With No Ervin Santana on the Way, O's Rotation Likely Set

Last week, Ervin Santana finally decided which team he wanted to play for and agreed to a deal with the Atlanta Braves for one year and $14.1 million. That's equal to the qualifying offer amount for 2013 that he and 12 other free agents turned down in November. With Santana now under contract, two of the 13 who rejected qualifying offers still remain unsigned: Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales. And two of those 13, Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, joined the Orioles.

The race for Santana seemed to be down to the Blue Jays and Orioles. Santana had apparently turned down a three-year offer from the Twins and was seeking a one-year deal. The O's and Blue Jays both had one-year deals on the table (the O's may have offered a three-year deal as well, though that was disputed), but the Braves entered the fold when starter Kris Medlen injured his elbow. The Orioles' and Blue Jays' offers were both in the $13-$14 million range, but Santana opted for Atlanta's offer instead. Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested that Santana picked the Braves because he wanted to pitch in the National League, and he probably did. That strategy makes sense for a pitcher who wants to put together a fantastic 2014 season that he hopes will land him a lucrative multiyear deal.

So Ervin Santana will not be joining the Orioles. This is what the O's rotation will likely be on opening day: Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, and Bud Norris. Before the O's signed Jimenez, Kevin Gausman arguably had the upper hand in the fifth starter race. But he will likely start the season in Norfolk, waiting for the Orioles' call if/when needed.

Chris "Ace" Tillman (photo: Keith Allison)

The 2013 Orioles used 14 different starting pitchers. Gone are Jason Hammel, Scott Feldman, Freddy Garcia, Jake Arrieta, and Jair Jurrjens (who combined for 304.1 innings pitched). Zach Britton will start the season in the bullpen, unless he's traded. Josh Stinson will also likely be in the bullpen. Steve Johnson (one) and T.J. McFarland (three) have options left and could both start the season in Norfolk. And Johan Santana will try to regain strength in his shoulder, hoping to be ready by the end of May.

Losing Feldman hurts a bit because he would have helped the back-end of the rotation (presumably bumping Norris). A healthy Hammel could have been nice to have as well; he was solid in 2012 but less so in 2013, and he battled injuries in both seasons. But the Orioles do have a better collection of starting rotation options overall than they did in 2013. The likely starting five listed above is flanked by Gausman, Britton, Johnson, McFarland, Stinson, and Johan Santana in some order. Other names to include are Suk-min Yoon; Brian Matusz the starter; prospects Mike Wright, Tim Berry, and Eduardo Rodriguez; and Dylan Bundy, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery. So the O's should not find themselves in the position of relying on the likes of Garcia and Jurrjens for innings.

As Nate wrote in January, Ervin Santana could have helped the Orioles, but maybe only by one additional win. But the Orioles' situation did change between now and then. They signed Jimenez and Cruz, meaning they will forfeit their first- and second-round picks in the upcoming MLB draft. So signing Santana last week would have meant losing a third-round pick, but since the O's did have an offer on the table, they seemingly had no issue with doing so. A rotation of Tillman, Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Chen, and Gonzalez (with Norris traded or moved to the bullpen) does look better, but not as much as you'd think. Here are the career numbers and 2014 Steamer and ZiPS projections for Santana, Norris, and Gonzalez in 2013:

Ervin Santana career: 7.09 K/9, 2.81 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9, 39.8 GB%, 11.0% HR/FB, 4.19 ERA
... 3 fWAR in 2013, Steamer projects 2 fWAR in 2014, ZiPS projects 1.7 fWAR in 2014

Miguel Gonzalez career: 6.41 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 37.4 GB%, 10.8 HR/FB, 3.58 ERA
... 1.7 fWAR in 2013, Steamer projects 1 fWAR in 2014, ZiPS projects 1.5 fWAR in 2014
(Gonzalez much smaller career sample size.)

Bud Norris career: 8.51 K/9, 3.71 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, 40.2 GB%, 10.8 HR/FB, 4.36 ERA
... 2.7 fWAR in 2013, Steamer projects 0.9 fWAR in 2014, ZiPS projects 2.4 fWAR in 2014

Steamer and ZiPS differ the most on Norris in 2014. Gonzalez has only thrown 276.2 innings in the majors and has outpitched his peripherals (low strikeout rate, BABIP, and groundball percentage) so far.

Gausman in glasses (photo: Eduardo Encina)

Santana is the better pitcher of the three, but it's not an enormous difference. If not for an injury or two to Atlanta's starting rotation, Santana could have decided to pitch in Baltimore in 2014, making the O's marginally better. But it's not like the addition of Santana would have transformed the O's rotation into a superior one. The current rotation, while not great, does look OK, and it will look even better if things start to click for Gausman in Norfolk and then eventually in the majors. Of the O's rotation depth, he's the starter with the most upside right now.

Could Ervin Santana Improve the Orioles Rotation?

Ervin Santana (photo via Keith Allison)

Unless you count signing players to minor league deals with spring training invites and failed physical exams, it’s been a pretty slow offseason for the Orioles.  Spring training is just around the corner, and there are only 9 free agents remaining on Keith Law’s top 50 free agent list.  Having said that, many of them don’t fit the current Baltimore roster, who still need to improve at several positions to be considered serious contenders.  One of those positions is starting pitcher, but as Matt mentioned yesterday, with the signings of Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza, the number of difference makers on that market is quickly becoming diminished.  One of those pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez, was the topic of yesterday’s post.  Today, we’ll take a look at Ervin Santana.

Santana has primarily worked with three pitches during his career, relying heavily on his low 90’s fastball and low 80’s slider, while occasionally throwing a change-up (<10% of the time).  He’s been durable as well, with two separate 15-day DL stints in 2009 for UCL sprain and triceps soreness in his throwing arm. Here is a quick look at how Santana has pitched over the course of his career.

Year	Age	Tm	ERA	IP	ERA+	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2005	22	LAA	4.65	133.2	91	1.1	3.2	6.7
2006	23	LAA	4.28	204.0	106	0.9	3.1	6.2
2007	24	LAA	5.76	150.0	79	1.6	3.5	7.6
2008	25	LAA	3.49	219.0	127	0.9	1.9	8.8
2009	26	LAA	5.03	139.2	87	1.5	3.0	6.9
2010	27	LAA	3.92	222.2	102	1.1	3.0	6.8
2011	28	LAA	3.38	228.2	111	1.0	2.8	7.0
2012	29	LAA	5.16	178.0	74	2.0	3.1	6.7
2013	30	KCR	3.24	211.0	127	1.1	2.2	6.9
9 Yrs			4.19	1686.2	100	1.2	2.8	7.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/27/2014.

As you can see, it’s been an up and down career, with his best year coming in 2008 and his worst in 2012.  In fact, among qualified starting pitchers in 2012, Santana ranked dead last in fWAR, producing -1.0 wins.  This wasn’t all entirely due to bad luck either, as his .241 BABIP in 2012 was a career low.  However, in 2013, he rebounded nicely by adding a sinker, which not only helped him keep the ball in the park (a HUGE issue for him in 2012), but also allowed him to pitch more effectively against left-handed batters, who had a .371 wOBA against him in 2012 compared to a .296 wOBA in 2013.  He was also able to decrease his walk rate by more than 2% while also slightly increasing his strikeout rate.

Santana is ranked #6 on Keith Law’s 2014 free agent list (ESPN Insider required, and recommended), and like many of the higher profile free agents remaining, comes attached with the loss of a draft pick for the team that signs him.  This isn’t something that should necessarily prevent a team from signing him, as long as there is a need and the team is contending for a playoff spot, meaning the added value of a win is extremely high.  Additionally, the fact that signing Santana results in the loss of a draft pick likely makes him available at a lower price than the market would otherwise bear (see 2013 Kyle Lohse).  In fact, Santana began the offseason seeking a contract worth more than $100 million, but has now reduced his asking price to somewhere in the 4 year, $60 million range.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun recently quoted Orioles GM Dan Duquette saying that he expected the team to have a payroll of $100 million entering the season, meaning they had about another $17 million to spend.  However, despite that ability to spend and Santana’s current asking price of $15 million annually, Santana won’t provide very much of an upgrade to the projected starting rotation.  Take a look at the starting rotation depth chart in the 2014 Baltimore Zips projection posted at Fangraphs in December.

Depth Chart courtesy of Fangraphs

While the Orioles clearly lack an ace in their starting rotation, they do have roughly league average pitchers occupying the #1 to #5 spots in the rotation.  And at just over $10 million total, it’s a very cost effective group.  Assuming that Santana produces 3 fWAR in 2014 (Steamer projects him at 2.7 fWAR), then slotting him in the rotation at the expense of one of Gonzalez, Norris, Chen, or Gausman only adds approximately 1 more win to the 2014 Orioles.  And unless there would be additional significant improvements made by the team (highly unlikely this close to spring training), that one additional win Santana provides them will not only cost them approximately $15 million annually and their 2014 first round draft pick, but it's also unlikely to make them any more of a playoff contender than currently constructed.