Leadoff Hitters In The Buck Showalter Era

Colby Rasmus has served as the Orioles' leadoff hitter a couple times in spring training, including in yesterday's matchup against the Cardinals. While it's unexpected that Rasmus ends up as the O's regular leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching during the season -- Buck Showalter has said he's trying to get Rasmus more at-bats right now, and it's not a guarantee that Rasmus makes the team just yet -- it's far from impossible.

Rasmus has a career 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is good but not great. He also has an on-base percentage of just .318 against southpaws, and that's not what teams want out of their leadoff hitters. Without going too deep, I'll just note that it's now both sound logic and generally accepted that one of the best hitters on a team should bat in the top lineup spot.

Still, Showalter has a tendency to do... interesting things with his lineups. He'll bat someone fast there, just because, or simply try something based on match-ups or feel. Here's a list from the Baseball-Reference Play Index that shows O's players from 2011-2017 (Showalter's full seasons in Baltimore) with 10 or more plate appearances in the leadoff spot:

Results

Rk	Player	Split	From	To	G	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Nick Markakis	Batting 1st	2012	2014	236	1086	982	.294	.353	.402	.755
2	Adam Jones	Batting 1st	2014	2017	135	610	563	.281	.320	.471	.791
3	Nate McLouth	Batting 1st	2012	2013	131	605	539	.262	.336	.399	.735
4	Manny Machado	Batting 1st	2013	2016	120	541	487	.296	.362	.497	.859
5	Brian Roberts	Batting 1st	2011	2013	73	330	301	.213	.266	.332	.598
6	J.J. Hardy	Batting 1st	2011	2017	66	294	277	.267	.294	.523	.817
7	Joey Rickard	Batting 1st	2016	2017	71	289	267	.240	.289	.345	.634
8	Seth Smith	Batting 1st	2017	2017	56	235	212	.264	.332	.448	.780
9	Robert Andino	Batting 1st	2011	2012	46	207	188	.218	.276	.298	.574
10	Tim Beckham	Batting 1st	2017	2017	41	194	181	.265	.314	.448	.762
11	Nolan Reimold	Batting 1st	2011	2016	49	190	172	.250	.321	.453	.775
12	Alejandro De Aza	Batting 1st	2014	2015	22	95	89	.258	.305	.449	.755
13	Endy Chavez	Batting 1st	2012	2012	24	92	87	.149	.178	.207	.385
14	Matt Angle	Batting 1st	2011	2011	18	78	63	.190	.320	.286	.606
15	Xavier Avery	Batting 1st	2012	2012	15	70	63	.254	.309	.349	.658
16	Felix Pie	Batting 1st	2011	2011	13	47	46	.217	.234	.239	.473
17	Craig Gentry	Batting 1st	2017	2017	26	35	30	.200	.286	.333	.619
18	Gerardo Parra	Batting 1st	2015	2015	7	32	31	.161	.188	.194	.381
19	David Lough	Batting 1st	2014	2015	12	29	26	.154	.241	.308	.549
20	Everth Cabrera	Batting 1st	2015	2015	5	25	23	.304	.320	.304	.624
21	Hyun Soo Kim	Batting 1st	2016	2017	8	21	17	.176	.333	.176	.510
22	Austin Hays	Batting 1st	2017	2017	5	21	20	.150	.190	.150	.340
23	Jonathan Schoop	Batting 1st	2014	2017	5	18	16	.063	.167	.063	.229
24	Ryan Flaherty	Batting 1st	2012	2017	11	17	17	.176	.176	.529	.706
25	Trey Mancini	Batting 1st	2017	2017	5	13	13	.385	.385	.846	1.231
Rk	Player	Split	From	To	G	PA	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
26	Jemile Weeks	Batting 1st	2014	2014	3	13	11	.273	.273	.455	.727
27	Steve Pearce	Batting 1st	2012	2016	5	12	9	.556	.667	1.222	1.889

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/1/2018.

First, Endy Chavez! Felix Pie! Matt Angle! Xavier Avery! Everth Cabrera! Jemile Weeks! And second, don't forget that the 2011 Orioles were awful (69-93, -152 run differential) before things turned around suddenly in 2012.

It's easy to look back and laugh, but sometimes these decisions worked! In May of 2012, Ryan Flaherty led off a game against the Rangers with a home run. The next two batters, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis, also homered, as the O's became the first team to start a game with three straight homers since the Brewers in 2007. (The Diamondbacks also pulled off that feat against Max Scherzer, somehow, this past season.) That doesn't make it smart, necessarily, but it also shows some of the uninspiring options Showalter has had to choose from.

This isn't just a Showalter thing, of course; some teams occasionally use less than ideal options in the leadoff spot. Some teams just don't have high OBP players, while others do and at times choose to fill out the lineup card differently. But as teams become smarter, they're using better options in the first two spots in the lineup and refusing to put players there who make more outs.

Is Tim Beckham that guy for the Orioles? If he puts up anything close to the 130 wRC+ he posted after joining the O's last season, it'll be an easy decision to keep him there. But if he's not the guy, then who is? Perhaps Trey Mancini and his .338 OBP from last season? With so many high power, low OBP hitters filling the lineup, there just aren't that many good options. And that could open the door for Rasmus, or Alex Presley, or someone else.