Ivan DeJesus Jr. -- International League All-Star

In the late 1980's, Bill James identified what he named the "Ken Phelps All-Stars", players who "are ... available ... whose real limitations are exaggerated by baseball insiders, players who get stuck with a label - the label of their limits, the label of the things they can't do - while those that they can do are overlooked." [The Bill James Baseball Abstract 1987, p.233] Since then, analysts and serious fans have grabbed onto this concept. The more-sophisticated and understanding of these analysts have advocated that teams need not overpay marginal players to fill holes. The less-sophisticated have used this to buttress their old-school beliefs that players are overpaid, that there's no need to pay for talent, that there's plenty of players capable of playing high-quality major-league baseball who can be acquired for next to nothing.

Which brings us to the Orioles.

It's probably no surprise that the Orioles infield is likely to be filled with question marks over the next season or two. What will become of J.J. Hardy? Should Manny Machado remain at third base, or move to shortstop? Not to mention that the Orioles' second baseman are currently among the worst in the league; an easy way for the Orioles to improve is to improve their second basemen. So, Orioles fans are looking at infield options.

And, for the most part, acquiring an infielder at high cost isn't an option. The Orioles believe that their payroll is maxed out; signing an expensive free agent or taking on an unwanted contract - no matter how good the player - isn't likely. And the Orioles don't have any assets to trade that (1) have value; (2) they are willing to trade; and (3) won't open up another hole somewhere else. Jon has proposed trading a starting pitcher for Nick Franklin; the objections are (1) trading a starting pitcher leaves them very vulnerable to starting pitcher injury and/or ineffectiveness and (2) we don't know that Franklin is any better than a replacement-level infielder anyway. So, desperate Orioles fans are looking to the available-player pool, hoping for a low-cost solution who might become a future Ken Phelps all-star.

Which brings us to Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Ivan De Jesus Jr. has spent the 2014 at the Orioles AAA affiliate in Norfolk after being signed as a minor-league free agent. He was drafted and signed by the Dodgers in 2005, and moved steadily through the minor-league system; he had an outstanding .324/.419/.423 season as a 21-year-old in AA. Then he suffered a serious broken leg and essentially missed all of 2009; he came back slowly in 2010 and although he put up superficially impressive offensive numbers in 2010 and 2011, he was playing at Albuquerque which is one of the top hitters' parks in AAA. By then, he had been passed by Dee Gordon in the Dodgers' plans and was sent to the Red Sox in the 2012 Adrian Gonzalez trade. In the 2012 offseason, he was one of the four disappointments sent to the Pirates for Joel Hanrahan and Brock Holt; he played 2013 at Indianapolis where he hit well but with the rather strange combination of 104 games, 345 plate appearances. The Pirates didn't add him to their 40-man roster and the Orioles signed him.

He's played well so far. He started the season as Norfolk's deep-reserve utility infielder behind Jemile Weeks, Alexi Casilla, Cord Phelps, and David Adams. However, after promotions, ineffectiveness, and injuries opened an opportunity, he's been the regular shortstop for the past two months. He's hitting well, batting .298/.376/.411 through July 3. He's been named as the Tides' representative to the AAA All-Star game (partly because the only other Tide playing well is Steve Clevenger, who has played 30 games.) So, dreaming Orioles fans are wondering if De Jesus might be at least a partial answer to the team's infield questions.

Based on his 2014 usage, I don't think that the Orioles are considering him to be a viable solution. De Jesus was drafted as a shortstop but there were questions about his ability to stick there. After his injury, the Dodgers began to play him more at second base. After his trades, the Pirates played him mostly at second in 2013. Yet, in 2014, the Orioles have moved him back to shortstop, where he's played 62 games as opposed to 2 at second and 1 at third. The Orioles aren't grooming De Jesus as a future utilityman a la Steve Lombardozzi or Jemile Weeks; and it's strange that after four seasons of playing mostly second they would move him back to short. He's playing AAA shortstop apparently out of organizational need, but major-league teams adjust their minor-league doings to the needs of the players they want to develop, not the other way around.

I've seen De Jesus play 20 games this season, and one thing that is immediately obvious is that he doesn't have the speed you would like a player with his (lack of) power to have. The following table, which shows the distribution of defenders who fielded the ground balls he's hit, illustrates that point:

Fielder	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Base Hit	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	1
Out	3	0	1	5	3	5	0	0	0

Focus on columns 1 through 6 for now, which are the ground balls fielded by infielders. He's hit eighteen ground balls to an infielder and only one has been an infield hit. That confirms the scouting reports which state that he's a below-average runner. The good news is that he doesn't hit a lot of soft ground balls, which are more likely to be beaten out.

On the other hand, he doesn't hit a lot of hard ground balls, which are more likely to find their way to the outfield. He's hit four ground-ball base hits to the outfield out of 22 total ground balls. When he hits a ground ball, it tends to be a routine ground ball to an infielder.

The next table show a similar pattern for his fly balls:

Fielder	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Base Hit	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	2
Out	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	5	4

(His out-of-park home runs are included in the above table; based on who would have caught it had it been caught.) The pattern is the same albeit not as strong; when De Jesus hits what I consider a fly ball (as distinct from a line drive), it's typically a routine out.

On the other hand, his line drives result in base hits.

Fielder	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Base Hit	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	2	5
Out	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4

(He hit one line drive off the pitcher that ricocheted into no-man's-land.)

Perhaps more than most players, De Jesus must hit line drives to be a successful batter. Most players are most successful when they hit line drives, so that's not unusual, but it is unusual for him to be so unsuccessful when he doesn't hit a line drive. To be successful in the major leagues, he's going to have to be able to hit line drives consistently, and he hasn't shown that he's good enough to do that. I think Ivan De Jesus Jr. has a ceiling of AAA lifer.

Brandon Waring - A Lost Minor League Free Agent

More than for most teams, the offseason playing-personnel moves of the Baltimore Orioles have been minor-league free agent arrivals and departures. Most of the focus at Camden Depot has been on the players signed by the Orioles, which is proper - most people reading this site are much more interested in the players joining the Orioles rather than in those leaving. And most of the players who might leave the Orioles as a minor-league free agent are either AAA veterans who joined the Orioles as a minor-league free agent for 2013 (Manny Delcarmen, Adam Russell, Jairo Asencio et al); lower-level fringe players and backups (Travis Adair, George Barber, Allen de san Miguel et al) or players we've discussed in the past (Luis Exposito, Zelous Wheeler).

The all-time home run king among professional baseballers named "Waring." (Elaina Ellis / Norfolk Tides)

But there's one somewhat-familiar and as-yet-undiscussed name among the minor-league free agents leaving the Orioles for potentially greener pastures. In four of his seasons with the Orioles, Brandon Waring made the list of Baseball America's top thirty Orioles' prospects, with a high rating of 18 before the 2010 season. And before both the 2010 and 2011 seasons, BA regarded Waring as the best power hitter in the Orioles' minor-league system. Waring has hit twenty or more home runs in every professional season he's played, including his first professional season in 2007, in which played only 69 games.

Waring, a corner infielder who split time between third and first, joined the Orioles' organization in the 2008 season when the Orioles traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for Waring, Justin Turner, and the late Ryan Freel. Despite Waring's power, he progressed very slowly through the Orioles system; spending all of 2010, all of 2011, and the first six weeks of 2012 at AA Bowie before earning a promotion to Norfolk. It's not surprising why he didn't get promoted more quickly; he was a bad third baseman; he hit for a low average and struck out a lot; and although he took some walks he struggled to maintain an acceptable on-base percentage.

Waring had a fairly good 2012 season split between AA and AAA, but he injured himself in spring training 2013 and found himself back in Bowie for 2013, where he again hit 20 homeruns despite a .213 batting average. He'd obviously fallen out of the Orioles' plans; he wasn't going to push Manny Machado or Chris Davis aside; so after he was granted free agency he signed with the Twins.

Waring turned 28 on January 2, and he's not going to be a star or even a good regular player. Still, Waring's skill set isn't that much different from Mark Reynolds' - low-average power hitter who draws a few walks and plays bad defense - and because so many teams have problems finding even slightly productive designated hitters, can Waring be a useful player to somebody?

I saw and recorded 81 of Waring's AAA plate appearances in 2012. I've gathered some more-or-less unrelated facts about his performance and these may describe him more fully:

First, here's a look at his batted-ball breakdown:

Line Drive	12
Fly Ball	23
Ground Ball	14

This data includes both hits and outs; the ground / fly ratio is available only for outs, so any conclusion must be tentative. It does seem that Waring hits the ball in the air more than average, which is not surprising but also advantageous; players who hit the ball in the air hit into fewer double plays than those who hit the ball on the ground. Waring is not blessed with great speed; it's an advantage for him to not hit ground balls that could become double plays.

More interesting is the number of pitches he saw at different counts. The first table shows the number of pitchers he saw ahead in the count, even in the count, or behind in the count (excluding first pitches); the second shows the number of pitchers he saw at each count:

Ahead	82
Even	62
Behind	80

0-0	81
1-0	34
0-1	38
2-0	10
1-1	38
0-2	16
3-0	3
2-1	17
1-2	26
3-1	4
2-2	24
3-2	14

Waring had difficulty getting far ahead in the count. He had only ten 2-0 counts, 3 3-0 counts, and 4 3-1 counts. Considering that there are more chances to hit ahead in the count than behind in the count, it's safe to say that Waring doesn't work the count to his advantage. That could be because he's swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, fouling off pitches, or because he's taking pitches in the strike zone. The breakdown of his strikes doesn't tell us much:

Swinging	43
Fouled	41
Called	49

Possibly Waring should have swung at a few more strikes earlier in his at-bats, but that's a risky approach if he expands his strike zone too much and it's not based on substantial evidence.

Brandon Waring had the power to possibly make him a useful bench part on a major-league team. Certainly he deserved more of a shot than the Orioles gave him. I'm not going to state that the Orioles should have given him that shot and I'm certainly not going to say that he would have done anything with his shot. It does seem that Waring could have changed his game to work ahead of the pitchers more frequently and take more advantage of his power. It's unlikely, but Brandon Waring might help the Twins in 2013; but with Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Steve Pearce, Nolan Reimold, Delmon Young, and Francisco Peguero, the Orioles probably won't miss him.

Josh Stinson -- Good Enough to Want, Not Good Enough to Keep

In his book The Breaks of the Game, David Halberstam described NBA journeyman Kevin Kunnert as "just [good] enough for other teams to covet, and never quite good enough for his own team to keep." Baseball has similar players who are repeatedly waived and claimed on waivers within a short time period. Their team will try to sneak them through waivers to outright them to the minor leagues; another team will claim them; and then their new team will try the same ploy, often with the same result. At the end of spring training the Orioles claimed one such player, pitcher Josh Stinson. They added him so near the end that he didn't pitch in a single major- or minor-league spring-training game for the Orioles.

Stinson was originally drafted and signed by the Mets, and he spent his first six professional seasons in their organization. He moved between starting and relieving, and in 2011- his sixth season - made 13 starts at AAA Buffalo, going 3-7 with a 7.44 ERA. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Mets didn't keep him on their 40-man roster and he became a minor-league free agent, signing with the Brewers. He pitched very well at AA Huntsville and earned a promotion to Milwaukee, where he gave up one run in 9 1/3 innings. However, at the end of spring training 2013, the Brewers needed 40-man roster spot and waived Stinson. The Athletics claimed him, but found themselves in the same situation five days later and waived him again. This time, the Orioles claimed him and optioned him to Norfolk. He's made two starts so far with the Tides, and I've happened to have seen them both. Based on those starts, I don't see that Stinson is good enough for the Orioles to worry about losing.

In Stinson's first start against Charlotte, he pitched five innings, giving up three runs (one earned) on seven hits and one walk, with seven strikeouts. (One of the unearned runs was a solo home run; so the earned run count probably overstates his effectiveness a little.) He threw 78 pitches in those five innings, 48 strikes; he faced twenty batters. In this game, Stinson was helped by questionable Charlotte baserunning. In the third inning, after the leadoff batter scored after reaching on an error, a baserunner was thrown out trying to steal third base. The third out of the fourth inning was recorded when the batter was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double. In the fifth inning, the leadoff batter reached on a bunt single and was thrown out trying to steal second; the next batter singled and was picked off first base by catcher Chris Robinson (the third runner Robinson threw out, if you're counting.)

In his second start, Stinson pitched 6 2/3 innings, giving up one unearned run on three hits and three walks, with three strikeouts. He threw 88 pitches, 58 for strikes; he faced twenty-five batters. In this game, Stinson had trouble putting away batters. Of the 25 batters Stinson faced, he got two strikes on ten. To those ten batters, he threw 23 pitches after he had gotten two strikes. To the fifteen batters who were dispensed without getting to two strikes, Stinson threw 28 pitches. To emphasize -- Stinson needed 23 pitches to dispense with ten batters after he had gotten two strikes on them; he needed 28 total pitches to dispense with fifteen batters before he had gotten two strikes.

In his career, Stinson has allowed more than one hit per inning pitched and has averaged only six strikeouts per nine innings. He was successful in his two starts with Norfolk but his limitations were nevertheless revealed. When he's consistently around the strike zone, he'll get strikeouts but give up base hits. When he tries to be less hittable with his pitches he gives up fewer base hits, but strikes out fewer and walks more.

It's easy to see why other teams want him. He's never been seriously injured in his professional career. He will be very useful as an insurance policy in AAA, ready to complete the AAA team's rotation, to be promoted in an emergency, or to serve as a middle relief pitcher. It's also easy to see why his current team doesn't feel the need to keep him. He doesn't have great stuff and consequently very little upside.

He reminds me of Rick VandenHurk; a fifth starter, swingman, middle reliever type. There are dozens of guys like him pitching in AAA or independent leagues, or free agents. If the team needs a forty-man roster spot, he's a guy that the parent team is willing to take the risk of losing. There's another guy just like him readily available. If the Orioles are able to avoid losing Stinson, either on waivers or as an in-season minor-league free agent*, he'll likely be a workhorse in the Norfolk rotation.

*Technical detail -- Stinson spent some time with the Mets in 2011, and was removed from their 40-man roster before the Brewers signed him. If he clears waivers and the Orioles try to outright him to the minor leagues a second time, he has the option to declare himself a free agent.