A Closer Look At Welington Castillo's Pitch Framing

Welington Castillo is not a good pitch framer. Ryan wrote an article last week discussing how Castillo’s pitch farming has cost his team about ten runs per season. Jeff Sullivan argued that Castillo isn’t the Orioles’ best catcher due to his poor pitch framing ability. Nick Cicere wrote an interesting article for Camden Chat with some video examples showing how Castillo struggles with framing. But just because Castillo struggles with framing, does that mean he struggles evenly regardless of where a pitch is thrown? He may be bad overall, but perhaps there are certain areas where his ability to frame is acceptable.

Using ESPNs Stats and Information Trumedia Portal, I took a closer look at his pitch framing results. The TruMedia portal is relatively high on Castillo’s 2016 pitch framing results, ranking him 52th out of 76 qualified catchers and rating his framing ability at only 2.70 runs below average. StatCorner reports similar results and claims he was worth -3.2 runs. Baseball Prospectus has better algorithms to measure pitch framing ability, and ranks his framing ability considerably lower. This could mean that this dataset has a fatal flaw. Unfortunately, without access to BPs proprietary methodology, this dataset is the best available to me.

The ESPN portal is unimpressed by Castillo’s framing ability against pitches thrown up in the zone. Out of 76 qualified pitchers in 2016, Castillo is ranked 75th against pitches thrown in the top third of the zone and has a framing value of -9.13. In 2015, Castillo was ranked 63rd out 67 qualified catchers with a framing value of -6.24. In 2014, Castillo was ranked 75th out of 76 qualified catchers with a framing value of -10.06. From 2014-2016, Castillo ranks as the worst catcher out of 103 qualified catchers with a -25.43 framing value. Not only this, but he’s the worst catcher regardless of whether a pitch is thrown inside or outside. It’s safe to say that this dataset indicates that Castillo is pretty terrible when it comes to framing pitches up in the zone.

He’s not much better relatively speaking when it comes to the middle of the zone. This data portal ranks his defense from 2014-2016 as yet again the worst out of all 103 qualified catchers with a -11.75 framing value. Yet again, it makes little difference whether pitchers throw the ball inside or outside. His best year in the three year sample was in 2016, when he ranked 73rd out of 76 qualified catchers. Let me reiterate that this data portal ranks Castillo’s defense most favorably. It’s safe to say that this dataset thinks little of Castillo’s ability to frame pitches in the middle of the zone.

Castillo excels when it comes to framing pitches in the bottom of the zone. From 2014-2016, his framing ability is ranked 28th out of 103 with a 6.32 value. He has pretty poor results framing pitches in the inside part of the zone, ranking only 70th out of 103 with a -1.33 value. However, he ranks 27th out of 103 framing pitches low and away with a 3.03 pitch framing value and ranks 13th out of 103 framing pitches that are just low but in the middle of the plate with a 4.63 pitch framing value.

In addition, Castillo has shown improvement at framing pitches low in the zone each year. He ranked 12th out of 76 in 2016 (+9 runs), 29th out of 67 in 2015 (+2.1 runs) and 61st out of 76th in 2014 (-5 runs). This possibly indicates that Castillo is able to improve in this regard. Castillo told Don Connolly that he’ll be going to Puerto Rico in order to work on his receiving and pitch framing abilities. He also stated that he knows he needs to work on it. If Castillo can continue his improvement in this regard, it’s possible he won’t be the worst catcher framing pitches up in the zone.

Jon reported on Sunday that Castillo will be Jimenez and Miley’s catcher as well as possibly Gallardo’s. Unfortunately, Jimenez is typically more successful when throwing pitches up in the zone rather than below. From 2014-2016, batters have a .310 wOBA when putting pitches thrown up in the zone into play, and a .346 wOBA when putting pitches thrown low in the zone into play.

When batters don’t put the ball into play, Jimenez has some pretty ugly number whether he throws a pitch up in the zone or low in the zone. But he is able to generate considerably more foul balls, throwing a pitch up in the zone rather than down in the zone. He has a 42% chance of getting a strike or a foul on pitches thrown up in the zone, but only a 37.8% chance when throwing down in the zone. If he decides to target the bottom of the zone in response to having Castillo as his catcher, fans will be more likely to want to throw up when watching him pitch.

However, Miley has better results when throwing down in the zone than throwing up in the zone. Opposing batters have a .375 wOBA when putting pitches thrown down in the zone into play compared to a .420 wOBA when putting pitchers thrown up in the zone into play. That stated, while he has a better swinging strike rate throwing down in the zone, he has a lower called ball rate, and higher called strike rate and foul rate throwing up in the zone. Honestly, having a catcher that can do a good job framing pitches is the least of his worries.

Castillo is terrible at framing pitches up in the zone as well as in the middle of the zone, but can do an acceptable job framing pitches low in the zone. This is ideal for a reliever like Zach Britton. However, it’s unlikely that this skillset will help improve Jimenez or Miley’s performance. The right team could probably work around Castillo’s inability to frame pitches, but that team probably isn’t the Orioles.

MLB Winter Meetings: The Best (Worst) Place to Get a Job in Baseball

Terrible photos in this piece provided by the author

The Major League Baseball Winter Meetings is for many fans the most exciting part of the offseason. While the majority of Orioles fans may argue that the most exciting time of the offseason for them is mid to late February, the winter meetings cannot be beat in the sheer volume of news. Free agents sign, trades get made, players most people have never heard of get taken in the Rule 5 draft (probably by the Orioles), and there are more rumors than anyone can keep track of (from both REAL reporters and FAKE reporters). It sounds incredibly exciting, and since the 2016 winter meetings was basically located in my backyard at National Harbor, I absolutely had to go check it out.

Unfortunately, work responsibilities limited my time at the winter meetings to a couple of hours on Day 3. With no credentials in hand, I walked into the lobby and tried to act like I fit in, which was pretty easy, even when one considers that half the people there carried some sort of credential (PRESS/VENDOR/JOB SEEKER/etc). Other than the few who were wearing “Washington DC” themed souvenir shirts, I just assumed that everyone else not wearing a credential was either there for curiosity (same as me) or for baseball related reasons.

High Heat Live! (if you're into that sort of thing)

If you look at the agenda on the MiLB Winter Meetings website, there appears to be a lot to do while there, including several workshops, a job fair, and a trade show. They all sound interesting, and they all cost money (i.e. I didn’t go). For the curious observer such as myself, there really isn’t too much to do. MLB Network was filming “Hot Stove” and “High Heat”, the former of which I may have made my TV debut when I walked behind the set. Aside from a couple of national baseball writers (Rosenthal, Heyman, and Sherman), there weren’t even that many people a casual baseball fan would recognize. However, if you like talking to people, and you like talking to people about baseball, I can see how it would be easy to kill an entire day chatting to a variety of people about baseball, likely talking to a couple who work in a front office. I had little time to spend at the winter meetings, so while did chat with a scout (for the record, he had no idea what the Orioles were thinking) and a couple of current/former Baseball Prospectus writers, I was mainly there to chat with potential job seekers.


Fortunately for me, the majority of job seekers were literally wearing a badge that said “JOB SEEKER”. The winter meetings had always seemed to me like a necessary evil for job seekers. While it would be difficult to think of a better place to find such a high concentration of baseball people in a position to hire, a potential job seeker also has to deal with a large pool of other individuals who are at the winter meetings looking to accomplish the same thing. I wanted to see how their experience had been. To me, the idea of spending days competing with MANY other people for very few jobs, almost all of which demand long hours and little pay seems formidable, although it’s definitely possible, as I’ll get to in a minute.

Walking around and looking at the faces of the potential job seekers hanging out in the lower section of the lobby, there seemed to be a general sense of exhaustion and a little hint of despair. Maybe it was they were overwhelmed, maybe they were tired from 3 straight days of this, or maybe it was a little of both. I was in no place to offer anything to these people other than a couple guest posts at Camden Depot, so I felt fortunate that I was able to find several individuals willing to talk with me. None of the job seekers I spoke to had locked down a job yet, but all seemed to be in good spirits, expressing that their trips had so far been productive (in fact, one person had to cut the questions short when he received a call he had been expecting). That’s a good thing, as some of these people travelled a good distance to get here and make the most of their opportunity. The longest travelled was a guy from California, while another job seeker drove with a buddy of his (also looking for a job in baseball) all the way from Peoria, IL (a 12 hour ride). All were ideally looking for a job in the major leagues, but also realized that they may need to take a position in the minors first (or in some cases, again). Surprisingly (to me anyway), only three of the five people I talked to were looking for a job specifically in a major league baseball operations department (the other two were looking for marketing and facility management positions).

Every single person I talked to was able to set up some meetings while at the meetings, but according to winter meeting job seeking veterans, it pays to have at least one, if not several meetings set up before you arrive, especially if you’re after one of those coveted baseball operations department positions. And while the event had a job fair, the general consensus also seemed to think that the job fair was really useful place to visit, especially if you were looking for a minor league position, but had little or limited benefits for those looking for major league positions. So while it seemed like a trip to the job fair was worth checking out, it is definitely better to spend most of your time setting up as many direct meetings as you can.

The importance of already having established contacts and actually knowing someone appeared crucial for a successful trip, and something that seems obvious if you think the process through. If you were in a position to give someone a job, wouldn’t you be more willing to talk/interview someone you already know rather than a random person that just ran you down in a hotel lobby? Several of the people I had talked to had meetings set up prior to arriving, and as a result they seemed slightly more confident in their job prospects. Like anything, it’s better to be prepared, though that level of preparedness appears to make the whole process more daunting.

The purpose of this article though is not to discourage, but to give a glimpse into the winter meetings experience and hopefully show that this route can be successful. For example, former Camden Depot writer Stuart Wallace took a trip the 2013 winter meetings in Orlando (a 900 mile journey for him at the time), which helped him land a job with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a quantitative analyst in the baseball operations department. Although I did not get to meet up with him during my brief time at this year’s meetings, Stu was nice enough to answer some of my questions via email and provide some advice to those who are looking to take the same path he did.

Stu (whose background is as a neuroscientist, with additional training in biostatistics) only took the trip to the winter meetings once, but he made sure to mention that he supplemented that with trips to other events such as Saberseminar and SABR Analytics to network. He had one interview set up prior to his winter meetings arrival, but cold called other teams while he was there. With so many people in one place looking for the same thing, the key is setting yourself apart from the rest of the applicants. In Stu’s case, he was fortunate to receive advice from a team while applying for an analyst position with them.

"I followed [the advice] to a ‘T’. For me, that meant writing, so I started my own blog and got more active on social media, which led to bigger writing outlets taking a chance on me (thanks, Camden Depot!). I went to as many games as I could (MLB, MiLB, amateur) to get an idea of how to compare/contrast and get a feel for how to evaluate. I talked to scouts (when the opportunity presented itself!) and chatted about how they watched the game. I taught myself R and SQL -- I had some experience with these types of stats/database packages (using different ones for grad school and my job), but felt if I could know these cold, that would help get my foot in the door, since teams have familiarity with these two more so than what I had previously used. From there, I specialized with my writing; my background was in medical research, so I did my best to answer questions regarding injuries or general outlook on performance/pitching mechanics/swing paths with a given injury."

It’s obvious that Stu (successfully) went to a lot of effort to make himself as marketable to a big league club as he obviously could, and in answering that question, also provides some examples other potential job seekers can do to put themselves in a better position to get a job. In the end however, baseball (like many like many businesses) remains an industry based on establishing and keeping relationships. Yes, the analytic/programming/scouting/marketing/facility management skills are required (depending on what your interests are), but more importantly, as Stu recommends, you need to find your niche and get your name out there. As Stu notes when providing his advice to potential job seekers:

“Be passionate about the game, because if you're not, the hours will eat you alive. Have a portfolio of baseball-specific work, be it your own scouting reports, code for your self-made projection system, whatever it is, have something tangible and know it backwards and forwards. Have a specialty or a feel for one -- if you're an Econ major and love that side of things, understand the CBA or how arbitration works. If you're a medical person, write about particular conditions/injuries and apply it to on-field performance. Understand why you will be an asset to a team. Having a firm base in evaluation is helpful, as is having some knowledge of the minor leagues for a given team. Know where the full season teams play so you can speak thoughtfully on some of their Top 10-20 guys and how their level/park can affect their numbers. And last but not least -- NETWORK. Make friends, share notes, share email addresses, share info about what team has an opening where. Get on Linkedin, reach out to people who share the same interests as you and definitely be a part of Baseball Industry Network.”

So to all the job seekers hoping that a trip to the winter meetings will put them on the path to their dream job, don’t get discouraged if you left without an offer. But don’t expect that a productive trip to the winter meetings alone will put you in a good position to get one. Going after your dream job takes a lot of time and effort no matter what industry you aspire to work in. And if that dream job is in baseball, it takes even more time and effort to make it a full time gig. Hopefully some (or even one) of those job seekers see this and so they can put Stu’s advice to good use. So good luck to the people I had the pleasure of speaking to at the winter meetings and to all the other job seekers out there. If I somehow am fortunate enough to speak with any of you again, I hope that by that time you have since become another winter meetings success story.

Thank you to Stuart Wallace and the job seekers at the winter meetings for taking some time out of their schedule to talk to me for this article.

Should The Orioles Trade Brad Brach For Curtis Granderson?

The Orioles were the source of some rumors earlier this week as it was reported that they discussed a trading Brach to the Mets for Granderson. According to the rumors, this deal ultimately fell through when the Mets insisted on the Orioles covering Granderson’s entire salary, while the Orioles wanted the Mets to pitch in some cash to help make up for the large difference in salaries.

The Mets have a surplus of outfielders after resigning Cespedes, but could use bullpen help. The Orioles have a strong bullpen with Britton, Brach, Givens and O’Day but desperately need outfield help. This trade would seem to have the potential to be win-win for both clubs. Should the Orioles have considered making such a move?

Brad Brach had a strong year in 2016 if you look at his basic statistics. He had a 2.05 ERA, a 2.92 FIP, an All Star appearance, a 29.6% K% to go with an 8% walk rate and was worth 1.6 WAR according to Fangraphs. After O’Day went down with an injury, Brach thrived as a set-up man. These numbers seem to suggest that Brach could be used as a potential closer and therefore it makes sense why the Mets like him so much. On the other hand, I noted in July that Brach was the recipient of some good fortune in the first half of 2016 and was proven right when he had a 3.96 ERA from July 25th (the date of the above article) until the end of the season. Brach had some good fortune with men on base that helped lower his ERA.  I’m of the opinion that Brach had a career year in 2016 and that it would make sense to trade him while his value is at its high point. As such, I’d recommend trading him for the right return.

But is Granderson the right return? At this point in his career, Granderson is acceptable defensively in an outfield corner and provides an acceptable ability to get on base with a good amount of power. In each of the past three years with the Mets, Granderson has been above average offensively and was well above average in 2015 when he put together a .259/.364/.457 line. He’s better against right-handed pitching than left-handed, but is proficient enough to make a platoon unnecessary. Certainly, he would help the Orioles.

The problem is that Granderson is earning $15M in 2017 while Brach is projected to earn $2.9M (and I think that’s a bit high). At a cost of $15M, Granderson is being paid market rate, but Brach is earning decisively less then what he’d receive as a free agent. It makes sense if the Orioles would want the Mets to eat either 4 or 5 million in salary or throw in a prospect in order to make a deal. In addition, the Orioles already have a high payroll and may not be able to afford to add Granderson’s contract.  The Orioles can only afford to spend so much cash.

The answer to this problem may be to expand the deal. The Mets have a lot of starting pitching depth, but their rotation is considered fragile. It was thought that the Mets had interest in resigning Colon, but he became a Brave. The Mets are so worried about their pitching depth that they are discussing using a six-man rotation for part of 2017. If they’re not willing to eat some of Grandy’s contract, then would they be willing to take one of the Orioles’ expensive starters (Tillman, Jimenez, Gallardo or Miley)?

Of course, if the Orioles did add a piece to the trade, then the Mets would need to add a piece also. A decent prospect could perhaps get the deal done, but otherwise the Orioles should see if they can’t convince the Mets to include Gsellman in a trade.

Gsellman is a 13th round pick who came out of nowhere to have an extremely successful debut in 2016. Despite having a labrum injury (he had surgery this offseason) in his non-throwing shoulder that resulted in him never swinging the bat in the Majors, he put together a season where he had a 2.42 ERA in 7 starts and 8 appearances. Other teams have noticed his success. According to Adam Rubin, teams have asked about Gsellman and have been told that the Mets have no intention of trading him.

Gsellman benefited from a good amount of luck. In the 40+ innings he threw as a starter, he allowed only one home run. It’s possible that there’s some skill involved there, but it’s likely a function of small sample size. It’s also worth noting that he gave up 8 home runs this past season in 48.2 innings in AAA to go with a 5.73 ERA in Las Vegas. In addition, Gsellman had a 22.4% K-rate and a 3.1% BB-rate with the bases empty but opposing batters had a .305 wOBA against him. With men on base, he had a 25.4% K-Rate and a 12.7% walk rate but opposing batters only had a .251 wOBA against him. Seems like he benefited from good sequencing.

On the other hand, opposing batters had a surprisingly high .348 BABIP against him. Going forward, I would expect opposing batters to hit more extra base hits but get fewer singles. In addition, while Gsellman is more dominant against left handed batters than right handed batters, he had an acceptable 18.9% K-rate against righties to go with a 6.7% walk rate. Against lefties, he had a dominant 29.1% K-rate.

Gsellman has some decent pitches. He has a fastball that he threw at 95 mph in the majors, even though he was throwing it at 88-92 mph earlier in the season. It wasn’t as effective as his velocity suggests, but it was certainly respectable. The question is whether he can maintain that speed for a full season and if so whether he could improve its placement. In addition, he has a Warthen Slider that has been effective against left and right handed batters. Left-handed batters missed 19.1% of the time while right-handed batters missed 16.7% of the time, so this is an acceptable out pitch. In addition, Gsellman has an acceptable curveball against left-handed batters. Gsellman just started throwing the slider this season, and it’s become his best pitch. If he can develop a third quality pitch, then he has the potential to be an above-average starter.

Going forward, I don’t think Gsellman is anywhere near as good as his previous performance indicates, but I do think he can be a back-of-the-rotation starter. The Orioles would do well if they could get the Mets to add him in a trade. The Mets have been unwilling to discuss trading him, so the Orioles would need to consider offering Tillman in a trade or adding prospects. This would be a risky decision, but probably would be a smart risk.

In any event, the Braves also reportedly asked for Brach on Wednesday. The Orioles asked for Mallex Smith and more in return and nothing happened. But it is worth noting that there’s been a lot of discussion about trading Brach. It is probably good news to learn that the Orioles are trying to sell high on Brach.

The Orioles are correct to look into trading Brach this offseason, even if Granderson by himself isn’t enough value to pull the trigger. If the Orioles can convince a team to value him as a potential closer, then it’s likely the Orioles will receive significant surplus in a trade.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 5): Be Bold, But Not Too Bold, Mr Fox.

The Orioles are an aging team. Their good players are rapidly becoming either free agents or expensive, while the farm has been unable to make significant contributions over the past few years. As a result, the Orioles are in a situation where they can only improve their team by increasing payroll, but are already spending over $140 million. Over the last week, Camden Depot writers have illustrated how the Orioles will have a difficult challenge merely trying to maintain the status quo, let alone improve. And yet, as Matt K wrote, the Orioles did win 89 games last year and earned a spot in the wild card game. All is not bleak.

With minimal remaining resources, the Orioles will need to decide whether they should stay the course or shake things up a little. I believe that the Orioles, with an aging team, need to be bold. Therefore, I'm creating two blueprints, one presuming a payroll around $150M and the other presuming a payroll around $160M.

As Patrick and Ryan noted, the Orioles have three main players becoming free agents this year: Mark Trumbo (RF), Matt Wieters (C), and Pedro Alvarez (DH). I believe that the Orioles should offer a qualifying offer solely to Mark Trumbo. Pedro Alvarez had a decent season for the Orioles, but I think everyone agrees he isn't worth $17 million a year and would happily accept a QO.

Matt Wieters is perhaps the hardest decision. With the inability of Caleb Joseph or Pena to contribute any offense, it's pretty clear that the Orioles wouldn't have made it to the playoffs without Wieters last year. Yet Wieters is only an average catcher at this point and the Orioles don't have the resources to afford to spend $17 million on an average player. Even with Wieters on the club, the Orioles' offensive production was 23th in the majors. BORAS thinks that Wieters will receive 2 and $20 million and therefore would happily accept a QO.

On the other hand, I think the Orioles should offer Trumbo a QO. Trumbo has just had a career year and would be better off signing a long-term deal to ensure that he maximizes his earnings. In addition, Trumbo brings a significant amount of offense to the table and can help the Orioles as a DH. BORAS projects Trumbo to receive 3 and $40M and I think that's a high enough amount to ensure that he declines the offer.

Next, the Orioles have to make a decision to tender a number of arbitration eligible players. I recommend non-tendering Ryan Flaherty and T.J McFarland. McFarland is an AAAA player worth only the minimum wage while Flaherty is nothing more than an extremely offensively-limited super sub. The Orioles should keep Britton, Worley, Machado, Schoop, Gausman and Joseph although non-tendering Worley may not be a bad idea. I would attempt to trade Chris Tillman and Brad Brach. The rules for this blueprint do allow for trades, but don't allow using any received players on the 25 man roster.

I think that both Tillman and Brach had lucky seasons in 2016, and are currently overvalued. While some teams may see the 2016 all-star as a potential closer candidate and certainly as a set-up man, I think that he's nothing more than a seventh-inning reliever and primarily a ROOGY unless he can find another pitch to use against lefties. A trade to a team that values him higher could possibly net a generous return in prospects far in excess of his value.

The decision to shop Tillman is more difficult. If one believes that an opposing team will trade for Jimenez, Miley or Gallardo and take on their entire salary, then trading Tillman may not make sense. Likewise, if one thinks that Bundy can't start for a whole year, then it may be impossible to trade Tillman. However, teams need to trade talent to get talent, and it is hard to get strong returns trading mediocre players. If like me, you think that Tillman is due for regression, then better to sell high.

The first player I’d sign is Jason Castro for 2 and $20 million. It seems reasonable to presume that the Orioles are going to have to rely on mediocre starting pitchers next year. If so, the best chance of ensuring their success is by adding catchers with good pitch framing skills. A Castro/Joseph platoon would be able to frame pitches for strikes, thus encouraging Jimenez, Gallardo and Miley to throw pitches near the strike zone and hope their catchers can get them a strike.

In addition, Jason Castro has strong platoon splits favoring using him against right handed pitching (.332 wOBA vs .240) while Caleb Joseph was best against left handed pitching in 2014 and 2015. This sets up a situation where Castro can catch 90-100 games against primarily right handed pitchers while Joseph can catch 50-60 games against primarily left-handed pitchers. This also gives the Orioles more time to assess Chance Sisco and see whether he’s a major league catcher.

The second player I’d recommend the Orioles’ sign is Desmond Jennings. Jennings was DFA’d by the Rays after having yet another injury-filled and largely ineffective season. He’s considered to have a significant amount of talent but was considered frustrating. Tampa Bay Times writer Mark Topkin asked why it took so long to release him. It’s questionable whether he can still play CF or if he needs to play in a corner. Clearly, there are some issues here. On the other hand, a good corner outfielder could cost the club $16 million a year. If the Orioles want to fill their weaknesses in the free agent market, they’ll need to take some chances.

For this exercise, I developed a metric that determined which hitters faced the best pitchers. I found that Jennings faced stronger pitching than the average hitter last year and this makes his offensive numbers look worse than they actually were. Jennings historically also has strong numbers against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching and could be used in a platoon with Hyun Soo Kim in a corner outfield position. A platoon role may keep Jennings fresh, healthy and productive. Jennings is a player that could possibly benefit from a change of scenery. His talent isn't in question, so a team that signs him may be rewarded.

BORAS thinks that Jennings will receive 2 yrs and $19.1 million in free agency. However, it’s clear that BORAS isn't aware of his off-field issues. If any team felt that Jennings was worth that much, they simply could have claimed him from the Rays and taken advantage of the fact that they’d still have one more year of control that would cost at most $4 million. The fact that no one picked him suggests that his value is easily below $5M in the free market. I think $3.5 million should be enough to sign Jennings and he’d be my key to the off-season.

The next player I’d sign is Michael Bourn. Bourn is ideally a fourth outfielder even if he had a good stretch with the Orioles in September. Unfortunately, the Orioles desperately need an outfielder and don’t have the cash to sign one of the top ones like Desmond, Bautista, Reddick or Cespedes. Bourn can contribute good defense in right field and also faced tougher pitching than the average hitter in 2016.

BORAS projects Bourn to receive a minor league contract with significant incentives. I think that a one year offer for $2.5 million should be enough to get him signed. The hope is that given 600 PAs, he can be a 1 win player or so.

The final main player that I’d sign is Steve Pearce for 2 yrs and $15 million to play DH. Pearce is a professional hitter with significant versatility and is a Buck favorite. BORAS felt that Pearce would receive 3 and $40 million but is unaware of the fact that Pearce suffered a season-ending injury last season. Rounding out the team is Rickard and Janish on the bench and Hart, Wright and a Rule V pick in the bullpen.

All told, this team should cost $153.5 million. For this analysis, I count Chris Davis as earning $17 million in 2017 and disregard his deferred cash. I also do the same for O’Day but not for Jimenez or Hardy. In addition, I presume that Bundy will get a pay cut this year (just like Guthrie) and will earn only $1.5 million. In theory, this gives me a few million dollars to spend on signing minor league players, but I also think that the Orioles are unlikely to spend $160 million this season. The starting rotation would take a hit due to the loss of Chris Tillman and the bullpen would struggle to replace Brach, but the offense would be about the same due to some of the new additions and the defense would be much improved. For 2018, the Orioles would be at roughly $114 million in payroll and would have the flexibility to rebuild their rotation after Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo become free agents.

But what if the Orioles really are willing to break $160 million and maybe even go close to $165M? In that case, I’d do the same thing with offering qualifying offers. I’d still try and trade Brach and Tillman while non-tendering McFarland, Flaherty and Worley. I’d still add Jason Castro at Catcher. To fill left field, I’d offer Jennings and Bourn $2.5 million. The first player to accept the offer gets the role and the second can go elsewhere. For DH, I’d use a platoon of Kim and Mancini. This gives Mancini a chance to get himself acclimated to life in the major leagues without requiring a huge role.

With the remaining cash, I’d offer 5 years and $115 million (salary increases by $1M each year) to sign Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has been an elite bat for the Mets the past year and a half and faced harder pitching than the average hitter. Cespedes is better against left handed pitchers than right handed pitchers and therefore could be paired up well with Chris Davis. BORAS thinks that Cespedes will only receive 4 yrs and $70 million in the free agent market. I disagree. I think that Cespedes will benefit from being the best player in a weak market. Jon Heyman has said that teams will offer him four years at close to hundred million.

This would be a bold move because it would mean that the Orioles would have promised significant money to two players that will be past their prime in three years. It would almost certainly make it harder for the Orioles to build around Machado in the future. But on the other hand, adding Cespedes would give the Orioles another elite bat. There would be no question that the Orioles offense wouldn’t be improved from last year, especially with a healthy Chris Davis. And if the Orioles could find another decent starter off the scrap heap, then they’d be tough to beat in the playoffs.

By my calculations, this club would cost $161 million and would have roughly $30 million next year to find a new third baseman, a DH, and three starting pitchers. This would certainly be a challenge and would likely force the Orioles to use Wilson and Mancini as regulars in 2018 regardless of their performance.

The Orioles have been a successful club over the past five years and may think that they only need a few minor changes to make it to the playoffs in 2017. But if they feel that they need to get bold and mix things up, then these plans would certainly do that for them. And the pieces they get in these deals might just be enough to take them to the Promised Land.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 3): Let's Get Versatile

Since this is the third installment of Camden Depot’s 2017 Orioles blueprint series, you should know the drill by now. Construct the 2017 roster while staying within an assumed budget of $160 million without trading anyone. Here we go…

Non-Tendered Players

As in years past, the Orioles have a number of arbitration eligible players. I’m going to keep all of them except for T.J. McFarland and Vance Worley, as I think similar contributions can be found for less money. I would preferably non-tender Ryan Flaherty as well, and try to resign him for less than the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projection ($1.7 million), but unless you can talk yourself into a Ruben Tejada type player instead, there isn’t much else out there in terms of a cheap bench bat that can play shortstop, among other positions.

Qualifying Offers

I’m giving one to Mark Trumbo because I think there is a really good chance that he declines. In the event that he accepts the offer, it would be worthwhile coming up with a Plan B, as that $17 million (or there about) would suck up basically all of my budget. For now let’s assume that he declines, since that currently seems to be the perception. With a strict 2017 budget of $160 million, there is no way I’m offering another qualifying offer to Matt Wieters, as I think there is a good chance that he accepts, even with the Wilson Ramos injury. Either way, I can’t take the chance of both accepting the qualifying offer, so I’m only handing out one, and it’s going to Trumbo.

2017 Roster

So here is what we are left with in 2017 and the holes that we need to fill. All salaries are either obtained from Cot’s Contracts, the arbitration projections from MLB Trade Rumors, or salary projections using the Camden Depot BORAS model. I assumed that the major league minimum will be $520,000 (this will ultimately be decided when the new CBA is completed) and that Dylan Bundy gets a slight raise from $1.8 million (his 2016 salary) to $2.0 million.

Looking at the figure, I have to fill vacancies at catcher and right field, along with 2 bench spots, and 2 bullpen spots with approximately $14.96 million. This is where you say, “good luck”. Thanks.

Infield

First and foremost, if Manny Machado is open to a contract extension that is structured in a way that frees up a little bit of budget space in 2017, I’m trying to get that done immediately. For this exercise, I’m assuming he’s not. Catcher is the only open position. Caleb Joseph stays on, but great defense aside, I’m not sure his bat justifies a starting position for him. Furthermore, I’m not sure he can physically handle the catching position on a full time basis. To help with the catching duties, I’m looking to stay internal with Francisco Pena. Pena hasn’t been terribly impressive in his limited time in the majors, but he has a reputation of being a decent defender and has shown power in AAA in the past (40 home runs in 744 PA’s between 2014 and 2015 in the Royals system). I don’t even feel good about this decision, but the options on the free agent market aren’t great, and there are limited funds. There isn’t really a starter in this scenario, more of a 50/50 timeshare.

If you want to be extremely optimistic, Chance Sisco comes up halfway through the season and takes over the catching position. I wouldn’t bet on that though. Signing a veteran to a minor league deal (think Ryan Hanigan or Drew Butera) for insurance would be a prudent move.

Remaining Funds: 14.44 million

Outfield

Adam Jones returns to man centerfield and Hyun-soo Kim performed well enough to earn the full-time left field job. And by full-time, I mean no platoon. Right field is where we need to fill a spot. I’m in more of the Joey Rickard 4th or 5th outfielder camp than even platoon starter and Dariel Alvarez may not even be a bench bat. So we'll need to sign someone to play right field.

Originally, I was in favor of Jay Bruce to fill right field, but following yesterday’s post and the discussion regarding the Mets picking up Bruce’s option, he probably won’t be available. In light of that, I’m suggesting signing Jon Jay instead, who BORAS projects can be acquired for a 2 year deal worth $19.7 million ($9.85 annually). It may eat up a lot of our remaining budget, but Jay is essentially your league average hitter (career 106 wRC+) and fielder (career -1 Defensive Run Saved), can play all 3 outfield positions adequately, and will also fill an outfield position in 2018, which at the moment consists of Adam Jones and that’s it. I also like the addition of Jay to the Orioles lineup as someone who consistently puts the ball in play.

Remaining Funds: $4.59 million

Pitching Staff

It would be nice to improve the starting pitching, but aside from the fact that the Orioles already have 6 starters for 5 spots, there isn’t a guaranteed improvement on the free agent market. Plus, because of various flaws among them, I’m keeping all 6 starters because one of the 5 listed in the figure above WILL inevitably succumb to injury or ineffectiveness. In fact, with this group, I’d ideally want to bring in a few more options, but with this budget, it’s not happening.

So I’m starting Bundy in the bullpen for the beginning of the season for health reasons, and he’s the first cavalry (sorry) member called when someone disappoints. I’m filling the other two bullpen openings with internal options with any combination of Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Oliver Drake, Parker Bridwell, Donnie Hart, etc. Wright, Wilson, and Bridwell could potentially be spot-starters as well if more than one of the starters needs to be relieved of their duties.

Remaining Funds: $3.55 million

Bench

So far, the bench consists of Caleb Joseph or Francisco Pena, Ryan Flaherty, and Joey Rickard, meaning we have 2 spots to fill. I only have $3.55 million left, so one (or both) will need to be filled by a player making the minimum. One of those players would be either Trey Mancini or Christian Walker, and while I would prefer Mancini to get a little more time in AAA, I wouldn’t be opposed to putting him on the opening day roster.

With $3.03 million left, I am going to sign Chris Coghlan to be a poor man’s Ben Zobrist and play all over the field. Coghlan’s 2016 season wasn’t good at all (66 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR), so he potentially could be had cheap. However, he was worth 5.7 fWAR in just over 900 PA’s in 2014 and 2015 combined, so he isn’t too far removed from success either, which makes coming up with a salary for him potentially challenging. Signing Coghlan to a somewhat realistic contract while staying under budget requires me to take some creative license, so I’ll sign him to a 1-year deal for $3 million (how convenient!), with a $7 million option that vests at 300 PA’s, or something else that is easily attainable (I did not ask Jon to run a BORAS projection for him since I’m finishing this up late the night before).

The acquisition of Coghlan allows the Orioles to use the DH spot as a rotational position to rest guys or play match ups (or both), which is in stark contrast to the 2016 team that featured both Mark Trumbo (miscast in the outfield) and Pedro Alvarez on the roster. With many of the Orioles core position players getting older (Jones, Davis, Hardy), having that additional flexibility to rest guys or rotate them through the DH spot becomes more important.

Conclusion

Here’s the final tally:

• OF Jon Jay - 2 years, $19.7 million
• UTIL Chris Coghlan – 1 year, $3 million (vesting $7 million option if 300 PA’s reached)

This was a tough exercise, much more difficult than last year in my opinion. I went through many different possibilities (including releasing Gallardo to save $520,000) and for now I think this is the best option. However, I may very well wake up tomorrow not even liking my own suggestions anymore. On the plus side, much of the team that returns is the same one that won 89 games in 2016. If you don’t have a lot of money to spend, that’s a pretty good starting point.

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Postscript: If trades were an option, I’d be heavily shopping Zach Britton, along with Brad Brach, Christian Walker, and Trey Mancini to try and restock the farm system and potentially add to the major league roster. Cost savings from Britton’s (and potentially Brach’s) salary would likely go to the catcher position or a better option in RF (like Josh Reddick), along with potentially an additional pitcher(s) who could start or relieve like a Travis Wood or Jesse Chavez.

Blueprint For The 2017 Orioles (Option 1): An Expanded Role For Hyun Soo Kim

This is the second post in a series by Camden Depot staff writers exploring what the Orioles should do this offseason to get back to the playoffs in 2017. It should be noted that this exercise does not include trades, though it's unlikely the O's make a major move in that regard. These posts focus on roster construction and free agent decisions. Enjoy!

The one good thing about this offseason for the Orioles is that they don't have a bunch of decisions to make if they don't want to. The 2016 Orioles won 89 games and earned a spot in the American League wild card game, so, for the most part, they can run things back next season. The most crucial question is what to do about impending free agents Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo. Both are good players, but neither is a superstar. And if both were to walk, the Orioles still have a talented core.

While the O's may not have a bunch of decisions to make, there doesn't appear to be much flexibility in terms of payroll. This past season, the Orioles had a payroll of about $147 million. Before arbitration in 2017, the Orioles have around $95 million to eight players tied up in salary. But factoring in arbitration is when things get dicey.

Arbitration Raises

The Orioles' arbitration-eligible players are estimated to earn about $50 million. The big three of those arbitration players includes Manny Machado, Zach Britton, and Chris Tillman, who could all receive about $11 million apiece. (See MLB Trade Rumors' full list of arbitration salary projections for next season.)

Machado, Britton, and Tillman are no-brainers. They're good players (phenomenal in the cases of Machado and Britton), and you pay them what they're worth. The same goes for Jonathan Schoop, Brad Brach, and Kevin Gausman.

But what about Ryan Flaherty ($1.7M), Vance Worley ($3.3M), T.J. McFarland ($700K), and Caleb Joseph ($1M)? Joseph isn't going anywhere, and he shouldn't. There's no way the Orioles opt to move on from Wieters and Joseph in the same offseason. McFarland is due to make even less than Joseph, but the need for him is not as crucial. Plus, like Flaherty, he's now out of options.

Out of the four questions marks, I'd non-tender Worley and McFarland. McFarland isn't all that good, has struggled to stay healthy, and doesn't fill a position of serious need. The Orioles very well may carry all six starting pitchers -- Tillman, Gausman, Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez, Dylan Bundy, and Yovani Gallardo -- next season, meaning that's one bullpen spot already filled by a swingman type. Plus, the Orioles also have Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and Parker Bridwell (among others) who could duke it out for another mop-up, long reliever slot.

If the O's somehow dump one of Jimenez or Gallardo, then it might be worth keeping Worley around. But there are only so many OK pitchers you can keep who don't have options, and there are only so many spots in the bullpen. And I really, really don't want the Orioles to tender him a contract and then ship him off with a competitive balance pick in the spring just to get rid of his moderate salary. That's a poor use of resources, and it should stop happening.

As for Flaherty, the Orioles don't seem to have someone else in their organization capable of a utility player role. Perhaps the O's could bring back Paul Janish and save a little money (maybe around $1 million). I wouldn't be against that, but again, we aren't talking about much. It is nice, too, to have a reliable and versatile glove around. That also describes Janish.

After accounting for players under contract and arbitration raises, the Orioles are already at about $140 million. Now the fun starts, because it's qualifying offer time.

Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo

Let's just get right to it: Should the Orioles extend both Wieters and Trumbo qualifying offers (which will be $17.2 million next season)? That would be a calculated risk to acquire two extra draft picks, but it might also be something the Orioles simply will not do.

One-year deals are low-risk maneuvers, but potentially tying up more than $34 million next season in those two players would almost certainly lead to the O's doing very little else with the roster. But here's the thing: The Orioles might be cash-strapped anyway, which would be an argument for offering both. If both players were to somehow accept the qualifying offer, that would bump the team payroll to nearly $175 million while still needing at least one or two players to fill out the rest of the roster.

Despite the risk, I'd still offer both. Wilson Ramos's torn ACL catapulted Wieters to the top of the free agent catchers list, and it wouldn't be hard to see a team in search of a moderate upgrade at catcher offering Wieters a deal of at least three years. Wieters isn't great by any means, but he'd be a good enough addition for a handful of teams. If he's willing to sacrifice that money to stick around another year in Baltimore, then so be it. It's not ideal to offer him $17 million for one season. It wasn't ideal to have him back for $15.8 million in 2016. But yet another year gets you one step closer to figuring out if Joseph's awful season was a blip on the radar, and also to Chance Sisco's eventual promotion (whether he sticks at catcher or not).

As for Trumbo, the O's still need his bat. The problem is, unless you tether him to the DH spot or play him at first base (both unlikely), you can't get his bat without his outfield glove. He also seems to hit a bit better when he's actually playing in the field.

Like Wieters, Trumbo should be in the market for a lucrative multiyear deal, so it would be tough to imagine him forgoing that money just because he liked the Orioles' clubhouse and winning culture. Still, it's possible. The qualifying offer is now large enough for players to consider taking it, which was demonstrated last year when Wieters, Colby Rasmus, and Brett Anderson became the first players to accept it.

Both would probably reject it, so you'd have to plan for otherwise. But if the Orioles could manage around it, that large of a payroll would be a one-year thing. Look at the list of free agents the O's could have after the 2017 season (other than Wieters and Trumbo): Ubaldo Jimenez, J.J. Hardy ($2M buyout), Yovani Gallardo ($2M buyout), Chris Tillman, Wade Miley ($500K buyout), and Hyun Soo Kim. Sure, there will be another round of arbitration raises and several roster holes to fill, but that would be even more money coming off the books.

So the first option would be to offer both players and see what happens. Running things back with the same cast of characters might not be ideal, but there are much worse things.

And then the next, more likely option is that Trumbo and Wieters, or at least one of the two, declines the qualifying offer. Not only does that net you an extra draft pick or two, but it frees up money to improve the roster in other ways.

Free Agents

The Orioles' (opening day) payroll will almost certainly surpass $150 million this year, but what you think the team will do in free agency depends on how much higher you think it'll go. Could it approach $160 million? Anything much higher than that seems out of the question.

Let's say $160 million is the max. Perhaps that's unrealistic considering the Orioles went from a team payroll of $108 million in 2014 to $119 million in 2015 to $147 million in 2016. That 2015-2016 jump was quite large, but let's stick with the increasing pattern. Without Trumbo/Wieters, the O's would be at about $140 million. That leaves about $20 million for an outfielder or two, a 1B/DH type, and a second catcher.

Outfielders

The returning group of outfielders includes Adam Jones, Kim, and Joey Rickard. I would not bring back Nolan Reimold or Drew Stubbs. I also would not bring back Steve Pearce, at least with any kind of expectation for him to play the outfield regularly. The Orioles are well aware of Pearce's limitations, and the last thing they would need is for him to get injured again playing the outfield.

In center field, there's Jones. He'll be there for the next couple of years as long as he's healthy. The O's do view Rickard as a viable backup center fielder, so it's not a requirement that whomever they sign has those defensive skills. But it wouldn't hurt.

In left field, there's Kim. If you read this site often or follow me on Twitter (sorry), you know I've questioned (relentlessly, you might say) why Kim wasn't playing more often. He led the team in on-base percentage by a wide margin, was one of the team's only options to diversify a power-heavy lineup, and isn't necessarily just a platoon bat (as argued by Jon last week). Perhaps defensive limitations led to him not playing more. According to Defensive Runs Saved data, he was a -13 defender. For reference, Trumbo was -11, Jones was -10, and Rickard was -8. You know Trumbo is a bad outfielder, and also that the advanced metrics are not always kind to Jones. For Kim and Rickard, that's only one season's worth of data (and not a full season for either). Kim has a bad arm, but I have a hard time seeing him as that terrible in the field. The same goes for Rickard.

Regardless, Kim showed that his hit tool plays in the major leagues. The O's need to take advantage of having him under contract for one more season and deploy him more often. His on-base skills are a must at the top of the lineup -- I'd bat Kim first and Machado second -- and it's worth giving him extended at-bats to see if he can tread water against left-handed pitching. Batting him leadoff against right-handed pitching but ninth against left-handers would not be unreasonable. It's not a perfect option, but even sticking him in the lineup at DH wouldn't be terrible.

With Kim in left and Jones in center, that means Rickard needs a platoon partner in right field. A full-time right fielder would be wonderful, but with only about $20 million to spend, that doesn't seem likely. There are some enticing names for sure -- Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick -- but they are too expensive (plus, there's little to no chance Fowler ever dons an Orioles uniform after last offseason's drama).

So here are a few left-handed bats that could make sense, with their BORAS projections in parentheses:

Michael Saunders (two years, $20M)
Colby Rasmus (two years, $23M)
Brandon Moss (one year, $9.5M)
Matt Joyce (one year, $9M)
Jon Jay (two years, $20M)
Jay Bruce (one year, $7M)
Michael Bourn (minors deal, up to $6.5M in incentives)

Out of those options, my first choice would be Moss (though Jay is intriguing as a more versatile defensive outfielder and Bruce is pretty cheap). Moss is a decent enough outfielder (and able to play first base as well) who can hit. I don't want any part of Saunders or Joyce as regular outfielders, and Rasmus on any kind of multiyear deal is kind of scary. It also seems that if the O's were truly sold on him before, they would have brought him on board a couple years ago. Still, Moss will probably command a multiyear offer of some kind, and a fit doesn't seem all that likely.

I'm not a huge proponent of Michael Bourn, but it's easy to see how he would again fit on this team. He demonstrated that in limited time after the team acquired him on August 31. I'm not sure he'll get a minor league deal, but he shouldn't cost much. And it's hard not to like the speed and decent glove, even if his bat is a concern.

Thanks in part to a ridiculous .471 BABIP, Bourn actually hit better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching last season (122 wRC+ vs. 69). But career wise, he's better against right-handers (92 wRC+ vs. 76). Neither of those is great, but the main reason to sign Bourn isn't his bat. He'd serve as the second piece of an interesting (though surely not great) platoon with Rickard, and he'd also be a nice defensive and baserunning option late in games.

For the fifth outfielder/bench bat, I'd either sign someone to a minor league/minimum deal or give someone like Dariel Alvarez a shot. He doesn't seem like any kind of answer at the plate, but the glove seems adequate in corner outfield (and he has an outstanding arm). Barring injury, he wouldn't play much anyway.

Designated Hitter

Possible DH options:

Mike Napoli (1 year, $10M)
Adam Lind (1 year, $8M)
Pedro Alvarez (1 year, $8M)

I feel pretty strongly on this one: The Orioles need someone who can hit left-handed pitching after a disastrous year against southpaws.

Could that guy be Trey Mancini? It would be fantastic if that guy could be Trey Mancini. But I'd feel more confident in someone like Mike Napoli (career 142 wRC+ vs. LHP), or even Pearce (career 130 wRC+ vs. LHP). BORAS has Pearce at three years and $39 million, which seems far-fetched. After undergoing surgery on his right forearm, Pearce may indeed be in the market for another one-year deal.

Napoli turns 35 soon, so there's always the chance he could fall off the proverbial cliff. Not every DH ages like David Ortiz (thankfully). He'll also want a multiyear deal, but that doesn't seem all that likely for someone with his skill-set.

I like Pedro Alvarez, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him return. If/when Trumbo departs, the Orioles could definitely use another big bat, even if it's a left-handed one. I'd prefer Napoli, though.

Catcher

Jason Castro (2 years, $20M)
Kurt Suzuki (1 year, $8M)
Alex Avila (2 years, $20M)

You know what isn't much to work with in free agency? $20 million. I guess this is how the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A's feel every year. With Bourn and Napoli on board, the O's could have anywhere from $4 to $6 million (maybe) to spend. That's not a lot.

In terms of a catching duo, it would be nice to have a left-handed hitting catcher to pair with Joseph. Castro or Avila would present an interesting fit, but the money might not be there. If the O's went with Mancini as the regular DH over Napoli or Pearce, etc., then yes, it would be. Other than that, there aren't a whole lot of options.

Maybe the likeliest alternative is a reunion with one-time Oriole Nick Hundley. Hundley is an OK hitter for a catcher but not a well-regarded defender or pitch framer. He's also 33 and just completed a two-year, $6.25 million deal, so he shouldn't cost much. As the superior defensive option, Joseph should receive the majority of the playing time.

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Would you be happy with an offseason where the most notable additions are Mike Napoli, Michael Bourn, and Nick Hundley? No, probably not. But that's what can happen when you have a few players on hefty contracts and also a handful of good players going through arbitration. Money gets tight in a hurry.

Even still, having Napoli and Bourn around for an entire season should help the O's in two important areas: hitting left-handers and outfield defense. And getting creative with a pitching trade or two or choosing to give Mancini an extended look would free up some money to use, most likely for a better outfield option. The Orioles surely can't afford any of the expensive outfield options, but it would be a bonus to have a regular corner outfielder playing who is actually useful with the glove.

If the Orioles are going to again approach the 90-win mark and make a push for the playoffs, in all likelihood they'll need to rely on a hopefully improved starting rotation; better seasons from Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Caleb Joseph; and another dominant year from the bullpen. When you look at it that way, it's far from unreasonable.