
2016	20	A+	431	9	.202	.264	.325
All Levels (4 Seasons)			1368	26	.248	.307	.376

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2016.

Logan Allen, LHSP
Prospect Grade at Time of Trade: B-
Value at Time of Trade: 7 MM
Orioles Comp Value: Cody Sedlock

Year	Age	AgeDif	Lev	ERA	GS	IP	HR9	BB9	SO9
2015	18	-2.6	Rk-A-	1.11	8	24.1	0.0	0.4	9.6
2016	19	-2.7	A-Rk-A-	3.47	15	62.1	0.3	3.5	8.5
All Levels (2 Seasons)				2.80	23	86.2	0.2	2.6	8.8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2016.

Carlos Asuaje, INF
Prospect Grade at Time of Trade: C
Value at Time of Trade: 3 MM
Orioles Comp Value: Adrian Marin

Year	Age	Lev	PA	HR	BA	OBP	SLG
2013	21	A-	204	1	.269	.366	.368
2014	22	A-A+	559	15	.310	.393	.533
2015	23	AA	570	8	.251	.334	.374
2016	24	AAA	597	9	.321	.378	.473
2016	24	MLB	25	0	.208	.240	.292

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/2/2016.

For these players, the Red Sox acquired three years of Craig Kimbrel.  That is about 80 MM in surplus value in order to secure a shutdown closer.  Any team acquiring Britton would be getting two years at similar salary, so the approximate surplus value may be around 50 MM.  How does that look with the from the hip Dodgers' suggestion I had.

Well, Julio Urias is worth about 70 MM, so that kills the deal there.  Austin Barnes is worth about 15 MM.  Puig?  If you think he is a 2 WAR player then his two remaining contract years make him a 14 MM surplus value.  If you think he is a 3 WAR player, then his surplus value is 30 MM.  That brings us to my second idea, which is that the package could be Puig, Barnes, and Chase de Jong.  That would be more in the ballpark if Britton is rated similarly to Kimbrel.

Why would the Orioles do this?  First of all, it would give the club a true right fielder who has the capacity to be one of the better players in the league, but has been lost for much of the past two years.  Barnes presents as a more ready catching option for the Orioles.  He could be paired with Joseph.  Both are known as solid pitch framers.  It enables the Orioles to pace out Sisco a bit longer and decide whether he or Barnes should shift to 3B or maybe LF.  Finally, de Jong gives the club another successful potential starting pitcher option who would start the year out at AAA.

A pure prospect trade may look worse.  A 50 MM value would probably net you Willie Calhoun and Jose De Leon from the Dodgers.  They would arguably place first and second on the Orioles top ten rankings.  De Leon is a backend top 50 arm while Calhoun is a backend top 100 second baseman.  However, it would be hard seeing how this would improve the club in 2017.  That really is the rub, how do you get value to improve the club for 2017 while trading with a club who also is trying to maximize their 2017 run?

Some have suggested Jorge Soler.  I suggested him last year.  This year, he continued to show he has a fringe bat and his defense is poor.  He has a 4/17.5 MM deal remaining, which is actually quite affordable.  That said, he looks like an 8 MM loss over those four year.  His past two season in Chicago suggest he is a replacement level or bench player.  What could the Cubs attach onto him?  I would ask for Kyle Schwarber.  Failing that, then Ian Happ or Eloy Jimenez.  Failing that, then Dylan Cease, Jeimer Candelario, and Bryan Hudson.

Schwarber was in play last offseason, but I doubt he is this year.  Cubs might be willing to send out Happ with Zobrist around, but they would likely want to hold onto Jimenez to provide more long term outfield depth.  The others are not make or break players for Chicago.  Bryant blocks a sometimes shaky Candelario.  Cease would be a middle inning reliever.  Hudson is a glint in the eye and he had some minor league struggles.  With the Cubs though, the deal is basically whatever Soler is and then players for the future.  I doubt this is what the club would want.