2012 MLB Draft -- Day 2 Review and Shadow Picks

So, Baltimore had an interesting second draft day, though they went about things slightly differently than did Camden Depot in our Shadow Draft. Baltimore stayed fairly balanced throughout the first ten rounds, beginning with hometown selection Branden Kline (pictured, copyright DiamondScape Baseball LLC), a Frederick native who has spent his collegiate career at UVA. The O's followed a more traditional approach to the draft by mixing-in some signability picks with some upside JuCo and high school selections. The net result, in my opinion, is a very solid collection of talent with five of the selections falling outside my evaluative comfort zone.

Our approach centered on an analysis of the draft class up top (players in consideration for selection at 1:4), the number of players we had rated as Day 1 talents but with strong enough college commitments to drop them in the draft, and an estimate as to how many "expensive" selections we might be able to afford (this, in particular, is heavily dependent on what Gausman ultimately signs for). We came out with the general idea that any top tier high school selections would have to be made early and a portion of the top 10 bonus allotment slots (rounds 1 to 10) would need to be inexpensive college seniors that would sign for around or under $100 thousand in order to free up a little more cash. The specific high schoolers available after Round 3 would determine whether we could grab one, two or three solid college picks in the mid-single digits. I'll post a piece tomorrow morning that mirrors this piece, but covers our shadow picks rather than the actual picks discussed below.

Here is a quick set of notes covering Baltimore's actual selections today rounds 2 to 10. We'll have more in-depth reports on these players, and some of those selected in rounds 11 to 40, between this week and next:

2nd Round, Branden Kline (rhp, University of Virginia)
As mentioned in our draft preview piece covering local talents, Kline made the jump from reliever to starter this year.  Prior to 2012, the righty utilized a high-effort but utilitarian wind-up, moving to a crouched set and delivery from the stretch. As is the case with many (most) UVA starters, Kline moved to a crouched approach in his wind-up this year, as well, with mixed results. Kline's low-90s fastball and power slider can miss bats, but his new crouched delivery, married with a high arm slot, regularly drives balls up and out of the zone and makes it difficult to spot his secondaries. If Baltimore is willing to break down and rebuild his mechanics, he has the raw talent to mold into a potential mid-rotation starter. Otherwise, he's likely destined for the pen, where he could top out as an 8th inning guy.

3rd Round, Adrian Marin (ss, Gulliver Prep. School, Miami, Fla.)
Marin, a University of Miami commit, likely profiles best as a second baseman or center fielder due to his straight line foot speed, average arm strength and below-average power.  Marin shows quick hands in the box but puts together inconsistent showings due to some quirks in his swing mechanics, including some dip in his eye level and a top-heavy cut that makes adjust to off-speed problematic at times. He's an excellent student with a chance to play for the hometown 'Canes, so he may require the full slot allotment to sign -- maybe a bit more.

4th Round, Christian Walker (1b, Univ. of South Carolina)
We discussed Walker in the local talents draft piece, as well, noting his slightly undersized stature for a first baseman and an offensive profile that skews hit tool over power. Walker was one of three players Jon identified in his "three outcomes" study for 2012 (if you ask him nicely, I'm sure he'd discuss it in more detail in the comments section or even a separate piece!). We know Walker understands the strikezone well and is battle tested in the SEC. What we don't know is how well his power tool will develop once he makes the switch to wood and starts squaring off against advanced pro pitching. Jon pegged the 4th Round as the target round for Walker, and while I overruled him for purposes of the Depot shadow draft, this is certainly a solid value pick for the veteran Gamecock middle-of-the-order bat.

5th Round, Colin Poche (lhp, Marcus HS (Flower Mound, Texas)
Poche was down in Jupiter last October with the MSL All-Star squad, gaining a degree of notoriety as a draft-eligible lefty that broke the 90-mph barrier. He's the type of recruit you feel good about as a college coach, lacking the "now" profile you expect to be poached by MLB clubs, but showing enough stuff to help you out in relief early on while eventually growing into a weekend starter role. Provided he signs, he could spend the remainder of the summer with the Gulf Coast rookie squad, tackling Aberdeen next year. Poche isn't likely to be a fast mover, there is solid projection in his body and stuff, and providedd a reasonable signing bonus he should be a nice addition to the lower-levels of the system.

6th Round, Lex Rutledge (lhp, Samford Univ.)
Rutledge caught my attention two summers ago as a relief arm invited to partake in the USA Baseball Collegiate National Team Trials. He was eventually cut from the squad before the final roster was set, but had the opportunity in scrimmage action to show a mid-90s fastball that bumped 97 mph and a hard low-80s 1-to-7 curve (which worked as a chase pitch but which he struggled to command). As a starter, Rutledge sees his velo drop to 88-92 mph range, and below-average control and command further complicates his future as a starter.

7th Round, Matt Price (rhp, Univ. of South Carolina)
A former power arm in the Gamecocks pen, Price has seen his velocity drop over the past two seasons, with his fastball generally a low-90s offering at this point that will still scrape 95 mph. He has thrown in many a high leverage situation for the back-to-back defending national champs, though his future at the professional level is more likely to be that of a low-leverage middle-reliever due to his current quality of stuff. His breaker is a tilty slider that can flash bite and counts as his second fringe above-average offering when paired with his fastball.

8th Round, Torsten Boss (3b/of, Michigan St. Univ.)
Boss isn't quite a "toolsy" player, though he flashes five of them throughout his game. While his 15% walk rake and .323/.443/.497 triple slash line (as of mid-May) jump out as impressive, his stats are buoyed by a heavy starter/reliever split, with Boss walking 24% of the time against relievers and triple-slashing .329/.505/.579 vs. an 8% walk rate and .319/.394/.442 triple-slash against starters. He also shows his pop almost exclusively against righties, with just 3 of his 20 extra base hits (as of mid-May) coming against southpaws. Making a name for himself with homers against St. John's Kyle Hansen and Texas A&M's Michael Wacha, Boss otherwise struggled some against elite pitching, striking out 22% of the time against arms that figured to go in the top 10 rounds, as compared to a 15% strikeout rate on the season. He is a coin-flip to stick at third, and should at minimum be able to provide a little bit of versatility between the hot corner and the outfield. 

9th Round, Brady Wagner (rhp, Grand Canyon Coll.)
Wagner, like Rutledge, is a low- to mid-90s power arm with a hard breaking ball a pension for periodic issues finding the strike zone. Also like Rutledge (and Kline), he has experience both in the pen and as a starter. Baltimore could run him out as a starter and see how far some mechanical tweaks can go in helping him to find some more consistency.

10th Round, Joel Hutter (ss, Dallas Baptist Univ.)
What is likely a cost-saving selection, Hutter is a senior middle-infielder with some outfield experience. As a pro, he likely profiles as a tweener without traditional speed for center field and what can be a fringy arm for the left side of the infield. He'll run into some balls at the plate, but profiles generally as a n org guy, offensively, with some swing-and-miss to him.

Camden Depot Shadow Draft selections (Rd 1 - 10)
As noted above, we went aggressive with high schoolers early and determined there to be room for two college juniors before switching over to easier signs (but also guys we liked).  Additionally, we tried to mix-in a local flavor, per directives of the O's front office. Jon lobbied hard for Christian Walker in the 4th, but was overruled due to my insistence on a higher upside high schooler in the first three rounds today.


Rd 1, Kevin Gausman (rhp, Lousiana St. Univ.)
Rd 2, Tanner Rahier (ss, Palm Desert HS, Palm Desert, Calif.)
Rd 3, Avery Romero (ss/3b, Menendez HS, St. Augustine, Fla.)
Rd 4, Ty Buttrey (rhp, Providence HS, Charlotte, N.C.)
Rd 5, Josh Elander (c/of, Texas Christian Univ.)
Rd 6, Lex Rutledge (lhp, Samford Univ.)
Rd 7, Jeremy Rathjen (of, Rice Univ.)
Rd 8 Zach Cooper (rhp, Central Michigan Univ.)
Rd 9, Michael Boyden (rhp, Univ. of Maryland)
Rd 10, Chris Kirsch (rhp, Lackawanna JC, Penn.)

Duquette wants to draft local? A list of local players for the 2012 Draft

Last fall, Dan Duquette mentioned that he had interest in building the team up with some local scouting.  The mid-Atlantic is not a hot bed of baseball prospects, but there are some interesting players from the area who are likely to be drafted.  I utilized Baseball America as a source for compiling the names and Nick has supplemented with comments below.

Delaware
Jamie Jarmon, OF, Indian River HS
Raw and athletic. Two sport player who lacks baseball experience. Ticketed for back-to-back defending national champs South Carolina as a part of a strong recruiting class that includes Ryan Ripken (son of Cal).

Maryland
Kevin Brady, RHP Clemson
Brady was an intriguing arm a couple years back coming out of Gaithersberg. After struggling with injuries throughout his career at Clemson, Brady may profile best as a reliever in spite of a workhorse body and three usuable pitches. His fastball plays to the mid-90s in shorter stints.

Josh Conway, RHP Coastal Carolina
Conway played HS ball at Smithsburg HS.  He will have to recover from Tommy John surgery before beginning his career.  Before the injury, he showed a mid-90s fastball and an above average slider. He is almost certainly a reliever as a pro, and a likely sign considering the timing of his injury.

New Jersey
Pat Light, RHP, Monmouth
Light was drafted late when he came out of Christian Brothers Academy.  He now figures to be a top three round pick.  Light utilizes a plus to plus-plus fastball, which he commands fairly well. Both his change-up and slider are workable pitches, though he gets a lot of value out of his slider off the merit of hitters chasing out of the zone. If he can't harness that pitch, he figures to ultimately land in the bullpen where his stuff should compare favorably with Andrew Miller.

Patrick Kivlehan, 3B, Rutgers 
After devoting four seasons to Rutgers football, Kivlehan gave baseball a shot and wound up taking the triple crown in the Big East.  He profiles as an outfielder as a pro, depsite playing third at Rutgers.  There is a chance for some above-average pop, though he has yet to be tested against advanced pitches or with wood.

Pennsylvania
Jared Price, RHP, Twin Valley HS
Price throws a high 80s-low 90s fastball and shows some handle for a curveball.  Inconsistent performance, a less-than-ideal frame, and limitations on spending this year under the new CBA will likely send Price to college (Maryland commit).

Joe DeCarlo, 3B, Garnet Valley HS
DeCarlo put on a show with the Midland Redskins down in Jupiter last fall, fixing his name prominently on the follow-lists of local area scouts.  His calling card is strength (with the arm and with the bat), but he is easily a potential above-average defender at third with good hands and excellent reactions (helping to negate his below-average footspeed.  If he's not signable in the 3rd to 6th round, he'll head to Georgia where he could develop into a top 100 prospect by 2015.

Chris Kirsch, LHP, Lackawanna JC
Kirsch is somewhat comparable to Texas prospect, and former Missouri Tiger, Nick Tepesch.  He is an intriguing prospect for scouts due to his four average pitches (fastball, curve, slider, and change) and solid frame, but area scouts come away from him questioning his desire to make the jump to pro ball. Since turning pro, Tepesch has alleviated those concerns and proven a potential steal as a double-digit pick.  Kirsch has the same potential, and could come off the board much earlier if he's willing to sign.

Christian Walker, 1B, South Carolina
Walker originally hails from Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic HS. He also is a player that was identified by my three trait criteria (contact, power, and strike zone judgement).  He is a good hitter with fringy power for a first baseman, and lacks ideal size for the position (though he handles the three-spot well).  He compares favorably to former Oriole and current Ranger Brandon Snyder (whose brother, Matt, is draft eligible this year out of Ole Miss).

Virginia
Eddie Butler, RHP, Radford
Butler lacks physicality and a consistent average pitch to pair with his above-average to plus fastball. The type of player that area scouts love to push as potential starters, reality most likely places Butler in the pen where he could grow into a groundball specialist.

Branden Kline, RHP, Virgina
Kline graduated from Thomas Johnson High School in 2009 and was a 6th-round selection by the Red Sox.  After showing promise out of the pen through his first two years at UVA, as well as this past summer with Team USA, Kline made the conversion to start in 2012.  He is a power arm with a lot going for him, including the ability to spin a plus slider and a long and lean frame scouts love to see. Unfortunately, he loses a lot of the benefits of that frame due to his crouched delivery and arm slot. A team with the patience to completely break him down and build him back up could get a mid-rotation starter for their efforts. He has the mental make-up to pitch in high-leverage situations out of the pen.

Damion Carroll, RHP, King George HS
Not scouted by Nick.  Low-90s fastball, reliever projection, per Baseball America.

Chris Taylor, SS, Virgina
Taylor is unlikely to hit enough to fill a regular spot on a Major League roster, though his versatility, speed, and soft hands could help him carve out a career as a utility option.  He should go somewhere in the late single-digits as a signable up-the-middle player with good feel for the game.

Steve Bruno, SS/3B, Virgina
Bruno profiles similar offensively to current Orioles prospect and former UVA middle-infielder Greg Miclat as a gap-to-gap bat with little in the way of power but a solid ability to find the ball with the barrel.  He lacks Miclat's speed and feel on the bases, but provides some value as a glove that fits all around the infield. He should come off the board after teammate Taylor could provide solid value as an organizational player with an outside shot at some value as an up-and-down utility play.


Blake Hauser, RHP, Virginia Commonwealth
A graduate from Manchester HS, Hauser shows a low-90s fastball and low-80s slider as his two-pitch combo.  He's a potential middle-reliever at the next level and could come off the board relatively early on Day 2 (Rounds 2-15) to a team looking to save some money.

Jack Wynkoop, LHP, Cape Henry HS, Virginia Beach
While a pitcher rather than a first baseman, Wynkoop shares Ryan Ripken's profile as a lanky and projectable South Carolina commit that could grow into a top draft talent with continued maturation and improvement in body control.  Right now, Wynkoop probably isn't ready for pro ball given his below-average velocity and limited secondary repertoire. As a pro he likely would be limited to multiple seasons in instruction and rookie ball. At SC, he will get a chance to grow in one of the top programs in the country with a prominent stage in the SEC to display his progress to pro scouts.

Josh Sborz, RHP, McLean HS
Sborz put together a nice start for Canes Baseball down in Jupiter, showcasing an upper-80s fastball bumping the low-90s and solid feel for a change-up and a mid-70s curve with 11-to-5 break.  This spring he showed much of the same, lining him up for a 3rd to 5th Round valuation on talent, and likely lower valuation when signability is taken into account.  If he heads to school at UVA he could develop into an early-round arm, and should also get the opportunity to swing the bat some and potentially log time at first base.

RC Orlan, LHP, North Carolina  
A graduate from Deep Run HS, Orlan is a potential lefty specialist with a below-average fastball that plays up due to his ability to create angles.  He may need to focus on his out-of-zone command, as pro hitters will have less trouble squaring-up his fringy pure stuff pounding the zone.

West Virginia
Korey Dunbar, C, Nitro HS
Not scouted by Nick: UNC commit.

2012 Draft Coverage: Finding 1:4 (Introduction)

This year the Baltimore Orioles will have the fourth overall pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft). As in years past, Camden Depot will roll out detailed scouting reports of the players we think should be considered for selection come June. Again as in years past, we will run a "shadow draft", whereby we make a selection for Baltimore for each slot in the first ten rounds.

Unique to our 2012 coverage, we'll be starting a weekly piece (most likely on Mondays) giving a current ranking of our 1:4 targets, and a summary of any noteworthy info relating to those players over the previous week. Below is our current "preference list", ranking the fifteen players we have selected as targets for the 1:4 pick. This list was based on scouting trips over the past nine months and some video review. One note is that Luc Giolito (pictured) was at the top of our off-season pref list, but has dropped down for now until we see the extent of the arm woes that have led to his shutting down for 6 - 8 weeks. Below the rankings we've also broken the list down by player type.

Current Preference List (March 22, 2012)
1. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
3. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida
4. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
5. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco
6. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
7. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
8. Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)
9. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
10. David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
11. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
12. Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
13. Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
14. Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
15. Walker Weickel, rhp/1b, Olympia HS (Fla.)

Breakdown
College Pitchers
Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.
Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.
Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

College Position Players
Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.
Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

High School Pitchers
Max Fried, lhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
Matt Smoral, lhp, Solon HS (Solon, Ohio)
Walker Weickel, rhp, Olympia HS (Orlando, Fla.)

High School Position Players
Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)
Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)
Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)
Carlos Correa, ss, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)
David Dahl, of, Oak Mountain HS (Birmingham, Ala.)
Stryker Trahan, c, Acadiana HS (Lafayette, La.)

I have seen all but Zimmer in person already (most multiple times), and will be seeing Zimmer and Appel this upcoming weekend in the Bay Area. Next weeked will be spent in Louisiana, where I plan to catch Gausman, Trahan and Cecchini. Full scouting reports will begin to roll out in April. Each report will contain player video. We strongly encourage reader involvement and hope to keep an ongoing dialogue in the discussion section of the weekly updates and the player reports. To whet your appetite, here is video of our current #1 target, Mark Appel, taken during his start this summer against Japan's collegiate national team:




We look forward to counting down with you to the draft, and the addition of the next Orioles top prospect. See you at the fields!

Scouting the 2012 Draft: Ryan Ripken

We begin our 2012 Draft coverage with a name with which all Orioles fans will be familiar. Ryan Ripken, son of Cal, is a senior first baseman at Gilman Academy and is elgible for the MLB Rule 4 Draft this June. Ryan is committed to the University of South Carolina, should he choose to forgo pro ball this summer.

Ryan Ripken / 1b / Gilman Academy (Baltimore, Md.)
Ht/Wt: 6-5/190
B/T: L/L
Age at Draft: 18y11m
College Commit: Univ. of South Carolina
Views: 4 (in person); 2 (video)

Grading Out
Now (Future)
Hit: 20 (40/45)
Power: 20 (50/55)
Speed: 25 (30)
Arm: 40 (50)
Defense: 30 (50/55)

*Description of 20/80 scout scale: The Scouting Scale works from 20-80, with 50 being Major League Average. The scale operates loosely on a bell curve, so the further you move from 50 the fewer grades you'll find among ML players (e.g. Justin Verlander's fastball, Mike Trout's speed, Mark Reynold's power, and Albert Pujols' hit tool would all be 80 grade). A 60 grade is sometimes referred to as plus and a 70 grade is sometimes referred to as plus-plus.

Physical Description
Ripken is a long and projectable athlete that should add a significant amount of strength over the next few years. He can struggle with body control, which is expected of a big-bodied high schooler in the midst of a heavy growth period. Despite some clunkiness in actions, he is clearly a solid athlete and shows excellent flexibility. A below average runner, he should pick-up his first step as his coordination and strength round out.

Defense
Ripken provides a large target for his infielders, reads throws well, and makes good use of his reach and flexibility. His range is fringy right now, but should improve as he matures and improves his first step. His hands are better than he will sometimes show. He could easily develop into an above-average glove at the three-spot. His arm strength is solid.

At Bat
Ripken has the offensive aptitude that you would expect of the son of a Hall of Famer. He has a good feel for the strikezone and a more advanced approach than many of his contemporaries. Ripken often does a solid job identifying secondaries and is generally ahead of the curve at picking-up pitcher patterns. His physicality, however, is currently lagging behind his mental approach. While Ripken delivers the barrel fairly well, he lacks the "now" strength to drive the ball. He struggles against better velocity -- particularly up in the zone -- and lacks the bat speed to compensate for late starts when he is looking off-speed. There is some ceiling here, including potential for a solid hit tool and above-average pop, but he is still a ways away from realizing that potential.

Summary
Ripken is currently best suited for college ball, where he'll have an opportunity to continue to refine his game while he finishes growing into his frame. Coach Tanner and the USC staff work well with young hitters, and it is easy to picture a scenario where two years under their tutelage (Ripken will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, due to his age) could result in his reemergence as an early-round prospect in 2014. Ripken has the make-up, bloodlines, and smarts to succeed as a pro -- he just needs his body to catch-up with the rest of him. Area scouts will check-in on him throughout the summer to gauge his physical progress, his bat speed and the development of his power. Barring a jump in physicality over the next three months, the new collective bargaining agreement (which limits teams' ability to give mid-six figure bonuses outside of the first few rounds) will likely make Ripken's decision as to whether to enroll at USC an easy one.

Video