The Ones They Gave Away - Nick Delmonico and Josh Hader

During the 2013 season, the Orioles traded two prospects in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to make the postseason. On July 23, the Orioles traded Nick Delmonico to acquire relief pitcher Francisco Rodriguez from the Brewers. On July 31, the Orioles included Josh Hader in a package to acquire starting pitcher Bud Norris from the Astros. Going into the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Delmonico as the number 4 prospect in the Orioles system, and he had produced a .819 OPS at High-A Frederick. Baseball America had ranked Hader as the #19 prospect in the Orioles system, an impressive ranking for a nineteenth-round draft pick in the season he was drafted. Hader made the midseason all-star team in the Low-A South Atlantic League in 2013, and had pitched 85 innings with a 2.65 ERA.

Both Delmonico and Hader ranked among their new team's top 30 prospects in Baseball America's 2014 Prospect Handbook. Delmonico is the Brewers' number 12 prospect, and Hader is the Astros' number 14 prospect. That raises an interesting question - if Delmonico and Hader were still in the Orioles' system, where would they rank?

Before I look more closely at that question, I need to mention a few points about prospect rankings. The Depot has provided its 2014 top ten prospect rankings, as have many other people and organizations. We should remember that "ten" is an arbitrary number and that there may not be much difference between the tenth-best prospect - who makes the list - and perhaps the fifteenth-best, who doesn't. We should also remember that a specific rank may be determined by the evaluator's personal biases, especially for players rated closely together. The Depot is, in our own words, more bullish on Christian Walker than most - in part, I think, because Walker represents a class of player Jon believes to be undervalued. I am more bearish on Mike Wright than most, because I've seen Wright pitch twice and was unimpressed. I did see Nick Delmonico play on June 4 and Josh Hader pitch on June 9, and they played well. While I'm going to try to not let my experience color my judgment, be forewarned that it might.

As a standard for measuring prospects, I'm going to use Baseball America's grade/risk system from its Prospect Handbook. The grade, on what is essentially a 40-80 system, is an attempt to measure a prospect's realistic ceiling, with a 40 being a bench player or low-leverage relief pitcher and 75-80 being a franchise cornerstone. The risk, ranging from extreme to safe, is an attempt to measure how much more development the prospect needs to reach his ceiling. Delmonico and Hader are both 50/High, which means BA thinks their realistic ceiling is solid-average regular player who might play in an all-star game in a good year (for Delmonico) or fourth starter on a typical playoff team (for Hader) but that they'll have to develop quite a bit to reach that ceiling.

Another aside - it's somewhat revealing that Delmonico is the twelfth-best prospect in a bad farm system (BA ranks the Brewers 29th) and that Hader is the fourteenth-best prospect in a good farm system (the Astros are fifth.) If this is typical - every farm system's tenth-through-fifteenth prospects are all graded 50/high - it means that the differences among farm systems is either at the very front end, at the back end, or both.

The Orioles have several prospects whom Baseball America grades at 50/High:

• #6 Tim Berry
• #8 Mike Wright
• #9 Michael Ohlman
• #11 Zach Davies
• #12 Adrian Marin
• #13 Josh Hart
• #14 Steven Brault

BA's #10 prospect is Chance Sisco, whom they grade at 55/Extreme, virtually equivalent to 50/High with a higher peak but more development required. Their #7 prospect is Henry Urrutia, an older Cuban refugee whom they grade at 45/Low. His unusual background makes him less of a traditional prospect; for this exercise I'll leave him out of the discussion. There are legitimate reasons for ranking him ahead of this prospect cluster and legitimate reasons for ranking him behind this prospect cluster. I will also leave Sisco, Hart, and Brault out of the discussion because I know almost nothing about them. They were players acquired in the June 2013 draft and have played less than a full season of professional ball.

The obvious player to compare Nick Delmonico to is Michael Ohlman. Both are bat-first players who really project as first basemen or left fielders - Delmonico has played third base but it's questionable if he can stick there; Ohlman is nominally a catcher but almost certainly won't stick there. (Ohlman caught 1/3 of the games at Frederick last season; the others were split between Allan de san Miguel, a 25-year-old minor league free agent, and Zane Chavez, a 26-year-old independent league refugee.) Both played at high-A in 2013. Neither Delmonico nor Ohlman has been durable.

There are some differences. Delmonico is eighteen months younger than Ohlman. Delmonico hits left-handed, Ohlman right-handed. Ohlman had a much better 2013 season than did Delmonico, .313/.410/.524 to .232/.346/.423 (although Delmonico's numbers were depressed by his time with the Brewers' Florida State League affiliate.) Delmonico has been consistent in his two professional seasons; Ohlman's 2013 was substantially better than any other of his seasons and his professional career has been an archetype of inconsistency.

If you believe that Ohlman's 2013 is a consequence of his development, then you would rank Ohlman ahead of Delmonico. If you think Delmonico's youth gives him more development room, then you would rank Delmonico ahead of Ohlman. I don't think there's any question that Delmonico ranks close to Ohlman as a prospect.

The obvious player to compare Josh Hader to is Tim Berry. Both are left-handed starting pitchers listed at 6'3". In 2013, Hader pitched at low-A at age 19; Berry pitched at high-A at age 22. Both strike out around seven batters per nine innings. Hader appears to have more room for physical development than Berry does; he's listed at 160 pounds while Berry is listed at 180 pounds. Berry has much better control than Hader and has been more durable. On the other hand, Berry pitched much worse at Delmarva when he was there than Hader did, and Hader was a year younger. I think it's reasonable to conclude that Hader probably has slightly more upside than Berry does, but also Hader must develop more than Berry.

Both Delmonico and Hader are roughly equal as prospects to Ohlman and Berry, and consequently with the other 50/High prospects mentioned above. So, depending on your subjective preferences, Delmonico and Hader could rank between sixth and sixteenth among the Orioles prospects. The Orioles, in hindsight, would not have made the Delmonico trade and it's still too early to reach a firm conclusion on the Hader trade. But both Delmonico and Hader would have ranked among the better prospects in the Orioles system.

Who Might Be at Norfolk in 2013?

In Baseball America’s prospect handbook, I’m especially interested in the players whom I’m likely to see at Norfolk, either for the Tides or for a visiting team. As part of the write-ups on each prospect, Baseball America projects where he will play in the upcoming season. This article will focus on the players who might play at Norfolk in 2013.

Earlier this off-season, I was emailing with the Norfolk Tides Director of Media Relations, with whom I've worked closely over the past several years. He mentioned that he's been tracking the Orioles' minor-league free-agent signings, and that he thinks there are about 86 players – he may have been exaggerating -- who could or should be on the Tides' opening-day roster. As an example, he listed eighteen pitchers who could be in the Tides’ starting rotation.

#1 Dylan Bundy is the Orioles top pitching prospect, who in 2012 raced from Low-A to High-A to AA to the major leagues. He was dominant at Low-A and High-A and held his own in limited AA and major-league action. BA states that it’s possible that Bundy will make the Orioles out of spring training, but that an assignment to AA or AAA is more likely. I predict the Orioles will assign Bundy to AA Bowie, in part because of the number of pitchers who could pitch at Norfolk, and in part because the Orioles may want Bundy to be close-at-hand both in case they want to call him up quickly and to keep an eye on him.

#2 Kevin Gausman was the Orioles’ #1 2012 draft pick, a pitcher from LSU. He’s an advanced and highly-regarded prospect, but he only has fifteen innings of professional experience. He might follow Dylan Bundy, move quickly through the system, and spend some time at Norfolk, but I think the Orioles might start him at Frederick to get his feet wet.

#3 Jonathan Schoop is likely to get a return engagement at Bowie. He’s young; he won’t turn 22 until after the 2013 season. His 2012 OPS of .710 at Bowie indicates that he still has something to prove at AA.

#6 L.J. Hoes will either make the Orioles out of spring training or start 2013 at Norfolk.

#7 Xavier Avery will either make the Orioles out of spring training or start 2013 at Norfolk.

 BA states that #8 Mike Wright will start 2013 at Norfolk. I think he'll start 2013 at Bowie. He didn’t pitch well in a half-season at Bowie in 2012 and he’ll be fighting with the seventeen other pitchers. The Orioles have invested a lot in him, why rush him?

#16 Steve Johnson should, by all measures, make the Orioles out of spring training. He pitched well with both Norfolk and Baltimore in 2012 and will turn 26 in August. The problem is that he’s fighting a crowd of candidates for the Orioles’ rotation, he has options left, and the Orioles may prefer him to pitch regularly in Norfolk than as a long relief pitcher in Baltimore. The good news for him is that even if he does start the season in Norfolk, he’ll likely be an early recall to Baltimore when they need a starting pitcher.

#17 Clay Schrader is a relief pitcher who has pitched very well throughout the Orioles’ minor-league system. He had a 2.74 ERA with Bowie last season, and turns 23 in April, so he might normally be considered for Norfolk. But since he only pitched 23 innings at AA, and there are plenty of pitchers competing at Norfolk, he will likely start 2013 at Bowie.

#21 Tsuyoshi Wada is a wild card. A 32-year-old with a long career in Japan, Wada underwent Tommy John surgery and missed almost all of 2012. Depending on where he is in his recovery, he could start in Bowie, in Norfolk, in extended spring training, or on the disabled list.

#22 T.J. McFarland is a major-league Rule 5 draftee from the Indians organization. He pitched 2/3 of 2012 at AAA Columbus and, under normal circumstances, would be a candidate for Norfolk in 2013. However, as a major-league Rule 5 draftee, he can’t be sent to the minor leagues without (1) clearing waivers and (2) being offered back to Cleveland for $25,000. The Orioles obviously like McFarland, and he’ll be given every chance to win a job in spring training. The Indians don’t have a lot of pitching, especially left-handed pitching, in their organization, so I’d think that they’d take McFarland back if he doesn’t make the Orioles.

#24 Mike Belfiore, acquired from Arizona in exchange for Josh Bell, had a great 2012 after being unimpressive earlier in his career. BA thinks Belfiore will start 2013 in Norfolk, but I think he’s as likely to be a victim of the numbers game and start 2013 at Bowie. Even if he does, he’ll spend some time in Norfolk if he continues to pitch well.

#28 Oliver Drake is sort of a cross between Mike Wright and Tsuyoshi Wada – a pitcher who is recovering from surgery – in Drake’s case shoulder surgery – and who hasn’t really proven that he’s mastered AA. Although he made an emergency appearance in 2011 at Norfolk, he’s much more likely to start the year again at Bowie.

#30 Ty Kelly is an organization player who had an outstanding 2012, dominating at Class A, playing well at AA, and holding his own in a two-week stint at AAA. BA thinks he’ll start 2013 at Norfolk, and he might, but given that he has fewer than 200 AA plate appearances, it might be more prudent for him to start 2013 at Bowie. In his case, his placement may depend on positional need – if Norfolk needs an infielder, he may be assigned to Norfolk.

Baseball America's Evaluation of the Orioles' Farm System -- A Critique

Every year, Baseball America (BA) publishes its Prospect Handbook, in which they profile their top 30 prospects for each team. Because I get to see so many Norfolk Tides’ games, I read the Handbook to learn about the players I’ll be seeing. It’s also interesting to see how more expert evaluators regard players I may have already seen. This article will review Baseball America’s assessment of the Orioles farm system in general terms. While I don’t claim to be as expert as Baseball America, I see more Norfolk games and focus on different things as a milb.com datacaster and BIS scorer.  I’ve also seen many players exceed their projections and many more fail to meet theirs.

Baseball America rates Baltimore’s farm system, overall, at #17.  I think that’s too high; I would rate them #21 or #22. Baseball America’s rating is driven by one player – Dylan Bundy. BA rates Bundy as the best pitching and #2 overall prospect in baseball; I’ve never seen Dylan Bundy pitch so I am not going to disagree.  But I believe that BA gives Bundy too much weight in evaluating the Orioles’ farm system. BA argues that having one outstanding prospect – who, in the best case, projects to being historically great – is better than having several prospects projected to be solid players or occasional all-stars. Looking back, when Albert Pujols was in the Cardinals’ farm system, he was so valuable that even though the St. Louis Cardinals had very little depth in their farm system behind him, it would be foolish to claim that the Cardinals had a substandard farm system. BA editor Jim Callis puts their philosophy best as “You win with stars.”

I have two issues with their approach. The lesser point is the safety-in-numbers point, which is that a farm system with a very small number of prospects is vulnerable if something goes wrong.  I do agree that an Albert Pujols is worth more than ten middle relievers or utility infielders; I merely think that one Albert Pujols-type prospect isn’t enough to say that a team has a good farm system. The bigger point is that having a star, or even two or three stars, isn’t enough to guarantee that your team will be successful. The 1967-1973 Cubs with Billy Williams, Ron Santo, and Ferguson Jenkins, the 1979-1984 Expos with Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, and Tim Raines, the turn-of-the-century Mariners with Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez, and Ken Griffey – won one division title among the four of them. Stars aren’t enough; you need solid regulars around them.

And the Orioles farm system doesn’t have the prospects that will produce those solid regulars. #1 prospect Dylan Bundy looks like the new Greg Maddux. And #2 Kevin Gausman looks like a solid #2 starting pitcher. But after that, there isn’t much there.  #3 Jonathan Schoop is starting to remind me of Luis Rivas; he’s been very young for the levels he’s played at, but he also hasn’t really done much at those levels. He’s highly rated because of his youth and projection, and as a farm system’s number three prospect, he’s okay. But #4 Nick Delmonico is a corner infielder with a history of back problems who slugged .413 in low-A ball. #5 Ed Rodriguez is a one-year wonder who struck out 6.1 batters per nine innings at Low-A.  Again, these are two players who have to develop but about whom there are large question marks. I’ll discuss #6 L.J. Hoes below. #7 Xavier Avery and #14 Glynn Davis are raw outfielders with athletic talents and undeveloped their baseball skills. #8 Mike Wright and #11 Tim Berry are college pitchers who might become innings-eating starters, but with have current career ERAs over 4.50. #9 Branden Kline, #10 Adrian Marin, and #12 Christian Walker are the second-, third-, and fourth-round draft picks from 2012; they aren’t any better than other second, third, and fourth-round picks. #13 Henry Urrutia is a Cuban defector who hasn’t even been cleared to play.  These players can still develop. But when you compares those prospects to the equivalent prospects  in Kansas City, Colorado, or Atlanta – the systems BA ranks immediately below the Orioles –they fall far enough short that Dylan Bundy isn’t enough to lift the Orioles over those teams.

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I also believe Baseball America has underrated L.J. Hoes.  He’s listed as their #6 prospect, and I believe he should clearly be at least #4 and I might be persuaded that he should rank at #3, ahead of Jonathan Schoop. I’ve written before about L.J. Hoes, and why I think he can become a legitimate starting left fielder in the major leagues. Baseball America doesn’t think so. They believe his ceiling is as a “platoon / utility player,” although they do think he’s likely to reach that level and almost certain to have a major-league career beyond his 2012 cup of coffee. Their #4 and #5 rated prospects – Nick Delmonico and Eduardo Rodriguez -- have ceilings of “second-division regular … #4 starter on [a] good team”. BA acknowledges that they are much riskier prospects, since they’ve just played low-A ball and didn’t dominate.

Even by BA’s own standards and scale, L.J. Hoes should rate above Delmonico and Rodriguez. If you think that Hoes’ ceiling is at least equal to Delmonico’s and Rodriguez’ – if you think that Hoes could become at least a second-division regular – it’s no contest. L.J. Hoes is the Orioles’ number-4 prospect.