Reviewing the 2007 Steve Trachsel Trade

A celebrated past time of mine and other fans is to just to speak ill of bad moves by the front office. Rarely does anyone bother to fact check as tearing down the leader of a bad team is a good way to relieve tension and relish in dark humor. This piece is the first of many meant to concurrently evaluate all of Macphail's trades with Baltimore. Today we will look at the Trachsel trade of 2007 (the distinction is there for I hope there is a Trachsel trade of 2008):




August 31, 2007
Steve Trachsel, SP
for
Scott Moore, Inf
Rocky Cherry, RP
Jake Renshaw, SP

I imagine Jim Hendry hit the bottle and blacked out on August 31, 2007. Or maybe MacPhail knows how to forge his signature and still had some Cubs stationary. Typically, guys who have a 1.6 WHIP and a 45-69 k:bb ratio just do not get much attention. Still, the Cubs wanted him enough to ship a blocked and somewhat tarnished 3B prospect (Moore) and a dime a dozen fringe relief pitcher (Cherry). There was also a clause that stated if the Cubs made the playoffs, we would also recieve Jake Renshaw.

Trachsel bombed for the Cubs and was basically discarded unceremoniously after the September playoff race. He gave them an 8.31 line in 17.1 IP. We then signed him back. So, for a one month junk rental, we received three fringe prospects. Let's take a look:

Scott Moore
Moore was the 8th overall pick in the 2002 draft. He was a top flight SS from Long Beach with plus power. He debuted that year in the GCL and disappointed in the field, but showed promise offensively. He spent two more lackluster seasons in the Tiger system at A and HiA. During the 2004 offseason, he was traded to the Cubs with future Oriole Roberto Novoa and Bo Flowers for Kyle Farnsworth. That deal seems to have benefited the Tigers more. Anyway, Moore repeated HiA and put up 20 homeruns along with a higher contact rate. He repeated his numbers at AA at age 22 and saw some time with the Cubs. Last year, he improved his walk rate slightly at AAA and showed glimpses of power at Baltimore. This spring, he hit solidly and was left on the opening day roster. For a young guy, he needs reps and could not find enough even though he was used as a utility man. Currently, he is playing SS at Norfolk. It will take a few weeks to see if it is going to be long project or if he could come up immediately and take the job away from Luis Hernandez. I think keeping him at Norfolk and letting him learn SS and 2B would be beneficial. More so, than shuttling him around at the MLB level. When he can supplant Hernandez or replace Mora or Roberts, he should be welcomed back. Offensively, he doesn't have much left to learn at Norfolk.

Rocky Cherry
Rocky has had it tough. Before the 2002 draft, he suffered a partially torn rotator cuff, which caused him to take a below market deal. Drafted in the 14th round, he would have gone higher with his 90s fastball. After struggling for several seasons in the Cubs farm system, he has to have Tommy John surgery in 2005 and passed time working part-time in the paint section of Home Depot. At AA (age 26), he came back and completely owned the competition with his fastball topping off at 97mph. The next year, he struggled at AAA and was somewhat league average. In 2007, he looked good for the Cubs and was awful for the Orioles. He has the chance to be a righty specialist, but it remains to be seen if there is a place on the roster after he rehabs. He might have a good year or two somewhere, but it probably won't be here.

Jake Renshaw
Renshaw appears to be on his family's radar and no one else. He seems to be starting on a similar career path as Rocky Cherry. I think his potential, at best, would carry him as a righty out of the pen. Sickels ignored him among his C listings. He has logged in 2 years in the Cubs system as he was selected in the 10th round of the 2006 draft. He was wanted 2 years prior by the BoSox in the 26th round, so he wasn't a highly sought after guy. His minor league line at Rookie, A, and HiA, has shown he is decent at striking guys out, but gets hit way too much. I do not know what his hang up is. Maybe his material is flat or he needs another pitch. If he emerges to be something . . . it will be from out of nowhere. Right now, nowhere is Frederick, MD. So far, he is doing alright. He has appeared in two games, with one being a start, logging in 6 IP. He has only given up one hit, but it was a homerun. He has 5 k's and 3 bb's. Anyway, I have included a video showing two pitches. I know little about evaluating pitching mechanics, but I do not like how he opens himself up. It looks a little violent on the front.



Conclusion
It wasn't a bad trade, per se. No one the Cubs traded really will mean much to their success this year or in the future. Moore was blocked at third by a superior player. If he can play short or second and develop his bat . . . then this trade will look bad. Rocky Cherry will probably not last the 2009 season with the Orioles. He was of little loss to the Cubs. Renshaw? Maybe he gets a cup of coffee, but I doubt it. He may breakout and surprise everyone, but I doubt it. That being said, we did not get much, but the Cubs received nothing. Maybe we get lucky and someone breaks out. Or maybe not. I would call it a big win for MacPhail in principle, but it probably won't result in much of anything.

Scott Moore vs the Defensive Spectrum

Scott Moore officially began his attempt to swim against the current last night.

Moore fielded two ground balls cleanly but was unable to come up with Michael Young's hard grounder in the third inning.

Moore was pinch hit for at the top of the seventh in hope of pushing the game into the win column. All in all, not that bad of a first game at second base. He was fairly competent out there, but did not seem to field as well as Brian Roberts, who can be kindly said as being slightly above average as a defender. So, switching from third base to second base. What is Moore up against?

The venerable Bill James.

Back in the 80s, James devised the defensive spectrum. The defensive spectrum suggests that there is a hierarchy of skill associated to each position. The order is as follows from most skill to least skill:

Catcher
Shortstop
Second Base
Centerfield
Third Base
Rightfield
Leftfield
First Base

The thought is that it is quite difficult to move up. If a shift in defensive position occurs, then it will be downward. That is not to say that any shift downward will be successful. We can all remember Jay Gibbons and Javy Lopez. They shifted downward and could not be competent at 1B. Some skill sets that are advantageous for one position may not be useful to another and vice versa. For instance, I imagine it would be rare for a catcher to be able to successfully convert to being a centerfielder. It has been done (i.e., Biggio), but it is rare. I cannot think of a single instance where a centerfielder became a successful catcher (someone want to doublecheck that?).

There is something unspoken about the defensive spectrum. The indirect effects on offense. As defense becomes a premium, a lesser level of offense is tolerated. Luis Hernandez had a slight chance of being called to the majors as a light hitting defensive wiz at shortstop. If you shift him to first and have his glove anointed by St. Peter, yet keep his bat the same . . . he would be riding the pine in Quibor. To this extent, even if Javy and Jay could have played first base . . . they would have been relatively worthless as firstbasemen in terms of offensive production. In 2007, the defensive spectrum had OPS+ as follows:

Catcher (88 OPS+)
Shortstop (88 OPS+)
Second Base (99 OPS+)
Centerfield (98 OPS+)
Third Base (100 OPS+)
Rightfield (116 OPS+)
Leftfield (100 OPS+)
First Base (108 OPS+)

This line of thinking remains relatively true. I imagine if you combine several seasons together it would wash out that bottom end. Last year seems to have been an amazing success for right fielders. In 2006, that bottom three slots were 110, 105, and 111 collectively. I doubt that LF has become more difficult to defend and imagine that LF has now become a spot to just throw people who have no real position. Typically, these guys would be on the bench or at DH. It is becoming more and more common though to have a full time DH. It is also becoming more common to throw your mistake free agent purchases in LF (read: Jay Payton). Right field is so important defensively on extra base hits that you cannot simply hide people there and Magglio Ordonez and Vladimir Guerrero help push things up offensively. Another interesting thing is how second base has become more and more of an offensive position over recent years with the emergence of guys like Robinson Cano and Brian Roberts.

So what about Moore?

Traditionally, his bat would make him more valuable at second base than third base. However, more and more production is coming from that position. The question is it because traditional secondbasemen are developing more power OR defensive ability is now being downplayed at the position (did Soriano and the Yanks start this?). I would have to think it would be the latter. Fringe guys who should be in left field or third base are being put at second to get more production from that position. Moore's background as an amateur SS should help him somewhat, but playing middle infield several years ago at a lower competition level and learning second base in the majors is quite different. His body shape has also changed. He is still quite athletic and people tend to think he could be passable at second . . . he is a more natural thirdbaseman at this point in his career.

I figure as soon as Mora leaves, he will shift back. The only way he can stay at second base would be that his hitting develops to the point that his defense is not considered as much of a liability. In simple OPS+ terms, he needs to do about 115 . . . which is about where Brian Roberts is. At third base, he can be a viable major leaguer if he can hit consistently around 100-105. I would think if he dips below either of these, he is not helping the team. If he can hit these consistently, then he can probably be a fringe starter until age 30. In the former case (115 OPS+), he would need to be switched to a less demanding position. In the latter case (105 OPS+), he needs to find a comfortable place on the bench or in the stands. I like him. I wouldn't give up on him, but I would not expect him to ever be considered one of the best at his position. Someone like Todd Walker would be the best I would hope for.

And, I am heading out of Camden Depot for the weekend.

A Scott Moore Obsession?
Go here.