Orioles Assemble Interesting, Flexible Pitching Depth

Dan Duquette doesn't need any extra motivation to go out and search for intriguing or overlooked depth pieces for the roster. Finding and utilizing fringe players has been a staple in the Duquette and Buck Showalter era for the Orioles, and they've excelled at sorting through the options and finding players that fit. And that obviously includes the starting rotation.

The O's rotation is not overly frightening for opposing lineups, and that's even with assuming Chris Tillman's right shoulder heals in time for a mid- or late-April return. As fourth or fifth starter types, Ubaldo Jimenez and Wade Miley can pitch well in stretches, but they're still wild cards. Plus, the O's likely intention for Dylan Bundy to pitch out of the rotation for the entire season is both compelling and concerning. Of the five options right now, only one of the group, Kevin Gausman, brings comfort to fans.

That brings us to the collection of long relievers the Orioles now have behind them. Duquette has assembled a cast of characters who individually are not overly exciting, but together all have the ability to start and pitch in relief. And unsurprisingly, they all have options remaining.

Before the offseason began, the Orioles had an underwhelming group that included Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Joe Gunkel, Chris Lee, Parker Bridwell, and Jayson Aquino. In separate moves with the Mets in November and February, the O's purchased pitching depth in Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa. Again, both players have options, so the Mets more or less gave them away. Then, most recently, the Orioles acquired Vidal Nuno from the Dodgers in exchange for minor leaguer Ryan Moseley. That's not a steep price either, but at least it involved an actual exchange of players.

T.J. McFarland, who was designated for assignment to make room for Nuno, was already out of options. So it's not surprising that he was jettisoned, though he still could return and end up in Norfolk.

As you'd expect, all three acquisitions have their flaws. Nuno, the more established of the group, is likely to get more work since he's a lefty, but he has some flyball and home run concerns. Verrett is also not overpowering, and last year he struggled with control (6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9 in 91 2/3 innings). Ynoa, meanwhile, is a groundball-inducing type, but he is the worst of the three when it comes to missing bats and still needs to work on his breaking pitches (which need "more consistency," according to Duquette).

Considering the small cost to add them, though, of course they all have their weaknesses. But you can still see the logic here. Instead of opting for an aging starter type like Doug Fister or Jake Peavy, Duquette chose to spread whatever available money around and also maintain roster flexibility, which he greatly values. In addition, the Orioles already had one of those established starter types in Yovani Gallardo (not as old, though) and yet justifiably traded him away to help shore up another position of need (corner outfielder) by hauling in Seth Smith. Starting pitchers aren't cheap for a reason, but even after trading away Gallardo, the Orioles' rotation doesn't seem to be much worse off, if any.

Now, the O's are not positioned not have to rely on Wilson and Wright if/when rotation issues arise. The depth should not be considered great and could easily struggle, but Showalter has shown he can still make things work with a seemingly underwhelming staff.

It didn't seem wise to head into the season having to again depend on Wright and Wilson, who along with Worley finished in the Orioles' top 10 in innings pitched last year. Worley is gone, but Wright and Wilson are not, though Nuno, Ynoa, and Verrett seem to have leapfrogged them in the pecking order. If the Orioles to rely on any of them heavily, trouble could on the horizon, but it's not inconceivable that a few of them could play small, helpful roles.

Should the Orioles Flip Schoop and Matusz to the Mets for Daniel Murphy?

The Orioles have a crowded, inflexible bullpen and seemingly have an extra reliever or two who may be available. The Mets are looking for a left-handed reliever and have shown some interest in Brian Matusz. And already this offseason the O's have been willing to deal Matusz. They've also been stretching him out, possibly showcasing him for other teams, and Matusz clearly wants the opportunity to start again.

The Orioles also need an upgrade at second base, or at least need to receive better production in 2015 from their second baseman, Jonathan Schoop (or Everth Cabrera, Ryan Flaherty, and/or someone else). The most likely scenario is that Schoop gets the nod as the opening day starter, and then the O's go from there depending on how he performs. But with so many impending free agents, the O's are also in a win-now mode of sorts and could be looking at a very different roster in 2016 and beyond. That doesn't mean the Orioles should haphazardly sacrifice all or most of the future to compete in 2015, and by letting Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, and Andrew Miller walk, refusing to spend big on any free agents, and rebuffing all Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy trade inquiries, they obviously aren't doing that. But a repeat American League East crown is surely within reach, and every little bit helps.

So would it be worth parting with Schoop, an unknown quantity offensively, to get more of an assured upgrade this season?

Out of left field trade idea: Daniel Murphy for Brian Matusz and Jonathan Schoop?
— Jon Shepherd (@jsbearr) March 16, 2015

I don't think many fans would have a real issue parting with Matusz. He's certainly an effective LOOGY, but he'll make $3.2 million this season in his third year of arbitration, and as a Super Two player (meaning he has four arbitration-eligible years), will make a bit more next year as well. That's a lot to pay a situational reliever, and that money could be better allocated elsewhere, especially since the O's recently signed a left-handed specialist in Wesley Wright and also have T.J. McFarland and possibly Tim Berry as relief options. (Zach Britton, the closer, is left handed as well.)

So, really, this conceivable though unlikely trade hinges on Daniel Murphy (who the O's and Dan Duquette have checked in on in the past) vs. Schoop. Murphy, 29, is in his last year of arbitration (he'll make $8 million) and will be a free agent after this season. Schoop, meanwhile, is only 23 and is under team control through 2019. In one full season of work, Schoop impressed defensively but was terrible offensively (67 wRC+). He should be better next season, but young players don't magically get better just because they have more experience. And how much of a leap will he make? Murphy, though, grades out worse defensively but is a clear improvement offensively (108 wRC+).

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	HR	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2008	23	NYM	49	151	131	2	0	.313	.397	.473	.871	130
2009	24	NYM	155	556	508	12	4	.266	.313	.427	.741	96
2011	26	NYM	109	423	391	6	5	.320	.362	.448	.809	126
2012	27	NYM	156	612	571	6	10	.291	.332	.403	.735	103
2013	28	NYM	161	697	658	13	23	.286	.319	.415	.733	108
2014 ★	29	NYM	143	642	596	9	13	.289	.332	.403	.734	111
6 Yrs			773	3081	2855	48	55	.290	.333	.419	.752	109
162 Game Avg.			162	646	598	10	12	.290	.333	.419	.752	109

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/16/2015.

Realistically, Murphy will be better than Schoop in 2015. But then he'd likely depart. So the real question is: How good do you think Schoop can be? If you think he can progress enough offensively to league average or close to it, while also performing well defensively, then it makes sense to hold onto him. But if you think he'll keep swinging at everything in sight while not walking and maintaining an on-base percentage around .270, then it would be easier to deal him. And depending on what the O's do this upcoming offseason, Schoop's ongoing development may come during a time when there's a diminished chance to compete.

I don't think Murphy is enough of an upgrade to consider trading away Schoop. I also think Schoop still possesses a decent amount of upside with the bat and could quickly become a building block. Showalter clearly values defense, and Schoop has the advantage in that department. In all likelihood, the O's won't be dealing Schoop, and the Mets might prefer to hold onto Murphy anyway. Maybe the Orioles could simply trade Matusz for Logan Verrett, who was a recent Rule 5 pick from the Mets, for roster flexibility purposes. That wouldn't be nearly as much of a gamble.

Expanding on the Orioles' Rule 5 Acquisitions

In the major league phase of the December 11 Rule 5 draft, the Orioles acquired two players. They purchased pitcher Jason Garcia from the Astros after Houston had selected him from the Red Sox, and with their own selection they drafted pitched Logan Verrett from the Mets. You may decide that I'm a baseball freak in many senses of the term because I've actually seen both Verrett and Garcia pitch live in minor-league games. On June 7, 2013, after a rainy afternoon at the Allegheny Portage Railroad National Historic Site, I saw Logan Verrett pitch for the Binghamton Mets against the Altoona Curve at People's Natural Gas Field in Altoona, PA. And on August 7, 2014, on my way to Atlanta, I saw Jason Garcia pitch three innings of relief for the Greenville Drive against the Augusta Greenjackets at Fluor Field in Greenville, SC.

I admit I don't remember Verrett or Garcia. However, as I have done at almost every baseball game I've attended since I was eight years old, I kept score and kept the scoresheets. So, I'll look back at those games to learn about the new Orioles.

Logan Verrett

The Altoona Curve didn't score many runs against Logan Verrett, and he was credited with Binghamton's 3-2 win. But it really wasn't because of how Logan Verrett pitched that Altoona didn't score:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Game Score
6	9	2	2	2	3	51

Four Altoona runners were retired on the bases - one doubled off first base on a soft line drive; another picked off second by the catcher; a third thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double; and a fourth caught stealing. In an alternate universe with no baserunning errors and unchanged batter results, Altoona would have scored two more runs and won the game.

The Altoona batters consistently hit the ball in the air against Logan Verrett:

Ground Ball	6
Fly Ball	8
Line Drive	6
Walk	2
Strikeout	3

And Verrett wasn't missing bats. I can't state it as a fact, but I don't recall a starting pitcher having such a high percentage of pitches fouled off:

Ball	28
Called Strike	13
Swinging Strike	5
Foul Ball	27
In Play	20

Based on this game, I don't see what Logan Verrett brings to the Orioles. He looks like a generic minor-league starting pitcher, and even though he only cost $50,000 to acquire, I don't think he's worth a spot on the forty-man roster. Nor do I see what role he would perform on the Orioles better than other available pitchers. It's certainly possible that Verrett pitched better overall than in this one game, and it's also possible that he's improved over the past season. But it seems to me that Verrett is just starting pitching depth for Norfolk. For Verrett to fill that role, the Mets would have to not reclaim him when he's offered back; and it wouldn't be a surprise if the Mets didn't reclaim him.

Jason Garcia

If the Orioles' selection of Logan Verrett is puzzling, the Orioles' acquisition of Jason Garcia (via trade with Houston) is understandable although unlikely to pan out. The major reason the move is unlikely to pan out is that the 22-year-old Garcia has only reached Class A and has pitched only about eighty innings in the past two seasons. But it's easy to see him succeeding as a power arm in the bullpen.

While Garcia's pitching line isn't all that impressive, there are extenuating circumstances:

IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	Game Score
3	5	3	3	1	4	40

Again, this was as a relief pitcher. Garcia didn't allow a run in his first two innings; Greenville had a 5-0 lead going into the top of the ninth. In the ninth, the probably-tiring Garcia allowed three runs. Facing the potential tying run, he ended the game with a strikeout to get credit for a save. His apparent future is in the bullpen, so his tiring in his third inning isn't much of a problem.

But he's even more interesting. Of the thirteen batters he faced, one hit the ball in the air (a double off the left-field wall by the second-to-last batter he faced) and seven hit the ball on the ground. If Garcia can consistently get both ground balls and strikeouts, he can be a very effective relief pitcher.

The Orioles will have to offer Garcia back to the Red Sox if he isn't able to stick on the active roster all season. Garcia is simply not ready for the major leagues. Some teams will carry a promising young pitcher who's far from being ready, hoping to keep him and using him in mop-up roles. But those teams are usually not contenders (although Milwaukee did carry an inexperienced Wei-Chung Wang in 2014, getting him 17 major-league innings and 23 minor-league rehab innings around stints on the disabled list.) The Orioles are contenders and rely on every player on the roster. It doesn't seem likely that the Orioles will waste a roster spot on a pitcher like Garcia, limited to mop-up duty; and it doesn't seem likely that Boston wouldn't reclaim him if the Orioles offer him back. So while Garcia is worth selecting, it's doubtful that the Orioles will benefit.

These observations are generally confirmed by the published scouting reports. While Dan Duquette has had some solid but unspectacular success with the Rule 5 draft with Ryan Flaherty and T.J. McFarland, I don't think it's likely that he'll repeat his success with Logan Verrett or Jason Garcia.