Performance Scouting the Independant Leagues: American Association

Performance scouting can be a dreadfully misleading thing to do.  Statistics can often hide things.  It can hide a player who is incredibly skilled, but inexperienced and facing competition much greater than should be facing.  It can also hide a flawed player who hits poor pitching quite well.  These issues we observe each year as players who dominated the minor leagues struggle greatly in the Majors.  This does not mean the stats are worthless, but that they are an incomplete story.  They certainly can enable to see things that get lost in a handful of looks.  Likewise, a handful of looks can sometimes see things that the stats do not.  Ideally, you want them both together to give you a full picture.

However, I do not have the considerable resources I need to actively scout the independent leagues.  Additionally, I do not have the considerable connections needed to ask people who have a good read on the players in the independent leagues.  So, I will be doing some performance scouting.  That performance scouting will be based on an approach I have used for collegiate numbers.

I will be focusing on three skills measured with four metrics.  To qualify as being exceptional for a specific skill, the player needs to rank in the top 20% of players in the league for that metric.  The skills:

Plate discipline - I measure plate discipline by the walk rate (BB%) and the ratio of walks to strikeouts (BB:K).  The intention behind this is to target players who have a good understanding of hittable pitches and their ability to work for a walk.

Contact rate - I use batting average for this.  From an anecdotal perspective, players with good plate discipline AND poor contact rates have trouble progressing through the minors.  As they face a greater number of pitchers with more command of their pitches, the opportunities for walks will decrease.  Pitchers are more likely to pitch in the zone and for a player to make contact.  Players who do not have good contact rates tend to get eaten up as they move on to higher levels of competition.

Power - Good contact rate and plate discipline are a great foundation for a hitting skill set.  However, slapping the ball in professional leagues with players who field better is not as useful.  There are just not many Ichiro Suzukis out there who have the speed to take advantage of a rapidly improving defense.  In the pro game, there needs to be some power to go along with these skills.  Otherwise, pitchers will go at hitters and give them pitches to hit, knowing that there is unlikely to be much damage.

Additionally, these leagues have a level of competition that is more or less on par with low A and below talent with an occasional old salt who would be average in AA.  As such, I am looking for players who are 25 and younger (emphasis on younger) where there may be some hope for a few years of development.  This kind of player should be not available in these leagues.  The MLB scouting apparatus should have found them and locked them into their minor league systems.

The first independent league I will cover is the American Association.

Buddy Sososkie

The American Association came together in 2005 with teams from the Northern League and Central League joining together.  The vast majority of players in this league range from 26 to 30 years in age.  Players coming from this league to the minors will often be younger than majority of players here and be players who at worst are above average.  For pitchers, the typical pitcher making a move is someone who has a high strikeout rate.  For position players, the typical player making a move will be athletic, playing a premium defensive position, as well as showing good contact and, at worst, good gap power.  Last year, the Orioles signed one position players from the American Association: outfielder Buddy Sosnoskie.  He did not make it out of Spring Training with the organization.  The take home to that being that it is difficult to be an overlooked independent league talent.  There are only a few guys out there that will be able to be successful in the minors.

The marks for a top 20% hitter in the AA are performances above 11.56 BB%, 0.97 BB:K, .315 AVG, and .194 ISO.  Does anyone younger than 26 and with at least 300 plate appearances stand out in 2013?  No, but there are some near hits.

Mike Padgett 1B/3B
35 years old
Drafted in 5th Round (Clemson) in 1998, Florida Marlins

Year	Age	Tm	Lev	Aff	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG
1998	20	Utica	A-	FLA	271	9	1	4	4	3	22	73	.219	.281	.312
1999	21	Kane County	A	FLA	181	9	0	5	1	0	20	40	.333	.409	.484
2000	22	Kane County	A	FLA	506	22	2	12	5	3	53	139	.233	.318	.372
2001	23	Brevard County	A+	FLA	515	37	2	8	10	1	64	101	.293	.390	.441
2002	24	Portland	AA	FLA	452	26	1	16	6	5	43	131	.234	.310	.421
2003	25	Carolina	AA	FLA	516	29	1	17	2	3	43	104	.277	.337	.455
2004	26	Albuquerque	AAA	FLA	478	28	4	24	1	5	36	123	.267	.325	.515
2005	27	Albuquerque	AAA	FLA	515	28	3	17	3	1	47	131	.296	.361	.480
2006	28	2 Teams	AA-AAA	PHI,CHC	226	12	2	5	0	0	25	54	.260	.350	.418
2006	28	Reading	AA	PHI	157	9	2	4	0	0	18	34	.304	.395	.489
2006	28	Iowa	AAA	CHC	69	3	0	1	0	0	7	20	.164	.246	.262
2007	29	2 Teams	AA-AAA	PHI	496	30	1	12	1	0	34	93	.247	.298	.396
2007	29	Reading	AA	PHI	364	22	0	8	1	0	27	68	.232	.287	.370
2007	29	Ottawa	AAA	PHI	132	8	1	4	0	0	7	25	.287	.326	.467
2008	30	York	Ind		483	31	6	9	1	0	60	86	.303	.389	.469
2009	31	York	Ind		526	27	2	7	7	2	55	73	.274	.350	.387
2010	32	Long Island	Ind		323	20	1	5	1	0	32	57	.275	.348	.404
2011	33	Long Island	Ind		469	24	1	11	5	0	40	89	.282	.348	.423
2012	34	Southern Maryland	Ind		496	25	1	12	2	0	53	98	.251	.335	.394
2013	35	2 Teams	Ind		444	37	3	24	3	3	69	69	.334	.437	.644
2013	35	Kansas City	Ind		362	33	2	19	1	3	58	56	.337	.442	.650
2013	35	New Jersey	Ind		82	4	1	5	2	0	11	13	.324	.415	.620
16 Seasons					6897	394	31	188	52	26	696	1461	.273	.348	.440
A- (1 season)			A-		271	9	1	4	4	3	22	73	.219	.281	.312
Ind (6 seasons)			Ind		2741	164	14	68	19	5	309	472	.286	.368	.451
A (2 seasons)			A		687	31	2	17	6	3	73	179	.260	.342	.402
A+ (1 season)			A+		515	37	2	8	10	1	64	101	.293	.390	.441
AA (4 seasons)			AA		1489	86	4	45	9	8	131	337	.255	.323	.427
AAA (4 seasons)			AAA		1194	67	8	46	4	6	97	299	.276	.336	.481

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/10/2013.

Padgett has continued his travels in Independent ball to Kansas City and New Jersey where he excelled on all four metrics, but at the age of 35.  The last time he was with an MLB affiliated team was 2007 with Ottawa.  He had a career where he was really only a break or two away from getting a cup of coffee with both the Marlins and Phillies, but the opportunity never seemed to present itself.  As an Indy player in 2013, he has been a top 10% performer with walk rate, batting average, and isolated power.  He was a top 20% performer with BB:K.  He would probably be a below average AAA player with this level of performance.

The Near Misses
Ryan Scoma, 1B
25 years old
Scoma was a 36th round, 2009 selection for the Giants.  He proved to be a first basemen with gap power and that simply was not going to get things done.  In 2013, he was a top 10% performer with BB%, BB:K, and batting average.  However, he has not seen any growth in his power.  It would be surprising to me if he signs with an MLB organization.

Willie Cabrera, 2B/LF
26 years old
Cabrera was drafted out of a JuCo by the Braves in the 14th round in 2005.  He performed well up through AA, but suffered greatly in two AAA stints and does not appear to truly play any position well.  If he has a place in the minors, it would be as a left fielder.  In 2013, he was a top 10% performer with BB:K and a top 20% performer with batting average and isolated power.  His walk rate was acceptable for the league.  At 26, this might be his last chance to stick with an MLB organization.  I would consider giving him a shot in Spring Training though my optimism would be greatly tempered.

Abel Nieves, 3B
27 years old
Nieves was a 50th round pick by the Angels in 2004.  He was a decent 3B, showed no acumen with the bat once he left A ball.  In 2013,  he was a top 10% performer with BB:K and AVG while being a top 20% performer with BB%.  He needs to show more power and it seems doubtful he ever will.

C.J. Ziegler, 1B
27 years old
Ziegler was taken out of Arizona in the 16th round by the Giants in 2008.  He showed some power, but was over several years older than his competition.  As an indy player, he has shown great power.  In 2013, his .327 ISO was an elite show.  He also was a top 20%er with BB% and batting average.  His most glaring issue is that he has been a little too easy to strike out given the players he has hit against.  He probably deserves to fill out someone's organization to see how his power shakes out in the minors.

Ron Bourquin, 3B
28 years old
Borquin was a notable 2nd round selection by the Detroit Tigers in 2006.  He walked a decent amount, struck out a little too much, had moderate power, and had difficulty fielding.  He still appears to struggle in the field and may be able to play at 1B.  He was a top 10%er with BB% and ISO and a top 20%er with BB:K.  With his age and fielding problems, I don't see how he would fit in an organizational as filler.

Brent Clevlen, LF
29 years old
Clevlen is a another Tiger 2nd rounder, but was drafted in 2002.  Before 2004, he was a Baseball America top 100 prospect.  In 2006, 282/317/641 over 42 plate appearances made it appear that he was a MLBer for good.  That was not the case.  In the minors he has spent time with the Tigers, Braves, Reds, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.  In 2012, Clevlen performed well for the Diamondbacks, but a shaky start in 2013 led to his release.  Once in the American Association, he was a top 10%er in ISO and a top 20%er in BB% and batting average.  With his background, one would think he should be able to find a home with an MLB organization next year and be a potential 6th outfielder.

Conclusion
I would not suggest that anyone here needs to be signed.  There are a couple guys, Cabrera and Ziegler, who I think would be interesting players as organizational filler.  If Aaron Baker will be up in Bowie, then I could see Ziegler being able to get some time in Frederick.  They does not seem to be an obvious player currently in the organization to start the year there.  Cabrera?  Left field and second base looks too crowded to me for him to get any time.  However, I do not think either of these players are needs.

Next time...
Atlantic League

The Orioles are Going Indy: American Association

Players wind up in Independent baseball for a variety of reasons.  A player may have been a top performer in a mid to low level college program or from AA or below.  Another route is that the player was injured throughout college and was never able to show enough on the field or in tryouts to convince a MLB team to take a chance on him.  Or maybe a team actually drafted the player, but for a variety of reasons gave up on him.  Many quit when the above happens, but some have a passion that still burns bright enough to endure pay that is equivalent to about a dollar per hour at the park that leaves some players sleeping in cars or sharing the clubhouse floor.  It is a difficult life.  Still, some, like George Sherrill, make it to the Majors and that fuels the self-determination of many.

Each year, Baseball America ranks the top 20 prospects from Independent leagues.  These names are some of the few who have turned heads with their performance.  Typically, this list is populated with athletic positions players and pitchers who have one fringe plus pitch.  With that in mind, you are generally looking at players whose ceiling is a fourth outfielder or a relief pitchers.  Guys like Daniel Nava, the aforementioned George Sherrill, or Brandon Sisk should come to mind.  In other words, Independent leagues have the potential to pipeline talent to the Majors, but that pipeline provides product that has a relatively low ceiling and few on Baseball America's rankings ever make a significant contribution to a big league club. 

Below is the top 10 of Baseball America's list with the MLB teams that signed this this past off season.

1. Kevin Gelinas, LHP, Amarillo (NA) - Miami Marlins
2. Chris Cox, RHP, Quebec (Can-Am) - Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Jonathan Kountis, RHP, Lake Erie (Frontier) - Unsigned*
4. A.J. Nunziato, SS, Washington (Frontier) - Unsigned*
5. Alfonso Yevoli, LHP, Washington (Frontier) - Atlanta Braves
6. Jason Martin, OF, Abilene (Frontier) - Unsigned*
7. Buddy Sosnoskie, OF, Fargo-Moorhead (A-A) - Baltimore Orioles
8. Robert Coe, RHP, St. Paul (A-A) - Arizona Diamondbacks
9. James Hoyt, RHP, (A-A / NA) - Atlanta Braves
10. Brandon Sinnery, RHP, (Can-Am / A-A) - Unsigned*

* - I was unable to find any information on these players being picked up by any MLB affiliated clubs.  However, this information is not always readily reported.

Based on the listing above as well as transaction reports, it appears that the three most active teams in the Independent league market have been the Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, and the Baltimore Orioles.  I am unsure about the Diamondbacks and the Braves, but this is a new occurrence for the Baltimore Orioles.  They had typically ignored Indy ball outside of the Lancaster Barnstormers where the organization has had a great number of former personnel employed over the years.

Based on my count, the Orioles have signed ten players who spent the past season in the Independent Leagues:

American Association
P Marcel Prado, El Paso
P Chase Johnson, Amarillo
P David Quinowski, Lincoln
P Kyle Mertins, Sioux Falls
OF Buddy Sosnoskie, Fargo-Moorhead

Frontier League
P Logan Mahon, Gateway
P Mike Recchia, Windy City
SS Chris Wade, Windy City
C Jim Vahalik, Washington Wild Things

Pecos League
P Luis Pardo, Trinidad Triggers

This article is the first of two.  This one will focus on players signed from the American Association while the second will include those from the Frontier League and the Pecos League.

The American Association came together in 2005 with teams from the Northern League and Central League joining together.  The vast majority of players in this league range from 26 to 30 years in age.  Players coming from this league to the minors will often be younger than majority of players here and be players who at worst are above average.  For pitchers, the typical pitcher making a move is someone who has a high strikeout rate.  For position players, the typical player making a move will be athletic, playing a premium defensive position, as well as showing good contact and, at worst, good gap power.

More detail of the Oriole signees:

Marcel Prado RHRP
25 years old

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2006	18	Dodgers	DOSL	FRk	LAD	0	4	8.85	12	4	20.1	11.1	0.4	10.2	8.4
2007	19	Dodgers	DOSL	FRk	LAD	1	0	1.24	13	4	36.1	5.7	0.0	5.7	10.2
2008	20	Ogden	PION	Rk	LAD	1	1	4.86	21	0	37.0	9.5	0.2	6.1	9.7
2009	21	Inland Empire	CALL	A+	LAD	2	2	4.06	41	0	44.1	9.7	0.4	5.7	4.1
2010	22	2 Teams	2 Lgs	Ind		0	3	10.80	9	1	10.0	12.6	1.8	7.2	4.5
2010	22	Yuma	GOBL	Ind		0	1	3.60	5	0	5.0	7.2	3.6	1.8	1.8
2010	22	Rio Grande Valley	UNLB	Ind		0	2	18.00	4	1	5.0	18.0	0.0	12.6	7.2
2012	24	El Paso	AA	Ind		2	3	3.38	44	0	50.2	8.5	0.2	3.6	7.6
6 Seasons						6	13	4.35	140	9	198.2	8.9	0.3	5.8	7.6
Ind (2 seasons)				Ind		2	6	4.60	53	1	60.2	9.2	0.4	4.2	7.1
FRk (2 seasons)				FRk		1	4	3.97	25	8	56.2	7.6	0.2	7.3	9.5
Rk (1 season)				Rk		1	1	4.86	21	0	37.0	9.5	0.2	6.1	9.7
A+ (1 season)				A+		2	2	4.06	41	0	44.1	9.7	0.4	5.7	4.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2013.

It is often difficult to find information about low level international signings as well as guys who have spent significant time in the independent leagues.  His past history suggests a pitcher with some swing and miss pitches at low levels, but poor control/command over his career.  The American Association is a pretty tough league for younger players, so Prado doing well in relief as a 24 year old suggests at the very least he should provide as decent filler in a pen.  I would think he would be targeted for Frederick or Delmarva, whichever team needs more depth.

Chase Johnson RHRP
25 years old

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2009	21	Phillies	GULF	Rk	PHI	0	1	3.94	15	0	29.2	8.5	0.6	3.6	10.6
2010	22	Williamsport	NYPL	A-	PHI	1	2	2.79	26	0	29.0	6.8	0.6	5.0	9.9
2011	23	Lakewood	SALL	A	PHI	4	6	4.31	38	0	71.0	9.3	0.4	3.4	8.1
2012	24	Amarillo	AA	Ind		5	5	3.66	44	0	46.2	8.3	0.6	4.2	8.9
4 Seasons						10	14	3.83	123	0	176.1	8.5	0.5	3.9	9.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2013.

Like Prado, Johnson spent his age 24 season in the American Association and performed well.  I am unsure as to why the Phillies released Johnson last spring as it is quite obvious that he was not injured and potentially could have been good depth in their system.  They drafted him in the 21st round out of South Mountain CC in 2009.  Johnson flashed a fastball that was in the low 90s and was seen as a relief arm.  Johnson is more accomplished than Prado, but also has shown some wildness.

David Quinowski LHRP
27 year old

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2005	19	Salem-Keizer	NORW	A-	SFG	2	1	3.21	19	0	14.0	7.7	0.6	9.0	12.2
2006	20	Augusta	SALL	A	SFG	4	2	1.43	44	0	75.1	4.3	0.1	2.9	9.1
2007	21	San Jose	CALL	A+	SFG	1	2	3.27	21	0	33.0	5.2	0.3	4.4	9.5
2009	23	Salem-Keizer	NORW	A-	SFG	2	1	1.77	22	0	40.2	6.6	0.4	4.0	11.7
2010	24	San Jose	CALL	A+	SFG	3	2	2.32	28	0	42.2	7.4	0.4	2.7	10.8
2010	24	Richmond	EL	AA	SFG	2	0	2.84	12	0	12.2	7.1	0.7	3.6	9.9
2011	25	Richmond	EL	AA	SFG	4	3	3.64	40	1	54.1	8.1	0.7	3.1	6.5
2012	26	Somerset	ATLL	Ind		0	0	6.10	11	0	10.1	9.6	3.5	3.5	5.2
2012	26	Lincoln, Gary	AA	Ind		3	2	3.86	32	0	30.1	6.8	0.0	3.9	9.8
7 Seasons						21	13	2.70	229	1	313.1	6.5	0.5	3.6	9.4
Ind (1 season)				Ind		3	2	4.43	43	0	40.2	7.5	0.9	3.8	8.6
AA (2 seasons)				AA		6	3	3.49	52	1	67.0	7.9	0.7	3.2	7.1
A- (2 seasons)				A-		4	2	2.14	41	0	54.2	6.9	0.5	5.3	11.9
A+ (2 seasons)				A+		4	4	2.74	49	0	75.2	6.4	0.4	3.4	10.2
A (1 season)				A		4	2	1.43	44	0	75.1	4.3	0.1	2.9	9.1

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2013.

Back when Qunowski was in the Giants organization, his success was in large part due to his deceptive delivery rather than his mid 80s fastball.  Although he did quite well in the American Association, there is certainly some concern that as the level increases that the pitching style simply will no longer work.  That said, he has shown some competence at the AA level, so he should be able to strengthen Bowie's pen or perhaps even Norfolk.

Kyle Mertins RHRP
25 years old

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
2010	22	Danville	APPY	Rk	ATL	0	1	3.86	7	0	11.2	5.4	0.0	3.9	3.9
2010	22	Braves	GULF	Rk	ATL	0	0	3.00	4	0	6.0	6.0	0.0	1.5	7.5
2010	22	Rome	SALL	A	ATL	0	2	4.82	9	0	18.2	9.6	1.4	2.9	7.7
2011	23	Rome	SALL	A	ATL	1	3	2.25	22	0	28.0	9.3	0.0	2.9	6.4
2012	24	Sioux Falls	AA	Ind		4	1	1.00	45	0	54.0	6.0	0.2	2.3	9.0
3 Seasons						5	7	2.28	87	0	118.1	7.3	0.3	2.7	7.6
A (2 seasons)				A		1	5	3.28	31	0	46.2	9.4	0.6	2.9	6.9
Rk (1 season)				Rk		0	1	3.57	11	0	17.2	5.6	0.0	3.1	5.1
Ind (1 season)				Ind		4	1	1.00	45	0	54.0	6.0	0.2	2.3	9.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2013.

Mertins was rated as Baseball America's 19th best independent league prospect.  Although that is something none of the other acquired arms above can claim, that praise is somewhat faint.  That main difference I can detect in old scouting reports and the numbers is that Mertins can match his average stuff with control.  Mertins when he was with the Braves was a classic 4 seam fastball and slider pitcher who did well in the low minors, but will need to be diligent in keeping the ball lower in the zone as he progresses.  Braves are often noted as a team that only gives up on prospects who will not become Major Leaguers though I think that praise is more of a forced narrative than reality.  That said, Mertins is probably low minors depth.

Buddy Sosnoskie OF
24 years old

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	AB	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	23	Fargo-Moorhead	AA	Ind	53	200	192	18	2	2	9	2	5	24	.339	.357	.484	.841
1 Season					53	200	192	18	2	2	9	2	5	24	.339	.357	.484	.841

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/6/2013.

Sosnoskie is perhaps the only one from the Orioles incoming independent league players to be considered having a decent ceiling.  Sosnoskie originally played for the Hokies.  He red shirted as a freshman with shoulder surgery, played little his freshman year in 2009, and then made enough noise in 2010 to be drafted by the Royals in the 25th round.  He decided to reject the Royals offers and then asked Virginia Tech to let him out of his obligation to permit him to transfer to DII school Francis Marion.  He had mentioned at the time that he wanted to go to a program that treated the team more similarly to professional teams.  A program that emphasized playing baseball instead of running drills.  In 2011, he showed solid gap power and above average defense, but no one drafted him.  The same happened in 2012, so he went to Fargo-Moorhead in the American Association where he once again showed good gap power and above average defense.  He does not really do anything exceptional and his lack of walks is a concern, but he did very well as a first year player playing against guys many years old and more experienced than he is.  I would expect him to sit in extended Spring Training if the transition is more difficult than expected.  Otherwise, it would not be a surprise to see him in the outfield mix out in Delmarva.